With Michigan’s basketball team attaining a new standard of relevance, it’s easy to see how Wolverines fans are already prognosticating a run to the NCAA tournament. Wins over UCLA and Duke are certainly a stepping stone towards achieving that goal, but there is still work to be done. Let’s see what Michigan has to do to make it into the Big Dance. Sagarin Ratings are little more than a rough draft at this point, but they give us some idea of the relative strengths of the teams.

Completed Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Result	Record
11-11-08	Michigan Tech	(DII)	77-55	1-0
11-12-08	Northeastern	151	76-56	2-0
11-20-08	(n) UCLA	20	55-52	3-0
11-21-08	(n) Duke	4	56-71	3-1
11-25-08	Norfolk State	321	83-49	4-1
11-29-08	Savannah State	230	66-64	5-1
12-3-08	@Maryland	39	70-75	5-2
12-6-08	Duke	4	81-73	6-2

The wins over UCLA and Duke were certainly not expected, and one could easily maintain that Michigan has done better through the first part of its schedule than could possibly have been expected. Salvaging the win over Savannah State was key. Had Michigan been able to top Maryland on the road (and, in all honesty, they should have), we’d be looking at a pretty highly-ranked team right now.

Remaining Non-conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-13-08	Eastern Michigan	261	W
12-20-08	Oakland	124	W
12-22-08	Florida Gulf Coast	317	W
12-29-08	NC Central	345	W
2-7-08	@ UConn	7	L

The remaining four games before the start of the conference schedule are all must-wins. Even with some good victories under their belt, the Wolverines would be devastated by a loss to any of these teams. The mid-year tilt with UConn looks like a loss this early in the year, but who knows where the teams will be come February?

Conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-31-08	Wisconsin	31	W
1-4-09	Illinois	25	T
1-7-09	@ Indiana	146	W
1-11-09	Iowa	65	W
1-14-09	@ Illinois	25	le=”border:1px solid rgb(0,0,102);”>L
1-17-09	Ohio State	5	L
1-20-09	@ Penn State	80	W
1-24-09	Northwestern	36	W
1-28-09	@ Ohio State	5	L
1-31-09	@ Purdue	33	L
2-5-09	Penn State	80	W
2-10-09	Michigan State	37	T
2-15-09	@ Northwestern	36	T
2-19-09	Minnesota	57	W
2-22-09	@ Iowa	65	T
2-26-09	Purdue	33	T
3-1-09	@ Wisconsin	31	L
3-7-09	@ Minnesota	57	T

Going into the conference schedule, it loks like Michigan will have a 10-2 record (and will and with a 10-3 non-conference record overall). The conference predictions are little more than guesses at this point, because it’s hard to tell this early in the season exactly how good all these teams are. Regardless, I project Michigan to be 17-8 (7-5) with 6 in-conference toss-ups. They would likely need to win at least two of those toss-ups, but preferably three to bring them to 20-11 (10-8). This would nearly assure them a bid to the NCAA tournament, especially if combined with a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney. 19-12 (9-9) would likely necessitate a couple wins in the Big Ten Tournament to warrant an NCAA bid.

Of course, Michigan will overachieve at times, and likely underachieve at others. The key is to minimize bad losses, and win most of the games that they should. Combined with the possibility for an upset or two, they should be able to make the tournament.

Another key will be closing the season strong. Unlike college football, finishing the regular season strong is an established criterion for selection to the NCAA tournament. With a likely loss and three tossups in the final four regular-season games, Michigan will have to find a way to win a couple of those tossups to warrant strong consideration.

Posted under Basketball
Tags: basketball, dancing, still not football

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