Minnesota Offense

QBs

Adam Weber has started the past two years, and he’ll be back once more. Coming in to back him up will be freshman (redshirt freshman? I’m not sure how it works when he was ineligible last year) MarQueis Gray, an Army All-American two years ago.

Analysis

Weber has become one of the conferences top quarterbacks (whether people want to admit it or not), and Gray should come in and provide much more talented depth. It’ll be interesting to see how Gray’s skills are used in the new non-spread Gophers offense.

RBs

DeLeon Eskridge ended up leading the Gophers in 2008, but the starter this season will probably be redshirt sophomore Duane Bennett, who redshirted last year after suffering a season-ending injury in the second game. Basically everyone is back for the Gophers, and as a bonus, they were all very young last year and should continue to develop. Fullback Jon Hoese looks to get more playing time this year with the new Minnesota offense.

Analysis

As mentioned above, the Minnesota offense looks to move towards more of a power running game, so it’ll be interesting to see how that affects usage of the running backs. Hoese benefited in the bowl game, so there’ll probably be more of him this season (though the element of surprise that likely helped him in the bowl game will be gone).

Receivers

Eric Decker returns for his senior season after skipping spring practice to play on the Gophers’ baseball team. Fellow whiteboy senior Ben Kuznia was Minnesota’s second-leading wideout last year. Sophomore Brandon Green will also get some reps, though Minnesota looks to get fewer multi-wideout sets on the field this year. At tight end, Nick Tow-Arnett will step up for the departed Jack Simmons.

Analysis

It appears as though Minnesota’s move away from the spread coincides with a loss of depth at wide receiver. The players at the top are pretty good (though Decker got nearly three times as much usage as the next player), but the ball will probably have to be shared a bit more this year, unless the Gophers want Decker to get killed in ‘09.

Offensive Line

The personnel along the Minnesota offensive line is something of a mystery, as there is a lot of moving around expected, especially with a new line coach in town. Center Ryan Wynn started every game at center last year, and he’ll return as a redshirt sophomore. Redshirt senior Matt Stommes, a former defensive lineman, has impressed, and is expected to be one of the starting tackles. Notre Dame transfer Matt Carufel should play one of the guard positions, leaving the other guard position and a tackle position left. Dominic Alford has played primarily tackle in his career, but some are calling for him to be one of the starting guards, with JuCo transfer Jeff Wills starting at tackle.

Analysis

Minnesota’s line will be a mystery, what with a new offensive philosophy to go along with a fair amount of shaking up. Still, Minnesota returns more starts along the offensive line than any Big Ten school, and with a new focus on pounding the ball, they should be able to block the hell out of a lot of defenses they’ll play. However, returning starts != returning quality. The Gophers were last in the conference in rushing, and second-to-last in sacks allowed last year. Part of that is a product of the offense they ran, so look for improvement in both categories, regardless of whether the offensive line’s play actually improves.

Offensive Analysis

The Gophers are moving to a more ground-oriented attack, which coincides pretty well with the shift in their roster composition – lots of returning depth on the offensive line, not much in the receiving corps. Adam Weber will probably go from an offensive catalyst to more of a game-manager, and the Gophers should be more consistent, if not necessarily better, offensively. Weber still has the ability (along with his main man Eric Decker) to win a game for his team, and a balanced Gophers attack could be pretty strong if it all comes together.

Minnesota Defense

Defensive Line

Seniors Garrett Brown and Eric Small return at the defensive tackle positions (there’s always a little humor in a 300-pounder being named “Small”), and look to bolster the rush defense for Minnesota. Fellow seniors Derrick Onwuacki and Cedric McKinley will likely be the defensive ends, after the Gophers lose star pass-rusher Willie VanDeSteeg. Sophomore Brandon Kirksey is listed on the Minnesota roster at DE, but with a 6-2, 281-lb frame, I espect him to play more defensive tackle, along with his enormous classmate Jewhan Edwards.

Analysis

The defensive tackle quality and depth is pretty good, but there’s seemingly nobody to play defensive end outside the starters. In fact, backup DE Anthony Jacobs is also listed at 280+, so behind the starters for Minnesota, don’t expect much of a pass rush on defense. The rush D should be pretty good with a lot of size, to go along with a very large and very experienced rotation at defensive tackle.

