QBs

CJ Bacher exits, opening the door for 5th-year senior Mike Kafka. Backing up Kafka will likely be redshirt sophomore Dan Persa, who played on special teams in 2008.

Analysis

Kafka got penty of playing time last year when Bacher missed time, and has plenty of practice experience in the system. He’s more of a running threat than Bacher was, though perhaps not quite the passer. The backups are all inexperienced in game situations.

RBs

Redshirt junior Stephen Simmons, who has played plenty over the past couple years when the starters were injured, will be the starter. Behind him, walkon Jacob Schmidt is the only player with a carry to his name. Jeravin Matthews, one of two true freshmen to play last year, is a likely candidate to be the primary backup.

Analysis

Tyrell Sutton and Omar Conteh have been carrying this team over the past couple years, so losing them will be a big hit. Even worse is the fact that Simmons had a horrific (sub 3 YPC) average last year. Still, he’s a fast guy, and if Northwestern can get him into open space, there is big-pplay potential.

Receivers

Northwestern’s top 3 receivers from last year depart, taking with them 73% of the position group’s receptions from last year. Stepping up are two notably white (not unlike Peterman and Lane) players in true sophomore Jeremy Ebert and former quarterback 5th-year Andrew Brewer (who may be back for a 6th year if he desires to seek a medical redshirt for his sophomore season). Junior Sidney Stewart, former Michigan safety Charles’s little brother, will probably be third wideout. Tight ends Josh Rooks and Brendan Mitchell both return.

Analysis

The Wildcats will have to basically start over in the receiving corps, as the returning players accounted for very little production last year (od for a team running a spread set). The lost players were also the best in terms of average per reception, so with a new quarterback and seemingly no deep threat, there could be trouble for the Northwestern passing game.

Offensive Line

Left guard Keegan Kennedy is gone after starting all of last year, but the rest of the Wildcat OL should still be around. Redshirt sophomore (and former walkon) Doug Bartels should start at one of the guard spots, redshirt sophomore Ben Burkett will return after starting all of last year at center, redshirt sophomore Al Netter will return after playing left tackle all of last year, and 5th-year Desmond Taylor will return at right tackle. That leaves just one guard position open, and primary backup Joel Belding is no longer around to fill in. 5th-year Kurt Mattes, who is a tackle by trade, may be called upon to fill in. Mike Boyle will be the key backup at tackle, and Keegan Grant, who was hampered by an ankle injury last year, is the main backup on the interior.

Analysis

The offensive line returns almost entirely intact, and perhaps more impressively, the Wildcats started 3 redshirt freshmen last year, giving them a young but experienced group. They’ll need it, with a ton of uncertainty at the skill positions. The group allowed very few sacks last year, but were below-average in paving the way for the run. With a more mobile quarterback this year, they could be doing a lot more run blocking.

Offensive Analysis

Northwestern has a pretty experienced offensive line, but the lack of talent and depth at the skill positions is rather frightening. Unless Simmons can improve by leaps and bounds from his performance last year, and Kafka can become a more well-rounded player, the Wildcats should have a pretty anemic offense. Look for some serious steps back from this group unless the offensive line just blows teams away.

Northwestern Defense

Defensive Line

5th-year Corey Wootton is a legitimate All-American candidate at one of the defensive end positions, and redshirt sophomore Vince Browne will probably man the other spot. At defensive tackle, Corbin Bryant is expected to slide inside from defensive end and fill a starting role. Seniors Marshall Thomas and Adam Hahn will rotate at the other spot. Sophomores Jack DiNardo and Kevin Watt are reserve defensive ends.

Analysis

Outside of Wootton, this defensive line is nothing to really fear. Starting a 280-lb former DE at tackle might be a problem in terms of run defense, as Corbin Bryant may not have the strength and size required to hold the point of attack. Losing the top two performers on the defensive line (Wootton was hurt for a portion of the year) invariably is a bad thing, and I expect a step back from the Wildcats’ defense.

Linebackers

Prince Kwateng is gone, and Nate Williams and Quentin Davie are the only known commodities in the linebacking corps. An otherwise inexperienced and unheralded player will have to step up in the third spot, perhaps Ben Johnson or Bryce McNaul.

Analysis

Kwateng left with the most tackles on the team, and without him (and with NO experienced players to step in), the linebacker group will take a serious step back. An unproven player will ave to either be a pleasant surprise or a liability at the second level for Northwestern.

Defensive Backs

The entire starting secondary from last year’s team returns, with seniors Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith at the safety positions, senior Sherrick McManis at one corner position, and redshirt sophomore Jordan Mabin (a freshman All-American last year) at the other. Plenty of depth also returns, with Brian Peters, Mike Bolden, and Justan Vaughn ready to fill in if needed.

