//

2009 Opponent Preview: Western Michigan

First look, obviously. More extensive previews coming as the season approaches. Highlighted players return for 2009.

Update: Pritchard redshirted his (first) junior season in 2007. He has 1 year of eligibility remaining.


Western Michigan Offense

QBs
5th-year senior Tim Hiller returns to helm the Western Michigan offense for the third consecutive year. He also got spot time as a freshman, but redshirted his sophomore year after an injury caused him to miss the entire season. Backup Drew Burdi is a more mobile option at QB, but has received only limited playing time so far in his career with the Broncos. Robert Arnheim has 1 collegiate pass to his name.

Statistics

Western QBs Passing 2008
Name Comp Att % Yds TD Int Yds/Att
Tim Hiller 339 522 64.94 3725 36 10 7.14
Drew Burdi 6 11 54.55 87 1 0 7.91
Robert Arnheim 0 1 0.00 0 0 0 0.00
Western Michigan QBs Rushing 2008
Name Rush Yds TD Yds/Rush
Drew Burdi 10 120 1 12.00
Tim Hiller 38 2 1 0.05

Analysis
At first glance, the Broncos seem to have two options that both strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans: an experienced, 5th-year QB who is a 2-time returning starter; a scrambler with passing ability that can gash a team through the air or on the ground. In all honesty, Wolverine fans should be scared about the ability of Hiller, as well as Burdi’s complementary skill set as a backup.

RBs
Brandon West is another 2-year starter coming back for his third go-round in the Bronco backfield for his senior year. The primary backup will be sophomore Aaron Winchester, who did the majority of his work last year towards the end of the season when West was injured. Glenis Thompson is a senior who got a pair of starts last year, but didn’t register more than 7 carries in any game. DeShazor is a walkon who will likely only contribute in garbage time.

Statistics

Western Michigan RBs Rushing 2008
Name Rush Yds TD Yds/Rush
Brandon West 204 1026 8 5.03
Aaron Winchester 69 272 0 3.94
Kirk Elsworth 12 68 0 5.67
Glenis Thompson 14 47 0 3.36
Jaron DeShazor 1 1 0 1.00
Western Michigan RBs Receiving 2009
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
Brandon West 38 280 3 7.37
Aaron Winchester 9 96 0 10.67
Kirk Elsworth 10 61 3 6.10

Analysis
West is actually a very capable running back, averaging 4.6 yards per carry in 2007, and over 5 yards per carry last year. He is also the biggest of the Bronco stable (pun entirely intended), checking in at a mere 5-10, 188 lbs. The rest of Western’s backs fall primarily in the “speedy little bastard” category, though most of them don’t have particularly great speed of note. With several returning producers at RB, they may lean a little more on the running game this year – so we might see the depth of the RB group when they visit Michigan Stadium

Receivers
The top 2 players depart for Western, along with their top tight end. Juan Nunez is a 6-footer who actually averaged the best yards per catch out of any of the players with an appreciable sample size. He’ll have to make the transition from 3rd option to the man that the defense will key on. Will he be able to maintain that big play ability? Though the top TE departs, then next two returning players after Nunez are tight ends. Senior Matt Stevens and junior Anthony Williams might be a good security blanket for Hiller, who will be looking for new players to fill the roles vacated by the departing players. The Broncos will really need some unexpected players to step up on the edges. Sophomore Deshon Lawrence might be that guy, for lack of other options. Caleb Clark was only a junior last year, but is not listed on the 2009 Bronco roster.

