QBs

The Hawkeyes entered 2008 with a QB controversy of sorts between Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi. There shall be no such controversy this year: Stanzi is the Manzi (oh god, did I really just type that?). The bigger question is who will back up the redshirt junior. Marvin McNutt is now a wide receiver, and Christensen has transferred out of Iowa City. Redshirt Freshman John Wienke, once a Michigan commitment, is the best bet.

Analysis

The Iowa QB situation improved a ton last year with Stanzi at the helm. He should continue improving, and be among the better signal-callers in the conference this year. Behind him, there might be trouble, as there is virtually no experience with Christensen gone.

RBs

Shonn Greene was, for my money, the best running back in the country last year. Stepping up to replace him will be sophomore Jewel Hampton, who looked pretty good as Greene’s backup last year. Walkon Paki O’Meara and Jayme Murphy will also get some action.

Analysis

Jewel Hampton is not going to be Shonn Greene. End of story. I’m not going to sit here and go all “losing Shonn Greene doesn’t hurt, because Jewel Hampton is AT LEAST as good” Rittenberg-style. Hampton will fill in for the Hawkeyes, and will probably provide more speed to the RB position, but likely less power and vision. That’s to be expected from a young player, and by the end of the year, he should develop into a good option. I will bet each and every one of you infinity dollars that he will not outdo Greene’s Doak Walker-winning year. I am not stupid, you see.

Receivers

Darrell Johnson-Koulianos has been in the doghouse a bit this summer, allowing other players like former QB Marvin McNutt to get some serious reps at wide receiver. DJK will still likely be the go-to guy as a redshirt junior, and senior Trey Stross will be the Inexplicably Great White Iowa Receiver in the absence of Andy Brodell. Still, it’s the tight end that looks to drive this passing game, and if redshirt senior Tony Moeaki can stay injury-free (albeit for the first time in his Hawkeye career), he’s a really good option.

Analysis

For all his whiteness, Andy Brodell was a really awesome wide receiver, and losing him will certainly be a hit. However, if DJK can stay in the coaches’ good graces, and Stross can step up to a starting role, the wide receivers should be decent enough. If McNutt can be a good third option on the edges, that’s probably gravy for a Hawkeye passing attack that has a number of smaller contributors, and a darn good TE in Moeaki. If Tony can stay healthy, he’ll be able to stretch the middle of the field, opening things up on the outside, and even in the running game.

Offensive Line

Lineup

Center Rob Bruggeman and right guard Seth Olsen depart, but the other three starters return for the Hawkeyes. True junior Bryan Bulaga will man the left tackle spot, redshirt junior Julian Vandervelde will play left guard, and 5th-year Kyle Calloway played right tackle last year. The two spots up for grabs are likely to go to 5th-years Dan Doering at right guard and Rafael Eubanks at center. The backups for Iowa will include Reilly Reiff, Markus Zusevics, and Kyle Haganman.

Analysis

The line returns mostly intact, though Olsen was good enough to be drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft, and Bruggeman got some looks of his own, and signed a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Still, the Hawkeyes who return aren’t without some acclaim themselves. Doering was an Army All-American whose career has been sidetracked by injuries over the years, and Rafael Eubanks will also probably make it into the NFL draft with a good senior year. The incentive for those two to prove their worth to the NFL (on top of their inherent talent, of course), along with the remaining members of the line returning from last year’s campaign, means that the Hawkeye OL will probably be about as good as last year’s, and there’s a chance it could be even better.

Offensive Analysis

Losing Shonn Greene will hurt, but a stabilized QB situation, another strong offensive line, and some weapons in the passing game will all help the Hawkeye offense improve next year. Andy Brodell, despite his injuries over the years, was an explosive weapon, so Iowa will need to either spread the wealth or find a playmaker to take his spot. If Tony Moeaki and the offensive line can stay healthy, however, the Hawkeye offense could be a well-oiled machine in 2009.

Iowa Defense

Defensive Line

Mitch King and Matt Kroul leave the middle of the Hawkeye defense, and replacing the tackles will be a tall task. I wouldn’t be surprised if junior Christian Ballard continued adding weight (he was already listed at 285 on the spring roster) and moved inside permanently, giving Broderick Binns, a redshirt sophomore a full-time role on the edge. That still leaves one defensive tackle spot, which will likely go to [hilarious adverb goes here]-named Karl Klug, though he’s a bit undersized. The most certain role on the defensive line is for Adrian Clayborn, who flashed some star power last year as a redshirt sophomore at DE.

Analysis

Sure, there are bodies available to fill the holes left by Kroul and King, but will they be as good as the two departed players? Neither was drafted, but they were excellent college DTs. Without them at the heart of the defense, the outside rushers will probably have a bit of an issue. Still, the defensive line might have some real penetrating power with a couple undersized quicksters both inside and out. Will they be easily manhandled by bigger, stronger offensive lines though?

Linebackers

Redshirt senior Pat Angerer and redshirt junior Jeremiha Hunter will be the key pieces of the Iowa linebackers corps. True senior AJ Edds completes the returning trifecta. Most of the backups, including Jacody Coleman and Jeff Tarpinian return, giving Iowa not only marquee starters, but also depth.

Analysis

The linebackers were pretty good last year, and unless the new defensive linemen can’t manage to keep them from getting blocked, there’s no real reason that they shouldn’t be even better in 2009. The entire 2-deep returns, and they should all be a year more seasoned.