Analysis

The secondary should be a serious strength for Northwestern. Last year’s top-25 pass efficiency defense returns every starter and all the key backups. The DBs were pretty good playmakers last year, recording 10 interceptions among the starters. If they can build on that season, they may be able to be the strength of the NU defense.

Defensive Analysis

The first two levels are a little weak (primarily linebackers), but the secondary should be pretty rockin’. With good pressure on the opposing QBs from the likes of Wootton, the playmaking secondary, with all its experience, should be able to get their fair share of turnovers in 2009. The main problems with the defense look to be the rush D, with the undersized d-line, and the offense’s potential inability to stay on the field.

Special Teams

Amado Villareal and Kyle Daley both depart. Stefan Demos, a junior, will continue punting duties, and may take over placekicking resposbility as well.

Analysis

Demos was a subpar punter last year, and likely doesn’t have the strongest leg in the world. Even if an unknown player can step in and take care of field goals, this unit will probably be a weakness in 2009.

Overall Analysis

Offense: bad, defense: mediocre to good. Northwestern probably won’t be as good a team as they were last year, and they likely won’t face as easy a schedule (top 20 easiest in the nation) as they did last year. Taking that all into account, it looks like there’s probably a precipitous slide down the Big Ten standings in order for the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald is a pretty good coach, so hopefully for Northwestern, it will be a rebuilding year for a strong 2010.

And as commenter JJ pointed out, Fetter is looking tired.  I picked up on this last week.  His pitch counts have been VERY high compared to his last few seasons.  Instead of 7 inning complete games at best, he’s been throwing into the 8th and 9th innings a lot this season.  I think the fatigue is catching up.  Hopefully he can recover fully for next week (that is, if tomorrow goes well).

Offensively, the high was the 9 run 7th inning for Michigan.  Dufek had a pair of bombs, six different batters had at least 2 hits.   The NU bullpen was just horrid.

The bad news is out of West Lafayette.  Purdue won 12-5 to decrease their magic number to one.  We must win out and Illinois must take the remaining two games at Purdue in order for Michigan to make the tournament.

As mentioned by Other Chris, NU is streaming a video feed of tomorrows game.  Its pretty crappy feed, but it is available.

Gotta love that chain link fence in the way. And yes, that’s the only camera angle you really get. Occasionally it gets blurry as they move slightly right or left. But its at least available (and for free if you search hard enough).

As I’m headed to Austin now, you can catch my thoughts and a less than play by play at @Varsityblue.  I apologize to those that may consider it twitter spam.  If I ever do it again, I’ll try to do it CiL instead of there.  It was just available at the time.  So deal with it.

Game 2 starts at 4pm EDT tomorrow.  The Purdue/Illinois game should be wrapping up right as Michigan starts.  Hopefully it’ll feature a big L for Purdue.

Go Illini! Go Blue!

Rocky Miller Park
Evanston, IL

Game 1 Thursday:4pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: Chris Fetter (6-3) vs. TBA

Game 2 Friday: 4pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: Eric Katzman (7-4) vs. Eric Jokish (3-7)

Game 3 Saturday: 2pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: TBA vs. Joe Muraski (3-5)

No word on audio.  I’m guessing there may not be any.  I’m headed to Austin today to pick up my little sister and head to a funeral.  I should be back by Sunday to hopefully have a post on making the tournament.  We’ll see.

Half 1

Half 2

Overtime

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Played a lot with Sims in foul trouble. Didn’t score a ton, but did what he needed to do.

Really came on offensively in the second half. Played a solid defensive game, as well.

His inability to handle the rock and (occasionally) to shoot free throw nearly cost Michigan the game, but they probably wouldn’t have been in it without his defense.

Had a few big plays defensively.

Shot kinda poorly, but did the gritty white guy thing.

Offensive liability, and he doesn’t help a ton on the defensive end, either.

Not a big offensive day, and he fouled out on a phantom call. He was big defensively though.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Only played when Beilein couldn’t rely on CJ to bring the ball up the court against the press.

Standard day.