Statistics

Western Michigan Receivers 2008
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
Jamarko Simmons 104 1276 7 12.27
Schnieder Julien 59 712 6 12.07
Juan Nunez 57 701 7 12.30
Branden Ledbetter (TE) 45 464 6 10.31
Matt Stevens (TE) 6 93 2 15.50
Anthony Williams (TE) 2 28 0 14.00
Louis Delmas (DB) 1 19 0 19.00
Dervon Wallace (DB) 2 16 0 8.00
Caleb Clark 2 13 0 6.50
Deshon Lawrence 2 12 0 6.00
Austin Pritchard (LB) 2 2 2 1.00
Western Michigan Receivers Rushing 2008
Name Rush Yds TD Yds/Rush
Jamarko Simmons 1 1 0 1.00
Dervon Wallace (DB) 1 -2 0 -2.00

Analysis
The Broncos are seriously thin at receiver, which might prevent them from adequately taking advantage of their senior QB. With tight ends looking to be the strongest position, and a good running back group returning, play action passing might be a good option for the Broncos. They don’t have a big group of receivers to return to, so it seems as though teams may be able to key in on what few guys they do have in order to slow down the passing game.

Offensive Line
Lineup
The offensive line for the Broncos should be quite strong this year, with a number of returning starters. The tackle positions should be mostly locked down, with redshirt sophomore Anthony Parker, who started every game last year and was named all-MAC freshman, and Redshirt Junior Phillip Swanson, who made 13 starts last year, bookending the line. Redshirt senior Paul Wasikowski, redshirt junior Nick Clemens, and redshirt junior Nick Mitchell Manning the inside spots. The positions are a little flexible, obviously. Adding depth are redshirt sophomores Jonathan Jack and Lee Pathan. The only player the Broncos lost to graduation was Steve Ellingson.

Analysis
The OL should be strong for Western, with a lot of game and starting experience coming back. They may not be the biggest line Michigan will face, nor the most talented, but they certainly make up for it in experience. They should be able to run the ball well and protect the passer adequately.

Offensive Analysis
The Western offense returns some key pieces, mostly every important QB and almost every important RB. The receiving corps will be a serious question, and as mentioned above, I expect the tight ends to be some of the main receivers, especially early in the year before new wideouts are able to step up and prove themselves as playmakers. With a presumed strong running game and tight ends, play action is a likely bet for the Broncos scheme.


Western Michigan Defense

Defensive Line
Defensive end Zach Davidson and tackle Nick Varcadipane led the line in stops last year, but they’ll both be gone in 2009. Senior tackle Cody Cielinski will become the main man in the middle. He will likely accompanied by sophomore Drew Nowak or Chris Pyant, whoever os bigger. The other, who had previously been a tackle, may slide outside to take on a strongside responsibility, and junior Weston Peiffer, who had very limited playing time last year, will be expected to step up as a pass-rushing option.

Statistics

Western Michigan Defensive Line 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack
Zach Davidson 56 9.5 3.5
Nick Varcadipane 43 5.5 1.5
Cody Cielenski 36 10 4
Cory Flom 26 2 1
Greg Marshall 23 3.5 1.5
Drew Nowak 11 2 1
Chris Pyant 5 .5 .5
Grant Nemeth 2 0 0
Weston Peiffer 1 1 1

Analysis
This is a super-weak group, with almost no depth at (actually, no depth beyond the starters). They’ll rely on guys who haven’t played a down of college football yet to be the backups. With Michigan’s offensive strength looking to be the running game, with 5 returning offensive linemen and Brandon Minor, they should be able to exploit this group.

Linebackers
Like the line, the Bronco linebacking corps loses its top two tacklers. Senior Justin Braska will have to take a huge leap forward for the Broncos, becoming the cornerstone of the position group. Sophomore Mitch Zajac will be expected to contribute as a starter for Western, and there is NOTHING other than those guys, based on the current roster. Porter and Krasinski both had eligibility remaining after last year, but neither is listed on the current roster.

