Midweek games are the traditional trap games that really haunt the top ranked teams in college baseball. You generally schedule cupcakes, throw whatever you have left that resembles a starting pitcher, a few of your backup players to earn experience, and pray like hell the other team just doesn’t have one of those nights where they’re hot. College baseball, even more so than college basketball, has a much more even playing field. Teams like #3 Texas A&M (NBCWA Poll) can fall to teams like Centenary College. The midweek game is where depth is exposed. The underdog throws out the best they got to topple the Goliaths.

Michigan 9, North Florida 8
Box Score
Win – Wilson (1-0) Loss – Lott (0-1) Save – Burgoon (1)

Michigan just missed their first weeknight upset at the hands of the North Florida Osprey. In front of 762 fans in a meh attempt at a White Out, Michigan prevailed by the narrow margin of 9-8. If it weren’t for North Florida’s pitching collapsing a bit in the 4th inning, Michigan would have lost this game pretty badly.

Game Summary

North Florida jumped out to a early 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first on three straight singles and a sacrifice fly. Brandon Sinnery, in his first career start, managed to escape the inning from a great throw and relay, Urban to Cislo to Lorenz to get a runner taking too aggressive of a turn around third base. Chris Berset also had a throwing error in the inning trying to catch a runner stealing. His throw got away from him, but the runner would have scored anyways.

Sinnery was yanked after giving up a double in the 2nd inning with two outs. His final line was 1.2 innings pitched, 2 ERs on 6 hits with a strike out. That’s not what Maloney was looking for by any stretch. Hopefully the freshman picks it up when the midweek games pick up during the conference season.

Gerbe, who replaced Sinnery, pitched the next 1.1 innings, giving up a single, double, and sacrifice fly in the 3rd inning. He managed to only give up the single run but he was done for the night.

Michigan came in to the top of the 4 down 3-0. Ryan LaMarre lead off with an infield single to short stop; it was a slow roller that the defender had no shot at making a play with. With a full count, LaMarre went with the pitch, and Dufek grounded to the second baseman, who had no play on LaMarre. One out. McLouth then knocked a pitch to left field toward the line. LaMarre slipped rounding third, but probably wouldn’t have scored anyways. The throw went to the plate, allowing McLouth to advance to second. After an Urban fly out, the UNF pitching staff walked the next three batters forcing in two runs. With the bases still loaded, Kevin Cislo knocked a three run single to center. Cislo advanced to second on a passed ball then stole third, setting up a Toth RBI single. Michigan was up 6-3.

Michigan would tact 3 more runs on in the 5th inning. McLouth knocked his second home run of the season out to lead off the inning. After a Nick Urban single, Chris Berset knocked his own homdinger. That put Michigan up 9-3, to what one would think would be a safe lead.

Well not so fast my friend, North Florida added a run in the 6th from a pair of doubles. In the 7th, Michigan started with an error on Mike Dufek – its never a good sign when you give up an easy out to start an inning. Its worse when you walk the next batter, which we do. Wilson gets a ground ball that looks to be a double play, but we only manage to get the out at second. After giving up another single, Mike Wilson is pulled for Matt Miller. Miller gives up a walk and a single before striking out a batter. Enter Burgoon. After a walk and a hit by pitch, Burgoon finally gets Michigan out of the inning with a fly ball. It’s 9-8.

From here on out, it was pretty quiet. Michigan stranded a runner on third in the 8th. The Osprey just couldn’t get anything going against Burgoon down the stretch.

Well that was closer than it should have been.

Positives

• We didn’t get caught stealing in either of our two attempts
• Nick Urban extends his hitting streak to 5 games
• A win is a win
• This is the best start we’ve had to a season since 1991

Negatives

• Mike Wilson was Mike Wilson yeah of 2008, getting by in ugly ways
• Kenny Fellows ends his hitting streak at 4 games (still batting .412)
• Mike Dufek continued his struggles going 0/5 with 3 runners left on base
• That was way too close for comfort

Notable Players

• Chris Berset – 1/2 2 Rs, 2 RBIs, HR, 2 BBs
• Jake McLouth – 2/5 R, 2 RBIs, HR
• Kevin Cislo – 2/4 R, 3 RBIs, 2B
• Tyler Burgoon – 2.1 IP, H, BB, K

Next game: Friday @ 1pm vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee at the Jacksonville tournament. Preview will be out tonight.