Defensive Backs

Redshirt junior Amari Spievey is expected to have a breakout, star-making year at one of the corner positions. Redshirt junior (and former walkon, in case it wasn’t already apparent he was white) Brett Greenwood returns at strong safety. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Sash, similarly melanin-deficient, will probably be the other starting safety. David Cato, a true sophomore, will probably start at the vacated corner position. Shaun Prater, who got some DB reps in 2008, has moved to wideout.

Analysis

For all the ragging on Greenwood last offseason, he actually turned in an honorable-mention in the All-B10 media awards. The other pieces return mostly intact, except for Bradley Fletcher, a third-round pick in the NFL. If Cato can step up and replace Fletcher at least with some degree of adequacy, the Iowa defensive backfield should be pretty strong. Still, a step back might be in order, as the Hawkeyes lost the man who looks to be the best NFL prospect. Only Spievey, among the returners, looks to be a good candidate to make it to The League.

Defensive Analysis

Stopping the run and pressure on the quarterback are two of the biggest keys to a defense, and Iowa lost two big pieces of that puzzle in Mitch King and Matt Kroul. However, nearly everyone else of note returns, so there should be steady improvement in the Hawkeyes’ already-good (#12 in the nation) defense. They should be able to get it done. Against Michigan, the inside running of Brandon Minor, and trying to spread the field to keep experienced linebackers either on the sideline or out in space, will be the Wolverines’ best bet to score.

Special Teams

All of Iowa’s specialists return. They ran with 2 kickers last year, and that will probably continue into next season.

Analysis

Ryan Donahue is a mediocre punter, but he might get a little better next year, unless he is worn out from punting more often than last year in a sans-Greene offense. Daniel Murray was primarily the long-distance kicker in 2008, though he didn’t seem to be nearly as consistent as Mossbrucker. I don’t see why the Iowa coaches wouldn’t continue going with the platoon system as long as it’s working.

Overall Analysis

For some reason, I had been down on Iowa coming into the offseason. Mostly Shonn Greene, probably. However, I’m now basically convinced that they will at least contend for the Big Ten title. Nearly everybody comes back on defense except two tackles and a corner, and considering the trajectory of some other players (i.e. from walkon to HM All-Conference in two years), they should be able to improve at every position group, save DL. The offense will be a little weaker without Shonn Greene and Andy Brodell, but an experienced offensive line should be able to move the ball and protect the passer. As long as Iowa stays healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win the Big Ten. Of course, road games at PSU, MSU, and OSU should be a hindrance, but this is a strong ans experienced team.

Western Michigan
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 MAC)
Key losses: S Louis Delmas, LB Austin Pritchard, WR Jamarko Simmons
Key returning players: QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West
Projection: Same. Sure, teams lose players to the NFL every year, but it’s not fair to the Broncos (nor would it be to basically any MAC team) to assume they’ll be able to replace a second-round pick in the secondary. However, the offense should really continue trucking behind the QB play of Tim Hiller. The Broncos should be about the same as they were last year, though they’ll rely even more heavily on a high-flying offense to make up for a much weaker defense.

Notre Dame
2008 Record: 7-6 (0-1 Syracuse)
Key losses: WR David Grimes, S David Bruton
Key returning players: QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Armando Allen, WR Golden Tate
Projection: Up. Based on roster composition alone, the Irish should be pretty rockin’ this year. One impoortant caveat: you could say that about the last two years as well, and they were somewhere between terrible and mediocre over each of the previous two seasons. Is Charlie Weis just one big, fat FAIL, or will he start to get the talent he has assembled to perform? There’s no excuse (lol book title/disingenuous motto) for the Irish to not beat up on most of their schedule this year.

Eastern Michigan
2008 Record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)
Key losses: RB Terrence Blevins, WR Tyler Jones, LB Daniel Holtzclaw, S Jacob Wyatt
Key returning players: QB Andy Schmitt, WR Jacory Stone, LB Andre Hatchett
Projection: Up. The Eagles return some key pieces, though they also lose some important ones, the upgrade at the head coaching position appears to be a substantial one. Eastern was terrible last year, save the upset of Central Michigan in their final game of the year, and even anything approaching competency would be a leap in the right direction.

Indiana
2008 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Marcus Thigpen
Key returning players: QB Ben Chappell, QB/WR/? Kellen Lewis, WR/CB Ray Fisher
Projection: Same. You can tell the Indiana coaching staff is really grasping at straws in an effort to not get fired at the end of this year. They’re moving key players around (2nd-leading receiver Ray Fisher to corner, best offensive weapon Kellen Lewis all over the field, etc.), and completely revamping their schemes (reports say they’ve almost exclusively worked out of the pistol this spring). If it doesn’t work, Bill Lynch and co. are probably going to get the axe.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)
Key losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, S Otis Wiley
Key returning players: LB Greg Jones, WR Mark Dell
Projection: Down. The Spartans were beneficiaries of a bad Big Ten and some good luck last year. They were more like a 7-6 team than the 9-4 that they actually went. Take away 3 of their 4 most important players (the fourth is Jones), and they should be worse. Take away that luck, and they’re just a team. Adam Rittenberg will still predict that they win the National Championship.