Linebackers

Deon Hightower, Steve Davis, and Kevin Mannion leave to Gophers’ linebacking corps after getting significant reps last year. However, there are a few guys ready to step into their roles. For one thing, senior Lee Campbeel will reprise a starting role from last year, when he moved from DE to MLB. Joining him will be Simoni Lawrence, who was actually the third-leading tackler among linebackers despite not being a regular starter. Nathan Triplett will try to hold off redshirt freshman Keanon Cooper for the final starting position.

Like defensive end, this appears to be a very senior-heavy position group (Minnesota fans must be shuddering when they think about how their team will perform in 2010). Steve Davis was one of the stronger players on the Gopher defense, so losing him will be a blow, but there are a number of experienced players (to go along with one inexperienced but talented player in Cooper) to step in, and the linebacker group should be a strong one.

Defensive Backs

The Gophers would be returning their entire starting backfield from last year, save for the flunking-out of safety Tramaine Brock. Seniors Marcus Sherels and Traye Simmons started every game at corner last year, and look to do the same this year, while junior Kyle Theret returns at one of the safety positions. The other safety spot is up in the air (and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to presume that there’s a possibility of Brock coming back to Minnesota), with redshirt junior Kim Royston, a Wisconsin transfer, and true sophomore Mike Rallis looking to be the front-runners.

Analysis

Yet again, the Gophers have a lot of experience (and a fair number of seniors) at a position group. Though it bodes ill for 2010, it’s pretty good in 2009. The loss of Brock is a setback, but there are a number of Gopher players who have some game experience, and with returning starters (and upperclassmen) surrounding them, it shouldn’t be a huge liability to start a relatively fresh player.

Defensive Analysis

Minnesota’s defense looks to be a strong one in terms of returning talent. The pass rush is the main area that could be a problem (with a new safety – who went through last year expecting to have Brock back in ‘09 – might that mean pass defense issues?), and everything else is loaded with upperclassmen. The defense wasn’t particularly good overall last year, though, with a better scoring defense than yardage defense, aided by a bunch of turnovers. Since turnovers aren’t really replicable, except by pressuring the quarterback, an improved defense may not look like it at times in 2009.

Special Teams

Joel Monroe and Justin Kucek, last year’s specialists, are both gone. The Gophers will replace them with true freshman Dan Orseske at punter, junior Eric Ellestad at kicker.

Analysis

Both specialists are unknown quantities, as neither has played a single down in college. As inexperienced players, they aren’t likely to out-perform last year’s starters, especially since Ellestad was on the bench behind Monroe.

Overall Analysis

Minnesota is a pretty experienced team this year, and it might be a good thing that they rotate off Michigan’s schedule (though they didn’t give a historically bad Wolverine outfit much of a game in the Metrodome last year). The offense is something of an unknown quantity with new schemes, and uncertainty in the positions along the offensive line. Defensively, the Gophers should be better than last year, but they can’t rely on the turnover to give them a boost like they did through much of 2008. The Gophers’ roster seems to be composed completely of seniors and sophomores (with the occasional junior thrown in), so they’ll be strong in 2009, bad in 2010, and probably strong when they rotate back onto Michigan’s schedule for the 2011 season.

The final score was 10-4 and I’ll recap it in full tomorrow.  The 6th place standings as of this moment are:

Purdue plays again tomorrow against Michigan State. I’m not sure what’s up with the Saturday through Monday series, but its there at least.  We really need Michigan State to win tomorrow.  We REALLY need Illinois to win their series @Purdue next weekend.  AND we really, really need to take care of Northwestern next weekend in Evanston.  I’m not too concerned about Penn State.  They have to sweep Minnesota and sacrifice a goat to some sort of pagan Nittany god that Purdue loses at least 3 games and Michigan only takes 2 in the series against Northwestern.  That would put them tied with us for 6th, but they hold the tie breaker.  I don’t think that’s likely, but it is still a potential situation.

Our “magic tournament number” is currently 5.  That’s any combination of Michigan wins or Purdue losses.

And because this is one of those few situations where this is applicable:  Go Sparty! Beat Purdue!

