Preview: Indiana

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Indiana tonight at 6:30 in Bloomington. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Indiana: National Ranks
Category Michigan Indiana Advantage
Mich eFG% v. IU eFG% D 75 263 MM
Mich eFG% D v. IU eFG% 100 240 MM
Mich TO% v. IU Def TO% 4(!) 33 M
Mich Def TO% v. IU TO% 186 341 MM
Mich OReb% v. IU DReb% 246 228 I
Mich DReb% v. IU OReb% 202 191 I
Mich FTR v. IU Opp FTR 166 116 I
Mich Opp FTR v. IU FTR 10 121 MM
Mich AdjO v. IU AdjD 13 98 M
Mich AdjD v. IU AdjO 185 290 MM

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Indiana is really, really bad this year. I’ll allow Spartans Weblog to bring the visual aid:Tempo-Free Aerial

IU’s defensive efficiency is near the bottom of the conference, but the story for the Hoosiers this year has been their utter ineptitude on offense. This is understandable when you have no players, and that is certainly the case for Indiana. In this particular game, Michigan has 100+ ranking-place advantages in 5 categories, and Indiana only leads the Wolverines in those areas you’d expect Michigan, and perimeter-oriented team, to be weak. Each team’s effective field goal percentage should play a significant role in determining who wins this game. The Wolverines hold huge advantages in this area on each end of the floor. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-62 Michigan victory, with the Hoosiers only given a 17% chance to steal a win.

There is no way to spin this game as anything other than a must-win for Michigan. Indiana is a sorry squad this year, and Tom Crean has some major rebuilding to do inside Assembly Hall. One key factor to keep in mind is the home-court advantage. The Wolverines have played only one true road game this year, a 5-point loss to Maryland. That was over a month ago, and Beilein’s crew will have to adjust to playing away from Crisler.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball
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2 Comments so far

  1. Ann Arbor 1879 says...

    Is this game on BTN or… ???

  2. Tim says...

    Yes. The game is on BTN.

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