Iowa
2008 Record: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Shonn Greene, DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul,
Key returning players: WR Andy Brodell, LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, QB Ricky Stanzi
Projection: Same. The Hawkeyes lose arguably their three most important players in Greene (no, Rittenberg, you can’t just baselessly say “I think Jewel Hampton will be at least as good as they guy who won the Doak Walker Award”) and the defensive tackles. However, they upgrade slightly at almost every other position, and assuming they can stay healthier than they have in the past couple years, they should be about as good as they were in ‘08. Of course last year, they were something of an anti-MSU, and lost a couple games they shouldn’t have. The Hawkeyes will be about the same quality of team, but the record may improve.

Delaware State
2008 Record: 5-6 (5-3 MEAC)
Key losses: QB Vashon Winton, RBs Chris Strother and Kareem Jones, LB Kevin Conner
Key returning players: DB Avery Grant, WR Laronne Moore
Projection: Down, down down. For a team that wasn’t even good to begin with, losing 3 of your top 5 tacklers, your 4-year starter at QB, and your top 3 running backs can be little other than a recipe for disaster. Delaware State is a true 1-AA cupcake, and will be even worse this year than they were in 2008.

Penn State
2008 Record: 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: WRs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, 3 offensive linemen
Key returning players: QB Daryll Clark, RBs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, LB Sean Lee
Projection: Down. The Spread HD worked in 2008 because Clark was on-point all year, and the Lions had the skill position talent on the outside to force defenses to spread the whole field. With Clark tailing off in the last few games (albeit due to injury, perhaps), and the OL and wideouts gone, PSU won’t be the offensive force that they were last year. Defensively, the return of Sean Lee should help in the middle. However, the top 3 defensive ends left, and #4 is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Illinois
2008 Record: 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: LB Brit Miller, CB Vontae Davis, WR Will Judson
Key returning players: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, LB Martez Wilson
Projection: Same. Like Iowa, the record might improve, but the team will be about as good in 2009. The offense should really click with a senior Juice Williams and junior Arrelious Benn, though you could have said the same last year (and the Illini were awesome at times, just horrifically inconsistent). The defense should take major steps back with its best two players, LB Brit Miller and Vontae Davis, gone and the third best player, LB Martez Wilson, doing things like getting stabbed in a bar during the offseason.

Purdue
2008 Record: 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten)
Key losses: QBs Curtis Painter and Justin Siller, RB Kory Sheets, WRs Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy, LB Anthony Heygood, S Torri Williams
Key returning players: S Joe Holland, QB Joey Elliott
Projection: Down. Purdue sucked last year, and nearly all of their best players are leaving town because their eligibility has expired (everyone but Siller) or because they cheat on exams (Siller). Couple all that with a transition to a new offensive scheme and a plan to rely on several true freshmen despite their lack of guru approval, and Danny Hope’s first year in West Lafayette may be a difficult one. There could be a coaching upgrade as Wilford Brimley had been mailing it in the past couple years, but there is basically no talent for the Boilers to work with.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB PJ Hill, TEs Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Key returning players: QB Dustin Sherer, WRs David Gilreath and Nick Toon, LB Jaevery McFadden
Projection: Up. The Badgers were a team that lost plenty of games they shouldn’t have, and the important question for tham is whether that was bad luck or the horrifically bad coaching ability of Bret Bielema. The early appearances are a bit of both, so the Badgers should be a bit better, but not by leaps and bounds. Hill wasn’t even Wisconsin’s best RB for much of the year, and Sherer was the better QB, despite Allan Evridge starting the year under center. Simply getting the right pieces the ball more often should help. I think Bielema has a definite ceiling, especially with players he has recruited and coached for four year.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 10-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Beanie Wells, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline
Key returning players: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, CB Chimdi Chekwa
Projection: Down. The Buckeyes really should have been awesome last year, and might have been if Terrelle Pryor had started the whole year, and not been a true freshman. Alas, this was the case, and OSU’s last best chance at a national title for the next couple years leaves town with Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Regardless, the Buckeyes are never going to fall completely off the map as long as Jim Tressel is the coach, so there’s a definite floor for their team. either way, they’ll take a significant step back in 2009.

Ferentz said Iowa will be playing three night games during Big Ten play: at Penn State (Sept. 26), vs. Michigan (Oct. 10) and at Michigan State (Oct. 24). 

Members of a certain subset of Michigan fans are undoubtedly saying “How come they’ll play 3, and we aren’t even willing to play a home night game once!” Stay calm, fans (and stop with the idiotic petitioning), it will happen sooner or later, and you’re wasting your breath for now, as the earliest Michigan will play a home night game is when the stadium renovation is complete for the 2010 season.

I’ve had a really busy weekend full of umpiring and school related things, so this was pushed back a day.  Just a reminder, Michigan is at home today (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday) at 3:05pm for a pair of mid week games again Bowling Green and Oakland respectively.  Get out and support the baseball team! –FA

Game 1

W – Chris Fetter (4-1) L – Schatz (1-1) Sv – None

The team sputtered out of the game, collecting several hits, but never having the big inning. In the first inning, Iowa start Nick Brown went 1-2-3 through the top of the order on just 13 pitches.  Cislo, who is ranked nationally for fewest strikeouts per at bat, and Fellows both K’d to start the game, and LaMarre was robbed of a single by Brown who showed he can also field his position well, grabbing a line shot right at him.  Chris Fetter even came out in this game looking a little shaky.  Fetter gave up 3 hits (one double) and a walk in the inning, allowing 3 runs – all earned.  Iowa came out swinging but Michigan wasn’t going down without a fight.

