Michigan State Offense

QBs

The Spartans lose 2-year starter Brian Hoyer to graduation, so his backup, redshirt sophomore Kirk Cousins, will compete with fellow redshirt sophomore (and Oklahoma transfer) Keith Nichol. The loser of the QB battle will likely still see some playing time as there was no apparent separation in spring, and the Spartans also brought in Andrew Maxwell in the class of 2009.

Analysis

If I were Adam Rittenberg, I’d be saying things like “Hoyer wasn’t even that good last year, so losing him means nothing.” I am not Adam Rittenberg, and therefore have a functioning brain. This leads me to posit that, if the Spartans had a better option than Hoyer (Nichol excluded, since he wasn’t eligible in his transfer year), that better option would have, like, played. Since Nichol wasn’t head-and-shoulders better than Cousins in spring, maybe the Spartans just don’t have anyone good at QB? I’m not saying they’ll be bad, but a step back from Hoyer is likely in the cards.

RBs

Javon Ringer, one of last year’s Doak Walker finalists, is off to the NFL, with a slew of younger players left to fill the void. Redshirt sophomore Andre Anderson is a little guy, senior AJ Jimmerson is bigger, and redshirt sophomore Ashton Leggett is bigger still for the Spartans. Incoming freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker are also expected to tote the rock some for MSU.

Analysis

Ringer got a ton of work last year, which led to several notable events: 1) He was vastly overrated by the season-ending awards (he was one of 3 players in the top 100 rushers with lower than 4.21 ypc, and the other two were Juice Williams and a player at the offensive trainwreck called Auburn) 2) He wore down over the course of the year 3) Nobody else on the MSU depth chart got any serious work. The next-closest Spartan only got 7% of the carries that Ringer had(!). The coaching staff will likely go slightly towards a platoon-style workload this year, unless someone proves worthy of getting all those carries. There are possible thunder-and-lightning combos in there, but I suspect steadiness might be the preferred trait following Ringer’s exit.

Receivers

The Spartans had a very young receiving corps last year, and they’ll be able to return everyone of note except Keshawn Martin. White Receiver Named White will be one of the starters in his senior year, with redshirt sophomore BJ Cunningham likely to be alongside him. Mark Dell was the breakout performer for State last year as a freshman, and he’ll probably get even more action in ‘09.

Analysis

Michigan State will be very deep at receiver, which should help out one of their young QBs. Dell became a star during last year’s run for MSU, though he was overshadowed by the exceptional year Javon Ringer had rushing the ball. Michigan State may see less spreading of the ball with a younger quarterback, but Cousins and Nichol shouldn’t be short on options for throwing the ball.

Offensive Line

Lineup

Seniors right guard Roland Martin and right tackle Jesse Miller depart, both of whom were multi-year starters. Backup left guard Mike Bacon also departs, after joining the program as a walkon. Senior Rocco Cironi will start at left tackle, redshirt sophomore Joel Foreman will play left guard, senior Joel Nitchman will play center, and the other two positions are very much up for grabs. Senior Brendan Moss will probably fill the hole at tackle, and senior John Stipek will try to hold off junior J’Michael Deane at guard.

Analysis

A very odd thing I noticed about the Spartans’ offensive linemen is that fewer of them have redshirted than you’d expect at a BCS-level school. I’m not sure if that will be a factor of any sort, just an oddity. Losing two offensive linemen off a run-centric team isn’t great, but it isn’t crippling. Of course, considering that the top run threat and QB are gone as well, and it becomes a bit more troubling. Still, neither departed player got a serious sniff in the NFL draft, so the backups should be able to fill in, especially with their seniority.

Offensive Analysis

The Spartans are due for a down year offensively. It’s simply impossible to lose the two most important players, along with 2 of the best 3 offensive linemen, and not see a step back. There are plenty of players there, of course, they just need to prove they can get it done when they’re the focus in gametime. If the QB play is adequate, the Spartans should be able to get the ball to playmakers on the edges.

Michigan State Defense

Defensive Line

The Spartans lose two of their best defensive linemen in DE Brandon Long and DT Justin Kershaw. Redshirt senior Trevor Anderson, who followed Mark Dantonio to East Lansing from Cincinnati, will continue being a huge terror off the edge for opponents, and junior Oren Wilson will play a big role at defensive tackle for the third year in a row. The other two starting positions will likely be filled by Colin Neely, a slightly undersized junior at defensive end, and mondo junior Antonio Jeremiah at tackle.