The officiating in this game was a special kind of suck. This time, I think the Wolverines got the short end of the stick, and Sims’s 5th foul was an especially egregious call. CJ Lee can’t handle the ball at all, and Kelvin Grady really needs to step up his defense a bunch for the offense to get moving again. Beilein has favoired defense over offense for the past 8+ games, and it’s gotten a few results, but being able to get both halves from one player would be huge.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 3PM Sunday in Evanston. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The Wolverines took home a 68-59 victory in Crisler Arena that really wasn’t as close as the final score would seem to indicate. Michigan completely owned the boards on both ends (one of the few times they’ve been able to do so this season). More telling was the Wildcats’ shooting, particularly from 3-pt land. They were 10-27, including 4-13 from Craig Moore. DeShawn Sims and Kelvin Grady(!) led the god guys in scoring, and Manny Harris had a relatively quiet game, outside of his game-high 12 rebounds.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s ability to shoot the rock has continued to wane. Their ability to rebound it has increased, however, especially on the defensive end. Unsurpisingly, given the nature of their valiant efforts in losses to UConn and Michigan State, they have continued to slide in overall offensive efficiency, while their defensive numbers have gotten much better. Kelvin Grady,th Wolverines’ second-leading scorer the first time around, has been basically benched by John Beilein. The Wildcats have wins against Indiana and Chicago State and a loss to Illinois, which are basically neutral (excepting, of course, the total FAIL of their collapse against the Illini). They have a win against Wisconsin (positive) and a loss against Iowa (very, very negative) in that stretch as well. The Wildcats have gotten better at shooting in the meantime, but have also allowed opponents to shoot much, much better. Northwestern’s overall efficiencies on both ends have gotten worse.

And?…

If Michigan wants to win, they can’t count on Craig Moore to shoot poorly, especially in his own house (whatever the insignificant Northwestern basketball venue is called). They should certainly exploit their advantages in rebounding and overall athleticism. Getting to the line (especially off the offensive glass) should be the name of the game. Two big intangible factors will come into play in this contest: 1) Northwestern’s complete collapse against Illinois (especially with just a couple days’ turnaround), and 2) Michigan’s extended rest period, a situation which has served them well so far this year. Still, Michigan has struggled on the road this year, and though they have plenty of experience against the 1-3-1, Northwestern can beat anybody on any given night. On the other hand, they can also lose to anybody. Sound familiar?

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Tough day shooting, but he did a lot of other stuff (including a game-high 12 rebounds).

Less playing time than he’s been getting, and probably a reflection of how well he’s been shooting. Another long-ish break between games can hopefully get him back on track.

Tough day shooting, but so many gritty white guy rebounds.

Owned the beginning of the game, then seemed to fade.

Standard performance from Kelvin. I’d like to see him shoot fewer 30-footers.

With Sims in foul trouble, he really carried his own weight.

Decent day. Obviously, there’s room for improvement.

Standard CJ Lee.

Standard Dave Merritt

Got sparing playing time following a fairly strong perfomance against Penn State.

Anthony Wright made a shot. This is a noteworthy event.

What This Says…

The offense was working best when they weren’t shooting exclusively from the outside. I’m not going to sit here and say “throw it inside and see what happens” because I’m well aware that’s not Michigan’s offense. On top of that, Michigan doesn’t have a Shaq in the paint. DeShawn Sims is a good post player with a midrange game, but he is undersized at center. What I’d like to see is the team make more of the backdoor passes, and be a little more patient than they sometimes are in launching longbombs from three. Taking the opportunity to probe the inside every now and then will open things up for the whole offense.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 8PM tonight in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Northwestern, despite its reputation and unceremonious start to the season (namely, an 0-4 start in the conference), has reeled off two straight victories over top tiered competition in wins against Minnesota and AT Michigan State. The Wildcats are similar to Michigan, in that they shoot a bunch of threes and play a 1-3-1 defense. That defense was the key to their victory over Michigan State, as they were forcing turnovers left and right, and Michigan State had one of their worst shooting nights of the year. With Michigan facing the 1-3-1 every day in practice, do they have a slight advantage against it? Since Michigan’s slide began (which, in all honesty, began as early as the Wisconsin game, and at least as far back as the nail-biter over Indiana), the Wolverines have been falling fast down the rankings in terms of shooting percentage and opponents’ shooting percentage. Are these issues that can be corrected? For the most part, Michigan has simply been missing open looks, and opponents have been turning that offensive offense into confidence on their end of the court, where they’re making shots both open and ridiculous (Devan Dumes and Danny Morrissey excelling at the latter). If the long week of practice helps Michigan snap out of their funk, this game may not be as ugly as it first appears. If Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims can both play well tonight (something that hasn’t happened in quite some time), and a third player (one of Novak, LLP, ad Harris) can step up, that will go a long way to solving Michigan’s offensive woes.