In the top of the second, Michigan answered right back, capitalizing on a Hawkeye error to open the inning.  The tone was set on the opening pitch of the inning when Mike Dufek lined a hard grounder at the first basemen, who couldn’t come up with the ball.  McLouth followed up with a single and Oaks walked to load the bases, setting up John Lorenz with a big RBI opportunity.  Lorenz fell short of the RBI, but in name only.  Dufek would score when Lorenz grounded into a 6-4-3 double play (double plays negate RBIs).  Timmy Kal closed out the scoring in the 2nd with an RBI single to score McLouth.

Fetter also came out more focused in the second inning.  Over the next 8 innings (yes, he threw a complete game), Fetter would allow only 2 more base runners, both from singles; one of those base runners was caught stealing, therefore only causing Fetter to face 25 batters in 8 innings.  Fetter was absolutely dealing.  He struck out 9 batters on the day while inducing 10 ground ball outs.  That’s a pretty solid total.  He’s definitely the player of the game.

Michigan got the go ahead run in the 8th after starter Nick Brown was relieved by Schatz.  Schatz didn’t give up a hit in the inning, but he did have two hit batsmen and a walk, allowing Kevin Cislo to fly out just deep enough into center to get pinch runner Nick Urban in safely.

I think Coach Dahm at Iowa explained it least best:

“We didn’t make many mistakes tonight, but the mistakes we did make they (Michigan) capitalized on them.

Yeah Coach, that makes a ton of sense.

Notable Stars

• Chris Fetter – 9 IP, 3 ER, BB, 9 K, CG, W
• Mike Dufek – 2/3 RBI, R, 2 BB

Notable Goats (stretching for these)

• Kenny Fellows – Only player not to reach base
• Jake McLouth – Stranded 4 runners

Other Notes

• Iowa Press-Citizen – Iowa put up a fight but was no match for Fetter
• The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, IA) – Iowa played tough and is getting better, still not good

Game 2

W – Turnbull  (1-0) L – Eric Katzman (3-2) Sv – Schurz (3)

The weather went cold and so did the bats.  This game was a pitchers duel from start to finish, with neither team appearing particularly loose.  Michigan had their chances, stranding 1st and 3rd in the 2nd, being picked off at third with a runner at first in the 3rd, stranding runners at 2nd and 3rd in the 5th, and stranding runners at 1st and 3rd in the 7th for a total of seven left on base.

It seemed like Michigan could never get going unless there were already two outs in the inning.  Of those innings where we stranded multiple runners (or were picked off in the 3rd), all 6 runners reached base with two outs.  Only in the 7th were we able to string enough hits with two outs to score a run.

Two players were charged with 6 of the total LOB, Toth (4) and Kalcyznzki (2).  While Kalcynzski will do this from time to time, Toth generally doesn’t leave that many on base.  Part of what contributed to this problem was Coach Maloney moving him back into the 2-hole, reversing the switch from the Akron game.  It appears with the recent success Toth has had, and the slight slump Fellows was facing going into this game, Maloney wanted to try and spark the offense.  So much for that idea, huh?  FWIW, Coach did switch them back in game three, the results of which are forthcoming.

On the mound, Katzman had a pretty damn good game.  He went 6 1/3 innings, givnig up 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9.  That is a little bit better than your normal Katzman, so Coach has to feel good about that.  Matt Miller and Tyler Burgoon came in relief of Katzman.  Miller only faced one batter, walking him.  Burgoon then came in, walked a batter, then threw a wild pitch, allowing the second run of the game to score (Katzman’s runner).

For Iowa, their starting pitcher, the freshman Hippen pitched a great game.  The lefty has the build to be a good starter, especially if he can get some support around him.  We’ll be seeing much more of him in the next 3 years.

Notable Stars

• The Pitching Staff (Katzman, Miller, Burgoon) – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K

Notable Goats

• The offense – 6 H, 1 R, 12 K
• Toth – NEVER END AN INNING GETTING OUT AT THIRD BASE

Other Notes

• BTN.com – Iowa played well today, Hippen will be good

Game 3

W – Travis Smith (4-2) L -Freie (2-2) Sv – Burgoon (3)

The good news is we won and the top half of the order decided to make up for the lack of production in game 2 with a huge effort in game 3.  The bad news is the radio broadcast was cut out due to technical difficulties. Blast – but I’ll take the win, even if its with a temporary snow fence in the outfield:

Because of the snow, and how it affected the non-covered warning track, a temporary blue construction-like fence was put in place to eliminate the warning track from the field of play, shortening Banks Field anywhere from 14-18 feet.

Mike Wilson started this game, but couldn’t make it out of the 3rd inning.  His first inning was solid, his second inning he escaped trouble, but things fell apart in the third.  In the inning he allowed three hits and a walk for a total of three runs.

Travis Smith entered here and did very well.  Over the next 4 1/3 innings, he’d only give up one unearned run on 2 hits, a walk, and 3 strikeouts.  I’m wondering if the last two appearances won’t get him a bid back into the starting rotation.  He’s done fairly well in the long relief behind Wilson, but the fact we are forced to go to long relief behind Wilson may signal the end of Mike’s stint in the Sunday starter role.

Burgoon also made an appearance in this game, working the final two innings to earn the save.  Burgoon did pretty well despite the run scoring.  He gave up a lead off double followed by two ground outs, the second of which scored a run.  He induced 5 ground balls and struck out a batter.  You can tell Burgoon is on by the higher ground ball to strikeout ratio.  He tends to have a bit more bite on his slider and keeps it down, while his fastball cuts downward slightly.