Analysis

The Spartans lose a couple important pieces up front, but return perhaps the best player in Trevor Anderson. Still, he’ll have to hope that the opposition’s offensive lines have to focus on his new linemates Neely and Jeremiah as much as they did the departed ones, or he’ll be facing plenty of double teams, and won’t be able to get into the opponents’ backfields as much as he’s accustomed to.

Linebackers

Junior Greg Jones is a freakin’ stud, and he’ll return to roam the middle for MSU. Fellow junior Eric Gordon and senior Adam Decker complete the trifecta of returning linebackers for a very strong squad in 2009. Brandon Denson will be a key backup as a senior.

Analysis

The Spartans return all three starters from a group that was pretty good to start with. This should probably be the strongest unit on the team (maybe behind receivers?), though the depth isn’t great. If more young players, including incoming freshman Chris Norman, can get involved, it should be a very good year. Will Jones have a good enough year to go early to the NFL? It’s a possibility.

Defensive Backs

Safety Otis Wiley departs, but the Spartans have a fairly strong secondary coming back. Senior Dan Fortener will return at the other safety position, junior Chris L. Rucker returns at corner, and senior Jeremy Ware returns as the other starting corner. Marcus Hyde will step into Wiley’s role as a starting safety. Ross Weaver will be the first corner off the bench.

Analysis

Wiley was good enough to get some NFL looks, so losing him is definitely going to affect MSU, especially since he was a leader in the secondary. Other than that, MSU returns their most important players, so the secondary should be a strength. Of course, some of the players have been sketchy, so they had better hope for continued improvement in the offseason.

Defensive Analysis

Mark Dantonio is known as a defensively-focused coach, and he’ll have a lot to work with this season. The defensive line will be the biggest weakness, and if the Spartans can’t get to the QB, it will hurt them in the stronger areas of the defense. The linebacking corps should be excellent, so the Spartans will be able to stop teams from both running and passing.

Special Teams

The spartans return both kicking specialists. Brett Swenson will return for placekcking duties, and Aaron Bates will take care of punting.

Analysis

Both specialists for MSU were pretty good last year, so expect more of the same this year, if not a slight improvement. Bates might get a bit more work with the offensive production likely to decrease.

Overall Analysis

The Spartans will be very green (no pun intended) on offense this year, and very experienced on defense. Considering Mark Dantonio’s background, that probably means they’ll try to grind out wins this year. The problem, of course, is that they don’t have a Javon Ringer. If they don’t have someone step up, there could be trouble on offense. Trouble on offense could lead to trouble for defense, as the Wolverines learned last year. I don’t think the Spartan offense will be quite as bad as Michigan’s was last year, though (of course). Considering MSU was mostly outplayed for much of last year, even in some of their wins, and without Ringer to rely on, they’ll take a slight step back, unless the defense just dominates.

Bow before the 2010 Recruiting Board.

ESPN posi-fluff on LA QB Munchie LeGaux. They say his stock is likely to rise, though it’s unclear whether that might result in more offers for the dual-threat passer. He performed well at an Elite 11 camp.

An update on SC RB Marcus Lattimore’s favoring of Auburn:

Running back Marcus Lattimore (6-0, 210) of Byrnes High in Duncan visited Auburn on Friday and Saturday with his mother, stepdad and a friend, and he left there with the Tigers the favorite for his services.

“They’ve got a big lead,” Lattimore said. “Georgia and Florida State would be second. And USC and Clemson are still going to be up there. My mom liked (new Auburn head) Coach Gene Chizik and everything. He has a three-year plan for me and no other college has done that for me.”

Lattimore said he won’t take any more visits until he goes to Penn State this summer. He will attend the Nike camp this weekend at Georgia.

Are they so entrenched that they can’t be beaten? Certainly not. Does it sound like Michigan has a good chance? No.

Despite the lack of news on FL RB Cassius McDowell of late, he reports that the Wolverines still lead for him. It’s unclear whether Michigan is interested in taking another scatback-type in this class, but if they are, the HS teammate of Denard Robinson and Adrian Witty is certainly a good option.

Sounds as though OH RB Roderick Smith is about ready to drop for the Buckeyes. Removal from the board is coming soon for Smith.

