//

2009 Opponent Preview: Wisconsin

Wisconsin Offense

QBs

Wisconsin started last year with something of a quarterback controversy. Dustin Sherer eventually wrested the job away from Allan Evridge halfway through the year, and kept it until the end. Sherer will be a 5th-year senior in 2009, and redshirt junior Scott Tolzien will back him up. Youngsters Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr will provide depth.

Wisconsin QBs Passing 2008
Name Comp Att % Yds TD Int Yds/Att
Dustin Sherer 104 191 54.45 1389 6 5 7.27
Allan Evridge 71 132 53.79 949 5 5 7.19
Scott Tolzien 5 8 62.50 107 0 1 13.38
Wisconsin QBs Rushing 2008
Name Rush Yds TD Yds/Rush
Dustin Sherer 49 19 1 0.39
Scott Tolzien 4 13 1 3.25
Allan Evridge 23 4 1 0.17

Analysis

Sherer was the (very slightly) better passer of the two main guys last year, and if he knows from the beginning that he’ll be full-time starter this year, the situation will probably improve even more. Sherer has a lot of experience in the system, and the Badgers are known for having quarterbacks who are more manager than game-changer.

RBs

PJ Hill departs from the “fat Wisconsin running back” position, only to be replaced by John Clay. Clay was the team’s second-leading rusher in 2008 as a redshirt sophomore. He’ll be backed up by junior Zach Brown, with Bradie Ewing getting a couple carries. Incoming freshman Montee Ball will get some carries.

Wisconsin RBs Rushing 2008
Name Rush Yds TD Yds/Rush
PJ Hill 226 1161 13 5.14
John Clay 155 884 9 5.70
Zach Brown 55 305 3 5.55
Bill Rentmeester (FB) 11 50 0 4.55
Bradie Ewing 4 14 1 3.50
Chris Pressley 3 6 0 2.00
Wisconsin RBs Receiving 2008
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
PJ Hill 7 72 0 10.29
Zach Brown 8 47 0 5.88
Bill Rentmeester (FB) 1 3 0 3.00
John Clay 1 2 0 2.00

Analysis

Though Hill was Wisconsin’s leading rusher last year, Clay is widely regarded the better runner. As long as he can keep his weight down, he can be a pretty productive back. Michigan has routinely been able to stop the fat Wisconsin backs, having more trouble with the speedy guys, so Zach Brown might be a bit more of a danger to Michigan.

Receivers

5th-year senior Garrett Graham was Wisconsin’s leading receiver in the repeated absence of Travis Beckum, who is the only departing player from the Badgers; receiving corps. Junior David Gilreath, redshirt junior Isaac Anderson, and redshirt sophomore Nick Toon will likely be the primary wide receiver targets.

Wisconsin Receivers Receiving 2008
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
Garrett Graham (TE) 40 540 5 13.50
David Gilreath 31 520 3 16.77
Isaac Anderson 21 286 0 13.62
Travis Beckum (TE) 23 264 0 11.48
Nick Toon 17 257 1 15.12
Kyle Jefferson 14 189 0 13.50
Lance Kendricks (TE) 6 141 0 23.50
Maurice Moore 5 61 0 12.20
Mickey Turner (TE) 4 46 1 11.50
Elijah Theus 2 17 1 8.50
Wisconsin Receivers Rushing 2008
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rush
David Gilreath 25 285 2 11.40
Isaac Anderson 3 21 0 7.00

Analysis

Wisconsin has used the TE pretty well in the past couple years, and they’ve gotten used to using Graham instead of the perpetually-injured Travis Beckum. He should be a big piece of the puzzle this year. Toon was one of the surprises of the spring, and he may take on a bigger role in the offense this year. He’s the tall split end that’s a complement to the shorter, speedy Gilreath and Anderson.

Offensive Line

Lots of hits here. Guard Kraig Urbik was drafted in the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and tackle Andy Kemp and guard Eric VandenHeuvel are also gone from the front. Returning will be left tackle Gabe Carimi, a redshirt junior who missed part of last year with injury, center John Moffit, another redshirt junior, and redshirt sophomore tackle Josh Oglesby, who filled in for both VandenHeuvel and Carimi when they were injured. True Sophomore Jake Current may step in to play one of the guard spots, with redshirt junior Bill Nagy likely filling the other slot.

