QBs

Wisconsin started last year with something of a quarterback controversy. Dustin Sherer eventually wrested the job away from Allan Evridge halfway through the year, and kept it until the end. Sherer will be a 5th-year senior in 2009, and redshirt junior Scott Tolzien will back him up. Youngsters Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr will provide depth.

Analysis

Sherer was the (very slightly) better passer of the two main guys last year, and if he knows from the beginning that he’ll be full-time starter this year, the situation will probably improve even more. Sherer has a lot of experience in the system, and the Badgers are known for having quarterbacks who are more manager than game-changer.

RBs

PJ Hill departs from the “fat Wisconsin running back” position, only to be replaced by John Clay. Clay was the team’s second-leading rusher in 2008 as a redshirt sophomore. He’ll be backed up by junior Zach Brown, with Bradie Ewing getting a couple carries. Incoming freshman Montee Ball will get some carries.

Analysis

Though Hill was Wisconsin’s leading rusher last year, Clay is widely regarded the better runner. As long as he can keep his weight down, he can be a pretty productive back. Michigan has routinely been able to stop the fat Wisconsin backs, having more trouble with the speedy guys, so Zach Brown might be a bit more of a danger to Michigan.

Receivers

5th-year senior Garrett Graham was Wisconsin’s leading receiver in the repeated absence of Travis Beckum, who is the only departing player from the Badgers; receiving corps. Junior David Gilreath, redshirt junior Isaac Anderson, and redshirt sophomore Nick Toon will likely be the primary wide receiver targets.

Analysis

Wisconsin has used the TE pretty well in the past couple years, and they’ve gotten used to using Graham instead of the perpetually-injured Travis Beckum. He should be a big piece of the puzzle this year. Toon was one of the surprises of the spring, and he may take on a bigger role in the offense this year. He’s the tall split end that’s a complement to the shorter, speedy Gilreath and Anderson.

Offensive Line

Lots of hits here. Guard Kraig Urbik was drafted in the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and tackle Andy Kemp and guard Eric VandenHeuvel are also gone from the front. Returning will be left tackle Gabe Carimi, a redshirt junior who missed part of last year with injury, center John Moffit, another redshirt junior, and redshirt sophomore tackle Josh Oglesby, who filled in for both VandenHeuvel and Carimi when they were injured. True Sophomore Jake Current may step in to play one of the guard spots, with redshirt junior Bill Nagy likely filling the other slot.

Analysis

The Badgers lost three starters on the front line, which will hurt any team. This is especially true when all three were signed by NFL teams, and one was a third-round pick. Still, the Badgers had injuries last year forcing their youngster to get some playing time, so they won’t exactly be stepping in completely green. Considering the Badgers’ history of turning out great offensive linemen, there will definitely be a step back in 2009, though maybe not as great as it seems.

Offensive Analysis

The Badgers lose a couple important, but likely replaceable pieces. With the QB situation a little more settled, and John Clay likely to be more than able to take over as the leading rusher, the offense could be able to move the ball a bit. The offensive line lost its best player in Craig Urbik, but the Badgers always seem to be able to plug in some new guy and have serious success running the ball. As per usual, they will be a run-run-play action team.

Wisconsin Defense

Defensive Line

Wisconsin loses a few of key players from the front line, with DE Matt Shaughnessy the most talented, going in the third round of the NFL draft. DT/DE Mike Newkirk and and DT Jason Chapman are also gone. Senior DT Dan Moore will return, joined by redshirt senior Jeff Stehle. Redshirt sophomore Louis Nzegwu will be one of the defensive ends, along with 5th-year O’Brien Schofield. The depth on DL isn’t exceptional, but it’s there.

Analysis

The DL was nicked by graduation, and the depth here might struggle to start the year. If Shaughnessy’s pass rush can be replicated without him on one end, and a penetrator in the middle, the defensive line will only take a slight step back. Still, a step back is probably in order.

Linebackers

Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy may not have led the Wisconsin linebacking corps in tackles, but they were certainly two of the most important pieces in this unit. Jaevery McFadden will play his 5th year alongside a pair of new starters. Culmer St. Jean and Erik Prather have the most experience, and the redshirt junior and 5th-year senior are likely the starters.

Analysis

McFadden had the most tackles on the team last year, but Levy was most definitely the team’s best linebacker. Replacing a 3rd-round pick and a free-agent signing will definitely be a significant blow to this unit. If the backups can contribute right away, don’t be shocked, as they’ve both been in the system for a while. However, they don’t have the same NFL hype that the outgoing players did.

Defensive Backs

The Badger secondary should be stacked. The team only loses Allen Langford, and though he was a good player, the experience that another year in the system and game time earned by the other players should improve their play in 2009. Redshirt junior Jay Valai returns at strong safety (with backup by 5th-year Aubrey Pleasant), and 5th-year Chris Maragos, a Western Michigan transfer, took over at free safety by the end of last year, replacing classmate Shane Carter. The corner positions will likely be manned by redshirt junior Niles Brinkley and redshirt sophomore Mario Goins.

Analysis

There is a ton of experience returning in the secondary for the Badgers, and a pretty good wealth of talent, as well. Several of the Badgers have started games at their positions, even the backups. This should be a very strong unit for the Badgers, and their pass defense, which was 24th in efficiency last year, could improve.

Defensive Analysis

The front lines for Wisconsin are weaker than the secondary, which looks like it will be obscenely good this year. If the pass rush can keep up without a few key pieces up front, opposing teams could have trouble moving the ball through the air. Fortunately for Michigan, the run game is their strength, and that should be the (relative) weakness of the Badger D.

Special Teams

Specialists Phillip Welch, a redshirt sophomore kicker, and Brad Nortman, a true sophomore punter, both return for Wisconsin.

Analysis

Welch was pretty good last year, and considering it was his freshman year, he could continue to improve. The case is the same for Nortman, though he was slightly below-average in the Big Ten in net punting last season.

Overall Analysis

The Badgers have some rebuilding to do on the front lines on both side of the ball. For a team that molds itself in the classic Big Ten model of running the ball and stopping the run, that could be a problem. However, most everywhere else looks to be a strength, with receivers on the offense and secondary on the defense being the crowning achievements. Will Wisconsin make a slight move away from the classic pounders to take advantage of team strengths? Given my opinion of Bret Bielema, I’m inclined to say no, but he can’t be that bad of a coach, right?

QBs

Curtis Painter has graduated (and how was being Mel Kiper’s top QB in the draft class of ‘09, Curtis?) and Justin Siller was kicked out of school for academic improprieties (cheating). That leaves Joey Elliott as the lone experienced QB on the Boilermaker roster. Walkon Chris Bennett was forced into action following a rash of injuries last year as well.

Analysis

Elliott was “meh” in his appearances last year, before he was knocked out for the season in the Northwestern game. He’ll have to improve if the Boilermakers want any chance of a good year in 2009.

RBs

Purdue’s leading rusher, Kory Sheets departs. However, that’s not as damaging as it looks, since he was supposed to split time with Jaycen Taylor last year, before Taylor missed the entire season with an injury. Redshirt senior Frank Halliburton will get some carries as well, along with sophomore Ralph Bolden. Incoming freshman Al-Terek McBurse enrolled in the winter semester, but did not participate in spring practice due to an academic issue.

Analysis

The dropoff at this position won’t be quite as precipitous as it seems just looking at last year’s yardage, but there still might be a step back. Taylor, despite 5 years in a college system, is still a pretty little guy, so the ball will have to be spread around a bit more. If McBurse’s academic issue is cleared up, he’s expected to contribute to the Boilermakers this year. The remaining players are mostly going to be for depth purposes, however.

Receivers

Dear lord, did the Boilermakers lose a ton of players here. Desmond Tardy and Greg Orton were the team’s most talented players last year, and both are gone. Brandon Whittington, Jerry Wasikowski, and Joe Whitest all got some legitimate playing time last year, as well. Stepping up to replace all those guys will be Keith Smith and Aaron Valentin, a junior and redshirt senior, respectively. Behind them, it’s anybody’s guess, with the players who have gotten a little action in the past likely to see increased roles this year.

Analysis

Tardy and Orton were by far the most talented Boilermakers last year, so losing them is tough.Losing so many other players may not seem like quite as big a deal to Purdue, since new coach Danny Hope is not expected to spread the field as much as Joe Tiller did in Purdue’s heyday. Smith and Valentin are both decent enough players, though I question Valentin’s yards/catch avergae with such a small sample size (he had a 57-yarder against Central Michigan, and a 79-yarder against Indiana – great plays or poor competition?).

Offensive Line

Tackle Sean Sester was supposed to be one of the stars of Purdue’s offense, but he was hurt for much of the year, and only played in 9 games. He’s now moved on, as has center Corey Benton. Garret Miller, a part-time player, has also graduated. Ken Plue, who started much of last year as a true freshman, returns at guard. Redshirt senior Zach Jones played at three different positions on the line last year, but will likely play right tackle this year. Redshirt senior Eric Hedstrom will play one of the guard positions. That leaves the tackle spot and center position vacated by Sester and Benton. True sophomore Dennis Kelly played in the last five games in 2008, and will probably start the season at offensive tackle. Junior Justin Pierce will be the other guard.

Analysis

This is a young line for the Boilermakers. They look to be starting two true sophomores, a true junior, and two redshirt seniors, one of whom is a former walkon. Unless some players can really come through as surprises, this should be a vulnerable unit for the Boilermakers. That doesn’t bode well for a team that was 85th in rushing offense and ceded 2 sacks per game last season, despite two additional senior starters.

Offensive Analysis

It’s hard to know exactly what the offensive scheme will look like under new headman Danny Hope. The conventional wisdom says he won’t spread it out quite as much. With weaknesses at QB, WR and offensive line, it could be a pretty bad year for the Purdue offense. If they still had a dual-threat QB like Siller, they might be able improvise a bit to create offense. As it is, they should be far less able to move the ball. I would say they’ll try to pound it out with a pretty good stable of backs, but a fairly weak offensive line might prevent them from doing that.

Purdue Defense

Defensive Line

The top two players along the defensive line return in junior end Ryan Kerrigan and redshirt senior tackle Mike Neal. However, end Ryan Baker and tackles Alex Magee (a third round pick in the NFL)nfl and Jermaine Guynn all have graduated from Purdue. Redshirt senior Keyon Brown will likely step up into a pass-rush role for the Boilers, with sophomores Gerald Gooden and Nickaro Golding providing some depth. Nick Mondek and Chris Cooke will likely both get time in the DT rotation.