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.

The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.

And…?

I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.

KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Much to the delight of Michigan fans (or maybe just bloggers), Smart Football has taken a fairly serious interest in Michigan since Rich Rodriguez has been the headman. Of course, part of the reason that the Wolverines get mentioned time and again is the fact that everything is not all sunshine and lollipops in Ann Arbor. Of course, Rodriguez has never taken a significant interest in the defensive performance of his teams, so surely the focus of Smart Football is on that side of the ball, no?

Not So Fast My Friend. It is in fact the offense that Chris has taken an interest in. More specifically, it is the idea that Michigan’s offense is not as diversified or systematic as perhaps it should be. This is not an old issue for Chris, who has brought up the point before that the passing game is not conceptually designed. In the more recent post, he goes a little more in-depth:

If Rodriguez wants his offense to be truly elite again, it’s the passing game that has to be the source of innovation. The run game tools are largely in place. There’s some room for improvement all around, but, last season with general inexperience — and without a legitimate running threat at quarterback — the lack of a viable downfield passing attack worked to help cripple the Rodriguez offense. But the fact that this aspect never developed over the course of the season was what really troubled me.

There’s much more to say on this topic, but for now suffice to say that Rodriguez is in danger of falling behind in the spread offense arms race in terms of sophistication. I discussed that phenomena with Purdue as a pass-first spread team over the last decade, but it’s of a slightly different order with Michigan.

Let’s break this down, shall we?

Passing Game
Smart Football sez:

But Rodriguez is a bright guy and his passing game originally derived from (though is a long way now) the old run and shoot. So you’d think he could remedy this. Yet with nothing but true freshman, that evolution will have to wait. The longer they wait, however, the farther behind they fall. The only hope is the increased athleticism masks these deficiencies.

Brian’s take on the matter is that Rodriguez hasn’t been forced to have a complex passing game, because with Pat White at the helm, a dominating run game and simple pass game will work just fine, thank you. I tend to agree with that assessment, and it better be true, because, as noted by Smart Football, the Wolverines are likely a year away from being able to add any complexity to the passing game.

With Pat White able to run the ball like he did, and probably not able to pass well enough to have a full pass game installed, it’s easy to see a potential reason the pass game stayed stagnant. Rodriguez’s recruiting has shown that he’s more interested in being able to throw the ball, however, and Tate Forcier may even be a better passer today than White, if not quite the runner:

Running Game
Smart Football:

Compare their offenses with Rodriguez’s: there’s not much difference from a run-game standpoint (though Meyer and OU mix up their sets a bit more and use more tight-ends now), but the passing games have seen a wide departure.

All due respect to Smart Football (and I may be wrong here, because he knows a hell of a lot more about the game than I do), but I’d be willing to say that even Rodriguez’s ground game, at least as implemented last year, is simpler than other spread teams, most notably Florida and Oregon. Again, part of that might have been players who were less-than-optimal for the spread offense, particularly at the quarterback position.

In the future, however, a diversification of the offense, perhaps including innovations like Meyer’s use of the H-back as a shovel option, or more counters, even the triple option/throwback pass that WVU used in the Meineke Bowl. Having better fits at the QB position, and not having to install just that base offense all offseason, will certainly help that in the future.

The Future

Perhaps Pat White got a bad rap as a passer, or maybe Bill Stewart actually knew what he was doing for WVU’s offense, thoughthe stats don’t agree – and that’s in a year where a senior Pat White was supposed to lead WVU to one of the most prolific offenses ever. However, with White looking more like a quarterback than a wideout or return man at the NFL (for better or for worse), it looks like Rodriguez’s schemes will be able to develop more complexity down the road.