FL OL Torrian Wilson isn’t saying Michigan leads for his services anymore, but SoFlaFootball still says the Maize and Blue are in his top group. The Wolverines, Tennessee, and Stanford will be three of his unofficial visits, with the remaining two TBD.

CA DT Kirifi Taula wants to stay in the PAC-10 (info in header). He’s cruisin’ straight towards removal from the board, and it appears as though his days on it are limited indeed. His high school, Anaheim Servite, is a pretty big USC feeder, so don’t be surprised if he eventually ends up there.

The eligibility saga of NC DT Gabe King continues, as the North Carolina High School Athletic Association has declared that he will not be able to play football for Northern Guilford (where he has transferred) in the fall. This will probably cool some schools on him, and a Greensboro correspondent has said that King is probably a guy that Michigan should stay away from, as King is always facing some sort of disciplinary issue.

Removed PA DT Aaron Donald, who has committed to Pitt. He is a high school teammate of CB prospects Cullen Christian and Brandon Ifill. Michigan’s recruitment of Ifill has tailed off a little bit, but the Wolverines are still the favorite for Christian. I assume Donald’s commitment will give Pitt a bit of help for either of those two.

OH LB Jordan Hicks has a top group consisting of Ohio State, Texas, Florida, and USC (info in header). No word on whether that a finalist list, or simply current favorites. We’ll wait and see what the next phase of his recruitment will be, but I certainly don’t think Michigan is in strong position.

Audio interview with FL LB Christian Jones, with some brief mentions of his recruitment (Michigan is not mentioned). His Florida State ties are pretty strong, so be aware that Michigan’s chances to land him are probably not very good.

FL CB Travis Williams recently visited Ann Arbor, and came away with a decision made (info in header). The two premium sites disagree on whether he’ll actually commit to the Wolverines soon, but ESPN showcases its continued incompetence, reporting that Williams has committed (he hasn’t). Even just gleaning the information from article titles, it’s pretty clear that he wants to commit to Michigan, but the Wolverines aren’t quite ready for that, because they like their chances with more highly-rated guys like FL CB Lo Wood and PA CB Cullen Christian, and don’t want to reach for Williams while those other guys are still in play. Should Michigan snag Travis in the end, don’t let that 4.95 40 time on Scout scare you: ESPN reports a combine-verified 4.61.

Track-a-palooza!:
2009 signee Fitzgerald Toussaint ran a 10.86 100m over the weekend.
MI CB Dior Mathis ran a slightly-less-impressive 11.0 100m.

Hilariously whiny and deliciously SpartyNO fluff in the Free Press about how Michigan State could totally recruit Cass Tech if they wanted to.

Ann Arbor, MI — In front of a standing-room only crowd, #3 ranked Michigan (10-2, 4-0) topped interstate foe #14 Michigan State by a score of 12-9. Over 475 fans crowded Oosterbaan Fieldhouse to watch the Wolverines battle the Spartans in tight contest from start to finish. Michigan had not been challenged in a game since returning from the Santa Barbara Shootout winning by an average margin of 11.2 goals in its last five games.

Michigan State made it very clear that this would not be another cakewalk for Michigan, taking a 2-1 lead off two goals from Allison Atchoo. On an eight-meter penalty, Micaela Battiste (Flint, MI/Grand Blanc) leaped into the air, then bounced a shot past the MSU goalie to knot the score at 2-2. Michigan would take the lead for good, using two more goals off eight-meter shots from Amy Johnson (Washington, D.C./Holton-Arms) and Rachel Lary (San Diego, CA/Torrey Pines). The Spartans would cut the lead to one with a goal at the 6:30 mark from Chelsea Beam. Quinn Golinske (Beverly Hills, MI/Groves) scored her second goal of the season, recovering after bobbling the initial pass then beating her defender with a spin move to open up a shot on goal. Johnson then opened the lead up with her second goal of the contest as she converted on an eight-meter, giving Michigan the 6-3 advantage. Michigan would take a 6-4 lead into the intermission, marking the eleventh time this year the Wolverines have gone into halftime with a lead.

Lary opened up the scoring in the second stanza with her season-high tying third goal of the game. Lary ran a give-and-go to perfection with Johnson who earned the assist. Alexis Pavle (Grosse Pointe, MI/Grosse Pointe South) became the third senior to tally a goal on Senior Night, putting Michigan on top 8-4. Fellow senior, Battiste raced up the field weaving through Spartan defenders before finding an open Pavle in front of the net.

