Perhaps the most serious damage Wermers may have inflicted, though, is not in terms of what he did do, but rather what he didn’t: stay eligible. Michigan’s football APR has been declining slightly over the past few years, as the Carr tenure waned and now even more Rich Rodriguez has come into town with his demanding program. Several players – whether they didn’t fit the system, weren’t willing to put in the work, or just wanted to go to Ohio State in the first place but were guilted into Michigan by Bo and used a father’s plow service(!) as an excuse to leave Michigan – have departed since the new sheriff in town took over.

The NCAA’s Academic Progress Rate is used by The Toothless Organization to determine which schools aren’t taking care of their student-athletes academically. It is calculated by a 4-year average of scores out of 1000, and if said score dips below 925, tTO will write you a strongly worded letter, then give no actual sanctions (though they’ve gained some teeth, and have punished even a couple BCS conference teams). So how has Michigan done over the past couple years? Take a look:

These numbers have, as mentioned above, been on the decline for a couple years, and as higher-APR scores from years past move out of the 4-year average, and the more recent years (with worse APR scores) go into the equation, it doesn’t necessarily bode well for Michigan. Each player leaving the Michigan program costs the team 1 point out of 1000 in the APR calculation for that year. If a player leaves while he is ineligible for NCAA competition, it reduces overall score by 2 points. It’s unclear exactly when players count towards the next score: I believe those who left before the 2008 season have already been counted, and no others have.

That means 8 players have already left the team since the end of the 2008 season. According to history, more may be on the way. With Michigan’s APR trending downwards, it appears as though the 2010 score will be more of the same. Will the Wolverines dip into the danger zone – below 925? They haven’t come close yet, though they’re certainly heading in the wrong direction. But hey, there’s always applying for waivers.

6-29-09 Notre Dame gains commitment from Chris Badger. Minnesota gains commitment from Zac Epping. Illinois gains commitment from Andy Gallik. Iowa gains commitment from Matt Hoch. Indiana gains commitment from Jibreel Black.
6-30-09 Minnesota gains commitment from Kip Smith. Indiana gains commitment from Marlandez Harris. Michigan State gains commitment from Nick Hill.
7-1-09 Penn State gains commitment from Levi Norwood. Ohio State gains commitment from Roderick Smith. Minnesota gfains commitment from Mark Lenkiewicz. Indiana gains commitment from Matt Perez. Northwestern gains commitment from Paul Jorgenson.
7-2-09 Ohio State gains commitment from Drew Basil.

No change for Michigan.

The Nittany Lions grab Levi Norwood.

Notre Dame steals safety Chris Badger from Stanford.

Ohio State picks up a bigtime RBin Roderick Smith and kicker Drew Basil.

The Spartans pick up Nick Hill, who had previously been presumed a hige Michigan lean (until not receiving his offer at camp).

Big week for the Gophers as they snag 3 more commits.

Andy Gallik commits to the Illini

Nothing new for Wisco.

Iowa picks up

The Hoosiers add Xavier Whitaker, and he becomes their highest-rated commit. Should Northwestern be ahead of them? Not quite yet.

A decent QB joins the class for the Wildcats, along with a target for him to pass it to.

Oh my! A commit! Or 4.

Roy Roundtree was one of three Trotwood-Madison commits in Rich Rodriguez’s first recruiting class, and is the player who set of the now-infamous Joe Tiller rant. Roundtree has practiced at both wide receiver and slot in his Michigan career, though he redshirted last year to add some weight for the college game. Thus far, the highlight of Roundtree’s Wolverine career is the 50-yard touchdown bomb he caught from Tate Forcier in the 2009 Sring Game.

The poll will remain open for 7 days, closing at 5PM next Thursday. Have your heart set on a particular candidate? Try to sway others in the comments. The full bracket is visible here.

Other Open Polls:
Gibbons v. Van Bergen.
Warren v. Stokes.
Schilling v. Emilien.
Mesko v. Ortmann.
Cissoko v. Toussaint.
Forcier v. Patterson.

Completed 1st Round Poll:
Minor defeats Sheridan, appx. 947-53 (numbers not final).

5-25-09 Notre Dame gains commitment from Alex Welch.
5-27-09 Michigan gains commitment from Jordan Paskorz.

Mild disclaimer: I’m not going to be super-diligent about checking all 3 rating services, except in the case of new commits or if the “OMG SCOUT 400″ is released.

Jordan Paskorz (hopefully) gets the defense train rolling for Michigan. Michigan’s got lots of commitments from slightly lesser-ranked guys, limiting their upside for the rest of the class. I’d be shocked if they finish the year at the top of this list.

No change for the Buckeyes.

Penn State passes Notre Dame, as their commit list is far more impressive overall at this time.

Notre Dame picks up a pretty good tight end in Alex Welch.

Antoine Lewis gets 3-star ranking from Rivals.

Nothing new for the Illini.

Lippett still unrated. ESPN ranks him higher than most of Michigan’s commits, which like, wow, you’re dumb.

Gray and Morris each get 3-star ratings from Rivals.

Zagzebski and Mason still the only Badgers holding it down.

Indiana grabs JuCo Andre Kates to get on board.

Northwestern, Purdue – 0 commits.

What is going on

According to Jim Stefani, Michigan has as many as 130 offers to high school prospects outstanding thus far. Many of these, however, might be from kids that they don’t really want to commit. According to Jim Stefani, “In a sense, many Michigan ‘offers’ are not really firm offers but more or less strong indications of interest by Michigan.  Take that for what you will, but it is how many schools are now approaching recruiting.  Look at the DB who wanted to verbal to U-M last week [Travis Williams] but was told to wait.” Florida, a school that uses a similar technique in throwing around a lot of offers, had a similar situation, and they had to tell a defensive back outright that the offer he had been given was not “committable.” It appears as though the main point of contention here, then, is what an offer really means.

Shouldn’t an offer, by definition, be “committable?” Isn’t that, after all, what an offer is? Wolv54 offered a hypothesis in the comments from the previous post:

The only potential problem the shotgun approach creates is that you have a finite number of schollies and you have to slow play some guys waiting for the higher ranked guys make their decisions. I would compare it to trying to get a prom date; whereas you ask the hottest girl you know and hope she says but if not, you can always take that girl that plays in the band, right?

Michigan seems to be offering both the “hottest girl” and the “band girl,” and hoping they can get the less desirable option to wait for the hotter one before making a decision. However, with a Michigan offer now just meaning that the Wolverines have strong interest in a kid, the techniques might have to be adjusted. According to Stefani, “they need to be careful that they get the right kids to commit of those 130. Believe me, even though a kid has been offered does not mean that Michigan wants him to commit right away (or, perhaps, ever).”