As far as diversifying schemes goes, Chris points out that Oklahoma is an example of a spread team with a much more complex (and effective) passing game than Michigan’s. The use of the tight end is pointed out specifically. In fact, Rodriguez has reportedly planned to visit Oklahoma’s coaches in the offseason to trade information on the passing game, particularly the use of tight ends (of which Michigan has many who aren’t getting very much use).

In the future, I would love to see visits to Florida as well, for diversifying the running game a bit, along with figuring out other ways to use the tights ends effectively in the spread offense.

And, as pointed out by Smart Football, Oregon’s offense is one of the best-designed as well. I’ve pointed out in the past that I don’t think Michigan’s schemes are as creative as Oregon’s, and that’s one area where there is room for improvement. Perhaps in the future, Rodriguez can pick the brain of Chip Kelly.

And, most importantly for the future comes recruiting. Rodriguez has more resources available at Michigan than he ever did at West Virginia. White’s emergence as a possible NFL QB has to help recruiting as well. Even if he didn’t tweak his offense at all, if he continues to recruit like he has for the past two classes (or, more likely, improves it by having more success on the field), He could be able to usurp the quality of his offenses in Morgantown. With minor improvements to certain aspects of the offensive side of the ball, an outstanding offense is likely in the future of Michigan football.

Posted under Coaching, Football

Last week TheWolverine’s Josh Helmholdt had a recruiting chat on the Freep website, and I was aware of it but without anywhere to put it. So, I’ll dedicate a post to it, parsing out all the details I think are relevant.

Michigan definitely has a good shot at Inkster QB Devin Gardner. He dropped Ohio State this past week and that was the team he grew up following, so that increases Michigan’s chances that much more. Right now they have a better shot of landing Gardner than [Robert] Bolden. I personally like Gardner’s upside best. He truly does have some of the characteristics that made Terrelle Pryor the No. 1 recruit coming out of HS in the 2008 class. Gardner is also one of the QB prospects who Michigan has the best chance of landing.

I spoke with Austin [Gray] last night and Michigan is definitely high on his radar. Michigan State and Illinois look to be on the verge of offering and Indiana, Toledo, CMU and others already have. He is not listing an outright favorite right now

I was down in Florida with Marvin [Robinson] last week, and I still feel good Michigan is the team to beat. Several others in Florida agree with me on that.

William [Gholston] did favor MSU and really still does, but he has been adamant in the last couple weeks that he does not want to make an early commitment because he has not visited very many schools.

Gholston, Derrick Bryant and Darryl Baldwin from Solon, Ohio, [are the main targets] at defensive end. At DT, there is a kid in Georgia they are taking a look at, but all in all the talent nationally at that position is weak this year. Most of those offers will come later in the process.

[Regarding adding players to the 2009 class] They took a look at Carolina ATH Larry Raper, but have not offered. There are a few three and four-star guys still left uncommitted and if they can get in with one of them, then maybe they add one more. I keep in close contact with Raper, and he has not been offered yet by Michigan. As the days go on, there is less of a chance he does get that offer. The lack of available talent at the DT left in the 2009 class makes it unlikely they will add another one in the 2009 class.

I really believe [Nick Hill] will [end up in Michigan’s class] Joe, and likely even before Michigan’s summer camp. Hill is short (5-6), but he has such unique abilities and brings more to the table than most HS backs. I am really high on Hill and rank him as one of the top 5 players in the state for 2010.

Most of that falls in the range of “not at all surprising if you pay attention,” but it’s still worth noting when there’s good recruiting content for free.Michigan State has since offered Gray, and I’ll try to sleuth out who the Georgia DT is.

And while I’m catching up on old recruiting information that wasn’t likely to end up having a home, DocSat talked most successful recruiting schools over the past two classes, and it’s pretty encouraging for Michigan fans:

Bama has reeled in 40 players rated four or five-stars by Rivals over the last two Signing Days. By comparison, the only other schools with more than 30 are USC and Michigan, with 31.