On offense, Coach Maloney switched Fellows and Toth back into the 2 and 9 hole respectively.  I think Fellows got the message from Maloney that he needed to produce.  Kenny went 4 for 5 on the day with 3 runs and 2 RBIs.  Monster game for Fellows.

Cislo consistently set up Fellows in the right situations, going 2 for 4 with a walk and 3 runs.  LaMarre followed up nicely after Fellows going 2 for 4 with a walk, and Mike Dufek did some cleaning up… in the clean up spot… with a 3 for 5 day and 3 RBIs.  Other than Toth’s 1 for 4 with a run, the rest of the lineup was silent.

Something I found peculiar was Alan Oaks being pulled from the game in the second inning.  He had just struck out (0/2 2 Ks), so I’m not sure if he was being pushed to the bench for his recent lack of offensive production or if he hurt himself.  I sent a quick email to the booth, but they weren’t quite sure what happened either.  We’ll see what sort of playing time he gets the next two days, then we’ll know for sure.

Between Oaks, his replacement Aspinwall, McLouth, Lorenz, and Timmy Kal, the bottom middle of the lineup went a combined 0 for 18 this game.  Toss in Toth and its a whole 1 for 22.  So… Is Nick Urban still sick or what?  Berset can’t get that hand healed fast enough.  We definitely need a kick in this area of the lineup.  It’s been plagued with inconsistency.

Notable Stars

• Top 4 in the Lineup – 11/18 6 R, 5 RBI, 2B, 3 SB
• Travis Smith – 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Notable Goats

• Mike Wilson – 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 2 K
• Defense – 3 errors? are you kidding me?
• Anthony Toth – Unearned run from a fielding error, separate throwing error

Other Notes

• Michigan Daily – Weekend Recap, we’re scrappy, glad the running games going.  I fully expect anyone who reads that article to make a comment about David Eckstein.

Wrap Up

So we finished the weekend 2-1 which has us tied for 2nd place in the BigTen behind Illinois and tied with Ohio State.  That’s a pretty good start.  I think we really needed to sweep this weekend though.  I don’t think it will cost us a spot in the tournament by any stretch, but every win will be important this season with the stiff competition forming.  Iowa probably wont finish any higher than 7th in the BigTen this year, and that may be generous.  I pegged them for 8th before the conference season began.  Like I said, we really should have swept, but the stranding runners and making meh pitchers look great caught up to us again.  Blame the cold weather, the bus trip, whatever.  It’s gone now and all the boys can do is continue to work hard to win more games.

Next weekend we get a step up in competition with Penn State at home.  The Nittany Lions are a middle of the road BigTen team, I’d place around 5-7th place range.  They have some quality pitching, but don’t quite have the hitting prowess.

As for today (Tuesday), we face Bowling Green at the Fish at 3:05pm.  Tomorrow (Wednesday) is Coach Maloney’s former program Oakland.  I’ll try to get some sort of preview out by the game, but I’ve been swamped by things the last two days (hence this being late as it is).

Getting ready to board the bus for Iowa and hoping the weather man is wrong about the 2 inches of snow there Saturday!

As a last little bit of information going into the series, I’ve compiled all our current players past performances against the Hawkeyes.  The chart after the jump is listed first by Michigan Hitters, then followed by Michigan Pitchers.  The player order is by first appearance.  So for example, Cislo was the only player to appear in the 2006 series, so he shows up first on the chart.

I’m not sure if I’ll have this for each Big10 opponent, but I’ll try to get it out.  It’s time consuming to gather it information and then chart it all out.  I had planned to do the Purdue team against Michigan, but yeah… no.  Besides, who cares about them anyway?

A few of the stand outs:

• Cislo is batting .500 for his career against the Hawkeyes with 8 runs and 14 hits in just 11 games.
• Chris Fetter is 1-1, but has a complete game (7 innings) with 18 Ks in 19 innings.
• Ben Jenzen is 2-0 in 3 appearances, pitching 5 innings while giving up 4 runs (only one earned).
• Burgoon earned his first career win against the Hawkeyes in an extra inning game last year, going 2 shut out innings striking out 2.
• As a team (just current players), we are 11-1 against the Hawkeyes.

Full Chart after the jump

from hawkeyesports.com

5pm Friday, 2pm Saturday, 2pm Saturday (all EDT)
Duane Banks Baseball Field
Iowa City, IA

Media Game 1: Live Stats and Audio
Probable Starters Game 1: Chris Fetter (3-1) vs Nick Brown (1-1)
Media Game 2: Live Stats and Audio
Probable Starters Game 2: Eric Katzman (3-1) vs Josh Hippen (1-0)
Media Game 3: Live Stats and Audio
Probable Starters Game 3: Mike Wilson (1-0) vs Wes Freie (2-1)
Series: Michigan leads 97-42
Last Meeting: Michigan sweeps 4 at Home in 2008
Last Michigan Loss: 2007 at Iowa (Michigan took 3/4)

Overview

Iowa is a team expected to finish near the bottom of the Big10 this year. So far this season they are 8-10, with an RPI of 235 (boyd’s world). They do have one good win at Louisville, the middle game of their 3 game set, winning 2-1.

The Hawkeyes have used many looks for their batting lineup so far in an attempt to create some offensive cohesion. They, like Michigan, have been hitting pretty well, but have struggled in putting it together to score runs. Overall, the Hawkeyes rank #138 in team batting average and #119 in scoring.