Analysis

Since Purdue recruited so poorly towards the end of the Joe Tiller era, it’s going to be tough to replace a third-round pick on the defensive line. However, Kerrigan and Neal were the top two tacklers and sack masters on the Boilers’ defense. The question will be whether losing Magee in the middle makes the edge rush less easy to come by, especially after losing Ryan Baker as well.

Linebackers

When I originally looked at the NCAA’s stats page, Joe Holland was listed as a defensive back, which would have meant very, very few tackles for the Purdue LB corps. Even still, they didn’t have a ton of them, and nearly half are out the window with the departure of Anthony Heygood. Holland will have to step up as a leader in his sophomore year, and his classmate Chris Carlino will play an expanded role as well.

Analysis

Yikes, there are practically no bodies here for the first defense under head coach Danny Hope. Perhaps some of the freshmen who redshirted last year will step up, or perhaps a true freshman or two will earn his stripes. Either way, the pickings are super-slim in the LB corps. An injury to Holland or Carlino could be devastating.

Defensive Backs

Track athlete/football walkon Frank Duong is gone, but he’s the only departure from the Boilers’ secondary. 5th-year Torri Williams will return as a starting safety, fellow redshirt senior Brandon King will be s starting corner once more. David Pender will be the other starter at corner in his senior season. Dwight McClean will likely be the other starter at safety. Royce Adams has switched from corner to offense (I guess the coaches are confident in their corner depth), and Adam Wolf has made a similar move from safety. The depth isn’t hurting despite those position switches, especially at the safety position.

Analysis

The secondary will be the unquestioned strength of Purdue’s team, especially considering it was one of the few above-average units on last year’s team (33rd in opponents’ passing efficiency). With only one player departing, and the coaches confident enough to switch two defensive backs to wideout, expect good things from the secondary.

Defensive Analysis

The secondary should be strong. The front seven – eh, not so much. The gameplan is going to be pounding the ball, as the Boilers’ 93rd-ranked rush defense loses some pretty important pieces at the first two levels. Of course, that will not only allow teams to rack up yardage on the ground, but also open up the passing game. With less pressure on the quarterback and a starting safety gone, maybe opposing signal-callers will still be able to pass a bit.

Special Teams

Senior Chris Summers and Sophomore Carson Wiggs, who split time at both punter and kicker last year, before Summers settled into the punter role and Wiggs as the kicker, both return this fall for Purdue.

Analysis

Summers started off the year as the placekicker, and single-handedly lost the Oregon game by missing a makeable field goal at the end of regulation (he also missed on in overtime, but the Ducks scored a touchdown to render it moot). Wiggs took over and did a pretty good job, and Summers became the full-time punter. He wasn’t great at that spot either, but much better than he was as a field goal kicker.

Overall Analysis

Barring a miracle, the Danny Hope era at Purdue does not look like it will be getting off to a sterling start. The offense loses some of its biggest playmakers and a couple important linemen, and the defense’s front lines are decimated. If there’s one strong point of this team, it’s the defensive secondary. However, even they might struggle a bit with opponents able to pick their spots to pass very carefully. If teams can get an early lead on Purdue (and based on the Purdue offense, that shouldn’t be a tough task most times), they should be able to grind out wins.

Illinois Offense

QBs

Juice Williams returns for his senior year, after an up-and-down career so far. His backup, Eddie McGee, is a junior, and got extensive playing time in 2006.

Analysis

Williams has progressively gotten better over the course of his career. He was awful as a freshman, and good (when healthy) as a sophomore. As a junior, however, his inconsistency probably cost the Illini a game or two – and ultimately a trip to a bowl game. McGee has a different skill set than Williams, and is often considered the slightly better runner.

RBs

Daniel Dufrene returns as the starter for his senior campaign, and he’ll again be splitting time with sophomore Jason Ford. Fellow sophomore Mikel LeShoure will also get a number of carries. Sophomore Zach Becker will start at fullback once again.

Analysis

A year after losing Rashard Mendenhall, the Illini had a few players step up and platoon to fill the void. They didn’t match his production (6.4 ypc!), but they did move the ball on the ground. The mobile quarterback certainly helps open up running lanes for RBs, and the group should continue to progress. Aside from Dufrene, this was a very young unit, so the other players may have improved dramatically.

Receivers

Junior Arrelious Benn. Enough said. Oh, also enormous senior Jeff Cumberland, and talented senior TE Michael Hoomanawanui. Replacing Will Judson will be something of a task, but the Illini have a number of younger players ready to step up.

Analysis

The Illinois receiving corps could really start and end will Arrelious Benn. He’s so physically talented that it’s unfair. However, he only ended up catching 3 touchdown passes last year, which is at least partially due to Juice’s inconsistency. Hoomanawanui came in for some praise by television crews last year, and Cumberland is an enormous target who insists on remaining at wideout, despite his 6-5, 255-lb stature.

Offensive Line

Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald depart from the front lines at Illinois, and left tackle Fulton was drafted by the NFL. The aptly-named Eric Block will return for his fifth year, and he’ll man the center position. True sophomore Jeff Allen started at right tackle for most of last year, which is rather impressive if you ask me. Fellow sophomore Corey Allen also played last year as a true freshman, and he’s expected to be the starting left tackle. True senior Jon Asamoah and redshirt junior Randall Hunt will man the guard positions.

Analysis

Fulton was good enough to get drafted, so losing him will hurt, especially replacing him with a relatively-inexperienced Corey Allen. The Illini have a really young OL, as their bookends will both be true sophomores. The line should take a slight step back from last year, but the results might not show on the field if Juice’s consistency can improve.

Offensive Analysis

The key to this offense is Juice Williams. If he can perform like the guy who ripped Michigan’s defense to shreds last year, the Illini should be able to put astronomical totals on many teams. If he plays like the guy who led his team to an embarrassing defeat to Western Michigan in Ford Field, the offense might be hurting. Arrelious Benn’s health could be important as well. He was outstanding as a freshman despite a chronic shoulder injury, and was perhaps even better last year, except for the ball actually getting to him most of the time. The run game is option-based, so the young offensive line won’t be as much of a liability as it would be for some teams, but it could still hold the offense back a bit. Still with all the playmakers on this team, if they can perform to expectations, it should be a pretty good year.

Illinois Defense

Defensive Line

Will Davis and Derek Walker depart from the defensive end positions, and Davis was god enough to earn a spot in the 6th round of the NFL draft. Those two will likely be replaced by redshirt junior Clay Nurse and redshirt senior Doug Pilcher. At tackle, David Lindquist has graduated, but true junior Josh Brent will still be manning the middle. He’ll likely be joined by true sophomore Corey Liuget in the starting lineup.

Analysis

This is a position group that lost 3 of its 4 starters, one of whom was good enough to be selected in the NFL draft, and another of whom was just outside that range. A step back can be expected. The new defensive ends are not likely to be nearly as explosive as at least Davis. At tackle, David Lindquist had a bunch of tackles (rare for an interior lineman), so replacing his production might be something of a task. However, Liuget had good guru approval, and performed well in his playing time last year, so he might be able to perform comparably.

Linebackers

Brit Miller, best known for playing alongside the American Flag Tie Guy (J Leman) two years ago, has departed, and takes with him by far the most tackles on Illinois’s team. Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson also leave the corps, giving the Illini only one experienced player: Martez Wilson. Sophomore Russell Ellington and redshirt junior Dustin Jefferson were next on the team in tackles, but they were so far behind the top 4 players that their experience doesn’t give them a huge advantage over any of the other players on the roster.

Analysis

Wilson was stabbed in a bar over the winter, so his conditioning probably didn’t advance as much as he wanted over the off-season. That said, he already started out as a very physically-gifted player, so it shouldn’t be a huge hindrance. The knock on him has been undisciplined play, so as the new leader of the linebacking corps, he’s going to have to be able to bring some consistency to the second level. The rest of the players are rather inexperienced, so Wilson might need to have an All-Big Ten type of year for the Illini to succeed, unless someone is able to step up and surprise.

Defensive Backs

Corner Vontae Davis departed early for the NFL, and replacing a first-rounder at corner is going to be a tough task for the Illinois defense. Redshirt junior safety Travon Bellamy will probably be the new leader of the Illinois defense, along with true senior Donsay Hardeman, who finished with the third most tackles in the secondary, despite missing 4 full games. Junior Bo Flowers will provide depth there. At corner, Dere Hicks will become the #1 guy as a true senior. The other corner spot us up for grabs, as there are almost no experienced players on the roster. I would assume sophomore Tavon Wilson is the guy there.

Analysis

If the Illini can stay healthy, they should have a pretty good and experienced secondary, outside of the #2 corner. However, that could be an important position, as even with Vontae Davis last year the secondary was still subpar. Another year of experience should help, but the corner situation might be bordering on dire, unless one of the experienced safeties has the agility to play on the line of scrimmage.

Defensive Analysis

The Illini lost a lot on defense, and their two best players were both enough to make the NFL draft. The front seven was fairly decimated, and the secondary lost the player who was holding the whole thing together. Without a good pass rush, and without Vontae, the passing game could be a really serious achilles heel for this team. The linebacker situation also means it might not be particularly difficult to run on them, either, considering with seniors at linebacker and defensive line they were still well below average.

Special Teams

Placekicker Matt Eller was a redshirt freshman last year, and returns for another year booting field goals. Punter Anthony Santella will be a redshirt junior.

Analysis

Eller and Santella were both average last year, though Santella was probably a little less good, considering he was 8th in the Big Ten in punting. Eller actually seemed to be better on long attempts, and rounded into form over the course of the year. With another year of experience (and likely a better offense), both specialists could be in line to have better years.

Overall Analysis

Consistency is the name of the game with this Illinois team. If Juice can stay consistent, the offense will be capable of putting up some big numbers. On defense, they are likely to really struggle. The offense will have to carry this team, and give the defense some help. Regardless of any improvement in yardage totals or efficiency, the Illini could see an improvement in record, considering they had an unlucky string of games that they probably had no business losing (WMU, Minnesota, Northwestern).