• The Ann Arbor News – If this, if that, maybe we could have won.
• The Daily: The Game – Mini-liveblog, now with more paragraphs.  I like it.
• MGoBlue – Standard SID release

Game 2 in the series is today, in about 40 minutes (1:05pm).  Get to the Fish.  We need all the support we can get against Buske.

vs. Minnesota
Ray Fisher Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI

Game 1 – 6:35pm Friday
Starters:  Handran (RHP, 6-2, 3.45 ERA)  vs.  Chris Fetter (6-2, 2.44 ERA)
Media Game 1: Live Stats and Audio

Game 2 -1:05pm Saturday
Starters: Buske (RHP, 7-3, 2.56 ERA) vs. TBA
Media Game 2: Live Stats and Audio

Game 3 – 1:05pm Sunday
Starters: Rosin (RHP, 5-1, 3.95 ERA) vs.  Katzman(7-4, 2.94 ERA)
Media Game 1: Live Stats and Audio

Series: Michigan trails 82-81
Last Meeting: Michigan swept 3 in 2008
Last Michigan Loss: April 6, 2008 (7 game winning streak)
Last Michigan Series Loss – 2005 (sweep @Minnesota)

Overview

Minnesota enters this series in second place in the BigTen, just one half game behind Illinois.  The Gophers are 13-4 in conference play, 31-13 overall.  They currently lead the conference in ERA at 4.38, good for #41 in the nation.  Their hitting isn’t too bad either.  Minnesota is 4th in the BigTen at .318 batting average, good for #65 in the nation.  They have a good balance between pitching and hitting, it should be a tough series for Michigan.

Offense

Minnesota is lead by junior second baseman Derek McCallum.  McCallum is currently batting .399 on the season (top of all regular BigTen starters), so obviously he can hit.  As if his average wasn’t enough, his power is just as notable.  On the year, he has 14 homeruns, 10 doubles, and 3 triples for a .734 slugging percentage, highest in the BigTen by at least .060 points.  Thats huge.  He also leads the conference in RBIs with 61.

The Gophers also have 5 other batters with averages over .330, including Michael Kvasnicka, the other power threat.  Kvasnicka owns a .359 batting average with 15 doubles and 7 home runs. He has 47 RBIs on the year, second on the team.

Matt Nohlety (.344 batting average) will be the big stolen base threat for Minnesota; he currently has 19 steals in 24 attempts.  The Gophers as a team do attempt plenty of steals.  They are about on par with Michigan in attempts, but have a slightly better percentage with 64 steals in 87 attempts (Michigan is 56 for 90).

AJ Peterson (.366 BA), Justin Gominsky (.360), and Kyle Hudson (.330) round out the hitters over .330.  None of these look to be overly powerful, but they get on base plenty.  The only other major source of power comes from Nick O’Shea who is hitting .274 on the year with 11 doubles and 8 home runs.

One statistic that may or may not make a difference this year comes from Kyle Gleason.  Despite his .232 batting average, he has worked 33 walks this season.  That actually puts his on base percentage at .471.  That stat just stood out strangely.  Let’s throw him strikes.

Pitching

Starting Friday is Chancy Handran.  His 3.45 ERA is pretty good, but he does give up plenty of base runners.  In 70 innings pitched, he’s given up 70 hits and 26 walks.  He has only struck out 42 in that time, too.  That bodes well.

Saturday’s starter Tom Buske is an outlier when it comes to BigTen Pitcher of the Year.  His 2.45 ERA is second only to Chris Fetter, but I don’t hear anything about him when it comes to POTY talk.  Weird.  He hasn’t been overwhelming with strikeouts with only 58 on the year, but in his 70 innings, he’s only given up 52 hits and 18 walks.  That’s pretty good compared to the rest of the league.

Sunday sees Seth Rosin to the mound.  His ERA is 3.95, also very good for a BigTen starter.  He doesn’t usually last very long into games, with just under 5 innings per start (54.2 innings in 11 starts).  He has 46 Ks in those starts and only walked 11.

The closer for the Gophers is Scott Matyas.  He currently has 10 saves in 17 appearances spanning 18.2 innings.  He has struck out 28 this season and given up only 7 runs.

Weather

Looks like we should get all three games in this weekend.  Saturday may have a little bit of a delay to it.  Those winds should be helacious, blowing in strong from right center.

Promotions and Announcements

Friday (full promotional schedule):

The first 1,000 fans will receive a maize or blue glow stick necklace to help us light up the Wilpon Baseball Complex.

Join us beginning at 5:30 p.m. to participate in our inflatable games, face painting, and much more!

Saturday:

All Great Sauk Trail Boy Scouts and their families are invited to attend this game for only $3! Click HERE for downloadable flyer!

Beginning at Noon enjoy an ice cream sundae courtesy of Michigan Baseball!

