6-29-09 Notre Dame gains commitment from Chris Badger. Minnesota gains commitment from Zac Epping. Illinois gains commitment from Andy Gallik. Iowa gains commitment from Matt Hoch. Indiana gains commitment from Jibreel Black.
6-30-09 Minnesota gains commitment from Kip Smith. Indiana gains commitment from Marlandez Harris. Michigan State gains commitment from Nick Hill.
7-1-09 Penn State gains commitment from Levi Norwood. Ohio State gains commitment from Roderick Smith. Minnesota gfains commitment from Mark Lenkiewicz. Indiana gains commitment from Matt Perez. Northwestern gains commitment from Paul Jorgenson.
7-2-09 Ohio State gains commitment from Drew Basil.

No change for Michigan.

The Nittany Lions grab Levi Norwood.

Notre Dame steals safety Chris Badger from Stanford.

Ohio State picks up a bigtime RBin Roderick Smith and kicker Drew Basil.

The Spartans pick up Nick Hill, who had previously been presumed a hige Michigan lean (until not receiving his offer at camp).

Big week for the Gophers as they snag 3 more commits.

Andy Gallik commits to the Illini

Nothing new for Wisco.

Iowa picks up

The Hoosiers add Xavier Whitaker, and he becomes their highest-rated commit. Should Northwestern be ahead of them? Not quite yet.

A decent QB joins the class for the Wildcats, along with a target for him to pass it to.

Oh my! A commit! Or 4.

QBs

Terrelle Pryor supplanted Todd Boeckmann from the starting position at Ohio State by the middle of last season, and will retain the starting role in 2009. It’s the backups that are more iffy with the loss of Boeckmann. Joe Bauserman is a 500th-year redshirt sophomore who played baseball a few years before coming to Ohio State. True freshman dual-threat Kenny Guiton will provide some depth.

Analysis

If Pryor goes down, the Buckeyes are Screwed-with-a-capital-S. Bauserman can throw the ball, of course, but Ohio State is going to have to rely on the playmaking ability of Pryor without a Beanie Wells-esque back. The top of the QB chart is very high, the depth is scary bad.

RBs

Beanie Wells bolted for the NFL after a junior year that was beset by injuries. Redshirt sophomore Dan Herron and true junior Brandon Saine will take over as the principal running backs, with a few players providing depth. Jamaal Berry, an incoming freshman, is a 5-star recruit, but will start the year in the doghouse after being arrested on a felony drug charge this spring.

Analysis

Herron should probably become the featured back, as he’s the slightly bigger and tougher of the two main options. Saine, on the other hand, is the speedier guy (who may excel in spread sets more). The Buckeyes will likely go for a bit of a thunder-and-lightning setup. If Berry is able to clear up his legal issues and participate this fall, he could be the heir apparent for OSU.

Receivers

“The Brians” are gone, and Dane Sanzenbacher will be the Designated White Receiver in Hartline’s stead. Ray Small is a slot option who has been in and out of the doghouse several times during his Ohio State career, and his status is unclear at this point. Sophomore DeVier Posey will likely step up and become the other wideout starter. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s WR Taurian Washington has been a ghost in Columbus. At TE, Jake Ballard will be the key option to not use.

Analysis

Ohio State has been just fine replacing starting wide receivers en masse several times over the past few years, but the talent level in the wings this time around doesn’t appear to be quite as high as it had been in those reloadings (both Brians were NFL picks). If Small can keep his spot on the team, the receiving corps is much better, so Ohio State fans should root for him to get his ass in gear. The OSU tight end position rarely sees the ball, so expect Ballard to mostly block.

Offensive Line

Alex Boone, he of the infamous drinking exploits, is gone from the left side of the line. Also gone is guard Steve Rehring. Mike Brewster, a true sophomore, will return as the starting center. Some Guy is a redshirt junior and will play left guard. At left tackle, sophomore Mike Adams will probably replace Boone. The right side of the line is intact with redshirt junior Bryant Browning at guard and redshirt senior Jim Cordle at tackle.

Analysis

The offensive line was a constant source of headaches for Ohio state fans last year, so unless something unexpected happens (I don’t believe in “addition by subtraction”), it can only improve marginally. Some Guy was going to be Michigan’s best lineman last year, so his presence in Columbus should upgrade the interior line. This should be a minor step back for the OSU offensive line (which, considering last year’s line, may be scary), but with the progress of Pryor, and less emphasis on pounding the ball, it shouldn’t hurt them too badly.