The Spartans would not go down quietly with Atchoo taking control of the subsequent draw and beating the entire Michigan defense back leaving just Emmy Scheidt (Birmingham, MI/Seaholm) in her path. Scheidt was unable to come up with the save making the score 8-5. Michigan State would score again three minutes later to draw back to within two goals. Golinske erased any momentum the visiting Spartans were able to build up scoring her second goal of the night on a beautiful one-timer off a Lary assist. Lary found the cutting Golinske on the left post and Golinske swatted the pass right into the net before the MSU goalie could even move her stick. Pavle again pushed the Michigan advantage back up to four goals at 10-6, scoring at the 14:10 mark. After Michigan State narrowed the gap to 10-7, Lary found Britt Boehm (Rocky River, OH/Magnificant) with a cross-goal pass leaving Boehm an open net for her 22nd goal of the season. Pavle would ice the game, completing her hat-trick – all of which came in the second half – at the 7:21 mark. Michigan State would score two goals in the closing minutes to bring the final tally to 12-9.

Michigan will next be in action in Fort Collins, Colorado playing in the Colorado State Tournament this weekend. The Wolverines’ schedule for this tournament includes games against Wyoming, #10 BYU, Denver, #7 Colorado State, and #18 Minnesota.

Game Notes: This was the final home game for Michigan’s seven seniors: Alexis Pavle, Natalie Relich, Micaela Battiste, Julie Baskind, Rebecca Miller, Rachel Lary, and Christinne Lee…Michigan finished the season undefeated at home (7-0)…Game attendance of 475 set a new program record as spectators had to stand or sit on the ground once bleacher space was exhausted…Johnson’s two goals give her the team lead with 25 on the season…Lary and Pavle extended their team-high six game goal streak…Johnson now has ten multi-goal games on the season and has scored in ten of the twelve games this season.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Was only on one positive shift (and even that was just +1).

Has a bad differential, but he also played nearly the entire game in a 12-point loss.

Has really found a place on this team as a point guard. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have any offensive game, but he’s great on the other end of the court.

Continued to struggle.

Played admirably against a bigger and more athletic Spartans front line. Alas, he didn’t get any open looks.

Was only on the court during the stretch of death in the first half. He’s an absolute liability on both ends of the court.

Very good job by DeShawn. Probably a product of the defense, but he didn’t have a single midrange attempt.

Led the collapse on offense in the middle of the first half.

Not bad, but not good enough on defense to prove he deserves more playing time.

It appears as though Beilein has sold out for defensive production (Lee, Merritt) at the expense of offensive production. It’s been successful in keeping games close, but it really allows opponents to go on runs when nobody on the court for Michigan can score. The officiating in this game was complete crap, but I think the Wolverines got the better end of the deal.

Michigan takes on the Spartans at 7PM tonight on ESPN. The game takes place in a sold-out Crisler Arena.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

As has been the case for much of the past decade, Michigan State is simply a better team than Michigan. They have many of the characteristics of classic Tom Izzo-coached teams: they rebound well, they get to the line decently well, and they do everything else just well enough to win the vast majority of their games. Since Michigan’s slide began against Wisconsin, the Wolverines have fallen off in nearly every category. However, they look to have turned it around (at least a bit) over the past two games. The keys for each team will be hitting their shots and not turning the ball over. Michigan has disadvantages in the first category and advantages in the second on each end of the floor. KenPom predicts a 71-67 Spartans win in a 65-possession game.

The Spartans are led by sophomore Kalin Lucas, who has been very efficient in both dishing it to his teammates and not turning the ball over. Another important piece for the Spartans, however, is Raymar Morgan. The junior power forward has missed the last two games, andisn’t expected to play tonight. If he’s missing, that could help decrease Michigan State’s size/rebounding advantage, if only slightly. Chris Alen is the team’s designated sniper, but he’s been struggling from 3 a bit of late. Will he be able to turn it back on against the hated rival?

For as much better a record as Michigan State owns, I’m surprised the Spartans’ tempo-free profile is this close to Michigan’s. MSU is one of the few teams that hasn’t had AT LEAST 3-letter differentials in rebounding on both ends of the floor, and they are certainly one of the closest teams to Michigan in terms of getting to the line. However, I still think the Spartans are too good for Michigan, and the lone game in this rivalry goes MSU’s way in 2009.