Analysis

The Badgers lost three starters on the front line, which will hurt any team. This is especially true when all three were signed by NFL teams, and one was a third-round pick. Still, the Badgers had injuries last year forcing their youngster to get some playing time, so they won’t exactly be stepping in completely green. Considering the Badgers’ history of turning out great offensive linemen, there will definitely be a step back in 2009, though maybe not as great as it seems.

Offensive Analysis

The Badgers lose a couple important, but likely replaceable pieces. With the QB situation a little more settled, and John Clay likely to be more than able to take over as the leading rusher, the offense could be able to move the ball a bit. The offensive line lost its best player in Craig Urbik, but the Badgers always seem to be able to plug in some new guy and have serious success running the ball. As per usual, they will be a run-run-play action team.

Wisconsin Defense

Defensive Line

Wisconsin loses a few of key players from the front line, with DE Matt Shaughnessy the most talented, going in the third round of the NFL draft. DT/DE Mike Newkirk and and DT Jason Chapman are also gone. Senior DT Dan Moore will return, joined by redshirt senior Jeff Stehle. Redshirt sophomore Louis Nzegwu will be one of the defensive ends, along with 5th-year O’Brien Schofield. The depth on DL isn’t exceptional, but it’s there.

Wisconsin Defensive Line 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack
Mike Newkirk 59 9 4
O’Brien Schofield 40 8.5 5
Matt Shaughnessy 40 8 4
Jason Chapman 39 5 2
Dan Moore 19 3 0
Jeff Stehle 12 2 1
Louis Nzegwu 6 0 0
Brendan Kelly 5 0 0
Patrick Butrym 5 1.5 0
Joshua Neal 1 0 0

Analysis

The DL was nicked by graduation, and the depth here might struggle to start the year. If Shaughnessy’s pass rush can be replicated without him on one end, and a penetrator in the middle, the defensive line will only take a slight step back. Still, a step back is probably in order.

Linebackers

Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy may not have led the Wisconsin linebacking corps in tackles, but they were certainly two of the most important pieces in this unit. Jaevery McFadden will play his 5th year alongside a pair of new starters. Culmer St. Jean and Erik Prather have the most experience, and the redshirt junior and 5th-year senior are likely the starters.

Wisconsin Linebackers 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack Fum Int
Jaevery McFadden 85 2.5 0 0 0
DeAndre Levy 73 9.5 5 1 1
Jonathan Casillas 62 6 1 0 1
Culmer St. Jean 23 0 0 0 1
Erik Prather 18 1.5 0 0 0
Blake Sorensen 14 2 0 0 0
Elijah Hodge 9 1.5 0 0 0
Ryan Flasch 9 0 0 0 0
Tony Megna 1 0 0 0 0

Analysis

McFadden had the most tackles on the team last year, but Levy was most definitely the team’s best linebacker. Replacing a 3rd-round pick and a free-agent signing will definitely be a significant blow to this unit. If the backups can contribute right away, don’t be shocked, as they’ve both been in the system for a while. However, they don’t have the same NFL hype that the outgoing players did.

Defensive Backs

The Badger secondary should be stacked. The team only loses Allen Langford, and though he was a good player, the experience that another year in the system and game time earned by the other players should improve their play in 2009. Redshirt junior Jay Valai returns at strong safety (with backup by 5th-year Aubrey Pleasant), and 5th-year Chris Maragos, a Western Michigan transfer, took over at free safety by the end of last year, replacing classmate Shane Carter. The corner positions will likely be manned by redshirt junior Niles Brinkley and redshirt sophomore Mario Goins.

Wisconsin Defensive Backs 2008
Name Tack TFL Sack Int
Jay Valai 57 4 1 0
Allen Langford 47 1 0 2
Chris Maragos 45 0 0 1
Niles Brinkley 40 1 0 4
Shane Carter 37 0.5 0 2
Aubrey Pleasant 26 1.5 0 0
Mario Goins 20 1 0 0
Antonio Fenelus 13 0 0 0
Prince Moody 9 0 0 0
William Hartmann 7 0 0 0
Devin Smith 6 0 0 0
Kevin Claxton 5 0 0 0
Tyler Holland 3 0 0 0
Andrew Lukasko 1 0 0 0

Analysis

There is a ton of experience returning in the secondary for the Badgers, and a pretty good wealth of talent, as well. Several of the Badgers have started games at their positions, even the backups. This should be a very strong unit for the Badgers, and their pass defense, which was 24th in efficiency last year, could improve.