The first 500 fans will receive the fourth-set of Michigan baseball trading cards

Sunday:

To celebrate Mother’s and Grandmother’s Michigan baseball will host a brunch for families to attend for only $15 for adults and $10 for youth 13 and under. This includes the brunch, a plant for the honored guest(s) and a reserved chairback seat to the game. To RSVP, contact Katy Jackson at katjacks@umich.edu or 734-647-1261. For more information, download the event flyer (PDF).

Also, there is some street closures happening this weekend.  Northbound State Street will be closed.  MGoBlue:

The recommended route for fans traveling from points south who normally use State Street is to take Ann Arbor-Saline Road / Main Street to Hoover and use the parking lot entrance by the band building and Canham Natatorium.

Travel to the game and travel safe.

Outlook

Michigan needs wins.  This weekend is a tough series.  Michigan has a great chance of taking tonight’s game, and a decent shot at taking the series.  I felt lucky last week and saw us no hit in the first game.  I’m feeling lucky again, but this time I think we take game 1 and game 3 specifically.  Game two will be rough against Buske, but get out there and support the team.  We need the wins.

Brandon Sinnery got the start in the game and he made the most of it. He lasted 6 innings giving up only 4 hits while striking out 2 (yes, that’s 0 walks). I’ll take that start any midweek.

Sinnery was also aided by some early run support. Michigan scored 5 runs in the first inning. Nick Urban had a RBI single, followed by a 2 RBI single by Chris Berset and a 2 RBI double by Alan Oaks. That kind of support offensively makes pitching much easier. I will note that Urban left the game in this inning. It was right after stealing second base. I missed the broadcast call, but I would imagine its either a leg or hand injury. If anyone has any news, drop a comment.

Matt Miller, Kolby Wood, and Tyler Burgoon combined to finish the game.  Burgoon sounded to be pitching well.  He struck out the first hitters of the 9th on 6 pitches.

After the 1st inning, the offense went into hibernation.  We did get picked off twice, but one sounded to be a clear balk.  The pitcher from WMU stepped toward the plate then submarined the throw to first.  The step toward the plate is a balk.  It didn’t get called and Berset was left confused and out to dry.  Coach Maloney gave the umpire a piece of his mind, but it didn’t change anything.

So that’s all well and good, but it does nothing for us making it to the BTT.

BigTen Tournament Bid

As you can see, Michigan is just half a game back of the now coveted 6-spot, the final team to make the BigTen Tournament.  Our “magic number” is technically 7.  We need a combination of 7 Michigan wins or Purdue losses in order to lock up the tournament bid.  The problem is we only have 6 games left.  The other problem is we play Minnesota this weekend.  Minnesota is a very good team, and we’ll get to that preview in the next few days.

The good news is we finish with Northwestern in Evanston, a team that just isn’t good.  The other good news is Purdue has a very tough schedule down the stretch, facing off with Michigan State in East Lansing where they are as good as anyone else in the conference, and then, they face Illinois who will be looking to clinch a top seed in the tournament.  I don’t see Purdue winning more than 2 games in that stretch, so Michigan has a chance to make up ground.

Going into this weekend’s games, I think Michigan takes the 6th spot with a 4-3 record down the stretch while Purdue goes 3-3, missing the post season by half a game.

Rooting interests this weekend:

• Michigan over Minnesota.  Obviously.  We need this series.
• Michigan State over Purdue.  Yet again, obviously.  I don’t think they sweep, but they need to take at least two of three.
• Iowa not to get swept in Iowa City vs Penn State.  Penn State has an outside shot at taking the 6th spot, but would take some major upsets.
• Good Weather.  We’re already behind in the loss column.  We can’t afford to not win.  While losing may be worse, not playing could be just as bad down the stretch.  There is already rain in the forecast for this Saturday (game 2 vs Minnesota) and next Thursday (game 1 @NU).

Minnesota comes to town Friday at 6:35pm.  More on them soon.

Colorado
The Buffaloes came into this game ranked #12 in the country (Michigan was #1), but Michigan was able to dispatch them with relative ease. The final score was 13-4, and the Wolverines got scores from 6 different players, led by Trevor Yealy’s 5. The second quarter was the difference for Michigan. Leading by a narrow margin of 3-2 after the first, they exploded for 6 more goals before halftime, and the game was never again in doubt. Backup goalie Mark Stone played for the entire 4th quarter, ceding only one goal. Also the Colorado goalie played the whole game in cutoff sweatpants.