QBs

Daryll Clark returns as a 5th-year senior with an additional year of prep school under his belt, so he’s been out of high school for 6 years. Dude’s experienced. His two primary backups, however, have both departed. Paul Cianciolo graduated (presumably to pursue his minor league baseball career) and Pat Devlin transferred after it was clear he would not be the Nittany Lions’ starter, even with Clark banged up late last season. In steps erstwhile Michigan commit Kevin Newsome, an early-enrolled true freshman to back up Clark.

Analysis

Clark is coming off an all-Big Ten year, and though he had a couple rough patches after being concussed in the Ohio State game, he is a heck of a QB, with a ton of experience. It’s the depth that kills PSU this year. Though Newsome enrolled early, the returns on his performances in spring practice were not so good. At this point, he can run much better than he can throw. If Clark were to go down, the Nittany Lion offense could become one-dimensional fairly quickly.

RBs

Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, junior and senior respectively, both return for Penn State. They were among the top rushers in a league that was full of them. Behind them, seemingly all the important backups return, though with the only experienced fullback departing in Dan Lawlor, there is a question about who will play the position (or if they’ll use one extensively at all).

Analysis

Both Royster and Green had exceptional years last year. Royster is the workhorse back, who gets the lion’s share of the carries, and Green is a change-of-pace speedy guy. He’s more apt to get the ball in space and make something happen for the offense. With nearly the entire OL gone, there is a question about how productive these two can continue to be.

Receivers

On top of Michael Robinson (and of course the suffocating defense), the three freshman wide receivers, Butler, Norwood, and Williams, were the stars of the surprise 2005 Orange Bowl team. They all depart, leaving Notably White junior Graham Zug as the leading returner, and likely the top WR in 2009. Joining him on the flank will be Brett Brackett. The tight end position is aespecially strong, with seniors Mickey Shuler and Andrew Quarless.

Analysis

Though the Nittany Lions surely have capable players stepping in, it’s going to be hard to replace the top 3 targets from last year, especially with the number of cretive ways the staff got the ball into Williams’s hands. If Quarless can stay out of trouble, I forsee a more TE-focused passing game in 2009, since there are two very capable players at the position, and both seniors. With the running game the likely focus of the offense, somebody like Zug or even Derek Moye will have to stretch the field and keep defenses honest. If Clark has enough time to find them downfield, their could still be some big plays in the passing game.

Offensive Line

From Penn State’s fairly awesome offensive line last year, three players were named all-Big Ten. Unfortunately, those three players are all gone. Stefen Wisniewski returns at a guard spot (though he’ll make the move to center), and right tackle Dennis Landolt is back for his senior year. The other three spots are up for grabs, with Lou Eliades penciled in at one of the guard spots. Redshirt sophomores Johhny Troutman and JB Walton will likely man the remaining tackle and guard spots, respectively.

Analysis

Losing three OL starters definitely hurts, especially when the three were named all-conference their senior year. Penn State has some serious re-working to do, with Wisniewski the only clear star on the line, though Landolt isn’t too far behind him, as a potential three-year starter. The other spots are all potential weaknesses, with youth and inexperience ruling the day.

Offensive Analysis

Losing the majority of the offensive line is going to hurt the run game, and also give Clark less time to pass it. With those considerations, Stephfon Green may take a few more carries away from Evan Royster this year, as Penn State may try to get the ball space to avoid the weak OL. With fewer playmakers on the edges (and with less time to throw it), the downfield passing game is likely to suffer somewhat. however, the tights ends could provide a nice security blanket for Clark, and Penn State will have to pick its chances to take shots downfield.

Penn State Defense

Defensive Line

Defensive ends Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans both declared early for the NFL draft, leaving the Nittany Lions seriously hurting at DE. However, they are stacked at DT, With Jared Odrick and Abe Koroma returning as starters. Junior Ollie Ogbu provides some depth of very high quality. At ends, the holes will likely be filled by Eric Latimore, who is just a sophomore, and his classmate Jack Crawford.

Analysis

Evans’s early departure (and subsequent non-drafted status) leaves two questions: does Penn State not get hurt as badly by losing someone early if he wasn’t even good enough to be drafted? OR Was he that much better than the backups that he saw himself as an NFL player? Like most things, it’s probably somewhere in between. Jack Crawford, despite getting very little playing time last year (behind Maybin, Evans, and Josh Gaines who can blame him?), is expected to be the next superstar pass rusher for PSU. In the middle, the Nittany Lions have quality starters, as well as a good third optino in the form of Ollie Ogbu.

Linebackers

Only Tyrell Sales departs from the traditionally-stacked Penn State linebacking corps, and junior Navorro Bowman and senior Josh Hull will be the returning starters. Something tells me the Nittany Lions aren’t sweating that third LB spot, however, as Sean Lee returns from an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of 2008. All of the depth players also return for Penn State.

Analysis

The starters should be rockin’ as usual, since Lee was an All-Big Ten performer (some publications named him an All-American) as a junior, and Bowman took home some honors of his own last year. Even if somebody goes down, there are enough experienced players to fill in adequately, if not become stars themselves.

Defensive Backs

At long last, we come to a serious, serious weakness with the PSU defense. The entire starting backfield departs, along with a depth player. Safeties Anthony Scirotto and Mark Rubin are gone, likely to be replaced by sophomore Drew Astorino and junior Cedric Jeffries. Corners Tony Davis and Lydell Sargent will be replaced by AJ Wallace and Knowledge Timmons. The Nittany Lions also took a huge DB class in 2009, so don’t be surprised to see some freshmen on the field.

Analysis

Wallace and Timmons actually seemed to be on paths to stardom, playing key backup roles on a Nittany Lions defense in 2006 that seemed to have them poised to be multi-year starters. However, that never came to fruition, but it does mean they are plenty experienced coming into their senior years. At safety, Anthony Scirotto (when he wasn’t busy rounding up a posse, obvs) developed into a playmaker in the backfield, and Mark Rubin was good enough to be picked up by an NFL team. Replacing them will be something of a task, though Astorino has impressed in backup duty before.

Defensive Analysis

This will be a down-ish year for the Nittany Lions defense, especially in terms of pass defense. They lose the biggest pieces of their pass rush, along with all four defensive backs. QBs should have slightly more time to find receivers who should be slightly more open this year. At this point in the year, Michigan’s QB situation should be hammered out enough that the coaches will let whoever it is (likely Tate) throw the ball downfield a little bit. The inside rush doesn’t look to be quite as viable an offensive strategy – but then it didn’t look too good last year either, and Brandon Minor ran for 117 yards on 5.1 per carry.

Special Teams

Penn State’s all-time leading scorer departs in Kevin Kelly, and he had developed into a pretty darn good kicker by the time he graduated. Junior Colin Wagner got a couple chances to kick last year, and he’ll probably take over full-time in ‘09. Jeremy Boone returns for his senior year to punt in 2009.

Analysis

Boone showed off a pretty good leg last year, and though he’ll be getting more work this year, it probably means that he’ll be booming more, instead of trying to sit them down inside the 25. Losing Kelly hurts, as he was a 4-year starter, but at least Wagner hasn’t missed a field goal for Penn State yet, right?

Overall Analysis

Both offense and defense should take a step back (I think even bigger than a lot of experts think). The Nittany Lions have certainly emerged from the dark ages though, and will be near the top of the conference again this year, even if it’s only because the conference seems to be somewhat down. They should tear through lesser competition (read: entire non-conference schedule), and play it about even with the teams at the top of the Big Ten.

Listen Here.

Returning experience has been brought up as an indicator of possible team success, and Michigan is among the teams with the highest number of returning starts along the offensive line (as is Notre Dame). However, most non-Michigan fans that I’ve seen looking at Michigan so far this off-season have said something along the lines of “They might be a better OL next year, but they sucked in 2008, so how much better can they be?” That may be the case, but it’s certainly worth exploring the assumption that the Wolverine offensive line was crap in 2008.

Improvement over the Year

The Michigan offensive line may have indeed started out poorly in 2008. They rushed for fewer yards than the opponents’ average allowed in 5 of the first 8 games, even though they were playing teams with relatively easy schedules like Utah, Miami, and Wisconsin (against whom Michigan would have had an awful rushing day if not for a surprise 65-yarder by Steven Threet). However, there’s certainly evidence that, after a rough couple games to start out the year, the rushing game started to click for Michigan.

That chart can be displayed in graphical form below. Note that more of the good rush defenses they faced were towards the back end of the schedule – and they still managed to beat the average for each of those teams. Save the MSU game, the Wolverines beat the opponent’s average in each game over the second half of the season.

With many players who weren’t expected to ever contribute in meaningful gametime (Bryant Nowicki), or at least not in 2008 (David Molk), the offensive line still managed to be better than average, with strength of opponents’ defenses taken into account.

More Competition

Of course, there’s a reason that some of those players who were forced into action in 2008 were not expected to ever contribute in starting roles for the Wolverines. Add in a class of freshmen that redshirted in 2008 because they weren’t physically ready to play, despite good guru rankings (4* OG RIcky Barnum) or performance in practice (2* OT Patrick Omameh). Add in those players, and even if they don’t contribute on the field, their presence in practice pushes other players to work harder to keep their starting spots. The best player between Mark Ortman and nobody is definitely Mark Ortman. The best player between Mark Ortman and Patrick Omameh might still be the same Mark Ortman, but that’s the minimum. It’s more likely to be a better Mark Ortman from being pushed in practice, or even Omameh.

When you take into account that the Michigan offensive line faced a number of injuries last year, having more players certainly helps in this respect as well. Using the example above, if Mark Ortman goes down and there’s no backup, the team has to play someone who really has no place being a contributor. If Mark Ortman goes down and Patrick Omameh is nipping his heels on the depth chart, the dropoff is going to be much less noticeable.

Improved QB Play

The offensive line is one unit on an offensive machine that must all work in concert to achieve the maximum result. If other parts of the machine are faulty, the offensive line won’t look as good, simply because the offense isn’t producing. Quarterback play in 2008 was, to put it quite bluntly, a liability for Michigan. Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan each had moments of brilliance (games against Penn State and Minnesota, respectively), but did at least their fair share of contributing to the offensive struggles in 2008.

The quarterbacks couldn’t throw particularly well, which allowed opposing safeties to come into the box to play the run. If Michigan had been able to stretch the field deep with the pass, there would have been more open running lanes. Coupled with that idea is the fact that Michigan’s scheme requires the quarterback to be able to run. Since neither Threet nor Sheridan was particularly mobile, defenses were able to key on the running back exclusively. This contributed to poor results for Michigan.