Defensive Analysis

The front lines for Wisconsin are weaker than the secondary, which looks like it will be obscenely good this year. If the pass rush can keep up without a few key pieces up front, opposing teams could have trouble moving the ball through the air. Fortunately for Michigan, the run game is their strength, and that should be the (relative) weakness of the Badger D.

Special Teams

Specialists Phillip Welch, a redshirt sophomore kicker, and Brad Nortman, a true sophomore punter, both return for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Kicking 2008
Name XPM XPA % FGM FGA % Long
Phillip Welch 39 40 97.50 20 24 83.33 52
Wisconsin Punting 2008
Name Punt Yds Avg
Brad Nortman 66 2761 41.83

Analysis

Welch was pretty good last year, and considering it was his freshman year, he could continue to improve. The case is the same for Nortman, though he was slightly below-average in the Big Ten in net punting last season.

Overall Analysis

The Badgers have some rebuilding to do on the front lines on both side of the ball. For a team that molds itself in the classic Big Ten model of running the ball and stopping the run, that could be a problem. However, most everywhere else looks to be a strength, with receivers on the offense and secondary on the defense being the crowning achievements. Will Wisconsin make a slight move away from the classic pounders to take advantage of team strengths? Given my opinion of Bret Bielema, I’m inclined to say no, but he can’t be that bad of a coach, right?

Posted under Analysis, Football

Comments Off on 2009 Opponent Preview: Wisconsin

Tags: ,

2009 Schedule: First Glance

With the 2009 football season looming a mere 4+ months away, it’s as good a time as any to take a first look at Michigan’s upcoming schedule, and determine whether the teams the Wolverines will face this year should get better or worse (or remain the same) from last year to this. I also reserve the right to be completely wrong.

Western Michigan
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 MAC)
Key losses: S Louis Delmas, LB Austin Pritchard, WR Jamarko Simmons
Key returning players: QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West
Projection: Same. Sure, teams lose players to the NFL every year, but it’s not fair to the Broncos (nor would it be to basically any MAC team) to assume they’ll be able to replace a second-round pick in the secondary. However, the offense should really continue trucking behind the QB play of Tim Hiller. The Broncos should be about the same as they were last year, though they’ll rely even more heavily on a high-flying offense to make up for a much weaker defense.

Notre Dame
2008 Record: 7-6 (0-1 Syracuse)
Key losses: WR David Grimes, S David Bruton
Key returning players: QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Armando Allen, WR Golden Tate
Projection: Up. Based on roster composition alone, the Irish should be pretty rockin’ this year. One impoortant caveat: you could say that about the last two years as well, and they were somewhere between terrible and mediocre over each of the previous two seasons. Is Charlie Weis just one big, fat FAIL, or will he start to get the talent he has assembled to perform? There’s no excuse (lol book title/disingenuous motto) for the Irish to not beat up on most of their schedule this year.

Eastern Michigan
2008 Record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)
Key losses: RB Terrence Blevins, WR Tyler Jones, LB Daniel Holtzclaw, S Jacob Wyatt
Key returning players: QB Andy Schmitt, WR Jacory Stone, LB Andre Hatchett
Projection: Up. The Eagles return some key pieces, though they also lose some important ones, the upgrade at the head coaching position appears to be a substantial one. Eastern was terrible last year, save the upset of Central Michigan in their final game of the year, and even anything approaching competency would be a leap in the right direction.

Indiana
2008 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Marcus Thigpen
Key returning players: QB Ben Chappell, QB/WR/? Kellen Lewis, WR/CB Ray Fisher
Projection: Same. You can tell the Indiana coaching staff is really grasping at straws in an effort to not get fired at the end of this year. They’re moving key players around (2nd-leading receiver Ray Fisher to corner, best offensive weapon Kellen Lewis all over the field, etc.), and completely revamping their schemes (reports say they’ve almost exclusively worked out of the pistol this spring). If it doesn’t work, Bill Lynch and co. are probably going to get the axe.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)
Key losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, S Otis Wiley
Key returning players: LB Greg Jones, WR Mark Dell
Projection: Down. The Spartans were beneficiaries of a bad Big Ten and some good luck last year. They were more like a 7-6 team than the 9-4 that they actually went. Take away 3 of their 4 most important players (the fourth is Jones), and they should be worse. Take away that luck, and they’re just a team. Adam Rittenberg will still predict that they win the National Championship.