So why do they offer guys without actually wanting them to commit? This hasn’t always worked out, as people (like Travis Williams) try to commit, without the staff wanting it. That can lead to one of the problems that Michigan fans fear, according to Michigan4204,

I mean damn dude, were beating out schools like TCU, Tulsa, SMU, and Baylor for some of these recruits. Players used to come to Michigan because they produced pro-level talent. You have to have that talent first of all when you arrive on campus, and half of RR recruits simply don’t have that talent.

There are certainly ways out of this (and schools like florida use them as well), but it’s not always the cleanest break, as Stefani points out, “It backfires when a kid wants to commit and the verbal is not accepted or commits and then a few months later Michigan stops contact.  That is because it will upset the prospect and, more importantly, his high school coach.  If the prospects is from a program loaded with D-I talent every year it could definitely hurt.” Michigan seems to be willing to risk this.

The Contrast with Ohio State

Ohio State, as mentioned above, is using a recruiting method that seems to be diametrically opposed to that of Rich Rodriguez and staff. Jim Tressel has given out very few offers, and has many fewer commits than Michigan, though most of their commits are more highly-rated than some of Michigan’s guys. Like Michigan has its reasons for the current recruiting strategy, Ohio State also has reasons for theirs. They already have a deep talent base, and this year, they have very few scholarships to hand out. Stefani’s take:

The longer a school waits to offer, the more time it has to evaluate prospects and decide who they want to offer.  With schools in the midst of May evaluation, combines going on every weekend and summer camps coming up in June, the Ohio State coaches will have a LOT more info at hand when it comes to making their offer decisions than the school that have offered many prospects early based on sophomore year camp/combine performances and junior film.

The Buckeyes also give themselves another advantage: “many of the elite players like to wait things out, which only helps the schools who have not picked up too many early verbals.” Of course, Michigan will wait on top-top guys who have interest, but does accepting a lot of early verbals limit their ability to do so? Probably.

As shown above, Michigan fans aren’t exactly unanimously enthusiastic about the new approach. Michigan4204 was the most harsh in the comments of the previous post, using the now-old adage “Just because it worked in the Big East doesn’t mean it’ll work in the Big Ten. Trust me I hope it does, but I’m pessimistic.” When it was pointed out that there is no reason to expect any different result simply on a different conference, he was quick to point out the talent difference between the Big Ten and Big East, which, unfortunately for his argument, seems to ring a little hollow.

So, yeah. That argument certainly doesn’t hold water. Complaining about Rodriguez’s tactics on the basis of a talent difference between conferences is bogus. Of course, that doesn’t stop ontblue from agreeing with him:

Tend to agree with Michigan4204. You can take RR’s 3/4 star guys and I’ll take the USC/Florida/Suckeyes 4/5 star guys and we’ll see how things stack up in 5 years. By the way, since when did adding a marginal guy ever add to depth? It just adds another cheerleader.

Obviously, Rich and staff think the commits that they take will be guys who are able to contribute, or they likely wouldn’t waste their time. As bouje noted, “Who are the players that are really lighting it up in spring practices? Vincent Smith 3* out of Florida. He can obviously pick the 3* recruits.”

The reasons for this approach

So why does Michigan have to recruit the way they are? For one thing, they’ll probably have a lot of scholarships to fill, unlike the Buckeyes. “[L]ast year Ohio State signed a full class of 25, so they have limited schollies to hand out this year and are being very selective,” Stefani said. “On the other hand, after expected attrition Michigan is in a position to sign between 22 and 25 kids this coming year, so the Wolverines have a lot more flexibility when it comes to making early offers.” The early offers also help Michigan get their foot in the door with some guys:

Being aggressive with their early offers means that Michigan gets on a prospect’s radar earlier than those schools that have not offered.  the old adage ‘the early bird catches the worm’ applies here.  Moreover, actually picking up early verbals gets the whole process rolling as they can market their “great” (haha, excuse me) class to other prospects, as can the kids who have already committed.  They can now tell a lot of the Ohio kids, we love you but Ohio State doesn’t.  that carries some weight.

The early offers also mean that the class fills up quickly, as pointed out by Derrick, “Wouldn’t this approach force some kids to make a decision before all the offers were gone? If a kid really wants to play for michigan or any school he knows there are only so many offers available and he should be proactive in making a commitment.” Still, fans aren’t necessarily all on board with this approach, as sebaskrator said, “I’m willing to give RR the benefit of the doubt for now. Has has been able to get pretty far finding some gems before. That said, if he is able to juggle commitments around for someone he’d like more later, great.” It’s an endorsement, sure, but I’d say that’s far from ringing.

The Future

So, when Michigan’s talent base is built up to where it used to be, at least with the types of players that Rodriguez wants, will we see this strategy continue? It’s highly likely, though a school like Florida, which has had several top-tier classes in a row now, continues to use it, as AC1997 points out “I find it interesting how Urban Myer is offering everyone and their brother too, being from Utah he had the same problem that Rich Rod did (and probably worse).” The key thing that needs to happen before Michigan can audible the recruiting strategy is to show results on the field, according to Stefani, “First and foremost,once Michigan starts winning again it will become a magnet for national kids and be able to hold off on offering second-tier kids too early.” Ohio State obviously doesn’t have this problem right now, as he points out:

Ohio State is a top-tier national program that has gone to a couple consecutive BCS championship games.  They are an elite school that a LOT of kids want to play for, be they in-state kids or national kids… They can afford to wait on a lot of in-state kids because they know that they can get them later in the recruiting timeline if they finish second on some of their top national targets.  Michigan, on the other hand, is in a rare rebuilding mode and is not longer a “hot” school with national prospects.

In the future, once Michigan (hopefully) starts having on-field success again, this argument will all become moot.

There are still benefits to Michigan’s technique, as Stefani says “The risks [for an approach like OSU] are that by waiting too long to offer a prospects you have ‘bigger fish to fry’ you will lose out on him to another school (e.g. Devin Gardner to Michigan).  Once prospects are offered bythe Buckeyes, they will often have to do a ‘catch-up’ job in showing them the love.” However, It seems that Michigan will likely never go from the extreme that they’re currently occupying all the way to Ohio State’s, wherein they offer very few prospects early. In the end, a happy medium is probably most desired. AC1997 probably sums it up best: “Maybe he feels that 3-9 means he has to do that.” In another year 3-9, hopefully, will no longer be an issue.

Speaking of recruiting — in this case the negative variety — check out this quote in the Palm Beach Post from Pahokee receiver De’Joshua Johnson.

“I dropped Florida and West Virginia because of the spread offense,” Johnson said. “I don’t want to play in the spread offense. I’ve seen how it affected receivers in the NFL draft.”

Johnson is reportedly leaning to Florida State and is considering Tennessee.

For his part, Pat Dooley has a decent and brief retort, though it comes off as Florida-homer rebuttal, rather than rebutting the actual claims themselves:

He might want to check his facts.

Didn’t Percy Harvin go in the first round? Chad Jackson? Meyer has had five receivers drafted from Florida during his tenure (six if you count Cornelius Ingram), the most for any school in the nation. FSU hasn’t had a first-round skill player in seven years and two receivers taken in the draft during Meyer’s tenure. Tennessee has had three during the same span.