Minnesota
This game was also out of reach for the opponent by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, but it ended much sooner than that, for all intents and purposes. David Rogers, Riley Kearns, and Kevin Zorovich all scored within 2 minutes of each other in the first period, and the floodgates were opened. The Wolverines led 10-1 at the half, and backup goalie Mark Stone got his second consecutive day of significant playing time. The bench was emptied in the second half, as 10 different Wolverines found the back of the net (Yealy again led the team in scoring, this time with 4). However, the Gophers did manage to get a bit of scoring on in the second half, as they had 4 tallies in the half (3 in the 4th quarter alone). When all was said and done, Michigan was walking off the field with a dominating 17-5 victory over a clearly overmatched opponent.

Up Next
Michigan again hits the turf in Oosterbaan this weekend, squaring off against conference foe (and cross-county rival) Eastern Michigan on Friday night at 8:00PM. The Vanderbilt game previously scheduled for Saturday night, so EMU will be your only chance to see the team in action this weekend. Admission is $6 ($3 for students), so come out and support a very strong Michigan club program.

Trevor Yealy Photo by Clark Bell for Michigan Men’s Lacrosse.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Stu’s negative differential doesn’t necessarily say anything bad about him, so much as it says a lot about how important LLP’s performance was on this day.

Zack had a very good differential for how little he played, and he was on the floor for a big part of the run late in the second half that allowed Michigan to get back in the game. He wasn’t particularly active in it (except for one big block that caused a shot clock violation on the Gophers), but hey, he was out there.

Played almost the whole game, and shot much better (in terms of decision-making) than he had been.

CJ Lee good DEFENSE, not great OFFENSE. Did a much better job than usual breaking the press, which allowed Beilein to play him over Grady.

Huge. Shot the lights out in the second half when Michigan needed him most. Since I call him out when he’s a liability, I’d better give him props when he plays like this.

Wasn’t on the floor for a few of the negative shifts in the first half, but other than that played the whole game against much bigger opponents.

With such a small sample size, can’t really criticize his negative differential.

The differential number for Sims is surprising, considering he was the game’s leading scorer. He missed the shift in the second half where Michigan really started making the big comeback.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Got less playing time than last game, and wasn’t a major factor either way.

I saw him catch the ball and not shoot it on FOUR separate occasions. What an improvement! Actually had some very nice plays on defense and offense.

Hooray for big second half comebacks, especially one pulled off with DeShawn Sims on the bench against a team with very good size.

This team can’t win on the road.

This team can’t make the NCAA tournament.

Yes. We. Can.

Photo via Nothing is Illuminated.

Michigan takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers today at Noon (Eastern, 11AM local). The game, which is, like, super-important for tournament chances, can be seen live from The Barn on the ESPN machine.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Michigan gave fans hope for a tourney berth (the one they’ve been dangling in front of us on a string attached to a fishing pole for much of the year), by blowing out Minnesota in a game that wasn’t even nearly as close as the 12-point margin would indicate. Zack Novak blew the roof off Crisler from distance, and the rest of the team wasn’t so shabby themselves. Manny was limited with some foul trouble, and Sims wasn’t a huge factor from the paint (see: Minnesota’s enormous, shot-blocking big men), but everyone stepped up to get the job done, including Kelvin Grady.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan dropped road games to Iowa and Wisconsin, sandwiched around beating Purdue in Crisler Arena. They have gotten generally better on offense (mostly on account of hot shooting days against the Gophers and Boilermakers), while also getting slightly better on defense (mostly because they owned the Gophers in Crisler).

Minnesota won home games over Northwestern and Wisconsin, while dropping a roadie to Illinois. The defense has improved significantly in that short range, while the offense, a point of complaint for Gophers fans for much of the year, has continued its slide. Perhaps importantly for this game, they’ve turned the ball over more than they had been, and forced fewer turnovers by opponents than they had been prior to the Michigan game. Their defensive rebounding percentage has improved ever so slightly from “abysmal,” and they’ve managed to maintain their #1 block percentage in the intermediary.

And…?

If Michigan can win this road game, they nearly have a berth locked up, unless they choke one away in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. If Minnesota can win, they probably have earned themselves a berth as well. Needless to say, this game is huge for both teams. Sadly, I don’t see the Wolverines coming home with a win, especially considering their struggles away from home this year. HOWEVA, that isn’t to say all hope is lost. An inconsistent team can lose to anybody, but they can also beat anybody.

