Preview: Florida Gulf Coast

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison┬á (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Florida Gulf Coast: National Ranks
Category Michigan FGCU Advantage
Mich eFG% v. FGCU eFG% D 53 152 M
Mich eFG% D v. FGCU eFG% 82 295 MMM
Mich TO% v. FGCU Def TO% 9(!) 189 MM
Mich Def TO% v. FGCU TO% 204 338 MM
Mich OReb% v. FGCU DReb% 223 231 Push
Mich DReb% v. FGCU OReb% 280 231 F
Mich FTR v. FGCU Opp FTR 201 203 Push
Mich Opp FTR v. FGCU FTR 24 70 M
Mich AdjO v. FGCU AdjD 5(!) 169 MM
Mich AdjD v. FGCU AdjO 134 317 MM

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball
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2 Comments so far

  1. Steve says...

    I can’t get the stream to work. I’ve watched that friggin comercial a dozen times, but the game won’t play.

    Is anyone able to watch?

  2. Jacques Auef says...

    Mich is winning but playing like crap.

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