Of course, this section of the argument centers on the idea (belief? hope?) that Michigan’s quarterback play in 2009 will be better than it was in 2008. That hope falls on the shoulders of one Robert Tate Forcier. While he may not be The Savior of Michigan Football, his high school play and rankings, along with his performance in the spring game have given Michigan fans hope.

Better in ‘09?

Outside sources whose job it is to cover the Big Ten (albeit poorly) think that the Michigan OL should be improved this year. So, as I’ve hopefully demonstrated, not only was the Michigan offensive line not the huge liability over the entire course of 2008  that it’s often made out to be (despite some of the players forced into service), but it should continue to improve in the offseason as the players who will contribute in 2009 will have a year of experience under their belts, a lot more competition in practice, and a more complete offensive picture around them. Don’t expect greatness from the offensive line in 2009, but they should certainly help the offense get back on track.

Eastern Michigan Offense

Quarterbacks

Andy Schmitt seems like he’s been around forever, probably because he’ll be entering his 4th year as a starter for the Eagles (he split with Tyler Jones his first couple years, though Jones was a wideout last year). Kyle McMahon will be Schmitt’s main backup. Williams was granted a medical redshirt last year, though he played in 3 games.

Analysis

Despite his vast experience, Schmitt isn’t particularly successful at the QB position. He’ll probably retain his position by virtue of that experience, but it seems that, as McMahon and Williams gain some experience, they might be better QBs in the future for the Eagles. Early in 2009, however, it’ll probably be Schmitt once more.

Running Backs

Terrence Blevins returns to Eastern Michigan for his senior season, and he brings all of his backups from last year with him. Priest and Welch will probably get slightly fewer carries than they did last year, as Dominique Sherer, who missed all but the first game last year with an injury, returns to the crowded EMU backfield.

Analysis

Blevins is something of a bruiser, running 6-1+ and more than 240 pounds. Priest and Welch are more of scatback-types, around 5-9 and 180 pounds each. The coaching staff will probably figure out ways to utilize their differing talents, and Blevins will get the majority of the up-the-middle beating. Of course, Michigan’s DL amnd LBs are somewhat raw, so there may be yards available in the middle of the field.

Receivers

Finally, we find a position at which the Eagles lost seom talent from 2008. Jacory Stone, the team’s leading receiver, is back, but the next two receiving options, converted QB Tyler Jones and TE Jeff DeLuc, are both gone. Marvon Sanders will continue to play a slot role for the Eagles, and Dontayo Gage will man the other outside starting position in his senior year.

Analysis

The Eagles aren’t particularly deep at the wide receiver position, as they lost 2 of their top 3 performers from last year. However, there is plenty of room for new contributors to step up. Lots of players got at least a bit of playing time last year, and they’ll play bigger roles in ‘09. The Eagles don’t have prototypical size on the outside (Stone and Gage are under 6-0), and so they probably will focus more on getting players in space than trying to go deep.

Offensive Line

Lineup

TJ Lang was the only important starter to graduate, though fellow seniors Chris Larkins and Ross Peterson also got a bit of playing time. Peterson will be back for his 5th year, and hopes to move into a more prominent role after playing in only one game last year. Sophomores Bridger Bouche and Derek Gotham are returning starters as juniors, and now-senior Eric Davis will be a returning starter as well. Darrell Davis-Budanauro and Dan DeMaster will also try to move into the starting rotation.

Analysis

The Eagles lose only one important contributor in TJ Lang, though he was a 4th-round pick (something that is very rare for a program like Eastern). The rest of the linemen return, except for spot contributor Larkins and another player who didn’t get any playing time. The Eagles had middle-of-the-pack rushing offense and sacks allowed last year, though each of those might take a small step back without the rare NFL draftee on the line in Ypsilanti.

Offensive Analysis

The Eagles are pretty experienced on offense, returning the entire backfield from last year, and some important contributors on the line and in the receiving corps. Considering that Eastern was actually in the top-25 in the nation in total offense last year, they should be able to continue improving this year. Of course, that ranking last year was achieved playing a MAC schedule, along with nearly 650 yards against 1-AA Indiana State. Still, the Eagle offense is nothing to sleep on, especially with most offensive linemen returning.

Eastern Michigan Defense

Defensive Line

Brad Ohrman was the star of the Eastern Michigan defensive line last year as a redshirt freshman, and will look to continue rushing the passer in his sophomore season. Javon Reese, the other defensive end for Eastern,  had some success last year and will likely keep his starting job. Redshirt Sophomore Brandon Slater will continue his starting role as a defensive tackle, and Ryan Kuhlman may step into the other starting spot, if Tyler Palsrok can’t do it.

Analysis

The Eagles have a decent amount of experience on defensive line, despite losing starter Josh Hunt. The one thing that they don’t have is size. If you’re starting a 6-5, 265-pound defensive tackle, and defensive ends who are probably better suited to be linebackers, you might have trouble stopping the run. Fortunately for the Wolverines, with an experienced offensive line and Brandon Minor, there is reason to expect to good power running game . The lighter D-Ends may be better at chasing down Tate Forcier on the QB keepers that he’s likely to run, but pounding up the middle with Minor should be a fairly effective gameplan.

Linebackers

4-year-starter and star Daniel Holtzclaw, who was the heart of the EMU defense for what seem like forever, is gone. Fortunately for Eastern, they return just about everyone else of note, and will have players slide over to cover the gap he leaves. Senior Andre Hatchett will be the anchor of the unit, and he’ll be joined by fellow senior Brandon Downs (unless his spring move to defensive end is permanent) and one of Tim Fort and Herb Waits. If Downs is now a defensive lineman, expect both of those two to start.

Analysis

The loss of Holtzclaw is big, but the fact that the Eagles return everyone of note, and perhaps are strong enough at linebacker to be moving players down to the defensive line, means that this unit shouldn’t be hurting too badly. Fort is a little-ish linebacker, with more of safety size. Of course, that means Waits, at 5-10 and 180 pounds, is more like corner-sized. Like DL, this unit should be susceptible to Michigan’s power run game.

Defensive Backs

The Eagles lose 3 of their top 4 defensive backs, so they’ll be filling some major needs here with unproven players. Taking into account that the lone returning starter, Jermaine Jenkins, may be moving to linebacker, and Eastern is likely looking at a pretty tough year in the defensive secondary. Ryan Downard will man one safety spot, and Kevin Long will probably be the other. Nate Wilson will probably be a starting corner, along with senior Chris May.

Analysis

As Mentioned above, the Eagles have few proven players, and should struggle in the secondary this year. The one thing they have going is that most of their interceptions from last year came from returning players. Of course, interceptions are somewhat random, but there is a playmaking aspect to the secondary.

Defensive Analysis

The EMU defense wasn’t good last year (this should be obvious, considering the top-25 offense and 3-9 season). They were bad against the rush and awful against the pass. Considering the personnel uncertainties at this point in the year, they should be in for another tough year. Michigan should mostly grind this one out on the ground, but take advantage of opportunities through the air and in the short passing game.

Special Teams

Placekicker Joe Carithers, a JuCo transfer last year, will return to kick in ‘09. Zach Johnson and Patrick Treppa split punting duties last year. Johnson will be back for his 5th year, and Treppa will be a junior this fall. Lots of kicking options for the Eagles.

Analysis

The kicking game and punting game were both around average last year, with the punts not being quite as good. Returning all three kicking specialists, the Eagles should be able to improve in all respects this year.

Overall Analysis

Eastern was pretty good on offense last year, and awful on defense. That trend should continue this year, as they return most key offensive contributors, and lose some important pieces on defense. Eastern should be one of the weaker oponents all around that Michigan plays this fall.

Notre Dame Offense

QBs
It’s unclear whether Evan Sharpley will return for his redshirt senior year, since he’s bigger into the baseball than football, in my recollection. Fear not though, incoming freshman Dayne Crist is expected to be the new 5-year Heisman winner for the Irish, and he might end up being the backup over Sharpley.

Statistics

Analysis
Clausen took a big leap forward last year (partially a product of a functional-ish offense), and if he continues that, he might finally live up to about a third of the hype he got coming out of high school. If he gets hurt, however, it’ll be either a true freshman (Crist) or a guy who has never participated in spring practice because he’s busy playing baseball (Sharpley) backing his up.

RBs
Like many positions on this team, the Irish return everyone of note at the running back position. Expect Gray to get a little more action this year, as he’ll no longer be a true freshman. Allen and Hughes will likely still carry the load, however.

Statistics

Analysis
This is a definite position of strength for the Irish – at least as much as it can be, since they’ve run the ball pretty inconsistently ever since Weis has been around, and much more so in the past couple years. How much of that is offensive line play, and how much should be on the backs? We’ll see.

Receivers
Golden Tate was a star-in-the-making last year, and he’ll certainly start all of 2009. His best fit might be at the slot in 3-wide (or 4-wide) sets, giving other players a chance to step up on the outside as well. Floyd is a big reeiver in the Braylon mold, and Rudolph will try to bring some playmaking back to the tight end position, which the Irish haven’t had consistently since Anthony Fasano left.

Statistics

Analysis
Tate is a great deep threat, as Michigan fans are all too aware. The other guys were good last year, but not particularly exciting. Caveat: This was a very young unit last year, and with another year of experience under their belts, they should be able to do more in the offense.

Offensive Line

Lineup
Paul Duncan, a fifth-year senior, is expected to start at left tackle, after taking an injury redshirt last year. He should be backed up by highly-touted and very-ugly junior Matt Romine. At left guard, 5th-year senior Eric Olsen will start, with redshirt sophomore Andrew Nuss behind him. At center, redshirt junior Dan Wenger will be backed up by Braxton Cave. Chris Stewart, a redshirt junior, will be right guard, with Mike & Mike spawn Mike GOlic Jr. moving from center to back him up. At right tackle, junior Sam Young, who has been awful in each of his previous campaigns, despite lofty #1-overall-recruit status, will be spelled by Lane Clelland.

Analysis
The Irish offensive line has been crap for the past couple years. They were slightly better last year, and Notre ame has canned the offensive line coach in an attempt to make things at least adequate. They return several starters, and there is no excuse (not that there was last year, and there was only a limited one the previous year) for yet another terrible performance. Paul Duncan struggled at LT before being replaced (an injury expedited this move) last year.