KenPom predicts a 66-61 Minneosta win in a 63-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 28% chance of emerging with the win in Williams Arena.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

A pretty active day on offense. Did a lot of work on the fast break, as well.

Didn’t play too much, but made the most of his offensive opportunities.

Not a great day, but had his moments.

Had a few turnovers late in the game, and didn’t shoot particularly well.

Hardly played at all.

On fire all day.

Didn’t play much, and was pretty much the only guy in negative differential.

DeShawn wasn’t really the featured player on this day. He shot a bunch from midrange, but didn’t make as many of them as he usually would.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Stepped up and got some significant playing time for the first time in a while.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

The biggest problem for Minnesota in 2007 was defense, and they ranked last in the nation in stopping their opponents. So what caused the turnaround? Minnesota recruited several JuCo players in the class of 2008, at least a couple of whom (Traye Simmons and Tremaine Brock) played key roles on the defensive unit. Also, Minnesota got Willie VanDeSteeg back after he was hampered by injury throughout the entire 2007 year.

One thing that this year’s Wolverines had in common with last year’s Gophers was turnover margin. The Gophers were 114th in the nation in 2007 in net turnovers, and Michigan’s team this year was 105th. Adam Weber reduced his interception total from 19 to 8 over the course of one year. With Michigan either returning Steven Threet or starting a true freshman, how much can the interception total (12) be expected to decrease. No, it wasn’t throwing picks that hurt Michigan this year, it was fumbling the football. Michigan lost 18 this year, so how can we expect that number to drop next year?

Minnesota’s offense in 2007 was actually pretty successful at moving the ball when it wasn’t coughing it up. In this way, the Gophers differed from Michigan 2008 in a pretty significant way. Michigan will have to rely an an upgrade at the quarterback position (Steven Threet staying healthy plus Tate Foricer entering should help) and along the offensive line (the group, which improved over the course of the year, returns all starters, plus adds a few redshirt freshmen who may be ready to contribute).

Minnesota last year may actually be the closest analog to Michigan this year. A new coaching staff installing new schemes on each side of the ball didn’t really have enough time with their team to get everything put together for a successful run in their first year. Michigan’s recruiting haul on the whole may not be quite so ready-to-play as MInnesota’s was last year.

Of course, Minnesota was vastly overrated this year, on the basis of a weak non-conference schedule and a soft schedule overall toward the beginning of the year. Toward the end of the year, they were exposed as something of a fraud. This will probably be what Michigan is like next year.

What I saw: I saw the Little Brown Jug stay on the same sideline as it has for 35 of the last 38 years. Sometimes Minnesota makes the game more interesting by taking a huge lead into halftime only for Michigan to wake up, storm back, and leave the Gophers emasculated. The Michigan defense spared us the suspense on Saturday by playing like the defense I originally expected to see after taking he last month or so. Call it an Italian-style defense, except the Wolverines took October off, instead of August.

The defense held Adam Weber to about a quarter of his yardage total from the previous week while completing neutering the Gophers’ offense. Minnesota could not have had more than 50 yards in the first half, while punting every single possession. Aside from their opening second-half drive, Minny was a complete embarrassment on offense, to Michigan’s credit.
What I didn’t see: The schizophrenic offense or the Nick Sheridan sleeper hold. With Threet concussed and still having headaches, Wolverines’ fans have to feel a little better. Sheridan was not spectacular but he was waaaaay better than I ever dreamed he would be. Sure, he threw some questionable passes but he did not infect the entire with ineptitude like I figured he would.

Who I watched: K.C. Lopata was so money. He is a good kicker so the fact that he was 5-for-5 on the day is not a surprise, but he had not attempted a meaningful field goal in a month and that was against Toledo. Ugh.

I also watched Justin Feagin play for the first time this season. I do not keep up with Michigan football as closely as you all do, but what was the reason that Rodriguez did not play him until facing a 7-2 team, on the road, with a successful season totally out of reach? I understand that he had the bulk of his yardage on one carry but I would be lying to you if said I did not expect him to be the starting quarterback in September 2009.

What I expect to see next week: Uh, more Feagin? It sounds like Minor and Threet will still be out against Northwestern but the Cats are coming unglued. NW’s offense is essentially a carbon copy of Minnesota so there is no reason that the Michigan defense cannot put the same vice on the Wildcats. I would be a total fool to predict another flawless offensive performance but their confidence must be at a season high.