Statistics

Western Michigan Linebackers 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack Int
Austin Pritchard 86 12.5 2 0
Boston McCornell 72 3.5 1 1
Justin Braska 52 10.5 6.5 0
Dustin Duclo 35 3 0 0
Mitch Zajac 29 1.5 0 0
Harrison Porter 21 2.5 1 1
Dan Krasinski 3 0 0 0
Fernand Kashama 1 0 0 0

Analysis
Wow, unless they have a true sleeper stud that redshirted last year, or coming in for the 2009 recruiting class, the Broncos have next to nothing at the linebacker position. Braska is your classic big ‘backer, while Zajac is more of a speedster who can play in space. This thinness of this unit (a theme on the defense so far, no?) should add to Michigan’s ability to pound the ball.

Defensive Backs
Louis Delmas, an NFL second rounder, is gone. So is corner EJ Biggers, who was also drafted by the NFL. Let’s add insult to injury by removing CJ Wilson, who exhausted his eligibility without being selected by an NFL team. The starters are probably up in the air, because that’s a lot of replacing to do. Strong safety Mario Armstrong, the only returning starter, has his spot in the secondary locked down. Junior Jamail Berry will probably be the other safety, though he is also listed at strong. Josh Price, a sophomore, will man one of the corner positions, and senior Andy Dorcely might step up to be the other. The defensive backfield will probably have more quality depth than the other defensive areas, but quality of the starters themselves is in question.

Statistics

Western Michigan Defensive Backs 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack Int
Louis Delmas 111 4 0 4
CJ Wilson 70 1 0 3
Mario Armstrong 64 0 0 1
EJ Biggers 62 5 0 2
Londen Fryar 42 0 0 1
Desman Stephen 29 0 0 0
Josh Price 18 1 1 0
Jamail Berry 11 0 0 0
Andy Dorcely 4 0 0 0
Dervon Wallace 3 0 0 0
David Lewis 2 0 0 0
Scott Gajos 2 0 0 0
Ravelle Sadler 2 0 0 0
Keith Dixson 1 0 0 0

Analysis
Like all of the defensive positions, secondary will be a weak point for Western this year. Forgive me for making assumptions, but something tells me it’s not likely that the Broncos replace two NFL draftees with players of similar ability. If it was Ohio State, I might not make such an assumption, but Western is more geared towards hopefully getting lucky with a sleeper than recruiting can’t-miss prospects. The Broncos’ corners should be fairly weak, along with one of the safety positions.

Defensive Analysis
Wow. This is not going to be a good defense at any level. With Michigan’s presumed leaps forward on offense, they should be able to tear right through Western up and down the field. 5 returning starters on the OL should be able to pound the ball right through the weak DL and linebackers (though the Bronco DL should have good size, which is important to note as far as not being crushed off the ball). In the secondary, I assume Michigan will keep the throws fairly simple for Tate Forcier in his first live college action, probably with lots of play action and screens to keep the throws easy. He probably won’t be run all that much, either, just enough to get his feet wet, so to speak.


Western Michigan Special Teams


The Broncos return all their kicking specialists from last year. In the return game, they loses every punt returner of note, but RB Brandon West was their top kick returner.

Statistics

Western Michigan Kicking 2008
Name XPM XPA % FGM FGA Long %
John Potter 41 43 95.35 11 16 45 68.75
Western Michigan Punting 2008
Name Punt Yds Yds/Punt
Ben Armer 50 2032 40.64
Tim Balice 1 25 25.00

Analysis
Expect more of the same next year, with perhaps improvements from Potter, because he was a true freshman who improved over the course of last year.


Overall Analysis


Western should be a pretty darn good offensive team this year, though it remains to be seen how well they’ll respond to losing the most important pieces of their receiving corps. The run game should set up the pass with experienced backs and linemen, and Hiller will look to decrease usage some, but increase efficiency with easier passing situations. Defensively, however, the Broncos look like they might be a wreck, unless a miracle happens. I would expect this game to be something of a shootout, but with Michigan’s defense able to key on the run and the tight ends, and no proven threat on the boundaries for Western, they should be able to hold the Broncos.

Posted under Analysis, Football
Tags: ,

9 Comments so far

  1. matt brest says...