Offensive Analysis
The Notre Dame offense finally has some experience after the past couple years oscillating between terrible and mediocre. Still, you have to wonder exactly how shrewd Weis is, since he’s supposedly an offensive genius, and his teams have mostly been utter crap the past two years. Spare me the “Willingham’s last two classes sucked” mantra as well. Weis’s 3-8 year was with players from HIS recruiting classes that would have been juniors at the time. Sounds like his first 2-3 recruiting classes must not have been all that great either. For someone whose motto is “no excuses,” making excuses seems to be all that Weis does. If Clausen can make another step forward in ‘09 (and, sadly, Weis’s track record implies that he will), the Irish offense should be able to move the ball fairly well.

Notre Dame Defense

Defensive Line
This all depends on whether the Irish make up their mind with regards to the 4-3 v. 3-4 debate. With Tenuta likely gaining clout within the staff (and with good reason – he’s a bigname coordinator), I would expect the 3-4. Pat Kuntz and Justin Brown are both gone, and Ethan Johnson will step up to fill one of the DE spots full-time. He’s put on a ton of weight (Michigan wanted him as a 4-3 DE coming out of high school , when he weighed around 240), and Irish fans are hoping he’ll be able to occupy a couple gaps. Ian Williams and Morrice Richardson should be the other starters. Behind them, there is scary little depth.

Statistics

Analysis
If the starters can’t step up into full-time roles, the Irish DL could be in trouble. This is especially troubling in the 3-4 defense, where the DL is absolutely vital to keeping the playmaking linebackers unblocked. Still, the starters should be adequate, if not better. Johnson excelled at getting to the QB last year, so it’ll be interesting to see how he is utilized in ‘09.

Linebackers
Maurice Crum is gone, but the Irish had plenty of linebackers get some experience and playing time last year. Brian Smith and Darius Fleming will play big roles for the defense, along with Kerry Neal. Toryan Smith and Steve Quinn should compete to be the 4th linebacker starting for the Irish. Incoming freshman Manti Te’o is the most exciting player (at least based on guru ratings), so expect him to play as well.

Statistics

Analysis
Crum wasn’t so much a star as a guy put in position to make plays and making them. None of the replacement players are flashy either, but they should be able to step in and make the plays that Crum did. That said, they won’t do anything that makes you say “wow,” either. They’ll just be a group getting the job done. Te’o brings the flair some, and he may leave on a Mormon mission, so don’t be surprised if the Irish play him early, to get as much as they can out of the guy.

Defensive Backs
The Irish lose Davis Bruton, who was a pretty good player at one of the safety positions. Harrison Smith will replace him, and Kyle McCarthy will return at the other safety spot. Raeshon McNeil will return at one corner position, and Robert Blanton was a pseudo-starter at the other spot by the end of the year, so he’ll probably man the other position. Terrail Lambert, the player he is replacing, was oft-maligned by Irish fans, so I don’t think they’ll lament his departure, except in terms of depth.

Statistics

Analysis
McCarthy is a safety in the “hey look we have a white safety” Tom Zbikowski mold, and he’s similarly… adequate. Losing Bruton could be a pretty big hit for the Irish, as he was their best ballhawk, in addition to being the guy who made a lot of plays for the Irish. Harrison Smith was more of a designated blitzer than a true safty often last year (think Brandon Harrison), so he might struggle to make a transition to playing deep. The corners should be decent, but the depth there is not great.

Defensive Analysis
The 3-4, assuming the Irish plan to use it as their identity full-time now, really relies on defensive linemen to occupy the offensive line, leaving the linebackers free to make plays. In that light, losing 2 defensive linemen is a pretty huge question mark, especially when the leading tackler at linebacker is gone. Another interesting note is that the linebacking corps didn’t make a ton of plays behind the line of scrimmage, which is one thing that the 3-4 defense is designed to allow them to do. Is that a scheme matter or just a lack of good enough bodies? If they switch back the the 4-3 fulltime, they still are very weak along the defensive line, but the linebackers are less of an issue. The secondary should be pretty good, though without a ton of depth. It seems as though Michigan’s run-game strength should be able to run the ball fairly well against the Irish. Will it be enough?

Special Teams

Punter Eric Maust returns, as does kicker Brandon Walker.

Statistics

Analysis
Walker was money on extra points last year, but boy, is that field goal percentage scary. He doesn’t have a great excuse either, as it was his second year as the starter (he went 6/12 as a freshman). He has the leg, nailing a 48-yarder last year, he’s just frighteningly inconsistent. In fact, that led, in part, to the Irish’s demise against GERG last year, as he missed 3(!) of his 6(!) field goal attempts.

Overall Analysis

The Irish return enough talented players to take a huge leap forward in 2009 – though we were saying the same thing last year. This is a definite make-or-break year for Weis, and if he can’t win with this team, it just shows that he isn’t cut out to be a head coach at the college level. The Irish will be strong on offense, which should really drive this team. The question remains: which was the real Irish offense, the one we saw against BC or the one we saw against Hawaii? I’d lean more towards BC, since the Warriors had a pitiful defense last year.

What is going on

According to Jim Stefani, Michigan has as many as 130 offers to high school prospects outstanding thus far. Many of these, however, might be from kids that they don’t really want to commit. According to Jim Stefani, “In a sense, many Michigan ‘offers’ are not really firm offers but more or less strong indications of interest by Michigan.  Take that for what you will, but it is how many schools are now approaching recruiting.  Look at the DB who wanted to verbal to U-M last week [Travis Williams] but was told to wait.” Florida, a school that uses a similar technique in throwing around a lot of offers, had a similar situation, and they had to tell a defensive back outright that the offer he had been given was not “committable.” It appears as though the main point of contention here, then, is what an offer really means.

Shouldn’t an offer, by definition, be “committable?” Isn’t that, after all, what an offer is? Wolv54 offered a hypothesis in the comments from the previous post:

The only potential problem the shotgun approach creates is that you have a finite number of schollies and you have to slow play some guys waiting for the higher ranked guys make their decisions. I would compare it to trying to get a prom date; whereas you ask the hottest girl you know and hope she says but if not, you can always take that girl that plays in the band, right?

Michigan seems to be offering both the “hottest girl” and the “band girl,” and hoping they can get the less desirable option to wait for the hotter one before making a decision. However, with a Michigan offer now just meaning that the Wolverines have strong interest in a kid, the techniques might have to be adjusted. According to Stefani, “they need to be careful that they get the right kids to commit of those 130. Believe me, even though a kid has been offered does not mean that Michigan wants him to commit right away (or, perhaps, ever).”

So why do they offer guys without actually wanting them to commit? This hasn’t always worked out, as people (like Travis Williams) try to commit, without the staff wanting it. That can lead to one of the problems that Michigan fans fear, according to Michigan4204,

I mean damn dude, were beating out schools like TCU, Tulsa, SMU, and Baylor for some of these recruits. Players used to come to Michigan because they produced pro-level talent. You have to have that talent first of all when you arrive on campus, and half of RR recruits simply don’t have that talent.

There are certainly ways out of this (and schools like florida use them as well), but it’s not always the cleanest break, as Stefani points out, “It backfires when a kid wants to commit and the verbal is not accepted or commits and then a few months later Michigan stops contact.  That is because it will upset the prospect and, more importantly, his high school coach.  If the prospects is from a program loaded with D-I talent every year it could definitely hurt.” Michigan seems to be willing to risk this.

The Contrast with Ohio State

Ohio State, as mentioned above, is using a recruiting method that seems to be diametrically opposed to that of Rich Rodriguez and staff. Jim Tressel has given out very few offers, and has many fewer commits than Michigan, though most of their commits are more highly-rated than some of Michigan’s guys. Like Michigan has its reasons for the current recruiting strategy, Ohio State also has reasons for theirs. They already have a deep talent base, and this year, they have very few scholarships to hand out. Stefani’s take:

The longer a school waits to offer, the more time it has to evaluate prospects and decide who they want to offer.  With schools in the midst of May evaluation, combines going on every weekend and summer camps coming up in June, the Ohio State coaches will have a LOT more info at hand when it comes to making their offer decisions than the school that have offered many prospects early based on sophomore year camp/combine performances and junior film.

The Buckeyes also give themselves another advantage: “many of the elite players like to wait things out, which only helps the schools who have not picked up too many early verbals.” Of course, Michigan will wait on top-top guys who have interest, but does accepting a lot of early verbals limit their ability to do so? Probably.

As shown above, Michigan fans aren’t exactly unanimously enthusiastic about the new approach. Michigan4204 was the most harsh in the comments of the previous post, using the now-old adage “Just because it worked in the Big East doesn’t mean it’ll work in the Big Ten. Trust me I hope it does, but I’m pessimistic.” When it was pointed out that there is no reason to expect any different result simply on a different conference, he was quick to point out the talent difference between the Big Ten and Big East, which, unfortunately for his argument, seems to ring a little hollow.

So, yeah. That argument certainly doesn’t hold water. Complaining about Rodriguez’s tactics on the basis of a talent difference between conferences is bogus. Of course, that doesn’t stop ontblue from agreeing with him:

Tend to agree with Michigan4204. You can take RR’s 3/4 star guys and I’ll take the USC/Florida/Suckeyes 4/5 star guys and we’ll see how things stack up in 5 years. By the way, since when did adding a marginal guy ever add to depth? It just adds another cheerleader.

Obviously, Rich and staff think the commits that they take will be guys who are able to contribute, or they likely wouldn’t waste their time. As bouje noted, “Who are the players that are really lighting it up in spring practices? Vincent Smith 3* out of Florida. He can obviously pick the 3* recruits.”

The reasons for this approach

So why does Michigan have to recruit the way they are? For one thing, they’ll probably have a lot of scholarships to fill, unlike the Buckeyes. “[L]ast year Ohio State signed a full class of 25, so they have limited schollies to hand out this year and are being very selective,” Stefani said. “On the other hand, after expected attrition Michigan is in a position to sign between 22 and 25 kids this coming year, so the Wolverines have a lot more flexibility when it comes to making early offers.” The early offers also help Michigan get their foot in the door with some guys:

Being aggressive with their early offers means that Michigan gets on a prospect’s radar earlier than those schools that have not offered.  the old adage ‘the early bird catches the worm’ applies here.  Moreover, actually picking up early verbals gets the whole process rolling as they can market their “great” (haha, excuse me) class to other prospects, as can the kids who have already committed.  They can now tell a lot of the Ohio kids, we love you but Ohio State doesn’t.  that carries some weight.