What this can tell us about The Game: I have worried in the past that Michigan would magically put all the offensive pieces together against the Buckeyes. It would not be magic anymore but simply building on past, improved performances.

More alarming for Ohio State fans is the play of Michigan’s defense. Pryor and Wells are played better against Northwestern but that is only in relation to the miserable performance against Penn State. The Buckeyes offense can be stopped by an athletic defense that makes it difficult for Pryor to make his reads because, after 10 games, the Buckeyes clearly lack a consistent running attack. If the offense is not self-destructing, while the defense plays like last week, and Lopata is bombing field goals The Game may be a lot closer than most people anticipated.

Michigan made a huge mistake in hiring Rich Rod. The season only get worse.
Minnesota-28 Michigan-7

Minnesota has a very tough defense and an offense that can really move the ball through the air. They’ll beat Michigan by at least 14. Michigan is steamrolling towards 2-10.

Hail to this year’s fraudulent Wolverines! U of M alums will shun each of you forever! Learn to pour some coffee because that’s the job you’ll get on graduation! 2 and 10!

This Rod hire looks worse every week, he is infamous for his arrogance and failure to make adjustments. Chances are his tenure at Michigan will be a failure. Whether the players fit his system or not, there is no reason for the ineptitude his Michigan team has displayed this season. Good coaches learn to adapt.

I agree. R Rod’s master plan is to sacrifice this year’s team and make it go 2-10, so he can claim what terrible team he inherited from Lloyd Carr. This will set the expectations way low for future years. That way, when he does finally have a winning record, say 7-5, he hopes to be praised for what genius he is. In the end, RR will turn Michigan into another Purdue. Few decent years followed by “rebuilding” year, followed by few decent years, and then so on. Don’t expect another National Championship with him.

(Source)

Various outlets are reporting that Rich Rodriguez has called Steven Threet “very, very questionable” for Saturday’s game against Minnesota. Justin Feagin has been moved back to QB to back up Nick Sheridan. If that sentence doesn’t fill your veins with icy dread, I don’t know what will. Who knows, maybe Sheridan will be lost for the season and Feagin will go nuts on the Gophers, a la Justin Siller against Michigan? (Source)

Maybe it’s because I’ve been telling myself and anyone who will listen that this will work, but I have not really taken stock of how bad this season has been. Before last Saturday, Michigan had won two games by a total of 12 points and lost seven by a total of 87 points. Some of the games were competitive, but in Big Ten play I can’t really say Michigan should have won any of the games that it lost. The Wolverines were outplayed by better teams.

This was all sinking in by Saturday. I was resigned to a loss, even a blowout, against a team that Michigan has, quite literally, historically dominated. Even at half time, I figured the same old script would show itself. If this team has proven anything, it’s that it’s inconsistent. So expected the same old script: three and outs on offense; missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.

This is the first game that I’ve been excited to re-watch since the Toledo sadness happened. That was really when I lost my optimism for this team. Subsequent games made me question next year’s team. But one game made me remember why I was so excited to see this team play in August. What they lack in consistency they make up for in potential.

This offense was an absolute machine on Saturday with one quarterback who doesn’t throw well down field and one quarterback who doesn’t throw; with the worst offensive line any of us are ever likely to see; freshmen at almost every skill position; the top two running backs not playing at 100%. For the first time the offense was able to effectively counter the defense’s adjustments. In the past few games, the original script worked well, but once the defense adjusted, the offense stalled. There were a ton of new wrinkles (e.g. Feagin), some nostalgic wrinkles (e.g. the Braylon Edwards Memorial Diamond Formation), and parts of the basic the scheme that worked better this game than any game previous. This is what we have to look forward to. We got a preview of what this offense will be.

The defense, after giving up 48 points and roughly 6.82×10^23 yards against Purdue absolutely shut down an adequate if not amazing Minnesota offense. The defense was vintage Scott Shafer. The 3-3-5 stack was, as this blog and gsimmons guessed, likely and experiment designed to stop a decent running back (Kory Sheets) because there was a third string quarterback playing. The defense against Minnesota varied between 4-3, 4-3 over and 3-4 okie. The corners played up at the line both on man to man and on basic cover two. The defensive line and linebackers played well as a team and kept the running game contained very well.