This is a good start, but it doesn’t really hit the point at the very crux of this matter: You are what you are. Percy Harvin didn’t get drafted where he did because of the spread offense, he got drafted because he has Size X and Skill Set Y, which the NFL interprets as NFL Potential Z. Harvin has had Size X and Skill Set Y at his disposal, and would have had them regardless of where he went to college (we can debate the minor-ish point of a different strength coach at some other school helping Harvin achieve his potential to a different degree, but that’s outside of the discussion of offense – though I’d contend that some spread schemes demand a better strength coach).

The main things that an offensive scheme will affect are:

1. Production. Depending on the type of spread, a receiver may play a larger or smaller role in the offense, affecting production. One of the the things that the NFL might look at is “Well, he has X and Y, but his production hasn’t matched that. Does he have a good excuse for this, or does he not bring it on game day?” Spread offenses are even more creative in terms of ways to get receivers the ball, in Harvin/Johnson’s specific cases.
2. Preparation. Sure, a college QB who runs exclusively from the shotgun won’t be quite as ready to play right away in the NFL, and a receiver might run fewer or different routes, and have simpler reads of defenses playing in a spread offense. These players don’t come to the NFL ready to compete on day 1, perhaps. However, I’ll let Mike Leach take this one:

“I only need a three-hour window. I’ll have a great clinic for all the NFL coaches who are so horrible that they can’t teach a guy to take a snap under center and go backwards.”

Yeah, so Mike Leach is awesome, and an offensive scheme doesn’t have a huge effect on where a player is drafted (and oddly, this is especially true for receivers, whose responsibilities probably change the least out of anyone on the offense with a spread v. pro-style offense).

Let’s take a look at every receiver drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft. I’ll vaguely lump their college offensive schemes into “spread” and “pro-style.” This may seem a bit simplistic at first, but then, isn’t the criticism of the spread offense writ large simplistic itself?

Take a look at that! 13 Receivers from spread offenses and 17 from pro-style offenses were selected, with 4 from 1-AA teams, which I didn’t include because 1) I don’t know what type of offense most 1-AA schools run, and 2) If they’re taking a guy from a 1-AA school, offensive scheme is probably not on the forefront of NFL GMs’ decisions. Considering that more schools run a pro-style offense (particularly in power conferences, from which most NFL players are likely to come), that’s not bad at all. In the first round, the same number of players from each offensive type (3 apiece). When you consider that some schools that I placed in the “pro style” category also have some elements of spread offenses, such as Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon State, it’s a complete wash, at worst. And I guess that brings me back to my main point, which is not that the spread is inherently better for a wide receiver prospect’s chances of making it to the NFL, but rather than the offensive scheme on the whole is irrelevant.

So what’s the course of action? Obviously, a 17-year-old kid didn’t come up with this (bogus) assertion by himself. No, based on reputation, and the schools entering and exiting De’Joshua’s list, this almost certainly comes from one Lane Monte Kiffin. Of course, do I expect Rich Rodriguez to bore a kid to death with charts and whatnot? Probably not, but dispelling a meme, using whatever evidence is available, will certainly help.

The Michigan coaching staff had better be on top of their scholarship management when it comes to the Class of 2010. They have about….

….125 offers out there, and with 9 early verbals that leaves room for probably about another 13-17 commitments. They are handing out…

…”offers” like candy this year. It is a fine balancing act between offering kids early to maintain interest and being selective enough..

…..to hold out for the top kids. RichRod nd staff will need to be master jugglers this year. Interesting thing is that Ohio State….

…is taking the completely opposite approach and has been more selective than any other school in the nation in making early offers.

Also: Jim Stefani doesn’t understand the point of Twitter.

I’ll explore this in further depth later, but for now, I’d just like to point out that there is no “right way” to do it. Florida, for example, seems to offer everyone, much like Michigan. Texas, like Ohio State, is very selective with who it offers. Both schools are riotously successful in the recruiting game (as is Ohio State, and Michigan will hopefully get there with a little better product on the field).

So, I ask you, fair readers: What do you think? This discussion may be colored a bit by the semi-controversial commitment of Drew Dileo, but I’m interested to hear what the fans think.

• After running a 10.44 100m dash last week, incoming freshman QB Denard Robinson ran a 10.28 over the weekend. At this pace, he should be teleporting to the finish line in 0 seconds by the time he gets to ann Arbor in the summer. So, as established, Mr. Robinson is fast. I would expect the coaches to have a package of plays designed for him to run this fall.
• After announcing his plans to transfer from the University of Miami, QB Robert Marve had Michigan on his list of five schools to which he would consider transferring. This was confusing to Michigan fans, because the Wolverines have little use for a pocket passer with 2 years of eligibility remaining. Rest easy, as he’s removed Michigan from his list of options, and replaced it with Arizona State. He cited “crowded QB situation” following the commitment of Devin Gardner, rather than the obvious “they probably couldn’t use my skill set.” Being afraid to beat out a true freshman (who is, by his own admission, a bit of a project) is something of a concern, especially for a guy who’s been the starter at his old school. Best of luck to Marve in the future. 
• After Brian’s discussion of GERG’s potential 3-4/4-3 hybrid mega-confusing defense, noted X-and-Os expert GSimmons85 has given it his shot to educate the Michigan fandom on defensive fronts, alignments, and what it all might mean for the Wolverines’ D next year. 
• Michigan Sports Center keeps you update with Alumni Flag Game rosters.
• In the St. Paul Pioneer Press, you can find a truly touching story about former Michigan baseball player Mike Watters, his son’s struggle with cancer, and his meeting of a parentless young cancer patient named Victor (via MVictors).
• Maize N Brew Dave gives his take on what the death of the Ann Arbor News might mean for the Michigan blogosphere, and how the role of the blog is likely to change fairly radically in the very near future. His take seems a little more dire than I might expect, and I think blogs will continue having the same ability to come up with content that we do now, but perhaps with even more access, which is definitely a good thing. Be honest, how often do most Michigan blogs link the AA News as the basis for an entire post? Not very frequently, in my memory. Maybe a Jim Carty column or two from back in the day, but that’s about it.

Removal:
SC DB DeAndre Hopkins, who committed to Clemson, as predicted.

Standard Information:
OK QB DeMarco Cobbs has been offered by basically every school as a wideout, but Michigan is giving the likely 5-star a look at QB. He’s been added to the board, but not yet with an offer.

FL LB Jeff Luc is sporting a Michigan offer, and he can’t decide which National All-Star game in which he’d most like to participate. Florida is his favorite, but he plans to wait until at least fall before he makes a decision. Frequent commenter “i know nothing” also brings his video to my attention, which I present for your review:

The dude looks like a heck of a player, and a very violent presence at linebacker. His offer sheet and invitations to both HS All-Star games would speak to this, and Michigan would certainly love to have him.