The early offers also mean that the class fills up quickly, as pointed out by Derrick, “Wouldn’t this approach force some kids to make a decision before all the offers were gone? If a kid really wants to play for michigan or any school he knows there are only so many offers available and he should be proactive in making a commitment.” Still, fans aren’t necessarily all on board with this approach, as sebaskrator said, “I’m willing to give RR the benefit of the doubt for now. Has has been able to get pretty far finding some gems before. That said, if he is able to juggle commitments around for someone he’d like more later, great.” It’s an endorsement, sure, but I’d say that’s far from ringing.

The Future

So, when Michigan’s talent base is built up to where it used to be, at least with the types of players that Rodriguez wants, will we see this strategy continue? It’s highly likely, though a school like Florida, which has had several top-tier classes in a row now, continues to use it, as AC1997 points out “I find it interesting how Urban Myer is offering everyone and their brother too, being from Utah he had the same problem that Rich Rod did (and probably worse).” The key thing that needs to happen before Michigan can audible the recruiting strategy is to show results on the field, according to Stefani, “First and foremost,once Michigan starts winning again it will become a magnet for national kids and be able to hold off on offering second-tier kids too early.” Ohio State obviously doesn’t have this problem right now, as he points out:

Ohio State is a top-tier national program that has gone to a couple consecutive BCS championship games.  They are an elite school that a LOT of kids want to play for, be they in-state kids or national kids… They can afford to wait on a lot of in-state kids because they know that they can get them later in the recruiting timeline if they finish second on some of their top national targets.  Michigan, on the other hand, is in a rare rebuilding mode and is not longer a “hot” school with national prospects.

In the future, once Michigan (hopefully) starts having on-field success again, this argument will all become moot.

There are still benefits to Michigan’s technique, as Stefani says “The risks [for an approach like OSU] are that by waiting too long to offer a prospects you have ‘bigger fish to fry’ you will lose out on him to another school (e.g. Devin Gardner to Michigan).  Once prospects are offered bythe Buckeyes, they will often have to do a ‘catch-up’ job in showing them the love.” However, It seems that Michigan will likely never go from the extreme that they’re currently occupying all the way to Ohio State’s, wherein they offer very few prospects early. In the end, a happy medium is probably most desired. AC1997 probably sums it up best: “Maybe he feels that 3-9 means he has to do that.” In another year 3-9, hopefully, will no longer be an issue.

Update: Pritchard redshirted his (first) junior season in 2007. He has 1 year of eligibility remaining.

Western Michigan Offense

QBs
5th-year senior Tim Hiller returns to helm the Western Michigan offense for the third consecutive year. He also got spot time as a freshman, but redshirted his sophomore year after an injury caused him to miss the entire season. Backup Drew Burdi is a more mobile option at QB, but has received only limited playing time so far in his career with the Broncos. Robert Arnheim has 1 collegiate pass to his name.

Statistics

Analysis
At first glance, the Broncos seem to have two options that both strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans: an experienced, 5th-year QB who is a 2-time returning starter; a scrambler with passing ability that can gash a team through the air or on the ground. In all honesty, Wolverine fans should be scared about the ability of Hiller, as well as Burdi’s complementary skill set as a backup.

RBs
Brandon West is another 2-year starter coming back for his third go-round in the Bronco backfield for his senior year. The primary backup will be sophomore Aaron Winchester, who did the majority of his work last year towards the end of the season when West was injured. Glenis Thompson is a senior who got a pair of starts last year, but didn’t register more than 7 carries in any game. DeShazor is a walkon who will likely only contribute in garbage time.

Statistics

Analysis
West is actually a very capable running back, averaging 4.6 yards per carry in 2007, and over 5 yards per carry last year. He is also the biggest of the Bronco stable (pun entirely intended), checking in at a mere 5-10, 188 lbs. The rest of Western’s backs fall primarily in the “speedy little bastard” category, though most of them don’t have particularly great speed of note. With several returning producers at RB, they may lean a little more on the running game this year – so we might see the depth of the RB group when they visit Michigan Stadium

Receivers
The top 2 players depart for Western, along with their top tight end. Juan Nunez is a 6-footer who actually averaged the best yards per catch out of any of the players with an appreciable sample size. He’ll have to make the transition from 3rd option to the man that the defense will key on. Will he be able to maintain that big play ability? Though the top TE departs, then next two returning players after Nunez are tight ends. Senior Matt Stevens and junior Anthony Williams might be a good security blanket for Hiller, who will be looking for new players to fill the roles vacated by the departing players. The Broncos will really need some unexpected players to step up on the edges. Sophomore Deshon Lawrence might be that guy, for lack of other options. Caleb Clark was only a junior last year, but is not listed on the 2009 Bronco roster.

Statistics

Analysis
The Broncos are seriously thin at receiver, which might prevent them from adequately taking advantage of their senior QB. With tight ends looking to be the strongest position, and a good running back group returning, play action passing might be a good option for the Broncos. They don’t have a big group of receivers to return to, so it seems as though teams may be able to key in on what few guys they do have in order to slow down the passing game.

Offensive Line
Lineup
The offensive line for the Broncos should be quite strong this year, with a number of returning starters. The tackle positions should be mostly locked down, with redshirt sophomore Anthony Parker, who started every game last year and was named all-MAC freshman, and Redshirt Junior Phillip Swanson, who made 13 starts last year, bookending the line. Redshirt senior Paul Wasikowski, redshirt junior Nick Clemens, and redshirt junior Nick Mitchell Manning the inside spots. The positions are a little flexible, obviously. Adding depth are redshirt sophomores Jonathan Jack and Lee Pathan. The only player the Broncos lost to graduation was Steve Ellingson.

Analysis
The OL should be strong for Western, with a lot of game and starting experience coming back. They may not be the biggest line Michigan will face, nor the most talented, but they certainly make up for it in experience. They should be able to run the ball well and protect the passer adequately.

Offensive Analysis
The Western offense returns some key pieces, mostly every important QB and almost every important RB. The receiving corps will be a serious question, and as mentioned above, I expect the tight ends to be some of the main receivers, especially early in the year before new wideouts are able to step up and prove themselves as playmakers. With a presumed strong running game and tight ends, play action is a likely bet for the Broncos scheme.

Western Michigan Defense

Defensive Line
Defensive end Zach Davidson and tackle Nick Varcadipane led the line in stops last year, but they’ll both be gone in 2009. Senior tackle Cody Cielinski will become the main man in the middle. He will likely accompanied by sophomore Drew Nowak or Chris Pyant, whoever os bigger. The other, who had previously been a tackle, may slide outside to take on a strongside responsibility, and junior Weston Peiffer, who had very limited playing time last year, will be expected to step up as a pass-rushing option.

Statistics

Analysis
This is a super-weak group, with almost no depth at (actually, no depth beyond the starters). They’ll rely on guys who haven’t played a down of college football yet to be the backups. With Michigan’s offensive strength looking to be the running game, with 5 returning offensive linemen and Brandon Minor, they should be able to exploit this group.

Linebackers
Like the line, the Bronco linebacking corps loses its top two tacklers. Senior Justin Braska will have to take a huge leap forward for the Broncos, becoming the cornerstone of the position group. Sophomore Mitch Zajac will be expected to contribute as a starter for Western, and there is NOTHING other than those guys, based on the current roster. Porter and Krasinski both had eligibility remaining after last year, but neither is listed on the current roster.

Statistics

Analysis
Wow, unless they have a true sleeper stud that redshirted last year, or coming in for the 2009 recruiting class, the Broncos have next to nothing at the linebacker position. Braska is your classic big ‘backer, while Zajac is more of a speedster who can play in space. This thinness of this unit (a theme on the defense so far, no?) should add to Michigan’s ability to pound the ball.

Defensive Backs
Louis Delmas, an NFL second rounder, is gone. So is corner EJ Biggers, who was also drafted by the NFL. Let’s add insult to injury by removing CJ Wilson, who exhausted his eligibility without being selected by an NFL team. The starters are probably up in the air, because that’s a lot of replacing to do. Strong safety Mario Armstrong, the only returning starter, has his spot in the secondary locked down. Junior Jamail Berry will probably be the other safety, though he is also listed at strong. Josh Price, a sophomore, will man one of the corner positions, and senior Andy Dorcely might step up to be the other. The defensive backfield will probably have more quality depth than the other defensive areas, but quality of the starters themselves is in question.

Statistics

Analysis
Like all of the defensive positions, secondary will be a weak point for Western this year. Forgive me for making assumptions, but something tells me it’s not likely that the Broncos replace two NFL draftees with players of similar ability. If it was Ohio State, I might not make such an assumption, but Western is more geared towards hopefully getting lucky with a sleeper than recruiting can’t-miss prospects. The Broncos’ corners should be fairly weak, along with one of the safety positions.

Defensive Analysis
Wow. This is not going to be a good defense at any level. With Michigan’s presumed leaps forward on offense, they should be able to tear right through Western up and down the field. 5 returning starters on the OL should be able to pound the ball right through the weak DL and linebackers (though the Bronco DL should have good size, which is important to note as far as not being crushed off the ball). In the secondary, I assume Michigan will keep the throws fairly simple for Tate Forcier in his first live college action, probably with lots of play action and screens to keep the throws easy. He probably won’t be run all that much, either, just enough to get his feet wet, so to speak.

Western Michigan Special Teams

The Broncos return all their kicking specialists from last year. In the return game, they loses every punt returner of note, but RB Brandon West was their top kick returner.

Statistics

Analysis
Expect more of the same next year, with perhaps improvements from Potter, because he was a true freshman who improved over the course of last year.

Overall Analysis

Western should be a pretty darn good offensive team this year, though it remains to be seen how well they’ll respond to losing the most important pieces of their receiving corps. The run game should set up the pass with experienced backs and linemen, and Hiller will look to decrease usage some, but increase efficiency with easier passing situations. Defensively, however, the Broncos look like they might be a wreck, unless a miracle happens. I would expect this game to be something of a shootout, but with Michigan’s defense able to key on the run and the tight ends, and no proven threat on the boundaries for Western, they should be able to hold the Broncos.