Pitching hasn’t been good. The team ERA is 6.73, good for 216th in the NCAA. Strikeouts also come at a fairly slow pace, just 6.6 per nine innings. This team, much like several others we’ve played recently, just isn’t that good.

Even Coach Dahm has begun using things like “it doesn’t matter if we win or lose.” He did a video interview with the Daily Iowan full of quotes coaches from struggling teams have.

The Field

The Hawkeyes play at Duane Banks Baseball Field, situated on the west side of campus near Carver Arena and Kinnick Stadium. Home plate faces north by northeast, meaning with the north wind coming in this weekend, not many balls are going to carry out of the park. The dimensions of the field are nearly symmetrical, with the lines being 330 feet, the power alleys at 375 feet, and straight away center being 400 feet. The fences are a little tall at 10 feet, but that’s not all that unusual. Along with the aforementioned wind, rain and even possibly snow is expected to be in the forecast on Friday and Saturday. This shouldn’t help our power numbers either.

They’ve only held 3 games at home before this series. The home opener did not have an official attendance, but game two was reported at just over 570 fans, which is well below the 3,000 person capacity. It shouldn’t be too intimidating.

The Team

Lineup

Leading off, at least most often, is third basemen Kevin Hoef. Hoef is a senior who has a career batting average of .321. Last year was his big break out as a junior, batting .357. This is his fourth year as a starter, but it’s also been his roughest stretch at bat. He is currently batting .237 and he’s been hit a NCAA high 14 times in 17 games. So while the average has been low, his on-base percentage of .410, aided by those hit-by-pitches, has kept him in the lead off spot. Hoef is also a threat on the bases, currently 7 for 8 in stolen base attempts. Hoef has also struggled a little bit on offense this year, already having 6 errors. I’m not sure what’s up with this; his defense has been much better in years past.

Iowa Depth Chart against Coe on Tuesday

Behind Hoef will be shortstop Justin Toole who generally in the 3 spot, but sometimes bats second or even lead off. Toole has been Iowa’s star on defense and offense for the last few seasons, but the senior has never been awarded higher than 3rd team All Big10. Jason Christian at Michigan was a big reason why. Regardless, Toole hit .395 last season, good for 5th in the conference. This season, Toole still has a very good batting average, coming in at .353 with a team high 16 runs. He’s also collected 13 RBIs. On the base paths, Toole will try to keep the defense on its toes. So far he’s 5 for 8 on the season.  Toole is coming off BigTen Player of the Week honors.  Along with scoring 9 and driving in 9 RBIs, he had four multiple hit games.  His OPS for the week was 1.210, yikes.

The clean up spot is senior designated hitter Wes Freie. Freie is another Hawkeye to hit the starting stage last year with break out numbers, hitting .342. This year he is currently batting .333 with 14 runs, 15 RBIs, and 4 homers.

Behind these three, and even in the 2 hole, the order changes often. The top RBI producer for the team is senior first basemen T.J. Catalado with 19 on the season. He also is tied for the lead in team home runs with 4. His batting average is also pretty good at .304. Catalado has batted 6th 12 times and 5th 4 times.

Center field appears to be locked down after a rotating cast. Sophomore Kurtis Muller, listed as 5′0″ and the starter currently. He’s only batting .242 and has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio, surprising for a little guy. He is 3/4 stealing bases.

Junior right fielder Ryan Durant also has started consistently for the Hawkeyes. So far this season, he is batting .339 with 9 runs and 9 RBIs. In left field, the Hawkeyes start a rotating cast. One is a sophomore with a name I absolutely think is fake… Zach McCool. McCool is hitting .293 this year, which isn’t too impressive, but he does have a pair of homers and a triple this season. You might even see him at second base this weekend.

Other people in the rotating cast of left field and second base include freshman infielder Mike McQuillan who is only batting .263 with 8 runs, freshman infielder Chett Zeise who is batting .355 with 7 runs and 2 RBI, or sophomore Travis Willis who is batting .118 with 2 home runs.

Starting Pitching

The Hawkeyes have started seven different players this year on the mound. Their rotation last week featured Nick Brown, Micheal Jacobs, and Wes Freie (yes, the same Freie who is listed as the DH).

Freie has the best numbers out of the three, currently with a 2-1 record and 5.40 ERA in 4 starts. Over his 18 1/3 innings pitched, he’s given up 26 hits, 8 walks, and struck out a team high 20. Ten of those 26 hits have been for extra bases, which hopefully bodes well for Michigan. His most recent start was this Sunday in a win at Western Illinois. Freie went 5 innings only giving up one run on 6 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 2 hit batters.

Micheal Jacobs has the most starts on the team with 5, but they haven’t been all that successful. He’s currently 1-4 on the year with a 7.00 ERA. The lefty has had some tough luck on the mound. This season, his defense has already hung 7 unearned runs while Jacobs is on the mound. He hasn’t helped his own cause either though, allowing an opponent batting average of .384. Jacobs isn’t going to strike out many (well, unless Michigan continues its current strikeout pace); he only has 7 Ks on the year. His last start was a loss at home against Western Illinois. He lasted 3 innings, giving up 5 runs (all earned) on 8 hits and a walk.