Mr. Hollis,

As I’m sure you are well aware by now, two of your university’s hockey players, Corey Tropp and Andrew Conboy, were involved in a disgraceful incident Friday night in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Both of them participated in actions that were immoral; the actions by Mr. Tropp can be described by no less severe terms than absolutely inhuman. I can only imagine your embarrassment, the embarrassment felt by the parents of these two student-athletes must be unbearable.

Following the game, Men’s Ice Hockey Head Coach Rick Comley stated that he would discipline each player following their actions. While the effort of Mr. Comley is certainly a start, there is no possible way that it is enough. The Central Collegiate Hockey Association will undoubtedly suspend Mr. Conboy, and Coach Comley may choose to discipline him further. This is acceptable punishment. Mr. Tropp, on the other hand, should likely be tried in a court of law for assault with a deadly weapon. If you are a man of integrity, Mr. Hollis (and none of your previous actions would imply otherwise), Mr. Tropp should be kindly informed that his services with a hockey stick (be they scoring goals or attempting to murder an opposing player as he lay prone on the ground) are no longer welcome in East Lansing, and if he would like to continue as a student at Michigan State University, he may do so without the benefit of a grant-in-aid from the athletic department.

Do you really want to send the message to prospective athletes that Michigan State is a school that not only condones, but champions thuggery and criminal acts? No school, much less an esteemed academic institution like Michigan State, should ever accept behavior like this from any of its students, and student-athletes are more accountable than any others. For the athletic department to not only allow such acts, much less pay a student to commit them, is unconscionable. I know this is a difficult decision for you to make, Mr. Hollis, but there is a right choice and a wrong one. Please, for the sake of a student at a neighboring university who had to be taken to the hospital in a neck brace on a backboard, make the right one.

Sincerely,

Timothy Sullivan
sullivti@umich.edu

The link to Hollis’s e-mail address is there for a reason. Let him know how you feel.

Sagarin Ratings in remaining games

• #129 Indiana visits #22 Wake Forest, and they’ll be 16.39 point underdogs in Raleigh-Durham.
• #83 Penn State takes on #58 Georgia Tech on the road, in a game in which the Jackets will be favored by 5.13 points.
• #23 Michigan State hosts #1 North Carolina at Ford Field. They will be 10.21-point dogs in the neutral-site game. However, The ‘Heels may be without their star, Tyler Hansbrough (who, of course, they’ve been without for much of this year).
• #46 Florida State goes to Chicago to face #59 Northwestern, and the Big Ten actually has a favorite in this one! The Cats are 7.06-point favorites.

…And that brings us to the game that Michigan fans care most about: the Wolverines head to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins at 7:30 tonight on ESPNU.

Maryland sports a #34 Sagarin Rating, and Michigan is #40. On a neutral floor, Beilein’s bunch would be a 2.36-point underdog. In a home game, the Terps are favored by 6.36. They enter this contest on a two-game slide against Gonzaga and Georgetown. Maryland’s best player is the outstandingly-monikered Grievis Vasquez, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. His effective field goal percentage is 45.88%, which is supbar. Georgetown managed to shut Vasquez down, holding him to 1-7 shooting (0-4 3pt).

Michigan State

• Maryland faced Michigan State (on a neutral floor) in the Old Spice Classic, and beat the Spartans handily, by a score of 80-62.
• Michigan State, the only team Maryland has played with a Sagarin rating anywhere remotely close to Michigan’s, Vasquez still only shot 42.86 eFG%, meaning that he is certainly containable (of course, his 17 points were aided by the Spartans sending him to the free throw line 6 times).
• Michigan State lost the game against Maryland by giving up too many good looks from the outside. The Terrapins shot 9-19 from behind the arc in the Old Spice Classic. For the year, Michigan’s opponents are shooting 27.45% from three, including bad performance by UCLA and Duke, and an inexplicable 7-9 from Savannah State. For its part, Maryland’s performance against State was a pretty significant outlier in the young season.
• The Terrapins also managed to shut down Raymar Morgan, who to this point in 2008 has been MSU’s go-to player. Michigan doesn’t rely on a post presence like Morgan, instead shooting the ball from outside a lot, and getting slashes to the basket from Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims (who also posts up a bit).
• Although Maryland shut down MSU’s post presence, they don’t have a lot of size, and it will be interesting to see whether DeShawn Sims can have a bit more success down low (along with Zack Gibson) – or at least use the postup to open up shooters outside.

