Preview: UConn

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on UConn at 6PM tonight on ESPN. The game takes place on the Huskies’ home floor in Storrs.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Connecticut: National Ranks
Category Michigan UConn Advantage
Mich eFG% v. UConn eFG% D 149 6 CC
Mich eFG% D v. Uconn eFG% 180 44 CC
Mich TO% v. Uconn Def TO% 18 312 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. UConn TO% 158 29 CC
Mich OReb% v. UConn DReb% 251 61 CC
Mich DReb% v. UConn OReb% 146 13 CC
Mich FTR v. UConn Opp FTR 318 1 CCCC
Mich Opp FTR v. UConn FTR 17 4 C
Mich AdjO v. UConn AdjD 61 6 C
Mich AdjD v. UConn AdjO 97 5 C

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

I’ll keep this brief, since Michigan is going to get beaten down by the #1 team in the country. 1 fact of note: Michigan’s team profile improved in every single respect following the Penn State game except for offensive rebounding. They still have huge deficits to UConn in most of the Four Factors, though the discrepancies in overall offensive and defensive efficiency really aren’t all that bad.

KenPom predicts a 77-59 Huskies win, and I think it’ll be a little closer, but still something of a blowout.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball
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1 Comment so far

  1. Matt Hoelle says...

    The game was actually quite close and good as Tim predicted, especially in a tough place to play (I would know; I’ve been there). These KenPom stats are all well and good, but somewhat worthless without knowing the team’s personnel. Usually, the best shot-blocking teams also will send their opponents to the line, but not with Uconn obviously. I think a better stat, and way cooler, is that Uconn is leading the nation in blocked shots for the 8th season in a row.

    How about some more analysis of the Beilein switching zones (from 1-3-1 to 2-3) and how that lead to Uconn turnovers and a Michigan advantage early?

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