Offensive Analysis

The Ohio State offense is likely to live and die with Terrelle Pryor. The offensive line won’t be good enough to run the ball straight ahead without the threat of Pryor bootlegging off of it, so he’ll have to make plays running and passing the football if the Ohio State offense is going to have success. Lucky for the Buckeyes, he’s a very talented player. If he gets hurt, however, this could be an ugly, ugly offense to watch. The wide receivers are good, but not as much the playmakers they have been in the recent past. The running backs are good as well, but nobody’s going to worry about them leaving college early.

Ohio State Defense

Defensive Line

The Ohio State Defensive line returns every single player from last year except starting tackle Nader Abdallah. Cameron Heyward has played both tackle and end during his time in Columbus, and will be one of the starting defensive ends. He’ll be joined on the outside by linebacker convert Thaddeus Gibson, a redshirt junior. In the middle, redshirt senior Doug Worthington will start alongside the only newbie, junior Dexter Larimore. There is plenty of depth for the Buckeyes as well, with Nathan Williams and Lawrence Wilson on the edges.

Analysis

The DL should be very good. Only losing one starter, and replacing him with an experienced backup, is every coach’s dream. The pass rush and run-stopping abilities of the defensive line should be comparable to last year, if not even better (though last year’s pass rush was only OK). Scarier still, note that only Worthington is a senior. If this line returns intact again in 2010, they should be very, very good.

Linebackers

Marcus Freeman and James Laurinaitis are gone to the NFL, leaving redshirt junior Ross Homan as the only returning starter. Redshirt senior Austin Spitler is expected to take over in the middle for Laurinaitis. Junior Jermale Hines did much of his work on special teams over the past two years, but may be able to step into a role on the defense. Brian Rolle is in a similar position. Redshirt junior Tyler Moeller is more widely expected to take a starting role than those two, however.

Analysis

There are plenty of viable options for Ohio state at linebacker, though it’s difficult to predict they’ll be as good as a pair of guys who went in the NFL draft. Still, Ohio state has shown that they can find and develop linebackers, turning out stars year after year. There’s no reason to assume that, with a strong defensive line in front of them, this year’s crop won’t be at least acceptable, though to ask them to replicate the work of Laurinaitis and Freeman might be a bit much.

Defensive Backs

Corner Malcolm Jenkins left early for the NFL draft, along with Donald Washington opposite him. Redshirt junior Chimdi Chekwa got more than enough playing time last year to get him accustomed to being a full-time starter in 2009, and the other vacant position will be filled by senior Andre Amos, who missed much of lsst year with injury. The safeties both return, and seniors Anderson Russell and Kurt Coleman are good ones.

Analysis

Despite losing a pair of drafted players, the OSU secondary looks loaded as usual. The corners look to be the relative weakness. However, there is enough top-end quality to go along with the depth to make this a position of strength for the Buckeyes.

Defensive Analysis

The only possible weak spot on the Ohio State defense looks to be the linebackers. The DL and secondary return almost entirely intact, though the secondary took a slightly bigger hit than did the front lines. Expect this to be a standard excellent OSU defense, which we’ve become accustomed to over the years. The DL didn’t excel in getting to the QB last year, so the option-action pass might be a pretty good offensive strategy to use against them.

Special Teams

Ryan Pretorious and AJ Trapasso both depart Columbus as multi-year starters. Stepping up to fill their void will likely be redshirt seniors Aaron Pettrey at kicker and Jon Thoma at punter.

Analysis

Pettrey was a part-timer at kicker last year, and showed off his leg on long-distance kicks. He should be very good. Thoma, however, didn’t excel in his playing time, limited though it may have been. At best, he’s an unknown quantity for the Buckeyes.

Overall Analysis

There’s a reason that Ohio State is near the top of the preseason Big-10 picks every year. Jim Tressel and company really know how to build a program, and routinely have tons of dpeth on defense. Despite losing a few key layers from that side of the ball, they should take a lateral step more than a large step backwards, with backups ready to step in, and a very strong defensive line. Offensively, the Buckeyes had trouble for much of last year, and without Beanie Wells (who, to be fair, they didn’t have for much of last year) and some of their offensive linemen, there could be more trouble on the way. Pryor is key to moving the ball for the Buckeye offense.

Alas, I am an ignoramus when it comes to basketball recruiting, and I direct you to UMHoops for further education.

