Stat Breakdown: Michigan v. Notre Dame

Michigan’s matchup against Notre Dame won’t be the first this year. The two CCHA squads met up in a home-and-“home” series back in January, with Michigan winning their home game 3-2 and the “away”game at the Palace 5-1. How did each team do this season before and since that series? Let’s take a look.

Category Before Notre Dame Notre Dame Since Notre Dame
Games 22 2 18
Against Tourney Teams 4 2 (obvs.) 9
% Against Tourney Teams .1818181818 1 .5
Goals 91 8 67
Goals/Game 4.136 4 3.722
Goals Against 39 3 42
GAA 1.773 .75 2.333
W-L-T 20-2-0 2-0-0 11-3-4

Michigan seemed to get a bit worse as the year progressed, though it is important to note that they played far more games against tournament teams in the second half of the year (including all games against MSU and Miami, against whom Michigan went 1-2-1 and 2-0-1, accounting for almost half of their non-wins on the season).

Notre Dame
Category Before Michigan Michigan Since Michigan Sans Condra
Games 26 2 18 4
Against Tourney Teams 9 2 (obvs.) 3 4
% Against Tourney Teams .346 1 .167 1
Goals 81 3 47 12
Goals/Game 3.12 1.5 2.611 3
Goals Against 50 8 35 8
GAA 1.923 4 1.944 2
W-L-T 19-6-1 0-2-0 9-6-3 2-2-0

Note: “Condra” is leading scorer Erik Condra. All of ND’s games in the final column are a subset of the “since Michigan” column, and Condra will miss the game tonight. Against Michigan, Condra had 3 shots, and a +/- of -1. All year, he was 15-23-48 in 41 games (.91 ppg). Notre Dame’s second leading scorer is Ryan Thang, 17-13-30 in 45 games (.73 ppg).

Notre Dame’s statistics went way down in the scoring department, and remained about constant in the goals against department. The offensive stats are even helped by a 7-goal goame against New Hampshire, which included 2 empty netters as the Wildcats tried to get back into the game (and as Michigan fans groaned that they’d rather be watching their game against Niagara than a blowout. Thanks, ESPNU!).

The majority of Notre Dame’s positive stats came in the beginning of the season, when they actually faced off against more teams that made the NCAA tournament. Since their better stats in the second half came from the New Hampshire game (offensively, at least), it may stand to reason that the Irish got worse offensively – even before they lost Condra.

My prediction is that neither Michigan’s 3-2 nailbiter over the Irish at Yost, nor their 5-1 shellacking in the Palace will repeat itself. Michigan will win this game by a 4-1 score that is aided by a late empty-netter.

For more Frozen Four hockey coverage, check out the Blog That Yost Built.

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5 Comments so far

  1. south875 says...

    we need a championship bad right now

    GO BLUE!

  2. Max says...

    I think your “% Against Tourney Teams” category may be off for Michigan:

    3-1 against tourney teams pre-Notre Dame:
    Wins over Boston College, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Loss to Minnesota.

    5-2-2 against tourney teams post-Notre Dame:
    Wins over Miami (2), Michigan State, Niagara, and Clarkson. Losses to Michigan State (2). Ties with Michigan State and Miami.

  3. Tim says...

    It’s percentage of total games in that period against teams that made the tournament, not win percentage against those teams.

  4. Max says...

    Got it, my bad.

  5. Anonymous says...

    you gotta be kidding me…2-0 ND before the first beer is gone!

    Come on Boys!

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