The Wolverines face a tough test, especially since Maryland shut down a team expected to be far better than them in the Spartans. However, the Terrapins haven’t been without their troubles, and Michigan is a different type of team than Michigan State, regardless of difference in talent level.

Go Blue, beat the Terrapins!

The Situation
It’s Michigan State’s first drive of the game. The drive started on their own 17, and despite a big sack, they were able to convert on a long third down attempt, completing a pass to Mark Dell. After a pair of Javon Ringer runs, they face 3rd and 5 from their own 39 yard line. A stop here, and Michigan sets the tone against Little Brother. If the Spartans convert, however, they might be able to ride the momentum to their first victory against the Wolverines since 2001.

The Personnel and Formation

Michigan State comes out in a 4-wide shotgun. White Blair is in the left slot next to Mark Dell, and a tight end (Charlie Gantt) is lined up in the right slot. Javon Ringer is to Hoyer’s right. Michigan counters this formation with a 4-3. Jonas Mouton is head-up with White, and Johnny Thompson is over the tight end. Stevie Brown and Brandon Harrison are the safeties.

The Play

Michigan appears to be running a cover-2 man scheme on this play. Jonas Mouton is the important party, as he is White’s man. At the snap, Dell doesn’t even go out on a route, and instead occupies Trent with a block of sorts. On the right, the other wideout gets an outside release and runs his defender (Warren) off. The slots are making all the magic on this play. Gantt runs a hook towards the middle of the field, and White runs a slant. This is clearly a one-read play for Hoyer, as he never looks anywhere other than directly at White. White makes the catch, breaks a tackle from Stevie Brown, and races to the endzone.

Why it Worked

Jonas Mouton gets completely burned by his man on this play. He gives up the middle of the field, and is left chasing after White. Compounding the issue, Stevie Brown pretty much whiffs on his tackle, allowing White to get behind the last line of defense. Mouton is culpable for the reception, and Brown is at fault for allowing a first down to turn into a touchdown.

• The stadium atmosphere, though it was better than some games, left a whole lot to be desired. Most disturbingly, a rival’s fans got a stadium-wide cheer going in the waning moments of a victory in our stadium.
• The offense still can’t put together four full quarters, but with the defense Michigan has, there really isn’t much of an excuse to lose a game in which we score 21 points.
• The recruiting weekend didn’t go exactly as planned, but it sounds as though most of the recruits in attendance really liked Michigan – with the notable exception of DeWayne Peace. Is a decommitment looming?
• Maybe I’ve just never considered them because I’m friends with a bunch of MSU fans, and those that I typically run across are cordial enough, but MSU fans are really a special brand of pathetic.

And looking forward to Purdue:

• The Boilermakers are probably the coldest team in the conference at this point, with Wisconsin and Indiana finally cracking through this past weekend. The next closest “competitor?” Probably Michigan. Sadly, this weekend’s game is likely a battle to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference, along with Indiana.
• QB Curtis Painter is expected to miss the game this weekend. Top backup Joey Elliott is out for the remainder of the season. That means OLSM product Justin Siller will likely start for the Boilers.
• If you ask me, Purdue is the closest thing offensively Michigan will play to Toledo (except maybe Minnesota). This might bode ill for the Michigan defense, since it’s a personnel upgrade at nearly every position (except maybe replacing a 5th-year senior QB for a redshirt freshman).
• I don’t forsee having a podcast this week.
• Michigan really needs this game. If they can get a bit of momentum going, they could probably pull off a game or two against Minnesota and Northwestern, as well.

Rationally I knew it was likely that Michigan would lose. This isn’t a good team. The offensive line is inexperienced and constituted mainly of middling recruits. The wide receivers included James Rogers and Zion Babb. A ton of the big contributors are injured or nicked up.

There’s a brand new offense that’s different, scary and wildly inconsistent. The defense is having growing pains learning a new scheme. Sometimes they look amazing, and other times they look confused.

There’s no reason to expect big things. Hume disproved the principle of the uniformity of nature. Just because Michigan has been consistently good does not guarantee that Michigan will be good in the future.

I know Rich Rodriguez will mold this team into a something amazing. He is a winner everywhere he goes. Michigan has a great base and program to support the team. All evidence points to greener fields ahead. The 2009 class (as of now) looks to be elite. The 2010 class will likely be better. Something good is around the corner.