The big difference for Michigan, of course, is the lack of 5-star guys. USC and Bama have 6 and 7, respectively, while the Wolverines have only 1. Hopefully, more success on the field will allow the coaching staff to continue and accelerate the super-positive recruiting momentum they’ve managed to gain despite a 3-9 year.

Posted under Coaching, Football, Recruiting

UPDATE (3:30pm):  Brandon Sinnery is starting for Michigan, he went 0.1 innings this weekend giving up a hit and a walk.  Also, I missed the 2000 game against the Osprey, who we are 0-1 against, so this is a vengeance game.  Oaks still isn’t listed on the depth chart, despite being listed in the weekly press release.  Seems odd.  Anyone with information, please leave a comment.

Baseball Stream – via Atlantic Sun IPTV, but it’s $5.99 pay per view.  Seems pricey, but at least its out there.

White Out the Wolverines – UNF is planning a White Out for the game tonight.  Make sure you fans going to the game wear something Maize as their colors are White and Navy.  You’ll stand out like a sore thumb, announcing the Michigan presence.  First pitch is 7pm, pitchers are still TBA.  I’m going to guess Mike Wilson for Michigan just because we haven’t seen him yet.

All BigEast/Big10 Challenge Players –Collegebaseball360.com released their attempt at forming a 18 person all tournament team from the weekend. Not an easy thing to do when picking from 18 teams playing 24 games.

Notables for Michigan:

• Starting Pitcher – Eric Katzman (Michigan, LHP, Jr.)
• Relief Pitcher – Tyler Burgoon (Michigan, RHP, So.)
• RF -Nick Urban (Michigan, Sr.)
• DH – Jake McLouth (Michigan, Fr.)

Notably absent? Kenny Fellows. The guy bats .541 with a run, 2 RBIs, and 2 assists in the outfield and he gets nothing. Those 4 times being caught stealing hurt him as he lost the chance to score a few more runs.

Big10 Player of the Week – Nick Urban took Big10 POTW honors this week. Tyler Burgoon and Eric Katzman get the shaft. I can understand Eric Jokisch (NU) getting the nod for the complete game, but Drew Rucinski (OSU)? Let us compare:

Burgoon, Tyler (2-0)

Rucinski, Drew (1-0, 1 Sv)

I mean the guy gave up a walk for crying out loud. And sacrifices? Burgoon scoffs at the sort. He just gets outs.

Poll Watching – Michigan slides up in most polls with the 4-0 start.

*In others receiving votes section

No love yet from Rivals, who generally is very reluctant about teams not from the SEC/Big12/Pac10/Big West/ACC. RPI hasn’t been posted anywhere I’ve seen yet (ncaa.com or boyd’s world), which isn’t surprising due to the minimal number of games so far. Coaches poll (USA Today) haven’t posted yet, it will be updated if/when it come in today

Posted under Baseball

Michigan has tendered an offer for GA QB/DB Blake Sims. He’s currently listed on the board as a DB, but may move over to QB, since this article certainly seems like he is being recruited for that position by Michigan.

LA QB Terrance Broadway has Alabama as his early favorite, and most schools pursuing him are in the South. He is more of a mobile pocket passer than a spread or running QB.

Tate Forcier’s high school teammate, CA RB Brennan Clay, has Michigan barely hnging in on his top 5. The Wolverines trail Oregon, USC, Cal, and Stanford. He would like to stay a little closer to home, but the Wolverines will get visits to change his mind.

FL Slot WR De’Joshua Johnson has set his decision date: September 27, the first anniversary of the death of Pahokee teammate Norman Griffith, who was also a good friend of Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne. Positive notes regarding Michigan’s shot:

Michigan already has three ex-Pahokee players on its roster, which certainly will appeal to Johnson, and the Blue Devils always have had a good relationship with West Virginia and its staff.

Obviously, West Virginia’s staff is in Ann Arbor now, and the Pahokee pipeline factor will hopefully play a role. Johnson is expected to play QB for Pahokee this year, but play slot in college.