2010 Michigan Wolverines Recruiting Board

Moved PA DE/LB Ken Wilkins to committed. Commitment post. Local paper article. I didn’t really want to, but I’ll have to fisk:

The word on Wilkins? Well, a good source at Trinity who knows the football program well said Wilkins is talented, but isn’t as athletic as  Andrew Sweat, a Trinity linebacker two seasons ago who is now at Ohio State. “He doesn’t have the agility that Sweat had,” the source said.

Wow, a defensive end doesn’t have the same agility as a linebacker. You deserve a medal for figuring that one out, guy.

More Nike Camp recap from Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press. Relevant players include MI QB commit Devin Gardner:

the 6-5, 210-pound Gardner is dual-threat quarterback and many of his best attributes are not showcased in a non-contact camp setting. Still, Gardner showed that he has spent a good portion of the offseason working on his passing. His footwork is vastly improved and even though he still has an atypical throwing motion, he was able to make all the throws and did so with adequate arm strength and accuracy.

Livonia Stevenson’s Austin White took home the MVP honors at the running back position with considerable ease. The 6-1, 185-pound White was nearly unstoppable in the one-on-one portion of the camp, using his speed to outrun would-be defenders. White’s footwork and agility in the drills portion of the camp also solidified his MVP honors.

Although they did not take home MVP honors, Southeastern defensive linemen Johnathon Hankins and William Gholston both had good performances, too. The 6-3, 320-pound Hankins has put a lot of work into his conditioning this offseason and it showed in his performance Saturday. The 6-7, 240-pound Gholston is the state of Michigan’s top ranked prospect and his combination of size, speed and athleticism is hard to find anywhere in the country.

Other standout performers for the state of Michigan included Saginaw class of 2011 wide receiver DeAnthony Arnett, Inkster running backs/safeties Daniel and Nathan Lindsey, Ypsilanti Willow Run defensive tackle Garret Davis, Warren Fitzgerald linebacker Austin Gray, Cass Tech athlete Daniel Easterly, Lansing Sexton quarterback Taurean Jackson and Hartland 2011 wide receiver Matt Poches.

Removed OK AB/WR DeMarco Cobbs. He’s down to a top 8, which Michigan is nowhere near. He also plans to go down to a top five soon, so there’s little room to sneak onto his top list.

Shortly after a visit to Michigan for the Big House BBQ, and slightly opening the door on his recruitment, OH TE Alex Smith (seen at left) has fully decommitted from Cincinnati. Michigan will probably among the favorites to land his signature, as he’s been on campus multiple times. If they’re able to land Smith, it would certainly help with his teammate, LB Jordan Hicks. Hicks is one of the top linebacker prospects in the nation, and plans to graduate early. He has a top 6 list that he plans to reveal in short order. Ohio State and Texas are locks to be on the list, and Cincinnati will probably make it as well. Your guess is as good as mine for the last three.

MD OL Arie Kouandjio has landed a coveted Ohio State offer, and considering how selective they can be with offensive line recruits (though the results may not be there over the past two years), it certainly means he’s kind of a big deal. He plans to narrow his scholarship offers to a top five by the time his senior season rolls around.

Speaking of OL prospects (and one Michigan has a much better shot with), FL OL Torrian Wilson has modified his top 5, removing Tennessee in favor of… FIU? Lol Kiffin and whatnot. Alabama, Stanford, and Miami of Florida are the others in his favorites list, along with the Wolverines.

OH DE Darryl Baldwin is likely staying close to home when he ultimately selects a school. Though that immediately makes one think he’s likely to be a Buckeye, that’s certainly not set in stone. The original quote from his coach was “Everybody across the country was interested in him, but he’s a Midwest guy and he’s leaning towards staying close to home.” That sounds a bit more positive for coaches across the midwest, no?

Video fluff on FL LB Christian Jones. He still sounds like he’s going to Florida State, so I wouldn’t give him tooooo much thought.

I just added him Monday, but don’t expect GA LB Tyrone Cornileus to stay on the board long. He has a top 3-ish substance without Michigan in it, and he plans to make a commitment within a month.

MI S/LB Daniel Easterly will camp at Michigan in hopes to land an offer from the Wolverines. He hails from the developing Michigan pipeline of Cass Tech.

Removed LA S Ronnie Vinson, who committed to LSU. He spoke early about really liking Michigan, partially due to a connection to Adam Kraus. However, he hadn’t mentioned the Wolverines in a while, and was probably no longer a realistic option.

Added OH twins DT Terry Talbott and CB Terrence Talbott. Michigan has offered both of the brothers (info in header).