Nick Brown earned his way into the weekend starting rotation two weekends ago, just in time to face a ranked Louisville team. In his first start, a loss, he lasted 5 1/3 inning, allowing 10 hits for 6 runs (5 earned) with 4 walks. In his second start, he picked up his first win at home against Western Illinois, lasting 6 1/3, allowing just 5 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), with a walk and four strikeouts. He seems like just the sort of pitcher that has their career day against Michigan lately.

Bullpen

The bullpen actually has a couple decent players in it for Iowa. Josh Hippen (LHP) and Patrick Schatz (RHP) are the two primary relievers. Schatz has the better ERA of the two at 2.25, and also sports a 1-0 record in 16 innings. He has an even 8 walks and 8 strikeouts. He also has had trouble with his defense, who has given up 6 unearned runs while on the mound.

Hippen is the stereotypical starter build at 6′3″, and has the strikeout numbers too. In his 18 innings, he’s struck out 13 batters. He’s only given up 6 total runs (all earned) and walked nine.  Update: Hippen has been promoted to the Saturday starting spot for this weekend according to the weekend release, which will hit the shelves soon).

Outlook

As bad as Iowa is, they can get on base and score runs. Michigan has made it a habit lately to make meh pitchers look pretty good. I still think Michigan takes every game in the series, but they will be much closer than I would want us to be playing. Ultimately, it will just come down to “can Michigan move the runners around and score them?” I’ll take the optimistic yes.

Other Note(s) for the Weekend

BigTenNetwork airs its first baseball game of the season on Friday at 7pm, Michigan State vs Illinois. The BTN will also air their Saturday game at 4pm. Michigan will make its BTN debut next week against Penn State. I was hoping they would stream the baseball games, or at least offer them for replay, but I’m not sure what the plans are at BTN.com.

Weekly Releases from the SID are now going to semiweekly in order to get more information out.  Midweek games will be covered on Tuesdays (unless travel pushes it back) and weekends will be released on Thursday.  This is to make sure information stays fresh.  I think its a net positive change.  I went looking through old releases earlier in the week to start my preview for Iowa, and let me tell you, the stuff the SID office is putting out now is amazing compared to just 2 years ago.

SEBaseball.com released their updated projection of the field of 64; Michigan is unsurprisingly not in it.  The good news for the Big10 is two teams did make it in, so we at least are getting some respect from the big boys down south.  The two teams you ask?  Ohio State gets a #1 seed (!) and hosts (!!!).  They are the lowest 1 seed, but wow, I didn’t expect that.  Minnesota is labeled a #2 seed as the at large bid, but they get placed in the Cal State Fullerton (overall #1 seed) and play Arizona as a #3 seed.  I think we can all atest that Arizona is no cupcake at a #3 seed.  Illinois is probably just outside of the tournament right now, but has a resume to have them in consideration.  The Big10 only sent one team to the tourney last year, but did send 3 in 2007, including Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State.  They’d love to do it again.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.

On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.

Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.

Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.

He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.

OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.

No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.

Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.

Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..

OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.

Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:

1. Figure out how many points losing team scores.
2. Figure out when winning team reaches this score.
3. Determine from game margin and time left whether winning team was running up the score.

Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.

¡Go Blue!

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Individual Players

Not a bad shooting game, but holy hell look at that terrible differential number.

Didn’t get very much run at all. Had 1 legit and 1 crap moving screen go against him in the first half, and I think the foul trouble and the shaken confidence it gave him combined to keep him from playing too much.

His shooting wasn’t particularly bad, especially considering many of those misses in the paint should have been called fouls, but he made some really bad decisions. Way too many “1″s.

grumble grumble running set plays for CJ to shoot 3s grumble grumble. Also, the shifts in which he didn’t play were ALL positive except for one.

Had a pretty good differential, but missed a few shots that he had absolutely no business missing. I’m coming to realize that he should be utilized more as a slasher in addition to a shooter (a role in which he’s recently struggled). And no, I’m not kidding.

Man, if this guy could just shoot as well every game as he did against Minnesota.

Surprisingly, he was one of the few people not in on a negative shift. Of course, that is largely because he barely played at al..

Was a victim of the poor officiating (though not nearly as much as Manny), but other than that, had a lackluster day.

grumble don’t shoot grumble. Played decently enough.

DNP – coach’s decision.

On the Officiating

After people’s reactions in the comments, I thought I might have been a bit harsh in my criticism of the officiating in this game. Upon further Review, I’m even madder than before. Of course, bad calls went both ways, but Michigan by far got the shorter end of the stick. I don’t want to become a boy who cried wolf, so I’m going to refrain from mntioning officiating in the future unless it’s particularly egregious (as it was in this game), but I stand by my previous comments that this game was one of the most poorly reffed I’ve seen all year – and that’s saying something.

Iowa

Half 1

Half 2

OT

Purdue

Half 1

Half 2

Wisconsin

Half 1

Half 2

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

He got an and-1 on one of those fouls in the lane. Manny did what he needs to do for the team, though his hesitation in putting up 3s has really started to annoy me.

Showed some flashes of being able to get to the hoop and draw contact. That will be important down the stretch.

Didn’t shoot the ball much, but he made some defensive plays (along the lines of CJ Lee), and did a good job rebounding, considering he’s 6-5 and playing power forward.

It seemed ike he took (and made) a ton more midrange shots than he actually apparently did. Pretty good day, though he didn’t pull in double-digit boards.

Did what he needs to do. Actually nailed a layup.

Struggled mightily If this is how he plays with almost no post presence on the other team, how will he compete against Goran Suton? BJ Mullens?