Michigan has offered FL CB Spencer Boyd. The 5-10, 160-lber also plays running back in high school. Boyd plans to wait until after his senior season to make a final decision. He’s been added to the board. Speaking of Boyd, Jim Stefani gave his information on some of Michigan’s new offerees:

Spencer Boyd DB/RB/WR 5′10 165 4.31 Cape Coral Florida

One of the top junior DBs and RBs in Florida. I have him ranked as among the top 58 DBs in the nation. As a junior, despite being injured part of the year and playing in just 8 games, he had 104 carries for 620 yards, 30 tackles and a 104-yard INT return for a score. Projects as a college CB. Has very quick feet and exceptional change-of-direction. 225 bench, 385 squat as a sophomore. Honorable Mention All-U.S. Army Combine at DB. Impressive on the 2008 combine circuit (4.31 forty, 4.25 shuttle). Named a team captain as a junior. “He’s kind of like our Marshall Faulk – he does a little bit of everything,” [Head Coach] Goebbel said. “He has the speed to take the ball up the sideline and the power to run between the tackles. We can put him out at receiver and he can catch the ball and make things happen that way. “He’s really one of the best overall players around this area.”

Caleb Lavey LB 6′3 225 4.56 Celina Texas

I have him rated as among the top 25 LBs in the nation. As a junior LB he recorded almost 200 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 FFs and 2 FRs. Nice-sized linebacker who has a great frame and runs well. Good nose for the ball and instincts. 275 bench, 27 vertical. 3.9 GPA. His father attended Michigan and was an equipment manager for the football team. 6-3, 225. One of the top junior prospects at the 1A-3A Texas 7 on 7 Tournament…………..2007 1A-3A State Passing Tournament Top 33 Recruits.

D.J. Williamson WR/DB 6′1 180 4.45 Warren Harding Ohio

I have him ranked as among the top 75 WRs in the nation. Sophomore track times: 10.82 100 meters and he qualified for the state meet, 21.7 200 meters. Great speed and nice size for a receiver, Excels as a return man. 270 bench, 315 squat, 32 vertical

Jim has a ton more information on all three of these guys on his site (I’ve trimmed it down significantly), so go check it out if you’re interested. I’ve also added D.J. Williamson to the board. Per the Junior Day updates listed below, he plans to visit Ann Arbor for the Junior Day this weekend. Webb’s update gave the not-so-subtle implication that a commitment is highly likely while Williamson is in town, so be on the lookout. The internet scuttlebutt is that Williamson grew up a huge Michigan fan, and agrees with the “likely commitment” sentiment.

Now, a slight transition into Junior Day talk:
As was the case last year, Michigan’s first Junior Day of the year will coincide with the Night of Champions, a team-wide competition serving as the official end of winter conditioning, and therefore the beginning of spring practice. Of course, the junior day isn’t the first time Michigan has invited 2010 prospects to campus this year, and several players, such as Jerald Robinson (who offered his commitment), William Gholston, and Devin Gardner have already taken in basketball games in Crisler Arena.

So which players are planning to attend this weekend? As Josh Helmholdt reveals in the Free Press:

Among the in-state prospects who’ve stated they plan to attend are Detroit Southeastern defensive end William Gholston, Detroit Cass Tech cornerback Dior Mathis, Inkster quarterback Devin Gardner, Warren Fitzgerald linebacker Austin Gray, Charlevoix offensive lineman Bill Ivan and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s quarterback Robert Bolden.

Spartanburg, S.C., quarterback Cornelius Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) is one of those who is trying to work out a trip to Ann Arbor for the event. He was offered by U-M in January. Flower Mound (Tex.) Marcus running back Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 220) has also said he wants to visit Michigan that weekend.

(Ivan added to the recruiting board). There are also a few more recent updates:

• Sam Webb said last Friday on WTKA that he also expects MI CB Mylan Hicks and MI DE CJ Olaniyan to make it in, but that Cornelius Jones probably won’t have a chance to visit until the spring game.
• Monday, Sam’s WTKA recruiting update included information that DJ Williamson will attend (see above), and SC OL AJ Cann is also going to try to make it up for Junior Day, along with “a few guys from out in Western PA.” I assume that refers to CBs Cullen Christian and Brandon Ifill.
• This Rivals header states that instate RB Austin White will be in attendance as well.

***UPDATE*** Gardner also plans to announce a commitment decision Monday, after (presumably) coming on the Ann Arbor visit. This can certainly be seen as a positive sign, though it’s not guaranteed that Devin Gardner will commit to Michigan.

Not So Fast My Friend. It is in fact the offense that Chris has taken an interest in. More specifically, it is the idea that Michigan’s offense is not as diversified or systematic as perhaps it should be. This is not an old issue for Chris, who has brought up the point before that the passing game is not conceptually designed. In the more recent post, he goes a little more in-depth:

If Rodriguez wants his offense to be truly elite again, it’s the passing game that has to be the source of innovation. The run game tools are largely in place. There’s some room for improvement all around, but, last season with general inexperience — and without a legitimate running threat at quarterback — the lack of a viable downfield passing attack worked to help cripple the Rodriguez offense. But the fact that this aspect never developed over the course of the season was what really troubled me.

There’s much more to say on this topic, but for now suffice to say that Rodriguez is in danger of falling behind in the spread offense arms race in terms of sophistication. I discussed that phenomena with Purdue as a pass-first spread team over the last decade, but it’s of a slightly different order with Michigan.

Let’s break this down, shall we?

Passing Game
Smart Football sez:

But Rodriguez is a bright guy and his passing game originally derived from (though is a long way now) the old run and shoot. So you’d think he could remedy this. Yet with nothing but true freshman, that evolution will have to wait. The longer they wait, however, the farther behind they fall. The only hope is the increased athleticism masks these deficiencies.

Brian’s take on the matter is that Rodriguez hasn’t been forced to have a complex passing game, because with Pat White at the helm, a dominating run game and simple pass game will work just fine, thank you. I tend to agree with that assessment, and it better be true, because, as noted by Smart Football, the Wolverines are likely a year away from being able to add any complexity to the passing game.

With Pat White able to run the ball like he did, and probably not able to pass well enough to have a full pass game installed, it’s easy to see a potential reason the pass game stayed stagnant. Rodriguez’s recruiting has shown that he’s more interested in being able to throw the ball, however, and Tate Forcier may even be a better passer today than White, if not quite the runner:

Running Game
Smart Football:

Compare their offenses with Rodriguez’s: there’s not much difference from a run-game standpoint (though Meyer and OU mix up their sets a bit more and use more tight-ends now), but the passing games have seen a wide departure.

All due respect to Smart Football (and I may be wrong here, because he knows a hell of a lot more about the game than I do), but I’d be willing to say that even Rodriguez’s ground game, at least as implemented last year, is simpler than other spread teams, most notably Florida and Oregon. Again, part of that might have been players who were less-than-optimal for the spread offense, particularly at the quarterback position.