This may be weird coming from me, but how about some hoops-related recruiting news? 2009 commit Darius Morris will report to Ann Arbor on June 22 for enrollment in summer classes (info in header).

This update is getting FULL. The rest of the info will be saved for a Monday update.

• MCLA final v. Chapman may be the game of the year.
• Kelvin Grady on the football field (omg does he have a scholarship?)
• Dann O’Neill leaves the Michigan football team
• Basketball to play Kansas, Utah, UConn, BC this year
• Homecoming game v. Indiana scheduled for noon
• Anything else posted about (or not) this week

Let’s get it on.

In other stories over the weekend…

Softball, Golf bow out. The Michigan softball team, after a stellar season, lost to Florida and Georgia in the double-elimination format of the Women’s College World Series, ending their season. The team returns a strong core next year, as Shortstop Teddi Ewing is the only gaduating senior. Pitchers Nikki Nemitz and Jordan Taylor will return for the 2010 season, with hitters like Dorian Shaw and Angela Findlay providing the offense. The team will probably never have a repeat of the 2005 campaign, when they ripped of 31 straight victories, but next year’s squad should be a fun one to watch.

The Men’s golf team made a dream run into the match-play finals in the NCAA, before falling to Texas A&M in the semifinals. Michigan hadn’t made the NCAA Championships themselves in 12 years, so to make it into the match play rounds, and even win their quarterfinal against Southern Cal, was special for this team. Like their softball counterparts, this team is returning some important pieces as well. Super sophomore Lion Kim headlines a group of returners that should be very strong in 2010. Exiting seniors Bill Rankin and Nick Pumford were the team’s leaders, but other will hopefully be able to step up, and Kim will lead the team to (hopefully) another great year in ‘10.

Kelvin Grady, Come on down? Mark Snyder reports in the Detroit Free Press that Kelvin Grady, ex-Michigan point guard, may become Kelvin Grady, Michigan scat/slotback. Grady had discussed playing two sports with the coaching staff of Lloyd Carr, but nothing ever came of the football option. Now, with his departure from the Michigan basketball team, that optino may be back on the table. If such a thing does end up coming to fruition, it shall be interesting to see whether he decides to stick it out on the basketball court for at least one more year, since he’ll still be enrolled in the school.

Barbecuin’. Grills. Meat. Likin’ it. The Big House Barbecue recruiting event seems to have gone off without a hitch. There were no commitments at the time, which is probably slightly disheartening for some Michigan fans. However, the recruiting for a couple Michigan prospects may have hit overdrive, and there could be a decision or two in the coming days. More on that in this afternoon’s recruiting post. Stay tuned for it.

5-25-09 Notre Dame gains commitment from Alex Welch.
5-27-09 Michigan gains commitment from Jordan Paskorz.

Mild disclaimer: I’m not going to be super-diligent about checking all 3 rating services, except in the case of new commits or if the “OMG SCOUT 400″ is released.

Jordan Paskorz (hopefully) gets the defense train rolling for Michigan. Michigan’s got lots of commitments from slightly lesser-ranked guys, limiting their upside for the rest of the class. I’d be shocked if they finish the year at the top of this list.

No change for the Buckeyes.

Penn State passes Notre Dame, as their commit list is far more impressive overall at this time.

Notre Dame picks up a pretty good tight end in Alex Welch.

Antoine Lewis gets 3-star ranking from Rivals.

Nothing new for the Illini.

Lippett still unrated. ESPN ranks him higher than most of Michigan’s commits, which like, wow, you’re dumb.

Gray and Morris each get 3-star ratings from Rivals.

Zagzebski and Mason still the only Badgers holding it down.

Indiana grabs JuCo Andre Kates to get on board.

Northwestern, Purdue – 0 commits.

Games included: Iowa III, Purdue II, Iowa II, Minnesota I, Northwestern II, Michigan State, UConn, Purdue I, Minnesota II, Wisconsin II, Ohio State II, Northwestern I, Ohio State I, Penn State I, Illinois II, Iowa I, Indiana, Illinois I, Oakland, Wisconsin I, NC Central

Individual Players

The overwhelming majority of Stu’s shots came from the outside (which is not surprising at all). What is somewhat surprising is how infrequently he jacked up bad looks. Expect his chart to look pretty different next year, as the departure of every point guard currently on the roster will force Stu to play a little more point.

The casual Michigan Basketball fan can’t hate Zack Gibson enough (and there are a few legitimate reasons to not like his game), but he is actually a pretty darned good player at times. He can be a defensive liability, which obviously isn’t indicated on this chart, and he’s never going to dominate anyone offensively, but he is the quintessential role player.