Iowa
2008 Record: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Shonn Greene, DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul,
Key returning players: WR Andy Brodell, LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, QB Ricky Stanzi
Projection: Same. The Hawkeyes lose arguably their three most important players in Greene (no, Rittenberg, you can’t just baselessly say “I think Jewel Hampton will be at least as good as they guy who won the Doak Walker Award”) and the defensive tackles. However, they upgrade slightly at almost every other position, and assuming they can stay healthier than they have in the past couple years, they should be about as good as they were in ’08. Of course last year, they were something of an anti-MSU, and lost a couple games they shouldn’t have. The Hawkeyes will be about the same quality of team, but the record may improve.

Delaware State
2008 Record: 5-6 (5-3 MEAC)
Key losses: QB Vashon Winton, RBs Chris Strother and Kareem Jones, LB Kevin Conner
Key returning players: DB Avery Grant, WR Laronne Moore
Projection: Down, down down. For a team that wasn’t even good to begin with, losing 3 of your top 5 tacklers, your 4-year starter at QB, and your top 3 running backs can be little other than a recipe for disaster. Delaware State is a true 1-AA cupcake, and will be even worse this year than they were in 2008.

Penn State
2008 Record: 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: WRs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, 3 offensive linemen
Key returning players: QB Daryll Clark, RBs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, LB Sean Lee
Projection: Down. The Spread HD worked in 2008 because Clark was on-point all year, and the Lions had the skill position talent on the outside to force defenses to spread the whole field. With Clark tailing off in the last few games (albeit due to injury, perhaps), and the OL and wideouts gone, PSU won’t be the offensive force that they were last year. Defensively, the return of Sean Lee should help in the middle. However, the top 3 defensive ends left, and #4 is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Illinois
2008 Record: 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: LB Brit Miller, CB Vontae Davis, WR Will Judson
Key returning players: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, LB Martez Wilson
Projection: Same. Like Iowa, the record might improve, but the team will be about as good in 2009. The offense should really click with a senior Juice Williams and junior Arrelious Benn, though you could have said the same last year (and the Illini were awesome at times, just horrifically inconsistent). The defense should take major steps back with its best two players, LB Brit Miller and Vontae Davis, gone and the third best player, LB Martez Wilson, doing things like getting stabbed in a bar during the offseason.

Purdue
2008 Record: 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten)
Key losses: QBs Curtis Painter and Justin Siller, RB Kory Sheets, WRs Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy, LB Anthony Heygood, S Torri Williams
Key returning players: S Joe Holland, QB Joey Elliott
Projection: Down. Purdue sucked last year, and nearly all of their best players are leaving town because their eligibility has expired (everyone but Siller) or because they cheat on exams (Siller). Couple all that with a transition to a new offensive scheme and a plan to rely on several true freshmen despite their lack of guru approval, and Danny Hope’s first year in West Lafayette may be a difficult one. There could be a coaching upgrade as Wilford Brimley had been mailing it in the past couple years, but there is basically no talent for the Boilers to work with.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB PJ Hill, TEs Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Key returning players: QB Dustin Sherer, WRs David Gilreath and Nick Toon, LB Jaevery McFadden
Projection: Up. The Badgers were a team that lost plenty of games they shouldn’t have, and the important question for tham is whether that was bad luck or the horrifically bad coaching ability of Bret Bielema. The early appearances are a bit of both, so the Badgers should be a bit better, but not by leaps and bounds. Hill wasn’t even Wisconsin’s best RB for much of the year, and Sherer was the better QB, despite Allan Evridge starting the year under center. Simply getting the right pieces the ball more often should help. I think Bielema has a definite ceiling, especially with players he has recruited and coached for four year.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 10-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Beanie Wells, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline
Key returning players: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, CB Chimdi Chekwa
Projection: Down. The Buckeyes really should have been awesome last year, and might have been if Terrelle Pryor had started the whole year, and not been a true freshman. Alas, this was the case, and OSU’s last best chance at a national title for the next couple years leaves town with Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Regardless, the Buckeyes are never going to fall completely off the map as long as Jim Tressel is the coach, so there’s a definite floor for their team. either way, they’ll take a significant step back in 2009.

Posted under Analysis, Football

UFR: Wisconsin II

The shooting data can be found in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 29min -8
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1 0/1 1/1

Made a couple gritty white guy plays (normally the domain of Novak), but didn’t shoot well against the Badgers’ suffocating perimeter defense.