Speaking of recruiting — in this case the negative variety — check out this quote in the Palm Beach Post from Pahokee receiver De’Joshua Johnson.

“I dropped Florida and West Virginia because of the spread offense,” Johnson said. “I don’t want to play in the spread offense. I’ve seen how it affected receivers in the NFL draft.”

Johnson is reportedly leaning to Florida State and is considering Tennessee.

For his part, Pat Dooley has a decent and brief retort, though it comes off as Florida-homer rebuttal, rather than rebutting the actual claims themselves:

He might want to check his facts.

Didn’t Percy Harvin go in the first round? Chad Jackson? Meyer has had five receivers drafted from Florida during his tenure (six if you count Cornelius Ingram), the most for any school in the nation. FSU hasn’t had a first-round skill player in seven years and two receivers taken in the draft during Meyer’s tenure. Tennessee has had three during the same span.

This is a good start, but it doesn’t really hit the point at the very crux of this matter: You are what you are. Percy Harvin didn’t get drafted where he did because of the spread offense, he got drafted because he has Size X and Skill Set Y, which the NFL interprets as NFL Potential Z. Harvin has had Size X and Skill Set Y at his disposal, and would have had them regardless of where he went to college (we can debate the minor-ish point of a different strength coach at some other school helping Harvin achieve his potential to a different degree, but that’s outside of the discussion of offense – though I’d contend that some spread schemes demand a better strength coach).

The main things that an offensive scheme will affect are:

1. Production. Depending on the type of spread, a receiver may play a larger or smaller role in the offense, affecting production. One of the the things that the NFL might look at is “Well, he has X and Y, but his production hasn’t matched that. Does he have a good excuse for this, or does he not bring it on game day?” Spread offenses are even more creative in terms of ways to get receivers the ball, in Harvin/Johnson’s specific cases.
2. Preparation. Sure, a college QB who runs exclusively from the shotgun won’t be quite as ready to play right away in the NFL, and a receiver might run fewer or different routes, and have simpler reads of defenses playing in a spread offense. These players don’t come to the NFL ready to compete on day 1, perhaps. However, I’ll let Mike Leach take this one:

“I only need a three-hour window. I’ll have a great clinic for all the NFL coaches who are so horrible that they can’t teach a guy to take a snap under center and go backwards.”

Yeah, so Mike Leach is awesome, and an offensive scheme doesn’t have a huge effect on where a player is drafted (and oddly, this is especially true for receivers, whose responsibilities probably change the least out of anyone on the offense with a spread v. pro-style offense).

Let’s take a look at every receiver drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft. I’ll vaguely lump their college offensive schemes into “spread” and “pro-style.” This may seem a bit simplistic at first, but then, isn’t the criticism of the spread offense writ large simplistic itself?

Take a look at that! 13 Receivers from spread offenses and 17 from pro-style offenses were selected, with 4 from 1-AA teams, which I didn’t include because 1) I don’t know what type of offense most 1-AA schools run, and 2) If they’re taking a guy from a 1-AA school, offensive scheme is probably not on the forefront of NFL GMs’ decisions. Considering that more schools run a pro-style offense (particularly in power conferences, from which most NFL players are likely to come), that’s not bad at all. In the first round, the same number of players from each offensive type (3 apiece). When you consider that some schools that I placed in the “pro style” category also have some elements of spread offenses, such as Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon State, it’s a complete wash, at worst. And I guess that brings me back to my main point, which is not that the spread is inherently better for a wide receiver prospect’s chances of making it to the NFL, but rather than the offensive scheme on the whole is irrelevant.

So what’s the course of action? Obviously, a 17-year-old kid didn’t come up with this (bogus) assertion by himself. No, based on reputation, and the schools entering and exiting De’Joshua’s list, this almost certainly comes from one Lane Monte Kiffin. Of course, do I expect Rich Rodriguez to bore a kid to death with charts and whatnot? Probably not, but dispelling a meme, using whatever evidence is available, will certainly help.

Western Michigan
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 MAC)
Key losses: S Louis Delmas, LB Austin Pritchard, WR Jamarko Simmons
Key returning players: QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West
Projection: Same. Sure, teams lose players to the NFL every year, but it’s not fair to the Broncos (nor would it be to basically any MAC team) to assume they’ll be able to replace a second-round pick in the secondary. However, the offense should really continue trucking behind the QB play of Tim Hiller. The Broncos should be about the same as they were last year, though they’ll rely even more heavily on a high-flying offense to make up for a much weaker defense.

Notre Dame
2008 Record: 7-6 (0-1 Syracuse)
Key losses: WR David Grimes, S David Bruton
Key returning players: QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Armando Allen, WR Golden Tate
Projection: Up. Based on roster composition alone, the Irish should be pretty rockin’ this year. One impoortant caveat: you could say that about the last two years as well, and they were somewhere between terrible and mediocre over each of the previous two seasons. Is Charlie Weis just one big, fat FAIL, or will he start to get the talent he has assembled to perform? There’s no excuse (lol book title/disingenuous motto) for the Irish to not beat up on most of their schedule this year.

Eastern Michigan
2008 Record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)
Key losses: RB Terrence Blevins, WR Tyler Jones, LB Daniel Holtzclaw, S Jacob Wyatt
Key returning players: QB Andy Schmitt, WR Jacory Stone, LB Andre Hatchett
Projection: Up. The Eagles return some key pieces, though they also lose some important ones, the upgrade at the head coaching position appears to be a substantial one. Eastern was terrible last year, save the upset of Central Michigan in their final game of the year, and even anything approaching competency would be a leap in the right direction.

Indiana
2008 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Marcus Thigpen
Key returning players: QB Ben Chappell, QB/WR/? Kellen Lewis, WR/CB Ray Fisher
Projection: Same. You can tell the Indiana coaching staff is really grasping at straws in an effort to not get fired at the end of this year. They’re moving key players around (2nd-leading receiver Ray Fisher to corner, best offensive weapon Kellen Lewis all over the field, etc.), and completely revamping their schemes (reports say they’ve almost exclusively worked out of the pistol this spring). If it doesn’t work, Bill Lynch and co. are probably going to get the axe.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)
Key losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, S Otis Wiley
Key returning players: LB Greg Jones, WR Mark Dell
Projection: Down. The Spartans were beneficiaries of a bad Big Ten and some good luck last year. They were more like a 7-6 team than the 9-4 that they actually went. Take away 3 of their 4 most important players (the fourth is Jones), and they should be worse. Take away that luck, and they’re just a team. Adam Rittenberg will still predict that they win the National Championship.

Iowa
2008 Record: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Shonn Greene, DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul,
Key returning players: WR Andy Brodell, LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, QB Ricky Stanzi
Projection: Same. The Hawkeyes lose arguably their three most important players in Greene (no, Rittenberg, you can’t just baselessly say “I think Jewel Hampton will be at least as good as they guy who won the Doak Walker Award”) and the defensive tackles. However, they upgrade slightly at almost every other position, and assuming they can stay healthier than they have in the past couple years, they should be about as good as they were in ‘08. Of course last year, they were something of an anti-MSU, and lost a couple games they shouldn’t have. The Hawkeyes will be about the same quality of team, but the record may improve.

Delaware State
2008 Record: 5-6 (5-3 MEAC)
Key losses: QB Vashon Winton, RBs Chris Strother and Kareem Jones, LB Kevin Conner
Key returning players: DB Avery Grant, WR Laronne Moore
Projection: Down, down down. For a team that wasn’t even good to begin with, losing 3 of your top 5 tacklers, your 4-year starter at QB, and your top 3 running backs can be little other than a recipe for disaster. Delaware State is a true 1-AA cupcake, and will be even worse this year than they were in 2008.

Penn State
2008 Record: 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: WRs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, 3 offensive linemen
Key returning players: QB Daryll Clark, RBs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, LB Sean Lee
Projection: Down. The Spread HD worked in 2008 because Clark was on-point all year, and the Lions had the skill position talent on the outside to force defenses to spread the whole field. With Clark tailing off in the last few games (albeit due to injury, perhaps), and the OL and wideouts gone, PSU won’t be the offensive force that they were last year. Defensively, the return of Sean Lee should help in the middle. However, the top 3 defensive ends left, and #4 is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Illinois
2008 Record: 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: LB Brit Miller, CB Vontae Davis, WR Will Judson
Key returning players: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, LB Martez Wilson
Projection: Same. Like Iowa, the record might improve, but the team will be about as good in 2009. The offense should really click with a senior Juice Williams and junior Arrelious Benn, though you could have said the same last year (and the Illini were awesome at times, just horrifically inconsistent). The defense should take major steps back with its best two players, LB Brit Miller and Vontae Davis, gone and the third best player, LB Martez Wilson, doing things like getting stabbed in a bar during the offseason.

Purdue
2008 Record: 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten)
Key losses: QBs Curtis Painter and Justin Siller, RB Kory Sheets, WRs Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy, LB Anthony Heygood, S Torri Williams
Key returning players: S Joe Holland, QB Joey Elliott
Projection: Down. Purdue sucked last year, and nearly all of their best players are leaving town because their eligibility has expired (everyone but Siller) or because they cheat on exams (Siller). Couple all that with a transition to a new offensive scheme and a plan to rely on several true freshmen despite their lack of guru approval, and Danny Hope’s first year in West Lafayette may be a difficult one. There could be a coaching upgrade as Wilford Brimley had been mailing it in the past couple years, but there is basically no talent for the Boilers to work with.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB PJ Hill, TEs Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Key returning players: QB Dustin Sherer, WRs David Gilreath and Nick Toon, LB Jaevery McFadden
Projection: Up. The Badgers were a team that lost plenty of games they shouldn’t have, and the important question for tham is whether that was bad luck or the horrifically bad coaching ability of Bret Bielema. The early appearances are a bit of both, so the Badgers should be a bit better, but not by leaps and bounds. Hill wasn’t even Wisconsin’s best RB for much of the year, and Sherer was the better QB, despite Allan Evridge starting the year under center. Simply getting the right pieces the ball more often should help. I think Bielema has a definite ceiling, especially with players he has recruited and coached for four year.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 10-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Beanie Wells, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline
Key returning players: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, CB Chimdi Chekwa
Projection: Down. The Buckeyes really should have been awesome last year, and might have been if Terrelle Pryor had started the whole year, and not been a true freshman. Alas, this was the case, and OSU’s last best chance at a national title for the next couple years leaves town with Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Regardless, the Buckeyes are never going to fall completely off the map as long as Jim Tressel is the coach, so there’s a definite floor for their team. either way, they’ll take a significant step back in 2009.