SoFlaFootball tells us of a couple guys whose stock is on the rise, including a guy already on the recruiting board as well as one to add:

Michaelee Harris – WR Northwestern: The talented 6-foot, 170-pound receiver for the Bulls was a name many people knew, and he showed flashes of greatness on the field. The past couple weeks at the Badger Sports Passing Camp and the Under Armour Combine, he’s looked like man amongst boys.

Delvin Jones – DE/TE Palmetto: It’s hard to miss this 6-foot-6, 230-pound man child, but the agility he displayed during the Badger Sports Passing Camp was impressive. The defensive side of the ball is where Jones’ home will be in college, and this spring he must show a more consistent motor coming off the edge.

Keep these guys in mind, and it’s good to see a couple Michigan prospects’ stock on the rise.

FL WR Gideon Ajagbe sounds like he favors Florida, North Carolina, and everyone else, in that order. With Michigan’s WR situation, it seems unlikely that they start showing much interest in him.

Will Bryce Brown end up at Miami? I don’t really care, except it likely has a bearing on these guys:

The 2010 recruiting class is loaded with stud running backs and the top four, Eduardo Clements, Brandon Gainer, Giovanna Bernard [sic], and Jakhari Gore (Frank Gore’s cousin) have all listed Miami has their top choice.

Tha U probably won’t take all four guys regardless of Brown’s final decision, but they’ll certainly take even fewer if Brown ends up signing there.

Michigan is showing interest to NC OL Robert Crisp, which is nothing new or surprising, but it’s worth noting that he’s mentioning the Wolverines in his updates.

TX DT Jay Guy has been offered by Missouri (info in header). The Longhorns never offered, however, which means is recruitment looked outside the Big12. Of course, he has since committed to Cal, but I’m going to adjust VB policy and leave him on the board since he’s said he’ll take visits.

SC S DeAndre Hopkins has been named his state’s Mr. Basketball. He is also all-state for the third time. Hooray for ridiculously gifted youngsters.

FL S Marvin Robinson, who had previously asked Ohio State to stop recruiting him, now says he will visit the Buckeyes.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Basketball UFRs will be posted sometime this week. The reason for the delay is that I’m currently separated from my DVR. I should have it available to me before the Purdue game, but no guarantees. If there’s interest I can post the plus/minus data before then. It’s the part most people said in the CIL was more interesting, and I don’t need to re-watch the whole game to do them. Let me know in the comments.

Football offseason posts will continue, though they might be slightly more theory-oriented until spring pratice begins and there’s actual news to talk about. While on the topic of spring practice, I should have a bonanza of information up during that period, and it should be a fun time to be around here. I’ll spread news about some of those items as they get a bit more solidified.

I’m hopefully going to get the podcast up and running again, since we haven’t really made one since the end of football season. Possible topics include the end of basketball season, football and recruiting (obviously the bread and butter here at VB), or baseball. Let me know how much interest there is in each of these things (and a podcast in general).

Baseball coverage will continue to go strong with new contributor FormerlyAnonymous, who never got a proper introduction. Without further ado: FormerlyAnonymous is the newest member of VB, bringing the total to 3. He’ll bring the baseball coverage, making Varsity Blue the #1 site for Michigan Wolverines baseball coverage.

Recruiting update #1 for the week should be coming tomorrow. Sorry for the delay, but baseball season has left VB up to our ears in content, and I want to make sure every post get the attention that it deserves.

Thanks for bearing with us at a (surprisingly) busy time for the blog.

Posted under Blog News

Image from netitor.com

@North Florida
7pm – February 25, 2009
Harmon Stadium
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Yet to be released (see relevant links)
Probable Pitchers: Yet to be released
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0, no previous games

Overview

Michigan meets up with the North Florida Ospreys of the Atlantic Sun (A-Sun) conference in its first midweek game of the year. This will also be the first true road game (albeit trivial) for the Wolverines. North Florida finished last year 111th in RPI, one spot ahead of the Big10’s second place team (Purdue). This year, North Florida looks to make a fairly dramatic step backwards. The preseason coaches poll has them projected to finish 5th in the A-Sun (pdf). There has been speculation that with the conference expansion and the inability to make the NCAA tournament, there had been some motivation issues last year. North Florida made the jump from D2 to D1 last year, along with 4 other teams in the A-Sun, and they are noneligible for post season play. Its a stupid rule, but a rule nonetheless.