The striking thing about Manny’s chart, especially in relation to everyone else on the team, is his shot selection. He shots a whole hell of a lot of bad looks. The reasons for this are multiple, and some are Manny’s fault, whereas others aren’t. Things that are his fault? Obviously, he needs to improve his recognition of what he’s getting himself into as he drives the lane, and not go for it, or dish after driving. Even when he gets up in the air, he can get enough hangtime to hopefully pass out. He also shoots a lot of poor 3-pointers, though he seemed to develop a touch for making them towards the end of the year (sadly, not encapsulated in this chart). Things that aren’t his fault include having to carry the load on offense, getting stuck with the vast majority of the team’s last-second chucks to beat the shot clock, not being able to draw a foul call to save his life (those are in the chart as “1″ attempts, even though many of them were definitely deserving of a call). With a hopefully improved roster next year, some of the external factors will go away completely or be reduced, and Manny could really improve his offensive efficiency.

He was never meant to be an offensive player, and his (in)ability to consistently shoot bears out why.

After a blazing start to the season, he hit something of a wall (as did the other two freshmen), shooting more and more poorly over the course of the season, with a few excellent games mixed in. Next year, he’ll probably have to play more of a slashing PG-type role, which he actually did very well at times this year, to the point where I was begging for it in certain games toward the end of the year.

I will repeat again that all three freshmen had their hot games and slumps. Novak is probably the most prone to this, because he was playing a position in which he was a physical underdog in every game, and was getting the hell beaten out of him on a regular basis. Next year, hopefully Cronin, Morgan, and McLimans will be able to give the team a little more size on a consistent basis, and Zack will be able to move to a more natural position.

I don’t think I went an entire UFR of a game Shepherd played in one time this year without making the following statement: “Quintessential Jevohn Shepherd. He shows off his great athleticism and stunning lack of basketball ability all at once.”

Among shots that fans can reasonably expect him to make (that is, those graded “2″ or “3″), he shoots ridiculously well. He also did a much better job than the team’s other star, Manny, of choosing his shots wisely. He would take big post defenders out toward the perimeter, or post up smaller mismatches. Sims has one more year to get even better, and with more big men on next year’s team, hopefully be entirely dominant next year.

At one point late in the season, he was actually leading the team in 3-point percentage. Like Lee, this sort of analysis isn’t going to make him look like a great player, because he does so little on offense.

This graph surprises me, because Kelvin was one of the few players on this team that I was absolutely convinced would make the shot any time I saw him shoot an open 3. His loss will be lamented, because it hurts Michigan in terms of PG depth (currently: none).

Man, I’m so over talking shit about Anthony Wright. His awesome performance in the Oklahoma game is not charted here, but he actually wasn’t as much of a “see the ball, shoot the ball” player as I’ve criticized him for (at least not in the second half of the season, when his minutes dropped off, which is what I’ve charted here).

One hundred million dollars of awesome. Puls made his first like 5 three-pointers, which also happened to be his first 5 field goal attempts. If he can get Barwisized in the off-season (seriously: have him work out with the football team), he could contribute down the road, because dude can certainly shoot.

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – University of Michigan men’s basketball coach John Beilein announced Thursday (April 2) guard Kelvin Grady (Grand Rapids, Mich./East Grand Rapids HS) has made the decision to leave the Wolverines basketball program and transfer to another school. Grady has not yet made a decision on which school he will attend.

“Kelvin has asked for his release from the program and we will grant that to him,” said Beilein. “Over the last two years, he has been a positive influence in helping build the foundation of our program. He is a wonderful young man on and off the floor. We wish him nothing but success in the future.”

“It’s been a wonderful experience both as a student and as a player here at the University of Michigan, but I feel I need a fresh start,” said Grady. “I love this university and want to thank the coaching staff, my teammates and everyone else who has supported me over the past two years. However, I have decided to explore other academic and playing opportunities at this time.”

In two seasons in Ann Arbor, Grady played in 64 games with 33 starts. He averaged 4.9 points, 1.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game for the Maize and Blue.

Speaking of whom, dude killed it tonight. Even if he reverts to Anthony Wright 2007-08 next year, I still don’t think I can make fun of him again, because he was a stone cold sniper in a tournament game. For Michigan. Anthony Wright. Seriously.