    I think you overlooked WMUs strongest player, Aaron Pritchard. He was 1st team All MAC last year at LB and is shown in the 2009 WMU Spring Football Guide. Although WMU’s defense will still be their weakness, Aaron should help a lot.

    IMO, the key for a Michigan win will be our running game. We must control the ball and the clock in order to provide enough offense to score consistently and to keep their offense off the field. Even with an improved QB this year, I think that will be the consistent 2009 theme for UM.

    Go Blue!
    Matt
    ’87 BSME

  2. Tim says...

    It’s Austin Pritchard, and what I’ve seen has his eligibility expired. I’ll do some double-checking.

  3. Alex says...

    Apparently you didnt bother to look in to any of the freshman coming in for WMU. They will most likely have 2 freshman WR contributing… both about 6’2 as well as a 6’5 TE.

    Arnheim is no longer a QB and played the last half of the season at WR.

    Maybe it is just because I follow the program… but that seemed to be a pretty lazy write up, missing a lot of information that is readily available.

  4. Tim says...

    Considering this was about proven commodities, no I didn’t. If you’re relying on freshman 2-stars to be important contributors to your team, you’d best have a verrry keen eye for talent or get verrry lucky.

  5. Markusr2007 says...

    Thanks for posting this. I thought this was a very thorough analysis. I was very worried about WMU’s offensive capabilities heading into this season, but didn’t realize their receiving corps and defnse was so depleted.

    Bill Cubit’s done some good things at WMU in recent years. As far as 2009 WMU recruits stepping up, man, I don’t know. Most Bronco recruits are 2-star (Scout) and ranked around 200th or not at all. The best players is a 3-star offensive tackle. Not exactly what the Dr. ordered this fall for WMU.

    I do find it interesting that last year WMU was the best passing team in the entire MAC (1st in yrdg) with Hiller, and one of the worst rushing teams (11th out of 13 MAC teams), but that this year the scenario might be reversed with greater emphasis on rushing and balance. This makes sense for Cubit to pursue. WMU should get better productivity this year rushing, and Hiller and TE’s will keep defenses honest.

    In WMU’s final game against Rice last year in the Texas Bowl, Rice QB Chase Clement shred the Broncos to ribbons, rushing for 72 yards and 1 rushing TD. Clements passed for over 300 yards, 3 TD throws, and the guy even caught a throw back pass for a TD.

    While WMU is going to be Forcier’s first collegiate game, I’m thinking given his skills, he could have a lot of success in this first outing.

  6. “In WMU’s final game against Rice last year in the Texas Bowl, Rice QB Chase Clement shred the Broncos to ribbons, rushing for 72 yards and 1 rushing TD. Clements passed for over 300 yards, 3 TD throws, and the guy even caught a throw back pass for a TD.”

    Just FYI, Rice’s passing game the last few seasons has been ridiculous in a good way. The fact they torched them is along the lines of being surprised Texas Tech racked up insane passing yards on Texas (but with lower talent levels). It’s not overly surprising given the talent both teams have.

  7. Tim says...

    I SMELL A HOUSTON HOMER

  8. Jarrett Dillard. Record setter. That is all.

  9. John says...

    The Broncos signed two 3 star transfer players: Chleb Ravenell and Ansel Ponder. Ponder enrolled in January and took part in spring drills. Bill Cubit called Ponder the best combination of size and speed and that he’s ever seen(impressive since Cubit coached Greg Jennings). Justin Braska isn’t a linebacker. He’s a defensive end(and penciled in as the starter at left defensive end). Doug Wiggins, the safety transfer from the University of Miami(FL, a former four star high school athlete offered scholarships by Florida and Michigan(he made an official visit to Michigan)) will likely start at Free Safety. He was listed as the starter on the spring depth chart. In short Western’s offense should be above average and its defense ok.

Leave a Comment

Name (required)

Email (required)

Website

Comments

More Blog Post