In the future, however, a diversification of the offense, perhaps including innovations like Meyer’s use of the H-back as a shovel option, or more counters, even the triple option/throwback pass that WVU used in the Meineke Bowl. Having better fits at the QB position, and not having to install just that base offense all offseason, will certainly help that in the future.

The Future

Perhaps Pat White got a bad rap as a passer, or maybe Bill Stewart actually knew what he was doing for WVU’s offense, thoughthe stats don’t agree – and that’s in a year where a senior Pat White was supposed to lead WVU to one of the most prolific offenses ever. However, with White looking more like a quarterback than a wideout or return man at the NFL (for better or for worse), it looks like Rodriguez’s schemes will be able to develop more complexity down the road.

As far as diversifying schemes goes, Chris points out that Oklahoma is an example of a spread team with a much more complex (and effective) passing game than Michigan’s. The use of the tight end is pointed out specifically. In fact, Rodriguez has reportedly planned to visit Oklahoma’s coaches in the offseason to trade information on the passing game, particularly the use of tight ends (of which Michigan has many who aren’t getting very much use).

In the future, I would love to see visits to Florida as well, for diversifying the running game a bit, along with figuring out other ways to use the tights ends effectively in the spread offense.

And, as pointed out by Smart Football, Oregon’s offense is one of the best-designed as well. I’ve pointed out in the past that I don’t think Michigan’s schemes are as creative as Oregon’s, and that’s one area where there is room for improvement. Perhaps in the future, Rodriguez can pick the brain of Chip Kelly.

And, most importantly for the future comes recruiting. Rodriguez has more resources available at Michigan than he ever did at West Virginia. White’s emergence as a possible NFL QB has to help recruiting as well. Even if he didn’t tweak his offense at all, if he continues to recruit like he has for the past two classes (or, more likely, improves it by having more success on the field), He could be able to usurp the quality of his offenses in Morgantown. With minor improvements to certain aspects of the offensive side of the ball, an outstanding offense is likely in the future of Michigan football.

Michigan definitely has a good shot at Inkster QB Devin Gardner. He dropped Ohio State this past week and that was the team he grew up following, so that increases Michigan’s chances that much more. Right now they have a better shot of landing Gardner than [Robert] Bolden. I personally like Gardner’s upside best. He truly does have some of the characteristics that made Terrelle Pryor the No. 1 recruit coming out of HS in the 2008 class. Gardner is also one of the QB prospects who Michigan has the best chance of landing.

I spoke with Austin [Gray] last night and Michigan is definitely high on his radar. Michigan State and Illinois look to be on the verge of offering and Indiana, Toledo, CMU and others already have. He is not listing an outright favorite right now

I was down in Florida with Marvin [Robinson] last week, and I still feel good Michigan is the team to beat. Several others in Florida agree with me on that.

William [Gholston] did favor MSU and really still does, but he has been adamant in the last couple weeks that he does not want to make an early commitment because he has not visited very many schools.

Gholston, Derrick Bryant and Darryl Baldwin from Solon, Ohio, [are the main targets] at defensive end. At DT, there is a kid in Georgia they are taking a look at, but all in all the talent nationally at that position is weak this year. Most of those offers will come later in the process.

[Regarding adding players to the 2009 class] They took a look at Carolina ATH Larry Raper, but have not offered. There are a few three and four-star guys still left uncommitted and if they can get in with one of them, then maybe they add one more. I keep in close contact with Raper, and he has not been offered yet by Michigan. As the days go on, there is less of a chance he does get that offer. The lack of available talent at the DT left in the 2009 class makes it unlikely they will add another one in the 2009 class.

I really believe [Nick Hill] will [end up in Michigan's class] Joe, and likely even before Michigan’s summer camp. Hill is short (5-6), but he has such unique abilities and brings more to the table than most HS backs. I am really high on Hill and rank him as one of the top 5 players in the state for 2010.

Most of that falls in the range of “not at all surprising if you pay attention,” but it’s still worth noting when there’s good recruiting content for free.Michigan State has since offered Gray, and I’ll try to sleuth out who the Georgia DT is.

And while I’m catching up on old recruiting information that wasn’t likely to end up having a home, DocSat talked most successful recruiting schools over the past two classes, and it’s pretty encouraging for Michigan fans:

Bama has reeled in 40 players rated four or five-stars by Rivals over the last two Signing Days. By comparison, the only other schools with more than 30 are USC and Michigan, with 31.

The big difference for Michigan, of course, is the lack of 5-star guys. USC and Bama have 6 and 7, respectively, while the Wolverines have only 1. Hopefully, more success on the field will allow the coaching staff to continue and accelerate the super-positive recruiting momentum they’ve managed to gain despite a 3-9 year.

This is a pretty good representation (though Weis’ offensive mind is clearly overrated – see games against Boston College, Syracuse, San Diego State, USC, etc. – all in his fourth year and with his own recruits). However, I’m obviously not here to talk about Notre Dame coaches, I’m here to apply this concept to Rich Rodriguez.

Offensive Mind – A-

Of course, Rich came to Michigan as an offensive genius, the father of the zone-read offense, engineer of the West Virginia Spread n’ Shred, etc. So how do I not give the man at least an ‘A,’ if not an ‘A+?’ Rich is a very good offensive mind, but he’s very much married to his offensive system, and while he can adapt it somewhat, I don’t see in him the creativity that someone like Chip Kelly brought to Oregon’s (very similar) offense. Maybe down the road, when he gets the personnel he needs, he’ll be a little more creative. however, I’m not sure there was tons of evidence for that in his time at West Virginia, and it remains to be seen if there are many tricks up his sleeve.

Defensive Mind – D+

Rich has never really worried much about defense. He’s put his focus into offense, and hired a defensive coordinator he trusts (or doesn’t trust and fires after one year) to be the “head coach” of the defense. This can be construed as a negative if it doesn’t work out, or a strong positive if it does. Coach Rod does have a reputation for being loyal to his friends from West Virginia, rather than surrounding himself with the best assistants available, so it is something of a weakness.

Recruiting – A-

When you take into account all the media-fueled “turmoil” around the Michigan program, and the negative recruiting that has stemmed from it, Rich has had a great pair of recruiting classes. He’s been able to pull down a pair of top-10 efforts with all the uncertainty around Michigan and the headhunting in the press. Just that alone is worthy of a grade in the A-range. If he’s able to start pulling in annual top-5 or top-3 classes once Michigan starts winning, this grade certainly has upward potential.

Fundamentals – B-

The coaching staff stresses fundamentals, and from everything we know about Rich’s past, he’s very very into teaching fundamentals. However, with Michigan’s play on the field last year, how can he get any better a grade than this? The offensive line in particular improved over the course of the year (and indeed, Greg Frey has the biggest “fundamentals guy” reputation among the coaches), so maybe as the system is installed more, and as the coaches settle in, the fundamental focus will improve.