It’s a small miracle Michigan got to this point, much less gave a #2 seed one hell of a game. However, there’s a reason Blake Griffin is basically the consensus player of the year. He’s a damn good ball player. There’s also a reason opposing fans hate him, on top of the “beating the hell out of their team” thing. He acts like a bitch, is one of the cockiest players to ever not draw a taunting technical, is ginger, etc.

Getting to the NIT was a lofty goal for this team at the beginning of the season. Making the tournament was absolute gravy, despite what many people expected after wins over UCLA and Duke. Getting to the second round was just short of unbelievable, and we ran into a decent team with the best player in the country. So be it. Michigan in the tournament is crazy enough.

A more comprehensive basketball season wrapup is coming later next week, then you may return to your regularly-scheduled footballcentric programming.

A los barcos, hemos quemado.

Michigan takes on the Sooners of Oklahoma at 5:50 PM tonight on CBS in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Oklahoma is going to be a big favorite in this game, as should be expected of a 2-seed going up against a 10-seed. The Sooners are better than Michigan in nearly every facet of the game. In fact, the only area in which Michigan is expected to be better is not turning the ball over themselves. This means the Wolverines absolutely must hold onto the rock (and they did a decent job against Clemson), and hit the shots that they have open. Of course, the paint is going to be a very troublesome area for Michigan, as even Clemson’s non-all-everything players were able to get theirs and more from the lane. Oklahoma’s advantage in rebounding is surprisingly small to me, especially following the dismal performance on the defensive glass against Clemson. KenPom predicts a 73-67 Clemson win in a 65-possession game.

EEK! Blake Griffin! Who is the last guy that this Michigan team, what with their small size and inability to match up well in the paint wants? Why, a center who happens to be the leading candidate for most Player of the Year Awards! DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson’s ability to defend Griffin without fouling too much is of paramount importance in this game. Because of that, I expect to see a lot of 2-3 zone. The only other Sooners I know off the top of my head are Griffin’s “big” brother Taylor, and that point guard with the hideous hair decisions on both head and chin.

Yeah, so this is a really, really bad matchup for Michigan. I want to delude myself into thinking Michigan can win, but there’s no way I can convince the rational side of me. The success of the 2-3 zone is encouraging, and Oklahoma’s smaller rotation (only 7 players get significant playing time) certainly helps. Considering Griffin has been beat up of late, suffering a concussion against Texas toward the end of the regular season, and getting flagrantly fouled Thursday against Morgan State, the Sooners may wish they had spent more of the year developing depth. However, I’d rather predict a Michigan loss and be pleasantly surprised when they win than predict a win (foolishly) and be disappointed and wrong if they lose. So yeah, Michigan might be able to make this one close, but I really see this as a matchup of doom.

Important games today:

• Michigan baseball home opener 3:05 EDT at Ray Fisher Stadium. The Wolverines take on IPFW. Paul and I will be in the house, so stop by and say hey.
• Michigan hockey in the CCHA semifinals against Alaska. Yost Built has 10 Things to Know about the Nanooks.
• Michigan lacrosse against Eastern Michigan in their CCLA conference opener. 8PM at Oosterbaan Fieldhouse. Come support an awesome club varsity team. $3/6 for students/non.

Hockey Sophomore Louie Caporusso has been named a finalist for the Hobey Baker award. Great honor for the young player, though his torrid goal pace from the beginning of the year didn’t hold up.

Michigan Sports Center has your first glimpse at the 2009 student football shirt. For the record, I don’t mind the slogan on the back, more as a reminder to those who wear them than as decoration for other people to see.

Saturday’s basketball game against Oklahoma will take place at 5:50 PM EDT. Don’t forget to check out last night’s victory post, and I’ll have your preview of the Sooners coming tomorrow.

Speaking of posting previews on the weekend and such, I know the semi-regular schedule around here has gravitated toward “hectic and random” of late, but it’s a fairly busy time, what with the basketball team in the Tournament and all. Once they bow out, the football-centric Varsity Blue you know and love should return.

Recruiting Update coming this afternoon.

After Terrence Oglesby was ejected, and Michigan was able to take and sustain a double-digit lead for much of the second half, it seemed like the first round was in the bag, and it was on to Oklahoma (Or Morgan State, as the case may be). However, Clemson suddenly drilled a few 3-pointers, Michigan forgot how to break the press, though they’d been doing it with relative ease all game, and this one turned into a nailbiter. I immediately went from “go for the triple-double, Manny” to “hey, just win, baby.”