WOOO PULS!

Didn’t nail his 3-balls, and his only make was an easy layup on a good cut.

Scrappy, former walk-on, etc. Did a lot more than shoot.

What This Says…

Douglass and Gibson are the only guys who played actual minutes (i.e. not garbage time) who logged negative differentials. I think this surprises nobody. Gibson really struggled today, and Douglass is the lesser of the two freshmen.

This team has so much more success when they don’t take all their shots from three. DeShawn Sims is a major weapon from midrange, and both Manny (obviously) and LLP are able to get to the hoop and draw contact, if not just get their score on. CJ Lee was the team’s MVP, though, despite an unspectacular differential. He made hustle plays left and right, most of which won’t show up in the boxscore.

The story of the day was not the offense (rendering this little exercise at least partially moot), but the stellar defense that the team played. The 1-3-1 forced myriad turnovers, and the team was able to get a few in man as well. They were really playing tenaciously, and I think when they have some success on the offensive side of the court, it inspires them to play better defense (in addition to allowing them to play more 1-3-1).

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were their usual sleves, for better or for worse. This time, Manny was hitting the 3-ball after his hesitation “move,” though he did brick a dunk in the first half (oops). DeShawn was money from inside the arc for most of the day (as usual), and had a few awesome rebounds (including a one-hander as he was getting fouled on the other arm). These guys are clearly the most talented guys on the team, and they showed that they can get it done in the Big Ten.

Zack Novak and CJ Lee are entirely different types of players, but each should be singled out for his effort on this day. CJ was constantly getting in passing lanes and disrupting the Iowa offense, he had a few steals, and even got a little offense of his own. Novak nails big shots left and right, but it’s the little things that really help. He puts in some of the best effort on the team, making deflections and getting rebounds despite playing the power forward position at only 6-5.

Kelvin Grayd made a layup, Eric Puls nailed a long bomb, and even Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd got a bit of playing time. It was a good day. However, it is important to keep in mind that this Iowa team is not expected to finish near the top of the conference standings, and they were without one of their best players (and by far their best rebounder) today. Optimism is good, but a dominating win over a mediocre Iowa team on this day is no reason to let said optimism run wild.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tomorrow morning at 11:30 in Crisler Arena (10:30AM in Iowa City – how’s that for an advantage?). The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

On paper, this looks to be a very tough game for Michigan. Each team shoots a lot of threes, though Iowa makes many more of them. After a horrific outing at Indiana, most of the Wolverines’ offensive stats have gotten slightly worse. Surprisingly given the first half against the Hoosiers, the defensive rankings have actually gotten better. Looking at the gameplans, Michigan’s offensive performance will be reliant on their ability to make shots. Given their struggles against Indiana, this may be no easy feat. However, the Hawkeyes, like the Wolverines, field a very short team – and that was before Cyrus Tate hurt himself playing against Minnesota on Thursday. Perhaps the Manny Harris method of getting to the basket will be a little more effective, and he’ll be able to draw a foul or two (and actually get them called, for once). Iowa’s lack of size (and 3-point-heavy style) is evidenced by the fact that Michigan actually has a fairly sizeable advantage in rebounding the Hawkeyes’ misses. Iowa will make plenty of those shots though, and Michigan will have to take care of the ball (something they’ve certainly shown they can do) in order to get a win. The right column of the ledger above doesn’t tell the whole story: Michigan was close to getting a third “M” in the turnover column, a second in defensive rebounding(!!), while the Hawkeyes just missed getting a second in their advantage shooting the ball. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-60 win in a slow (56 possession) game.

Iowa’s key players are guard Jeff Peterson, who leads the team in assists and getting to the free throw line, freshman forward Matt Gatens, who leads the team in offensive rating and three-point shooting, and forward Cyrus Tate, the team’s lone senior. The 6-8 Tate is by far the team’s best rebounder on both ends of the floor, and he suffered an ankle injury in the first half against the Golden Gophers Thursday. He didn’t return to that game, and even if he does play tomorrow, it’s unclear exactly how effective he’ll be. If he’s limited, Michigan actually has a shot to outrebound their opponent for one of the few times this year – which would go a long way towards helping win.

Lake the Posts, poster-blog for “hey give us respect, guys!” posting, has yet another issue with not getting what the Cats “deserve.” 8-4 Iowa has been selected to the Outback Bowl over the 9-3 Wildcats, who also hold a head-to-head victory on the season. Well, for once there may be a legitimate gripe here. Let’s take a look at the resumes:

Neither resume is particularly impressive, and they’re fairly hard to differentiate at this point (aside form the head-to-head win). Let’s break it down further.

Northwestern gets the non-conference nod, though it’s slightly skewed because they didn’t lose a non-conference game, whereas Iowa lost to the only legit opponent either team played. Northwestern’s crappy non-con schedule gets a bump of one spot at each position. If you were to sort just by quality of opposition, ignoring win/loss record, Iowa’s slate would take Northwestern’s behind the woodshed.

Overall, the resumes are very similar, but Iowa’s seems to be better on the whole, despite the head-to-head loss and the slightly worse record. The common opponents occupy a high slot on Northwestern’s resume, and their wins were eith
er comparable or not as impressive. In loss, Iowa was competitive in every game they played (and let’s not even get into how they should have beaten both Michigan State and Pitt), whereas Northwestern was either getting blown out by good teams, or losing to Indiana, of all teams.