Northwestern is led by guard Craig Moore, who leads the team in minutes played and eFG%. Sophomore guard Micheal Thompson is also a sharp-shooter for the Wildcats. The primary big man is junior Kevin Coble, who stamds 6-8, and has range not only in the paint, but also all the way out to three-point land. He could be considered something of a less-athletic DeShawn Sims. Most importantly, he gets very few offensive rebounds, but leads the team in defensive rebounding (among those who play significant minutes). The two most important players to shut down are Moore and Coble, but with Michigan’s luck, that just means some unheralded role player will step up and shoot the lights out.

With the three-game slide behind them, and a difficult slate up ahead, this game has become a must-win if Michigan wants to have any chance to win the tournament. If the long week of practice (and playing the role of underdog) can help Michigan, they may just be able to pull one off.

Lake the Posts, poster-blog for “hey give us respect, guys!” posting, has yet another issue with not getting what the Cats “deserve.” 8-4 Iowa has been selected to the Outback Bowl over the 9-3 Wildcats, who also hold a head-to-head victory on the season. Well, for once there may be a legitimate gripe here. Let’s take a look at the resumes:

Neither resume is particularly impressive, and they’re fairly hard to differentiate at this point (aside form the head-to-head win). Let’s break it down further.

Northwestern gets the non-conference nod, though it’s slightly skewed because they didn’t lose a non-conference game, whereas Iowa lost to the only legit opponent either team played. Northwestern’s crappy non-con schedule gets a bump of one spot at each position. If you were to sort just by quality of opposition, ignoring win/loss record, Iowa’s slate would take Northwestern’s behind the woodshed.

Overall, the resumes are very similar, but Iowa’s seems to be better on the whole, despite the head-to-head loss and the slightly worse record. The common opponents occupy a high slot on Northwestern’s resume, and their wins were eith
er comparable or not as impressive. In loss, Iowa was competitive in every game they played (and let’s not even get into how they should have beaten both Michigan State and Pitt), whereas Northwestern was either getting blown out by good teams, or losing to Indiana, of all teams.

Personnel and Formation
Northwester is in a spread formation, with trips to the right, and a single receiver to the left side of the line. Stephen Simmons is lined up to CJ Bacher’s right in the shotgun. Michigan counters with a 4-3 formation, with Brandon Harrison playing linebacker, and aligned slightly wider to the trips side. Stevie Brown and Charles Stewart are the safeties.

The Play

At the snap, all four Northwestern wideouts go downfield. The outside receivers run fade routes down the sidelines. The outisde slot runs a skinny post, and the interior slot runs a deep crossing route. Simmons comes out of the backfield as a checkdown, running a hitch route. Michigan counters with a cover-2 zone. Trent and Warren cover the fades on the outside, and Brown and Stewart cover the deep middle. Ross Lane Eric Peterman, running the skinny post, is wide open behind the safeties, and sprints into the endzone for one of the easiest touchdown catches of his life.

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Why it Worked
There is a little disagreement between Paul and me as to who is to blame on this play (though both of us think Stewart is the primarily culpable party). Trent and Warren seem to be covering the fades quite well in my opinion, leaving the safeties free to cover the other two downfield routes. Paul disagrees, and thinks Trent has lost his man, giving Stewart no choice but to cover the sideline route (of course, the Big Ten Network shows no replay that shows the secondary, which would certainly help decide who is to blame). Regardless, Stewart leaves Lane Peterman completely alone on the skinny post, as Brown has stepped up to cover the deep cross. It is apparent that Stewart is primarily to blame, as Brown bitches him out in the endzone, with no apparent protestations from Stewart.

Also helping Northwestern succeed on this play is one of the most ridiculous non-calls of a holding I’ve seen so far this year (except maybe in the OSU-OSU game). Tim Jamison has a free run at Bacher, except, of course, for the left tackles arm, which is wrapped around his neck. Just another example of the despicable officiating the Big Ten has seen this year (I won’t even get into Donovan Warren’s INT for TD that wasn’t…).

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

What I saw: Blah, blah, blah. You don’t care what I saw last week. We have talked enough about all those boring second-rate conference games. This week is the real deal. No matter how old I get and regardless of how many other things I have going on, this game makes me feel like I am 13-years old again. So, I am sure as hell not going to tell you to “get a life.” This game is very important.

Let’s skip ahead, shall we…

What I expect this week: Michigan has not been this excited for a game since the opening contest against Utah. In that game, the Michigan defense held Utah to 36 yards rushing on 43 attempts (.8 yards/rush). That turns out to be 150 less than the Utes’ season average.

A motivated Michigan defense can cause a lot of problems for this Ohio State offense. It is fashionable these days to say that the Ohio State offense has turned the corner, but a closer inspection reveals some big plays mixed in with a lot of short gains (1-3 yards) and even negative running plays. Pryor is a difference maker because he can run so well and Michigan has had difficulty defending a running a quarterback but, then again, lots of teams have difficulty stopping mobile quarterbacks. Just ask every SEC defense that faces Florida.