Sparty tried to give Michigan the game. They did not play well. They left a ton of points on the field. Michigan got a very dubious call in their favor (how the Hell was Minor in bounds?). Michigan is just not good enough to capitalize. Rationally I know this season shouldn’t be evaluated in wins and losses. Michigan fans need to take their medecine and look forward to the future.

But irrationally, this sucks.

Talking with State News writer Cash Kruth, my opinion of the Spartans still remains pretty much the same: they are a mediocre team, not a good one. Their strength of schedule speaks to this, and against real competition, they have struggled for the most part. Of course, a mediocre team should be able to beat a bad one, namely the Michigan Wolverines.

Offense
The Spartan offense is centered around one player: Javon Ringer. Ringer leads the nation in rushing yardage, with 1179 yards so far this year (Donald Brown of Connecticut has 1174 yards in one fewer game), and he runs for about 150 yards per Spartan contest. The offense is heavily reliant on Ringer, and in his two worst contests, the Spartans have lost for the only two times this season. It is important to note of Ringer, however, that he has 60 more carries than the next-closest player in Division 1-A. He has the lowest yards-per-carry average (4.48) of any player in the top 40 in rushing yardage, and most have him beat by a significant margin.

So why do the Spartans run Ringer so often, if they’re not reaping great benefits every time? Looking at Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, the wideouts, you’d think that MSU would pass it more. However, when you approach the situation under center, you realize that Brian Hoyer is often as much a liability for Michigan State as he is an asset. Despite having fairly good weapons, including Javon Ringer to take off some of the pressure, Brian Hoyer is 72nd in the country in passing efficiency. This is all despite rarely getting sacked.

So Michigan has a gameplan for beating Michigan State: stop Javon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to beat you. He hasn’t been able to single-handedly take down a team yet (his best opportunity, at Cal, saw him complete less than 42% of his passes) and is unlikely to suddenly start doing so. Michigan has already beaten a team of this mold, and Wisconsin had a significantly better offensive line, a wider variety of options at running back, and a more robust over-the-middle passing game, which thus far has been Michigan’s biggest problem in coverage.

One other thing to note about the Spartan offense is the turnover rate. As much as Michigan has coughed the ball up this year, Michigan State has had troubles of their own, especially when Hoyer is forced to throw the ball (6-4 TD-int ratio). They had 3 fumbles lost against Ohio State, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.

Defense
MSU’s defense has been at best okay, though strength of schedule again comes into play. Indiana scored their most points of the season against D-1A competition against MSU (29), Cal their third most (38, though the other two higher scores were against Washington State and Colorado State), but they gave up season-lows in point total to Notre Dame (7) and Florida Atlantic (0). The Atlantic game may have been something of an outlier, as their pass-happy attack was unlikely to find success in a monsoon regardless of who they were playing, but results speak for themselves.

The strength of Michigan’s offense is the pass game, like the strength of MSU’s defense is pass effeiciency. However, despite Michigan’s obvious offensive struggles this year, the Wolverine pass game may be one of the best the Spartans have faced so far. If nothing else, there is the biggest array of receiving talent this side of OSU, and if Steven Threet is healthy, the passer shouldn’t be too shabby. Of course, this all goes to hell if Nick Sheridan has to play any significant time. MSU’s secondary is strongest at the safeties (if you consider any position where Kendell Davis Clark is a starter a “strength” – though I admit I haven’t extensively seen him play at safety), so Michigan should have some ability to attack the perimeter on the sideline passes and wheel routes that have thus far been their most successful plays already.

In the run game, Michigan State has no been so successful on the defensive side of the ball. Cal and Ohio State went for over 200 on them, even Eastern Michigan went for 127, Shonn Greene of Iowa tore them up for 157, and only Notre Dame had a really bad day against them, which was partially due to the Spartans getting an early lead, followed immediately by Jimmy Clausen taking 4 bad sacks. The Irish put up only 16 yards rushing, though that came on merely 22 attempts (including sacks). Michigan might be the most anemic rushing attack that MSU has faced so far this season, but the Spartans have shown that, given the chance, a run game can succeed against them.

Michigan’s gameplan will likely be to get the ball to the outside, and get playmakers in space. However, when the run game came to life a bit in the first quarter against Penn State, we saw that Brandon Minor, for all his fumbling troubles, may give Michigan an oportunity to actually move the ball without throwing. A healthy mix of plays, and passing to set up the run a bit, may speak to Michigan’s advantage. As I said earlier this week, Michigan’s offense this year might not be as good as West Virginia’s ever was under Rich Rodriguez, but the man certainly knows how to gash a Dantonio defense either way. He might be able to scheme to keep that trend going.