Until Stu Douglass came down with that final rebound, this one wasn’t over. I still might not believe the outcome until I see the Wolverines take the court against Oklahoma on Saturday. The Michigan Wolverines, who have not been to the tourney since 1998, are in the second round. The Michigan Wolverines, who started 3 different freshmen and 2 different walkons during this year, are 1 win away from the Sweet Sixteen.

Oliver Purnell, 0-6. John Beilein, 5-1.

Queme los barcos.

Michigan takes on the Tigers of Clemson at 7:10 PM tonight on CBS in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Clemson is favored by just about every imaginable source handicapping the odds of the game, so there must be a little more to these teams than a fly-by tempo free analysis. Michigan leads 5-4 in terms of categories with an advantage, though the Tigers have more total letters, with multiple-letter advantages in 3 categories. Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is going to be important in this game, so the Wolverines hope to shoot more like they did against Iowa than they did against, say, Illinois. Michigan’s ability to hold onto the rock (about which more in a second) should also play a big role in this game, and both teams are stellar on their end of the deal in that regard. KenPom predicts a 74-69 Clemson win in a 66-possession game.

The Tigers are a good matchup for Michgian in one key way: they aren’t very big. Whereas Michigan has struggled going against tall teams like Illinois and Michigan State, the Tigers start a 6-9 center (the same height as DeShawn Sims), and won’t be significantly bigger than Michigan at any position other than the 4, where Zack Novak will have to keep Trevor Booker, the leading rebounder for Clemson, off the boards. Outside of the starters, only one player (Junior wing David Potter) gets truly significant playing time, so the Tigers aren’t partilcularly deep, either. How have the tigers found most of their success this year? Forcing the opponents into turnovers using a 1-2-1-1 full-court press on defense. Michigan will need to be able to hang onto the ball against that pressure, leading some to speculate Kelvin Grady might see more playing time than we’ve become accustomed to of late.

Clemson is certainly a better team than Michigan, and they had more success in a better conference. However, John Beilein and Oliver Purnell have built up reputations of sorts for themselves in the NCAA tournament: Beilein does well, Purnell does poorly. Still, making it to the dance was a huge accomplishment for this Michigan team, and asking them to win one as an underdog might be too much to ask. Clemson will probably take the win (though again, I’m shocked at how close these two teams’ tempo-free profiles actually were), and the Wolverines will have to wait until Year 3 of the John Beilein era for their first tournament win.

The unfortunate part of this site is that, like many of the best things in life, it isn’t free. There are several subscription options, ranging from $10-100, each with different access to their variety of features.

The pick for the Clemson game gives the Wolverines a 46.4% chance to win by one metric, and 41.0% chance by the other. Two predictions of the final score by BracketBrains have Michigan losing by scores of 74.6-71.0 and 73.4-68.4. Should they advance, the odds against Oklahoma are pretty dire, indeed.

It’s a really cool site if you’re willing to shell out the cash, and I encourage you to give it a look-see, even if you don’t end up buying.

Enjoy!

Done? Alright. A few people have asked me how full Crisler was. There were probably between 1500 and 2000 people all sitting in the lower bowl on the East sideline. That area was pretty full, a few seats here or there, but fairly packed. Apparently, Beilein dind’t originally intend on doing a big event, but as he walked around and saw the cheerleaders’ and managers’ and students’ excitement, he realized that this meant a lot to the entire Michigan community. I’m glad he came to his realization, because it really was a special moment, and it was awesome to experience it with that many other people.

Our good friends at WOLV Student Television were there covering the event. For those of you who don’t know, this blog started out as a companion blog for the show Tim produced about Michigan football. Luckily, we’re still close with WOLV, and they were nice enough to share some pictures:

Furthermore, if you’d like to see some video of the celebration and some interviews, WOLV’s very own Kaitlin Urka put together this piece on the Selection Show event:

Thanks to WOLV for the media, and if you’re in the dorms you can catch original WOLV programming on channel 55.

I can’t remember how that game ended, except that Michigan was not able to win. I certainly didn’t understand what happened over the next few years as it came to light how much was wrong with the Michigan Basketball program.

Fisher left and Traylor picked Brian Ellerbe to be the replacement. Traylor left the following and Michigan truly began it’s decade of aimless wandering.  The teams and the players Ellerbe brought in couldn’t capture my interest, even though basketball has always been my favorite sport.  I really like Bernard Robinson Jr. and LaVell Blanchard, but they weren’t enough to get me into Michigan basketball.  In 2001 it looked like we might turn the corner.