Motivation – A

You’ve seen the Barwis video. I’ve seen the Barwis video. Barwis may not be Rodriguez, but the two are definitely an inseparable unit, and the motivation that Barwis brings is amazing. Rodriguez himself isn’t such a bad motivator (though, from the sounds of things, he was a little too focused on the stick, and not the carrot at times last spring), and the tandem is amazing motivationally.

When broken into units, it’s easy to see why coach Rodriguez is considered one of the top football leaders in the country. As long as he has a good defensive coordinator to take care of that side of the ball, he should be able to build any team and any program to success in due time.

Anything you don’t agree with? Debate in the comments.

Notre Dame and Michigan’s 2007 and 2008 seasons, respectively, were somewhat similar. Does that mean Michigan is doomed to follow in the Irish’s footsteps and finish 6-6 in their next season? Let’s take a look at why or why not. First, there’s a comparison between the actual teams. As Brian explored on MGoBlog, despite the same record, Notre Dame’s season of terror was much more… terrible… than Michigan’s. So, although this post is primarily predictive, it’s important to note that Michigan’s year was nowhere near the disaster that ND’s was.

Another key difference between the two teams: 2007 was Weis’ third year in South Bend. He was playing with mostly his recruits (after doing all of his winning with Willingham’s oddly-lamented recruiting classes), at least the ones who hadn’t left after committing to Weis, spending two years in his program, earning starting jobs, and STILL hating the whale enough to ditch his program.

The Better

Michigan’s offense, though significantly better than Notre Dame’s, was full of first-time starters (every single player except for one – Steve Schilling), many of whom were never expected to contribute. The offensive line, in particular, didn’t have the accolades or experience of Notre Dame’s comparable unit, and they still managed to perform much better (as in “didn’t give up an NCAA record in sacks”). When you take into account that every single offensive player who had a meaningful role on the team (except Sam McGuffie, who missed much of the year with injury and was out when the offense started to, like, function) is back, and Notre Dame didn’t have quite that luxury between 2007 and 2008, it’s certainly a good sign for Michigan.

Michigan’s defense was supposed to be its strong suit in 2008, and that didn’t quite come to fruition. However, Michigan will be returning some of its most talented players on defense – defensive end Brandon Graham, corner Donovan Warren, and linebacker Obi Ezeh – and they are loking to build on that success.

The Worse

The quarterback situation for Michigan coming off 2008 is much wore than Notre Dame’s was the previous year. Though Jimmy Clausen had a horrible first year in South Bend, he was still the #1 overall recruit in the nation for a reason. Steven Threet, on the other hand (should he choose to stay) is a more limited, though still talented, player. If Michigan has to start a true freshman (or even a sophomore Threet), it will be a step down from a sophomore Clausen.

Michigan also lost its defensive coordinator, which can be seen as a blessing and a curse. Scott Shafer’s defense wasn’t the world-beater it was built up as before the season, but Michigan’s defense will still have to learn from its third coordinator in as many years, which certainly increases the likelihood of missed assignments, etc. Of course, GERG did beat the Irish in their house last year.

The Verdict

Halfway through last year, emulating ND’s two-year stretch might have been a pretty good goal for Michigan. The head-to-head win in the series, and a path to an 8-4 record (and therefore, ridiculously, a BCS bowl) seemed to be well within ND’s grasp. Then, of course, they fell flat on their faces, getting GERGed and not even registering a first down against USC until the third quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s noted track record of success and actual support (in the form of opinions) from people in the know would certainly seem to imply that the Wolverines aren’t headed for an extended down period like the Irish may be.

With Michigan’s fairly unique situation last year, particularly for a first-year coach, they were set up for a pretty special kind of suck. Notre Dame’s 2007 team, in all honesty, shouldn’t have been. With a year under the RR regime, a hell of a lot more experience, and some new recruits coming in, the Wolverines should be disappointed with a season like Notre Dame’s. Of course, expecting much better might be setting up unreasonable expectations (8 winsis a reasonable goal).

Recruiting the State of Michigan

Coach Rodriguez came back to this point 4 or 5 times during the press conference, which seemed fairly telling. A lot of the local papers have accused the new coaching staff of forsaking the state of Michigan in favor of Florida and other southern states in which the coaches had connections during their tenure at WVU (or, for many of them, South Florida).  On first look, that may  appear to be valid, since there are only 4 players in the class from Michigan, and MSU snagged the better half of the state’s top 10 recruits.

Rodriguez addressed this bluntly a few times. At one point he said “people who say we don’t recruit the state of Michigan are way off-base,” and  “it’s the first place we look.” He mentioned that Michigan is the place where the first targets on the board come from.  He also said that he’s not going to take a Michigan kid just because he’s from Michigan. They’re going after guys who fit their system, and they’ll look in Michigan first, and go national if they can’t find what they need in the home state.

One reason for the lack of commitments from kids in Michigan is that the coaching staff hasn’t had the time to develop the relationships with the high school coaches. Coach Rodriguez’s coaches clinics have a good reputation, so this should turn around quickly. Expect Michigan to push hard after the big name in state prospects (Devin Gardner, William Gholston, et al).

Effects of a 3-9 Season/Negative Recruiting

This was another recurring theme during the press conference.  He said that some of the recruits had some questions about the season and the issues that the team faced. The struggles made some people a little wary, but Rodriguez also said that because of some of the weaknesses on the team, he was able to promise every recruit the opportunity to come in and immediately compete and make an impact.

He also said that negative recruiting often comes back and bites the person spreading the rumors. One example he gave was southern schools trying to scare kids by talking about the weather in Michigan. A lot of kids from Florida were braced for an Arctic expedition only to find it wasn’t as bad as they thought.

Obviously Rodriguez didn’t name any specific coaches, but at the beginning of his statement he made a statement to the effect of “there was a lot of negative recruiting out there we had to fight through.” He kind of pulled back a little bit and said that, in general, most coaches don’t do any negative recruiting. Usually it’s a young, over-ambitious assistant trying to reach.

Rodriguez, predictably, stated in no uncertain terms that neither he, nor anyone on his staff recruit negatively. He said, “if you got a good enough program to sell, why bash someone else’s?” Also, as previously mentioned, there is a real chance of backlash when recruiting goes negative.

Decommitments

This got brought up more than once, a lot of times by the reporters asking questions. Rodriguez said he “wasn’t surprised by anything on Signing Day.” This may be spin, but it was apparent that he had a pretty good idea of what was going down, especially with the two defensive tackles. He basically conceded that a commitment from a kid who is still taking visits doesn’t really mean anything; you still have to recruit him hard, since the commitment basically doesn’t exist.