Zack Gibson 6min +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1/1

Actually played very well. Against a Wisconsin team with lots of tall white guys, I wish he would have gotten more run.

Manny Harris 38min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 1/2 0/1
Midrange 0/1 2/4 1/1
3-pt 1 0/1 1/4

Has a really tough time when the officiating tends to let them play. Of course, that was the standard on one end of the floor for most of the game.

CJ Lee 32min +6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 2/3

Actually a very good day, considering the only “1” was when Manny screwed him over in a low-clock situation. The differential is also quite good for a 5-point loss.

Laval Lucas-Perry 11min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1 1/1

Didn’t get a ton of minutes, but shot a little better than we’ve come to expect (sad that “better than expected” has become 50% on open 3s).

Zack Novak 34min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0 1/2

Didn’t step up as the big third guy, but played admirably against players much taller than he is.

Jevohn Shepherd 0min
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

DNP – coach’s decision.

DeShawn Sims 36min -10
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1 1/2 1/1 1/1 1/2
Midrange 1/1 1/4 2/2
3-pt 0/3 0/1

The three-point shooting is bad (though most of them were chucks at the end), and the 1/4 from midrange on makeable shots is uncharacteristic, but think how much more effective Sims could have been with a legit bigman by his side.

David Merritt 9min -9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1

Limited playing time, limited effectiveness.

Kelvin Grady 1min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Hardly played at all.

From the differentials, it would appear that point guard play by anyone not named “CJ Lee” was an issue in this game. I’d say this was the case, though I think Grady needs to get minutes in order to be effective as anything other than a press-breaker or spot-up shooter. The Wisconsin defense was pretty good throughout the game, and Michigan’s lack of size really hurt. It’s easy to see how this team will improve next year.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Comments Off on UFR: Wisconsin II

Tags: ,

Differentials: Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue

I haven’t had a chance to re-watch and score the data for these three games, but that shouldn’t prevent me from posting the (admittedly late) differential data. When I get a chance to grade the shooting, I’ll post those up as well.

Iowa

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 7:47 8-12 -4
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:10 0-2 -2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :13 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :29 0-3 -3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:05 6-3 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:42 2-0 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:07 10-5 +5
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:27 3-3 0
Totals 20:00 29-28 +1

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:45 5-9 -4
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:23 6-4 +2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:21 3-3 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:17 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:05 2-0 +2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:47 2-2 0
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 5:22 6-8 -2
Totals 20:00 21-22 -1

OT

Overtime
Lineup Time Score Differential
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:12 0-7 -7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:48 4-7 -3
Totals 5:00 4-14 -10

Purdue

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:58 5-7 -2
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:52 3-0 +3
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson :38 1-0 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Gibson :46 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Gibson 2:17 5-8 -3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :50 1-1 0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:55 4-3 +1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:39 5-3 +2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims :24 0-0 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:27 4-3 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:14 9-9 0
Totals 20:00 37-34 +3

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:08 9-5 +4
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:16 3-0 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:49 9-7 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson :14 0-3 -3
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:49 0-4 -4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:28 6-0 +6
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 1:18 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 5:10 13-11 +2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:53 3-7 -4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :10 0-2 -2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :18 3-3 0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims :27 2-0 +2
Totals 20:00 50-44 +6

Wisconsin

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:54 9-16 -7
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:47 5-2 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 2:12 1-4 -3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 1:24 0-2 -2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:59 13-2 +11
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims 2:44 6-6 0
Totals 20:00 34-32 +2

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:26 2-7 -5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:06 0-6 -6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:20 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:25 5-0 +5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Wright, Gibson :44 0-3 -3
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Wright, Sims :42 2-0 +2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:07 5-4 +1
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:10 7-8 -1
Totals 20:00 21-28 -7

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Wisconsin 60 Michigan 55

In a way, the game against Wisconsin on Sunday showed how similar to the 2008 football team John Beilein’s squad really is: there were flashes of brilliance, and certainly lots of reason to be hopeful for the future. However, despite a few good players, the team simply doesn’t have enough quality depth to win many of the games in which they come close. Unlike the football team though, it was slow starts and not-strong-enough finishes that doomed the team against the Badgers.