So Far This Season

The Osprey have started off the season the BankFirst Challenge hosted by Mississippi State. They faced both Northern Illinois and Mississippi State twice during the weekend. Against Northern Illinois, North Florida too both games by a score of 6-3 and 9-3. North Florida’s recaps of games are insanely confusing. Case in point:

Junior Preston Hale held his own well in the three-hole, going 2-for-3 and going 3-for-3 when leading off the inning.

UNF (1-0) had its vaunted First Coast Offense kicking on all cylinders, moving runners to the extra base on almost every chance, going 14-for-27 in advancement opportunities.

Against Mississippi State, UNF lost both games by scores of 7-1 and 9-7. Mississippi State is a lower tier SEC school, finishing 127th in RPI last year. The Osprey ended up batting .257 on the weekend against the week pitching lead primarily by centerfielder Brian Wilson (.444), left fielder Michael Smith (.400) and first basemen Ryan Puskar (.357). One the mound, the team wasn’t very pretty, the exception being starter John Atteo who threw a complete game (3 ERs).

Stars Offensive Starters

The Osprey return four starting players from last year’s starting lineup. They are lead by thrid baseman/left fielder Andrew Hannon and corner outfielder Preston Hale. Hannon was second on the team (highest returning) in batting average at .359 and RBIs at 44. Hannon was a non-factor this past weekend, only playing in one game, going 1/4 with a run and an RBI. Preston Hale batted .350 with 4 homeruns and 34 RBIs. He also lead the team with 16 doubles. Hale was also quiet this weekend, batting on .285 with 3 runs and an RBI.

Second basemen T.J. Thompson hit .317 last year, with 11 doubles, 3 triples, and a home run, but .317 isn’t that intimidating in college. The other returning starter, catcher Michael Gropper hit .317 on the year as well, but that was in limited starting time. Behind the plate, Gropper has a fairly good arm, but he still gave up about 70% of stolen base attempts. David Eldredge has started three of the games so far, but has been meh batting. He did get 4 RBIs in the first outing against Northern Illinois, but he followed that up with two games going 0/3.

Puskar has to be the big highlight so far for the Osprey. The first basemen already has two homeruns, scoring 5 runs and having 9 RBIs (all in the last two games). He and the two other outfielders, Wilson and Smith, have torn the cover off the ball. They’re both batting over .400 and have scored a combined 7 runs in 4 games.

Pitching Starters

I’m not sure who to expect to start this game. The Ospreys have five pitchers coming out of rehab for various surgeries. Any one of them could start against us. I wouldn’t expect any of the starters from the weekend. That limits it to 4 guys I know nothing about. Live with it.

Semi-Relevant Links

There may be some sort of video available from UNF’s website. It says “Watch” and it links you to the A-Sun’s IPTV. While I hope it’s on, I’ll be unavoidably detained by work. Hopefully it has on-demand video for replays. It looks like it might, I just haven’t had time to play with it.

I’ll link up to the MGoBlue audio and game tracker when those come available. The starting pitchers will probably be announced tomorrow as well, I just wanted to get this out before I head out for the day.

Posted under Baseball

Following Michigan’s official-aided choke job in Iowa City last night, the chances of this edition of the Michigan Wolverines are all but eliminated. Of course, if the Wolverines were to go on a run to end the season, taking at least 2 of the last 3 and one in the Big Ten Tournament, they would have a very legitimate argument. However, Last night’s game was considered a must-win because it was the only likely win left on the year. How did it happen?

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Posted under Basketball

To follow up the recap, I’ll be doing a weekly look at the team stats.  I won’t post any pitching graphs for until at least next week as many of our pitchers have only thrown once so far. It’s hard to see progressions from that.