He also said 2 or 3 time that “sometimes you want people to decommit, sometimes you don’t.”  I’m pretty sure he didn’t want both DTs to decommit, but it makes sense in the case of Jordan Barnes, DeWayne Peace, and their ilk. The offer still stands, but the communication and constant salesmanship flags until eventually the recruit realizes he is no longer wanted, and chooses someone else.  Seems a bit ethically dubious, but better than the alternative of over-signing. Recruiting is, in essence, seamy, so it’s all shades of gray to a certain extent.

If you have any specific questions about Rich Rodriguez’s portion of the press conference, feel free to leave them in the comments.

The biggest problem for Minnesota in 2007 was defense, and they ranked last in the nation in stopping their opponents. So what caused the turnaround? Minnesota recruited several JuCo players in the class of 2008, at least a couple of whom (Traye Simmons and Tremaine Brock) played key roles on the defensive unit. Also, Minnesota got Willie VanDeSteeg back after he was hampered by injury throughout the entire 2007 year.

One thing that this year’s Wolverines had in common with last year’s Gophers was turnover margin. The Gophers were 114th in the nation in 2007 in net turnovers, and Michigan’s team this year was 105th. Adam Weber reduced his interception total from 19 to 8 over the course of one year. With Michigan either returning Steven Threet or starting a true freshman, how much can the interception total (12) be expected to decrease. No, it wasn’t throwing picks that hurt Michigan this year, it was fumbling the football. Michigan lost 18 this year, so how can we expect that number to drop next year?

Minnesota’s offense in 2007 was actually pretty successful at moving the ball when it wasn’t coughing it up. In this way, the Gophers differed from Michigan 2008 in a pretty significant way. Michigan will have to rely an an upgrade at the quarterback position (Steven Threet staying healthy plus Tate Foricer entering should help) and along the offensive line (the group, which improved over the course of the year, returns all starters, plus adds a few redshirt freshmen who may be ready to contribute).

Minnesota last year may actually be the closest analog to Michigan this year. A new coaching staff installing new schemes on each side of the ball didn’t really have enough time with their team to get everything put together for a successful run in their first year. Michigan’s recruiting haul on the whole may not be quite so ready-to-play as MInnesota’s was last year.

Of course, Minnesota was vastly overrated this year, on the basis of a weak non-conference schedule and a soft schedule overall toward the beginning of the year. Toward the end of the year, they were exposed as something of a fraud. This will probably be what Michigan is like next year.

NFL DC
Robinson was the Defensive Coordinator of the Denver Broncos from 1995-2000, and served the same position with the Kansas City Chiefs the next 3 years. In Denver, Robinson’s defenses ranged from stellar to middle-of-the-pack. Of course, Robinson won Super Bowls in Denver in 1998 and 1999. His defenses there had a bizarre trend of alternating years being good against the run or against the pass. In Kansas City, Robinson’s defenses could be described as little other than abject failure. The Chiefs organization decided to focus on drafting and exceeding on offense, while somewhat neglecting the defensive side of the ball.

Texas DC
Robinson spent only 1 year as the defensive coordinator at Texas, and therefore it is important to compare that year (highlighted in burnt orange below) to the preceding and following year. Robinson slightly improved the defense overall in his year as defensive coordinator, but the year after he left, the defense suddenly became awesome. However, it is important to look at everything in context. The Longhorns’ offense was the Vince Young-led terror in 2005, and in 2004 Young was still developing as a quarterback, giving the opposing offenses more opportunity to possess and move the ball.

Syracuse HC
Following his tenure in Austin, Robinson became the head coach of Syracuse. His 4-year run in upstate New York was terrible (10-37), and it became clear that perhaps his skill set was not cut out to be a college head coach. Robinson was criticized for being a poor communicator and all-but-refusing to take the recruiting aspect of coaching seriously. However, Robinson was sent out with a bang as his Orangemen defeated the heavily-favored Irish of Notre Dame in a snowy affair in November.

Michigan DC
Wolverines fans hope that Robinson’s shortcomings as a head coach do not translate to his ability to be a defensive coordinator in college. His pedigree as an X-and-O guru (the NFL doesn’t hire just anyone, I promise) certainly is welcome. However, ex-DC Scott Shafer, coincidentally the new DC at Syracuse, was also known as a solid defensive theorist, but he was doomed by a lack of chemistry with the existing coaches on Michigan’s staff. If Robinson has similar issues, will Rodriguez realize that maybe his assistants from West Virginia aren’t the best position coaches for Michigan, or will the clocik have run out on his tim in Ann Arbor.

Pros: NFL experience (recruits love it, even if you can’t coach in colege to save your life: see Charlie Weis), history of success in NFL and (briefly) in college as a DC.
Cons: Epic fail as Syracuse HC, poor DC with second NFL squad, reportedly lacks great communication skills, not much of a recruiter, age.

In 2007, Alabama had a season that can only be described as “trying.” In Nick Saban’s first year, the Tide went 7-6, which was not exactly a historical low in comparison to other recent years, but was far from the expectations among fans in Tuscaloosa. However, Saban righted the ship in 2008, blistering out to a 12-0 start before succumbing to Florida in the SEC championship game and finishing 12-2.

Saban, however, had a much better framework in place for second year success than does Michigan (perhaps through no (or little) fault of Rodriguez). First, let’s take a look at the most obvious: the way season 1 turned out:

Saban’s Crimson Tide started 6-2, before losing their next four. In the bowl game, they got a bit of redemption by beating Colorado. Michigan, on the other hand, started 2-4 through the easy part of their schedule. The rest of the year would have been a scramble just to make a bowl game, whereas Saban’s team had one locked up a little more than halfway through the year. Of course, both Rodriguez and Saban failed in their first attempts against the team’s #1 rival in the last game of the regular season. Making a bowl at all, however, is a huge positive for a first-year coach. It establishes a baseline of success, and more importantly, it give him another month to install his system to the team. Rodriguez doesn’t have that luxury, and from the offense’s performance over the course of the year, he could have desperately used it. Alabama, while disappointing, was more ready for success the next year than most acknowledged coming into this season.

Another key factor is that of personnel. Both Rodriguez and Saban fielded fairly young teams in their first year at their respective schools. However, it looks like Saban may have the edge here as well:

Rodriguez will return a redshirt sophomore quarterback who started most of 2008. However, Steven Threet is regarded to be an imperfect fit for the Rodriguez offense, and two highly-touted freshmen are coming in for spring ball, and are expected to challenge for playing time, if not a starting role. Saban, on the other hand, returned a two-year starter (who also got playing time his freshman year) in senior John Parker Wilson. The Tide’s offense also returned four starters along the offensive line. While Michigan also returns several starters along the offensive line, their performance through 2008 certainly indicates that there will be changes, likely including some redshirt freshman starters next year. Alabama had highly-recruited players ready to step in, whereas Michigan lost nearly all of its best linemen (including the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft).

Defensively, the Tide returned few starters in 2008. Two players in the secondary and one each in the linebacking corps and along the defensive line is nothing to champion. Michigan, on the other hand, will likely lose at least 3 of its defensive linemen (the undoubted strength of the team), one linebacker, and its #2 corner. It appears as though Michigan’s defense, though it is looking to experience significant losses, may be depended upon to carry the team again next year. Of course, with a change in the defensive coordinator position, a sense of continuity from the defense cannot carry the team.