Predictions
The Michigan offense will reach a new season high in terms of total yardage.
Martavious Odoms will get his first touchdown as a Wolverine.
The Michigan defense or special teams will score on their own, or at least get the ball on Michigan State’s side of the 50 for the offense.
There will be at least 2 “Sparty, No” moments.
Michigan wins, 28-20.

The University has been fairly consistent about being against night games. With Rich Rod as coach might that change?

The University has indeed had a pretty consistent aversion to playing games under the lights. Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines never played a home game with a start later than 4:30, whereas Rich Rodriguez’s Mountaineers played night games regularly. This may give the impression that it was Carr preventing the team from taking the field at 7 or 8 PM. However, I think it was the athletic administration, rather than the football staff, that was preventing this.

AD Bill Martin has stated several reasons for wanting to not play a night game, and the retirement of Lloyd Carr didn’t really change any of them. Some of the reasons include:

• Alumni pressure. A lot of the older alums really want to be able to get in bed by 8, rather than sitting down in the Big House. Luxury boxes and indoor club seating might make night games a little more appealing to elderly fans.
• Curbing all-day drinking. If people wake up at 7 to tailgate for a noon football game, they get very drunk. If they wake up at 7 to tailgate for a football game that is more than 12 hours away, they get very very drunk. This is a public safety issue, and the administration doesn’t really want to get involved with that.
• Wanting to allow Michigan fans to drive home while it is still light out. Afternoon starts don’t really avoid this, and a lot of people live far enough away that they may end up driving in the dark anyway (especially with post-game traffic).
• No permanent lighting in Michigan Stadium. The portable lighting that has to be brought in for later games (which is paid for by the networks, not the school, in case you were interested) is both a hassle and a poor solution that doesn’t adequately light to playing field. With the stadium renovations, there will be footings for lights, but according to Dave Ablauf, still no permanent fixtures. However, the footings will allow for better lighting in the future.

In the first year, there is almost no chance of a night game, especially with the stadium renovations ongoing. However, with an enthusiastic young coach, and ever-increasing money to be made from TV, night games are something that it may be possible to see down the road.

The next question comes from an anonymous commenter who asks:

tim, i apppreciate the work you put into this blog. it is very well done. do you think that msu will keep both of their backs. i have to believe that one of them will bail.

Well, a lot of the players that are currently committed to the Spartans are not that highly regarded. I doubt State would lose Maxwell, Spencer, or Treadwell to a less prestigious program. That leaves the following three prospects:

Edwin Baker RB 5*, 5-11, 200, 4.40
Baker’s recruitment had been pretty quiet until he committed to State. Michigan has offered him, though the offer didn’t come until he was already a Spartan. It does not seem like he is probably going to stick with State, though I would be VERY surprised if he is the #2 running back in the country come February (I’ll even be mildly surprised if he ends up with all 5 of those stars).

Chris Norman LB 4* 6-2, 200, 4.60
Norman had seemed pretty open, and perhaps even leaning towards Michigan. Then State offered, and he committed abruptly. If you had asked this question a while back, I would have said he was a strong candidate for decommitment. However, with each day that passes by, it seems less and less likely that the Spartans lose his pledge.

Larry Caper RB 4* 5-11, 210, 4.41
Caper seems like the most likely of Michigan State’s verbals to leave the recruiting class. He committed to the Spartans before Baker (a more highly-ranked player) did, and though he says all the right things about not being scared off, the dread spectre of sitting on the bench has to be at least somewhat disheartening. However, State did do a god job splitting time between many guys last year (Jevon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick each had more than 220 carries), though they probably should have run it more, i.e. when it could have won them the Champs Sports Bowl. Caper’s favorites prior to his commitment had been Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, and with Charlie Weis’s cupboard currently bare, he might pursue Caper pretty heavily.

As always, thanks for the questions guys. Keep sending them in and I’ll keep answering to the best of my ability.

Etc.: Texas quarterback GJ Kinne has announced that he will transfer. No word yet on whether this will affect the decision of Sherrod Harris, another ‘Horns backup who was considering a transfer (with Michigan as a potential destination).