There were also similarities to the Michigan basketball teams under Tommy Amaker, in which the offense was disjointed for too long, and several possessions ended with a hopeless three thrown up to beat the buzzer.That contrasted with many other possessions, to be fair, in which the crisp passes and cuts opened up enormous shooting lanes for open threes or layups.

The refereeing was inconsistent yet again (as it seemingly always is), though it wasn’t bad enough that I think it was a huge factor in Michigan’s losing the game, unlike the contest against Iowa.

The Wolverines are good, but they just aren’t good enough to win a game like this… yet. However, they are good enough to win a game on the road against Minnesota, and they’ll need to do just that on Saturday in order to keep the dreams of returning to the tournament alive.

Posted under Basketball

Comments Off on Wisconsin 60 Michigan 55

Tags: ,

Preview: Wisconsin II

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at 2PM today (Eastern time, 1PM local). The game can be seen live from the Kohl Center on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Wisconsin: National Ranks
Category Michigan Wisconsin Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Wisconsin eFG% D 153 153
Mich eFG% D v. Wisconsin eFG% 169 111 W
Mich TO% v. Wisconsin Def TO% 18 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Wisconsin TO% 157 5 WW
Mich OReb% v. Wiconsin DReb% 265 8 WWW
Mich DReb% v. Wisconsin OReb% 164 203 M
Mich FTR v. Wisconsin Opp FTR 318 64 WW
Mich Opp FTR v. Wisconsin FTR 27 224 MM
Mich AdjO v. Wisconsin AdjD 57 54
Mich AdjD v. Wisconsin AdjO 77 21 W

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The slide began. The Wolverines dropped a 12-point game on their home floor, in which Zack Novak was easily the team’s MVP. Michigan was down the entire game, and by double digits through most of the second half. The game was at least as much of a blowout as the final score indicated.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines’ once-sure tourney bid has declined into a bubble that has moved inches closer to bursting ever since the demoralizing Badger loss. The team has struggled on offense since losing to Wisconsin, and instead has recently re-invented itself as something of a defensive unit (maybe not a stellar one, but good enough to win some games). Good wins like Illinois and Purdue have been interspersed with losses like Iowa and near-losses like Indiana. A 10-2 start has turned into an 8-9 slide ever since.

Wisconsin started out the season very strongly, but has also gone on something of a slide lately. They seem to have turned it around as a 6-game losing streak flipped over to a 5-game winning streak before succumbing to the Spartans a week ago in their last outing.

And…?

Both teams need this win to enhance their tournament resumes. If Michigan can come away with a big road win, they might be just one win in the Big Ten Tournament away from clinching their first ticket to the Big Dance since 1998. The Badgers are in similar situation, and have the home-court advantage in this one, a big advantage. Wisconsin is now solidly in the tournament, but a losing streak to end the season could be devastating.

KenPom predicts a 66-58 Wisconsin win in a 58-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 20% chance of emerging with the win in the Kohl Center.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Comments Off on Preview: Wisconsin II

Tags: ,

Preview: Wisconsin

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Wisconsin today at 2PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Wisconsinl: National Ranks
Category Michigan Wisconsin Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Wis eFG% D 80 142 M
Mich eFG% D v. Wis eFG% 71 81 M
Mich TO% v. Wis Def TO% 11 256 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Wis TO% 132 36 W
Mich OReb% v. Wis DReb% 191 11 WW
Mich DReb% v. Wis OReb% 256 172 W
Mich FTR v. Wis Opp FTR 156 25 WW
Mich Opp FTR v. Wis FTR 16 82 M
Mich AdjO v. Wis AdjD 16 81 M
Mich AdjD v. Wis AdjO 134 45 W

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

For the first time in a while, Michigan has a distinct deficit in multiple categories. Many of these are predictable for a perimeter-oriented team: Wisconsin is much better at rebounding and Michigan doesn’t get to the free throw line very often. Defensively, Michigan doesn’t force as many turnovers as one might hope to give them an advantage over Wisconsin. This is somewhat odd because the 1-3-1 is designed to force the opponent to give up the ball, but the Wolverines have been going with more man-to-man defense of late, so that may be a partial explanation. Overall, Wisconsin is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan is still the favorite though, and Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Wolverine triumph, with a 70% chance of victory.

In the game plans, the main area that is strongly correlated with both Michigan’s and Wisconsin’s efficiencies is Wolverine effective field goal percentage. Since Michigan has an advantage in it (however slight it may be), the Wolverines may have an advantage in performing well on offense today. The turnover rate for Wisconsin may also play a role. The Badgers have an advantage of nearly 100 places in the national rankings. Regardless, this is definitely the most evenly-matched game Michigan has played in a while.