• After running a 10.44 100m dash last week, incoming freshman QB Denard Robinson ran a 10.28 over the weekend. At this pace, he should be teleporting to the finish line in 0 seconds by the time he gets to ann Arbor in the summer. So, as established, Mr. Robinson is fast. I would expect the coaches to have a package of plays designed for him to run this fall.
• After announcing his plans to transfer from the University of Miami, QB Robert Marve had Michigan on his list of five schools to which he would consider transferring. This was confusing to Michigan fans, because the Wolverines have little use for a pocket passer with 2 years of eligibility remaining. Rest easy, as he’s removed Michigan from his list of options, and replaced it with Arizona State. He cited “crowded QB situation” following the commitment of Devin Gardner, rather than the obvious “they probably couldn’t use my skill set.” Being afraid to beat out a true freshman (who is, by his own admission, a bit of a project) is something of a concern, especially for a guy who’s been the starter at his old school. Best of luck to Marve in the future. 
• After Brian’s discussion of GERG’s potential 3-4/4-3 hybrid mega-confusing defense, noted X-and-Os expert GSimmons85 has given it his shot to educate the Michigan fandom on defensive fronts, alignments, and what it all might mean for the Wolverines’ D next year. 
• Michigan Sports Center keeps you update with Alumni Flag Game rosters.
• In the St. Paul Pioneer Press, you can find a truly touching story about former Michigan baseball player Mike Watters, his son’s struggle with cancer, and his meeting of a parentless young cancer patient named Victor (via MVictors).
• Maize N Brew Dave gives his take on what the death of the Ann Arbor News might mean for the Michigan blogosphere, and how the role of the blog is likely to change fairly radically in the very near future. His take seems a little more dire than I might expect, and I think blogs will continue having the same ability to come up with content that we do now, but perhaps with even more access, which is definitely a good thing. Be honest, how often do most Michigan blogs link the AA News as the basis for an entire post? Not very frequently, in my memory. Maybe a Jim Carty column or two from back in the day, but that’s about it.

Games included: Iowa III, Purdue II, Iowa II, Minnesota I, Northwestern II, Michigan State, UConn, Purdue I, Minnesota II, Wisconsin II, Ohio State II, Northwestern I, Ohio State I, Penn State I, Illinois II, Iowa I, Indiana, Illinois I, Oakland, Wisconsin I, NC Central

Individual Players

The overwhelming majority of Stu’s shots came from the outside (which is not surprising at all). What is somewhat surprising is how infrequently he jacked up bad looks. Expect his chart to look pretty different next year, as the departure of every point guard currently on the roster will force Stu to play a little more point.

The casual Michigan Basketball fan can’t hate Zack Gibson enough (and there are a few legitimate reasons to not like his game), but he is actually a pretty darned good player at times. He can be a defensive liability, which obviously isn’t indicated on this chart, and he’s never going to dominate anyone offensively, but he is the quintessential role player.

The striking thing about Manny’s chart, especially in relation to everyone else on the team, is his shot selection. He shots a whole hell of a lot of bad looks. The reasons for this are multiple, and some are Manny’s fault, whereas others aren’t. Things that are his fault? Obviously, he needs to improve his recognition of what he’s getting himself into as he drives the lane, and not go for it, or dish after driving. Even when he gets up in the air, he can get enough hangtime to hopefully pass out. He also shoots a lot of poor 3-pointers, though he seemed to develop a touch for making them towards the end of the year (sadly, not encapsulated in this chart). Things that aren’t his fault include having to carry the load on offense, getting stuck with the vast majority of the team’s last-second chucks to beat the shot clock, not being able to draw a foul call to save his life (those are in the chart as “1″ attempts, even though many of them were definitely deserving of a call). With a hopefully improved roster next year, some of the external factors will go away completely or be reduced, and Manny could really improve his offensive efficiency.

He was never meant to be an offensive player, and his (in)ability to consistently shoot bears out why.

After a blazing start to the season, he hit something of a wall (as did the other two freshmen), shooting more and more poorly over the course of the season, with a few excellent games mixed in. Next year, he’ll probably have to play more of a slashing PG-type role, which he actually did very well at times this year, to the point where I was begging for it in certain games toward the end of the year.

I will repeat again that all three freshmen had their hot games and slumps. Novak is probably the most prone to this, because he was playing a position in which he was a physical underdog in every game, and was getting the hell beaten out of him on a regular basis. Next year, hopefully Cronin, Morgan, and McLimans will be able to give the team a little more size on a consistent basis, and Zack will be able to move to a more natural position.

I don’t think I went an entire UFR of a game Shepherd played in one time this year without making the following statement: “Quintessential Jevohn Shepherd. He shows off his great athleticism and stunning lack of basketball ability all at once.”

Among shots that fans can reasonably expect him to make (that is, those graded “2″ or “3″), he shoots ridiculously well. He also did a much better job than the team’s other star, Manny, of choosing his shots wisely. He would take big post defenders out toward the perimeter, or post up smaller mismatches. Sims has one more year to get even better, and with more big men on next year’s team, hopefully be entirely dominant next year.

At one point late in the season, he was actually leading the team in 3-point percentage. Like Lee, this sort of analysis isn’t going to make him look like a great player, because he does so little on offense.

This graph surprises me, because Kelvin was one of the few players on this team that I was absolutely convinced would make the shot any time I saw him shoot an open 3. His loss will be lamented, because it hurts Michigan in terms of PG depth (currently: none).

Man, I’m so over talking shit about Anthony Wright. His awesome performance in the Oklahoma game is not charted here, but he actually wasn’t as much of a “see the ball, shoot the ball” player as I’ve criticized him for (at least not in the second half of the season, when his minutes dropped off, which is what I’ve charted here).

One hundred million dollars of awesome. Puls made his first like 5 three-pointers, which also happened to be his first 5 field goal attempts. If he can get Barwisized in the off-season (seriously: have him work out with the football team), he could contribute down the road, because dude can certainly shoot.

Michigan takes on the Sooners of Oklahoma at 5:50 PM tonight on CBS in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Oklahoma is going to be a big favorite in this game, as should be expected of a 2-seed going up against a 10-seed. The Sooners are better than Michigan in nearly every facet of the game. In fact, the only area in which Michigan is expected to be better is not turning the ball over themselves. This means the Wolverines absolutely must hold onto the rock (and they did a decent job against Clemson), and hit the shots that they have open. Of course, the paint is going to be a very troublesome area for Michigan, as even Clemson’s non-all-everything players were able to get theirs and more from the lane. Oklahoma’s advantage in rebounding is surprisingly small to me, especially following the dismal performance on the defensive glass against Clemson. KenPom predicts a 73-67 Clemson win in a 65-possession game.

EEK! Blake Griffin! Who is the last guy that this Michigan team, what with their small size and inability to match up well in the paint wants? Why, a center who happens to be the leading candidate for most Player of the Year Awards! DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson’s ability to defend Griffin without fouling too much is of paramount importance in this game. Because of that, I expect to see a lot of 2-3 zone. The only other Sooners I know off the top of my head are Griffin’s “big” brother Taylor, and that point guard with the hideous hair decisions on both head and chin.

Yeah, so this is a really, really bad matchup for Michigan. I want to delude myself into thinking Michigan can win, but there’s no way I can convince the rational side of me. The success of the 2-3 zone is encouraging, and Oklahoma’s smaller rotation (only 7 players get significant playing time) certainly helps. Considering Griffin has been beat up of late, suffering a concussion against Texas toward the end of the regular season, and getting flagrantly fouled Thursday against Morgan State, the Sooners may wish they had spent more of the year developing depth. However, I’d rather predict a Michigan loss and be pleasantly surprised when they win than predict a win (foolishly) and be disappointed and wrong if they lose. So yeah, Michigan might be able to make this one close, but I really see this as a matchup of doom.

The unfortunate part of this site is that, like many of the best things in life, it isn’t free. There are several subscription options, ranging from $10-100, each with different access to their variety of features.

The pick for the Clemson game gives the Wolverines a 46.4% chance to win by one metric, and 41.0% chance by the other. Two predictions of the final score by BracketBrains have Michigan losing by scores of 74.6-71.0 and 73.4-68.4. Should they advance, the odds against Oklahoma are pretty dire, indeed.

It’s a really cool site if you’re willing to shell out the cash, and I encourage you to give it a look-see, even if you don’t end up buying.

Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.

When Last We Met…

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.

The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.

And…?

Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:

Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.

Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.

On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.

Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.

Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.

He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.

OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.

No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.

Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.

Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..

OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.

Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:

1. Figure out how many points losing team scores.
2. Figure out when winning team reaches this score.
3. Determine from game margin and time left whether winning team was running up the score.

Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Stu’s negative differential doesn’t necessarily say anything bad about him, so much as it says a lot about how important LLP’s performance was on this day.

Zack had a very good differential for how little he played, and he was on the floor for a big part of the run late in the second half that allowed Michigan to get back in the game. He wasn’t particularly active in it (except for one big block that caused a shot clock violation on the Gophers), but hey, he was out there.

Played almost the whole game, and shot much better (in terms of decision-making) than he had been.

CJ Lee good DEFENSE, not great OFFENSE. Did a much better job than usual breaking the press, which allowed Beilein to play him over Grady.

Huge. Shot the lights out in the second half when Michigan needed him most. Since I call him out when he’s a liability, I’d better give him props when he plays like this.

Wasn’t on the floor for a few of the negative shifts in the first half, but other than that played the whole game against much bigger opponents.

With such a small sample size, can’t really criticize his negative differential.

The differential number for Sims is surprising, considering he was the game’s leading scorer. He missed the shift in the second half where Michigan really started making the big comeback.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Got less playing time than last game, and wasn’t a major factor either way.

I saw him catch the ball and not shoot it on FOUR separate occasions. What an improvement! Actually had some very nice plays on defense and offense.

Hooray for big second half comebacks, especially one pulled off with DeShawn Sims on the bench against a team with very good size.