Ohio State Preview

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Ohio State Advantage
Mich eFG% v. OSU eFG% D 106 63 O
Mich eFG% D v. OSU eFG% 113 71 O
Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO% 3(!) 99 M
Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO% 151 65 O
Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb% 248 157 O
Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb% 196 265 M
Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR 302 7 OO
Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR 14 85 M
Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD 24 33
Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO 120 69 O

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Ohio State is a pretty good team, despite not getting a ton of love from the polls right now. Their offense depends on hitting their shots, and the defense is reliant on forcing opponents to miss their shots, as well as getting them to turn it over. Surprisingly, they don’t have a huge rebounding advantage over the Wolverines like I would have expected. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-64 Michigan win in a 62-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 59% chance of winning the game.

Ohio State has had a rash of injuries and player defections this year, making them somewhat thin (depth-wise) outside the paint. Inside the paint, they have 7-1 freshman BJ Mullens. If the Illinois game is any indication, Michigan should have plenty of trouble matching up with Ohio State’s men inside. Fortunately, the Buckeyes don’t have nearly the depth in big men (the next tallest player is 6-9, and Kyle Madsen gets very little playing time). The most-used players for Ohio State are Evan Turner and Jon Diebler, two sophomores who play nearly the entire game for OSU each time out.

The Wolverines face another tough battle, and hopefully the home-court advantage can propel them to a win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball
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1 Comment so far

  1. Steve says...

    Is it possible for Gibson to suck any worse? 2 games in a row he looked terrible.

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