Of course, with a team in the national spotlight, and one in Michigan’s own conference, the key players will be more known to Wolverines fans, and there are bound to be more of them. Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon are all key players for the Badgers. Each has played in at least 73% of available minutes (the next closest player has less than 50%). Landry has star power, and is most mentioned in the national media, but it is Hughes who leads the Badgers in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and free throw rate. The point guard also (obviously) leads the team in assists, and really makes things go for Wisconsin.

This should be the first real test for Michigan in quite some time (since Oakland? Duke even?), and it’s time for the Wolverines to put up or shut up. Has this Michigan team been putting in a lackadaisical effort because they knew they would beat inferior teams anyway? Or are they really just not as good as we think/hope? A big win today would be a great start to making a run through conference season, and hopefully into the tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Comments Off on Preview: Wisconsin

Tags: ,

Inside the Play: Wisconsin

The Situation
There are 2 minutes and 28 seconds left in the third quarter, and Michigan’s offense is like, kinda sucking. And by “kinda sucking” I mean “had 31 yards in the entire game prior to this drive.” However, with 54 yards already racked up in this one drive, a touchdown would be the perfect thing to break the offensive funk. It would also put Michigan down by only 12 points, despite Wisconsin dominating most of the first three quarters. They might just be able to get back into the game…

The Personnel and Formation
Michigan is on the right hash in a basic spread set. Brandon Minor is the running back to Steven Threet’s left. Greg Mathews and Junior Hemingway are the wideouts to the left and right, respectively. In the left slot is Martavious Odoms. At slot on the right side is tight end Kevin Koger, appearing in a game for the first time this year. Wisconsin counters with a 3-2-6 dime package. The four CB/Nickel players are head up over the receivers. The linebackers are head up over Threet and Minor. The two safeties are deep.

The PlayAt the snap, Threet takes a 3-step drop. Minor sets as though he’s pass blocking, though Wisconsin only comes on a three-man rush. Free of the duty of protecting Threet, Minor runs a short circle route out of the backfield. Odoms runs a 10-yard stop route. The other three receivers all run vertical routes, with Mathews and Hemingway on fly routes down the sideline, and Koger running a seam down the middle. 

Wisconsin rushes the three linemen, runs man coverage on the receivers (and backs, including a spy on Threet), and has two safeties taking deep halves over the top. Threet goes deep to Koger, who is behind his defender. Koger makes the catch at the 6, and isn’t hit by a safety until after he’s in the endzone. 

Why it Worked
First things first, if your receivers are able to get open against man coverage, this is an effective play call against 2-man-under defense. Considering Wisconsin had a nickel corner lined up in press coverage against a TE, Koger should be able to get open, the question is whether he’ll be able to maintain that separation. With his athleticism, Koger is able to defeat the defender down the field. 

The wideouts on the outside are able to force the safeties to stay wide, so they aren’t leaving their corners on an island (which they don’t want to do in 2-man-under coverage – their duty is to defend anything over the top). That horizontal stretch allows Koger to catch the ball in the middle of the field in the seam between the deep men. Allow me to point out here that this is the point of Michigan’s “look over to the sideline” no-huddle offense. The coaches in the booth saw two safeties high, and knew that a deep seam route would likely be effective. They told the coaches down on the field, who then relayed the read to Threet. One must assume that as he gets more comfortable with the offense (probably not until future years), Steve will be able to make these reads himself.
The protection on this play was also good. Michigan’s dynamic offense forces the defense to account for every player, including the quarterback (though keep in mind that Michigan’s offense had been anything but stellar at this point in the game). Because of that, Wisconsin had to rush only three men in order to man up on everyone and keep two safeties high. Michigan’s offensive line, for all their difficulty run-blocking, has actually performed fairly well in protection so far this year, and the five blockers (which would have been four with Minor if the LB had blitzed) were easily able to corral the pass rush. Threet had enough time in the pocket to let Koger go deep, and the timing was perfect.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching

Across the Border: Wisconsin

Massey from Buckeye Commentary offers his take on Michigan’s win over Wisconsin. And hey! He actually watched the game this week.

What I saw…

Wow. I will tell you what I saw – an entirely different team appearing from the locker room after halftime. Let’s focus on the action after halftime. No need to dwell on that first half.