Tommy Amaker was a hot coaching prospect. He had a good pedigree with his history at Duke and he took Seton Hall to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2002 he brought in Daniel Horton, Lester Abrams, Amadou Ba, Sharrod Harrel, Graham Brown and Chris Hunter. Horton beat out Dee Brown at Illinois for Big Ten Rookie of the year.  There was another great class brought in the next year.

There was a lot of excitement for these teams, and they often looked like they could make the tournament. I remember after they won the 2004 NIT people were talking about how Michigan won the 1984 NIT and then went on to become a number 1 seed in 1985.  That didn’t happen.

Amaker had six years and couldn’t get in the tournament with talent that has become the NBA Developmental League All-Star team.  I was surprised when it was announced that Amaker would no longer be the coach. I figured there would be one more year with the coming freshman class of Kelvin Grady, Manny Harris and Alex Legion.  Bill Martin decided to make a bold move in firing Amaker and made an incredibly safe decision to hire a coach with over 30 years of head coaching experience.

The first season was the painful square peg and round hole feeling that Michigan fans know a little too well by now.  The players didn’t look like they were getting the system, and some weren’t even trying.  In 2007, Michigan only won 10 games, and in many it looked like there was no way they could score.

Coming into this season, there were three seniors on the team, two of which started as walk ons.  There were 3 players over 6′9″, one red shirted, another played a total of about 10 minutes. At most points during the season Michigan started 2 freshman. Zack Novak was matched up against people 5 inches taller, 40 pounds heavier and with 3 more years of experience.  This should not be a tournament team.

Then Michigan beat UCLA. Most fans were brought back down to Earth by the Duke and Maryland games.  Then Michigan beat Duke and didn’t drop another out of conference game.  I had become used to Michigan dropping two or three games they shouldn’t have.  That didn’t happen. They made it to the conference season only losing to two good ACC teams.

The conference season was up and down, but the team was always in the game and always in the hunt for the Big Dance. They entered into their last four games needing to win two and they beat two tournament teams, Purdue and Minnesota.  The formula was then set: win one at the Big Ten Tournament and Michigan is likely in.  Michigan completely dominated Iowa, looking like they could beat anybody.  They then looked flat against a very efficient Illinois team.

The rational side of me had read all the great bubble breakdowns and knew that there is no reason Michigan shouldn’t be in, but at Crisler, with a few thousand other Michigan fans, I was still nervous. Coach Beilein didn’t reassure us with his pre-rally speech. It was good, but it had the sound of trying to cover the bases in case Michigan didn’t make it.

Once the show started, you could feel the crowed tense up just before every 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 seed were announced. After each bracket, the fear grew. There were a lot of bubble teams that I didn’t think would make it that did. The crowd grew a bit nervous, and nearly exploded when Minnesota was announced as part of the field.

They had gone through the top half of the last bracket, and the spots for Michigan was down to 2. I was already gearing myself up for disappointed. “If NCAA refs have been screwing over Michigan all year, why shouldn’t the NCAA selection committee?”.

Then Michigan was announced as the 10 seed in the South Bracket taking on 7 seed Clemson in Kansas City. Then,  this happened:

There was a huge sense of release from the crowd. people were jumping up and down and hugging, and it lasted well after CBS has cut away.  Beilein thanked the coaches; David Merrit addressed the crowd; the players led the crowd in singing the Victors.  Beilein and the players left the court to do their media interviews, and I walked home unable to wipe the smile off my face.

As I was walking up my block, there were some people running in to check Southwest Airlines to see how much it would cost to fly out to Kansas City.  It’s like a curse that has left a seemingly permanent malaise was finally broken.  It doesn’t matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament. This team has done something that, on paper, better Michigan teams couldn’t.

There’s excitement for Michigan basketball again. There were more people at this announcement than were at the Eastern Michigan game last year.

Like John Beilein said: “Making the tournament is only the first step.”  A step that he was able take in two years. I can’t wait to see what happens in the next two years.

]]> http://www.umvarsityblue.com/2009/03/a-decade-under-the-influence/feed/ 5 http://www.umvarsityblue.com/2009/03/preview-illinois-iii/ http://www.umvarsityblue.com/2009/03/preview-illinois-iii/#comments Fri, 13 Mar 2009 20:43:39 +0000 Tim http://www.umvarsityblue.com/?p=3377 Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.

When Last We Met…

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.

The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.

And…?

Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:

Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.

Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.

On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.

Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.

Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.

He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.

OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.

No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.

Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.

Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..

OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.

Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:

1. Figure out how many points losing team scores.
2. Figure out when winning team reaches this score.
3. Determine from game margin and time left whether winning team was running up the score.

Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.