My favorite part of the defensive game plan was the 3-4 Okie Chaos on passing third downs. I can’t imagine an offensive lineman or quarterback feels comfortable with 4 stand up potential blitzers moving in and out. I have to go back and look, but I don’t believe that Minnesota picked up a first down in one of these situations. Scott Shafer isn’t just a “press-man coverage and blitz” guy. He uses the threat of blitz just as well as actually blitzing.

This is what this team will become. This game proves that these guys can coach. I don’t care if Minnesota isn’t as good as advertised. The team that showed up and played could hang with most teams in the Big Ten. But when you have the youth and inexperience that Michigan has, it’s irrational to expect consistency game to game and from start to finish. After trying to revel in little victories like converting a third down or a good kick return, it’s nice to see the entire product and revel in a victory that results in win.

We caught a glimpse of what will happen, but the best part is that soon we’ll be living in the future.

Some people may say “yeah, but it was a gritty, hustle play by the Minnesota player to get down there and dig the ball out of the pile. That’s football.” To that, I’d say when a player has possession of the football and a knee, elbow, or hip hit the ground, the play is dead. It’s a simple if A then B. We had a situation A, but it was not followed by B.

I don’t blame the officials on the field. It’s a tough situation to call. It happens really quickly and it’s hard to get a good angle in a scrum like that. But that’s why we have instant replay. And Rodriguez shouldn’t have to call a timeout to give them time to do what ESPN did in 10 seconds. Rodriguez shouldn’t have to challenge since every play is reviewed.

What do you think was going up in the booth? The replay official was watching the game in real time on his uber-high def monitors and from that decided there was nothing the least bit questionable? I’m in favor of replays happening when the call questionable, not just when the official thinks he (or she) sees incontrovertible visual evidence. I’d rather break the flow of the game in order to ensure the correct call is made.

The player will show in this paragraph

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But doesn’t it seem like this year was what the Michigan fanbase needed? Learn to enjoy wins instead of fearing losses. I predicted a loss to Minnesota with my head, but never gave up with my heart.

Damn, does it feel good to have people lining up to kick us while we’re down, then shoving it in their faces. Boy, do I wish I had a screenshot of that empty trophy case.

Offense
The majority of Minnesota’s offense goes through QB Adam Weber. Weber is having a so-so statistical year, coming in at 36th in the country in passing efficiency, but it’s what he’s not doing that’s most notable: turning the ball over. Last year, he threw 19 interceptions, and this year he has been picked off just four times. His main target is notable white wideout Eric Decker, who, while nicked up, is expected to play this week. Other notable receivers include Ben Kuznia (also white), DeLeon Eskridge (not white, and also a tailback), and Nick Tow-Arnett (also white, but understandably – he’s a tight end). Aside from Decker, however, it’s not the wide receivers that make the passing game successful, it’s Weber’s distribution that’s paramount. If Decker is still a little banged up, Michigan may be able to take advantage somewhat (he has nearly triple the number of receptions as Kuznia).

In the run game, there were many predictions of doom when Duane Bennett went down against Bowling Green, and was lost for the year. However, DeLeon Eskridge has stepped in and performed admirably. In fact, he’s getting 4.2 ypc, only slightly worse than Bennett’s 4.4, against better competition.Minnesota’s worst rushing games came against Ohio State… Indiana(?) and… Montana State? They’ve gotten worse over the course of the year, and that’s hopefully something the Wolverines can capitalize on.

Defense
The Gophers’ main weapon on defense is the takeaway. They’re currently 1st in the nation in turnovers gained, and 2nd in overall turnover margin. They’re actually at or around middle of the pack by most other defensive metrics, such as rushing defense (53rd), Pass efficiency defense (51st), and total defense (65th), all against a fairly weak schedule. This means that if a team can hold onto the ball, they stand a good chance of moving it down the field against the Gophers. Of course, that means nothing to Michigan, as the Wolverines can’t hold onto the ball to save their collective lives.

The Gophers have faced some fairly anemic offense, but none so bad as that of Michigan. Add in the fact that it is Nick Sheridan expecting to start in place of the oft-injured Steven Threet, and Wolverines fans are likely in for a long day. Of course, turnovers-as-defense isn’t necessarily sustainable, and the Gophers were bad in that respect last year, so perhaps Michigan can get lucky and not turn it over too much.

Predictions
Michigan’s starting QB throws at least 2 interceptions.
Eric Decker cannot finish the game because he is too hurt.
The Wolverines lose the jug, by a score of 31-13.