That was an impressive turn around considering their performance for the previous 6 quarters. They never quit and even stepped up their play. The team obviously believes in Rodriguez and continues to play hard for him. I am not sure what a galvanizing win is supposed to look like, but a new Wolverine team has showed up in the second stanza. At the very least, the players have to feel good about their performance and believe that execution will lead to more victories. I think this win is more important to the program at large than this particular season.

I also saw: Michigan overcome horrible field position in the second half. Do you realize their average starting position was their own 20-yard line?…I also saw Threet run farther without being tackled than I ever thought I he would. I loved the two hands at the end…Speaking of Threet, how about that jump pass on the first possession of the second half. Tebow-esque?…For the most part, Wisconsin did not cross midfield in the second half until their penultimate drive. Their opening drive made it into Michigan territory for a few plays, another started at Michigan’s 46 (because of a penalty) and went backwards, and one other drive made it to the Michigan 49-yard line. Wisconsin never sniffed a scoring opportunity until they were desperate.

What I didn’t see…

Those underachieving Michigan linebackers I keep reading about online. I know Beckum was out, which helped their cause, but the Michigan defense (and linebackers) played well. Hell, they even scored a touchdown. They gave up 19 first half points but you can thank the turnovers for that. Wisconsin only gained 145 yards on their five scoring possessions. If a team like Wisconsin only has to average a 30-yard drive to score, they are going to get points. In the second half, the Badgers went nowhere for 25 minutes.

I also did not see: Nick Sheridan, which was somewhat surprising considering Threet’s halftime stat line…Wisconsin’s ability to cover the intermediate routes. (Mathews dropped the two long pass attempts I can remember.) Give Michigan’s coaches credit for using those routes over and over…Wisconsin jump the snap. Michigan seems to snap the ball in the same rhythm each play – about one second after Threet claps…Any reason not to go for two after the interception return. I understand there is some debate on that point, but a successful try takes pressure off the defense.

Who I watched…

I have to admit, I did not watch anyone in particular. There was not much to watch in the first half and by the time the scoring burst was over, I had been transformed into your basic fan. I was the purest of spectators, without agenda or analytical bent. I was just watching a great finish.

What I expect next week…

Let me play Captain Obvious for a moment and say that a performance similar to their second half will make for a close game. Vegas has the Wolverines as the favorites, so they appear to be counting on that continued performance. Michigan’s offense should look improved against Illinois, but can the defense slow down Juice. I doubt it, and I think Michigan will need to score 30 points to win the game. That means that the offense will have to take some chances early in order to avoid having to play catch-up for a second straight game…I also expect that the boos will be gone for a while. The crowd for the Illinois will be far less timid after that comeback and well be ready to go from the beginning.

What this game tells me about The Game…

Michigan is capable of stringing first downs against a legitimate defense when they do not engage in a fumble festival. We know Ohio State has struggled with spread attacks in the past, so Michigan may be able to move the ball if they continue to improve on offense. It is difficult to speak with certainty regarding their response to adversity since this was a home game (see Notre Dame for opposite road reaction) but I think this win can provide the confidence that was sorely lacking. I have to admit, I have a renewed interest in watching this team. I was really getting bored after four games.

Posted under Analysis

Comments Off on Across the Border: Wisconsin

Tags: ,

Instant Reaction: Wisconsin

This is a collection of text messages I sent to Tim during the game. They are in chronological order:

  • so notre dames defense is really bad then…
  • i thought that was nfl only. uconn showed thats completely legit (this is about the fair catch call)
  • yakety sax
  • :(
  •  sheridan eta (I didn’t want this, but I am surprised that the staff stuck with Threet all game. Our starter ladies and gentlemen)
  • that was a sheridan-esque pick to end the half
  • guess what richrod is asking for christmas (the answer is an offensive line)
  • games i needed to be drunker for:
  • i think the 2010 board may need to debut this week to prevent mass suicide
  • chocolate milk power?

After that, it became a game and the phone stayed in the pocket. For most of the year, the team has looked as though it gets stronger in the second half and even into the fourth quarter.  This game should difinitively prove that Michigan is officially a second half teaml, which for anyone who watched the 2005 seaon, is a welcome change.

This has been seen a lot and posted here more than once, but it bears repeating.  You go twelve rounds…
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPyST7zp5kg&hl=en&fs=1]

Posted under Analysis