And, unless the Ohio State coaching veers dramatically from its recent trend (which they have been known to do in this game), the number of designed runs for Pryor will be a relatively low number. Stopping Wells will be the obvious focus of the Wolverine defense.

The problem is, Ohio State has a defense, too. And it has been playing really well of late. Combine that with the fact that Michigan’s offense is injury-riddled, which never allowed them to gain an appropriate rhythm, and you have a recipe for unleavened offense. Without gaining short fields off turnovers, it will be very difficult for the Wolverines to mount multiple scoring drives. I honestly believe that 250 yards of total offense would be an achievement for Michigan.

There has only been one time in the last 15 years when I was totally free of nerves for this game and that was 1998. That was the most talented Ohio State team I can remember and they were playing an average Wolverine squad coming off a national championship season. Michigan had no chance that afternoon. But I do not feel that way this week.

Michigan’s chances are not great but they have a little history on their side and sometimes that is all you need in a rivalry like this one. I have seen Shawn Springs fall down. I have seen Biakabutuka run for 300 yards. I have seen Stanley Jackson run a counter play to a Michigan LB.

I do not expect to see Nick Sheridan combine for 300 yards of total offense. But then again, I do not expect Tressel to be in a position “to go for three.”

Offense
The ‘Cats are hurting on this side of the ball, with their top two running backs lost for the year. Tyrell Sutton (2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year) and Omar Conteh (who stepped in for Sutton much of last year, including a 115-yard day against Michigan) will be replaced by sophomore Stephen Simmons and recently-converted WR Jeravin Matthews, a true freshman. Even before the top two went out for the year, Northwestern was near average in rushing, and that production can be expected to decrease without two talented players. In the passing game, Northwestern has relied on both CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka. Kafka has been more dangerous as a runner than a passer in his time filling in for an injured Bacher. Speaking of Bacher, there’s always the Official CJ Bacher Interception Statistic to draw on: when he starts and throws 1 pick or less, the Wildcats win. However, it is unclear exactly how healthy Bacher will be this weekend, though he should be available. Northwestern’s top 3 receivers are Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. All have seen their production decrease sans Bacher.

To me, it looks like a Minnesota to me. Without a credible running threat in the backfield, Northwestern’s offense looks a lot like that of the Gophers. That, of course, brings up the question of which quarterback starts for the Wildcats. With Kafka, they have a mobile signal-caller that isn’t the passing threat (and we saw how much success Michigan had defending against Justin Siller), and with Bacher, they have… GopherClone. That team spread the field and passed, without much of a run threat (though their offense is based on the RR spread, and we all know that Rodriguez would love to run the ball as much as possible). Either way, it looks like Northwestern’s options are limited. I’d like to think Michigan will be able to dial up a similar gameplan to last week, and trust their guys to man up on wideouts that aren’t as athletic.

Defense
Northwestern partisans have been hailing new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz as the second coming of Christ. Of course, the pragmatist would note that his early-season numbers were built up against the #111 offense (Syracuse), the #87 offense (Duke), the #49 offense… in 1-AA (Southern Illinois), and the #71 offense (Ohio). Two of Northwestern’s top defenders, Malcolm Arrington and Vince Browne, have been lost for the season. The Wildcats shouldn’t be expected to get tons of stops against any offense with legitimate threats on the ground and through the air.

That brings us to the Michigan offense, whose best threat through the air so far this season has been Steven Threet. When he missed time last week, Nick Sheridan filled in most competently. However, whoever ends up getting the start for Michigan this week will likely be operating without the services of Brandon Minor, who has emerged as Michigan’s best threat of moving the ball on the ground. Michigan’s offense might be something of a mirror image of Northwestern’s at this point, though I think Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw bring something to the table that Northwestern’s third-string running back may not. However, last week’s performance by the quarterback was probably a one-time deal, and the offense should regress this week.

Other Stuff
On top of injury news, this week may hinge on intangibles more than any other so far this year. Was Michigan’s performance last week the sign of better things to come with gained confidence, or just a one-week anomaly? Will the weather have an adverse effect on either team’s offense? These can’t be accounted for in a preview, however comprehensive it may be (and I’m under no illusion that this is a comprehensive preview).

Predictions
At least 3 (but probably 4) players take snaps for Michigan.
Northwestern has trouble moving the ball on the ground with anyone other than Mike Kafka, but they have a successful game through the air.
Michigan drops one to the Wildcats, 24-10.