Regardless of returning personnel, Saban was more able to recruit immediate help with junior college players, a luxury Rodriguez will have in a much more limited capacity, if at all.

Aside from perhaps John Parker Wilson (a returning multi-year starter at QB – the most important position on the offense) or freshman phenom WR Julio Jones, Alabama’s MVP in 2008 was Terrence “Mount” Cody, a junior college transfer who stepped in and played a huge role for Alabama on the defensive line. Michigan may have some instant-impact players in their 2009 recruiting class, but they are undoubtedly less proven commodities than Cody, and are all but guaranteed to be less productive.

Coaching philosophy plays a role as well. Saban and Rodriguez have their similarities, but there are key fundamental differences as well.

Rodriguez is a believer in his system above all else, and believes he can win with whomever is on his team. Down the road, this may work well, especially once he gets some of his recruits in place. Saban, on the other hand, is a strong believer in “recruit, recruit, recruit” as a method for achieving success. Saban’s philosophy is less dependent on developing players and (especially when combined with the JuCos mentioned above) is more ripe for achieving instant success. Rodriguez’s different philosophy may in fact be more sound for long-term success, but it doesn’t mean the same thing for quick turnarounds that Saban’s does.

Alabama’s 2007 was less difficult than Michigan’s 2008, and the Tide were far more primed for second-year success than are the Wolverines. Don’t expect a miracle turnaround next season in Ann Arbor.

Okay, I have been waiting for Rich Rodriguez to make a splash in recruiting for two years.

All he has produced is Michael Shaw, who will be a solid contributor next season, and Tate Forcier, who is a virtual lock as the starting signal-caller.

OK, so now you understand exactly how stupid “analysis” on the internet can be. Last year alone Rodriguez landed the following: Martavious Odoms (led the team in receptions and receiving yards as a true freshman), Brandon Smith (expected to start at strong safety as a redshirt freshman, and would have played last year if he hadn’t had an appendectomy shortly before the season began), Terrence Robinson (expected to start at slot receiver as a redshirt freshman, and would have gotten serious playing time last year save a preseason injury), Patrick Omameh (an offensive lineman from Columbus who picked the Wolverines over Ohio State), Ricky Barnum (a former Florida commitment who is expected to start along the offensive line as a redshirt freshman). He landed several other players as well, but those are the highlights of his first recruiting class.

His second class? Michigan is currently ranked #8 in the nation by Rivals.com, #13 by Scout.com, with plenty of scholarships (as many as 8) still to hand out.

And I can’t pass up this gem:

Sam McGuffie would have been as good as Jacob Hester was his junior year at LSU. to Carlos Brown may not even get used at all as a feature back under the new regime.

Yes, speed back Sam McGuffie was exactly the same type of player as NFL fullback Jacob Hester. Carlos Brown was injured this entire year (like his entire career thus far), and got a chance to star against Northwestern. If you ever run across Joel Bradley on the street, please inflict as much physical harm on him as possible. Some people shouldn’t be allowed on the internet, much less given a platform to spew their idiocy. There is s ton more stupid in the article if you’re interested in torturing yourself.

Mr. Bradley, thy name is FAIL.

In 2004, Nebraska’s legendary football team was under the tutelage of first-year coach Bill Callahan. Callahan was replacing Frank Solich, who was a lifer in Nebraska, first coaching high school there, then being an assistant for 19 years under legend Tom Osborne, before replacing him in 1998. Solich was a multi-time Coach of the Year finalist, but after the huskers faded in 2002 and 2003, he was fired when AD Steve Pederson infamously stated “I refuse to let the program gravitate into mediocrity.”

This sounds similar to, if not quite the same as Lloyd Carr’s departure from Michigan. After several strong years with the program, the final days of his tenure saw 7-5 and 9-4 seasons, bookending an 11-2 year, and highlighted by losses to Minnesota and Appalachian State. Carr, though he was the protege of a legend, has become something of a Michigan legend himself, and left the Wolverines on his own term through retirement, rather than being fired and returning to the sidelines in Athens, Ohio.

Now that we’ve seen Rodriguez and Callahan entered their respective schools with somewhat similar situations, let’s take a look at what each man did before. Prior to becoming the headman in Lincoln, Bill Callahan had been an offensive line coach for Wisconsin in the early 90s, before becoming a coach in the NFL for 10 years. He was cited as an offensive genius in the west coast system, becoming offensive coordinator and eventually head coach for the Oakland Raiders. After two years as the Raiders’ had coach, Callahan was fired after going 4-12 in 2003. Rich Rodriguez’s situation here is entirely different. Rod has never coached in the NFL, and has been a head coach at nearly every college level. Most importantly, Rodriguez has never been fired for lack of performance by his teams. He has won at every single coaching stop.

In their first year at their respective schools, both men failed to achieve a bowl – which the fans, alumni, and administration found to be unacceptable. Even in the previous coaches’ worst years (a 7-7 effort in 2002 for Solich, and a 7-5 2005 for Carr), they had managed to make it to bowls, though neither won. Both were trying to install new offensive systems, coincidentally going in opposite directions (Callahan replacing the option with a pro-style offense, and Rodriguez replacing a pro-style offense with option schemes). The Nebraska offense was a cornerstone of their program, and even ingrained into the state identity. Was Michigan’s pro-style offense the same way?

The fundamental difference between Callahan and Rodriguez is an inability (or lack of desire) by Callahan to embrace tradition and run his team like an NFL franchise. Rodriguez, for all his faults, has done everything he can to try not to step on the traditions of Michigan, even if he’s needed a little prodding at times. He invited the 1968 team to speak to his Wolverines this summer, in contrast to Callahan’s ordering the removal of all the All-American plaques from Nebraska’s football offices. Even if Rodriguez doesn’t quite know all of Michigan’s traditions, he understands that they are important in the college game, and is trying to catch up as fast as he can.

Michigan is also upgrading its football program in numerous ways concurrently with the takeover of the Rodriguez administration. New facilities are going up, luxury boxes are being added to Michigan Stadium, and Rodriguez himself replaced a stagnant weight training program with one of the nation’s best Strength and Conditioning Coordinators in Mike Barwis.

In 2004, Nebraska as a program changed its whole identity. However, unlike the Huskers, I Michigan’s change is far more likely to be successful.

Shafer was in his first year as defensive corrdinator at Michigan, and the unit, which was expected to carry the offense through a rebuilding year, was unable to perform to expectations. The search for a new defensive coordinator will likely start immediately.

As someone who watched the games with something of an analytical eye, this move irks me somewhat. It appeared that players were often in position to make plays, but failed to wrap up their tackles, or made poor plays on the ball. At what point are players and position coaches responsible for poor safety and linebacker play?