A couple stats stood out to me this weekend. First off, our lead off and 2-hole hitters are both batting under .200. Kevin Cislo is batting .077 and is has an onbase percentage of .364. This isn’t going to cut it as we move forward into the season. Hopefully this was just Cislo either in a small slump, or just early season jitters. He really needs to step it up over the next week.

Anthony Toth is only batting .182 so far. Toth at least has the redeeming quality of a .582 on base percentage thats to 7 walks and 1 hit-by-pitch. Right now its Toth who is setting up the guys behind the order rather than Cislo. Toth is scoring every other time he reaches base, which is a great ratio.

Much of his run scoring is attributed to the great play thus far of LaMarre, McLouth, and Urban. LaMarre has acting more like a 2-hole hitter with the slow start by Cislo, which has been a great boost to the team. LaMarre is a good singles hitter who is setting the plate for the two bats behind him. McLouth has gotten the most credit so far with a .412 batting average and 4 RBIs. Urban is batting .471 and also has 4 RBIs. What’s more impressive is Nick’s .737 slugging percentage (bases/at-bat). He’s our only hitter who has really been getting extra base hits. I’m not sure yet if this is a good thing, as we are still winning, but you’d like to see a few more batters capable of getting a few more doubles here and there.

Dufek in the middle of those three is the team RBI leader with 5, but that golden sombrero day on Sunday sent his batting average down to .214. Berset had the same kind of weekend, batting only .100 with a run and an RBI. Lorenz has been a non-factor offensively, going 0-8 with a walk so far.

The bright spot of the bottom of the order – if not the whole order – has to be Kenny Fellows in the 9-hole. Fellows leads the team with a .500 batting average (7/14) and a .533 on base percentage. Being isolated from the rest of the hitters, Fellows really hasn’t had that much of a chance to get many RBIs or score many runs, but his average will either get him moved up in the lineup, or once Cislo comes around, he becomes a leadoff hitter at the bottom of the order.

Excel Graphs!

Here we can see the team batting average over the course of the season (each point is cumulated stats). Right now it doesn’t mean too much, but over the course of the season, I plan to track it pretty closely. The independent variable is the game number (USF =1, Purdue =2, etc). The blue line is indicative of the team batting average. You can see we hit better in the first two games, and we’ve been working our way back down in the second two. We’re not doing too badly as a team. Right now we’re hitting .288 as a team, which is a bit lower than I’d like. The average for the NCAA has been between .291 and .297 for the last ten years.

Also, another reason the average went down can be seen in the raised on base percentage (red line). We gained several more walks and hit by pitches in the last two games (18) compared to the first two games (9). These walks took away a hit or two from some of our better batters, leaving just our weaker batters accounting for more at bats.

Slugging percentage is the yellow line. Slugging percentage, as stated earlier, is bases per at-bat. Our first game had 3 doubles and a homerun driving up the total number of bases. Game three saw a double, a triple, and a homerun. For the most part we’ve been all about the singles (31 singles out of 38 hits). Like I said earlier, I’d like to see a little more pop, but as long as we stay consistently hitting singles, we will score runs.

A couple areas I’m worried about right now are base running and defense. Base running is the big problem area for me right now. We went up against four meh catchers this weekend but only went 4/12 on stolen base attempts, and we were picked off 3 times (should have been 4). I like the aggressive approach to the game, but we have to be smarter on how we go at it. Part of the reason Fellows isn’t scoring runs is because he is 0/4 on stolen bases. Each of our 1-4 hitters have also been caught stealing once (Cislo 2/3, Toth 1/2, LaMarre 1/2, Dufek 0/1).

Defense is a little bit less of a worry, but it did stick out in the Purdue game when we had three errors. The good news is that 2 of our 4 errors came from backup players rather than starters; Crank had one at catcher and Kalcyznski at third. The other two came from Toth and Lorenz. This will probably happen quite a bit as these two first year starters get used to the game. Lorenz is a real question mark at third in my mind. The kid was a high school short stop who has had limited play over the last year and is a true freshman. It may take him a full year to really get third base down.

Posted under Baseball