Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.
Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.
Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):
| Michigan v. Purdue: National Ranks | |||
| Category | Michigan | Purdue | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. Purdue eFG% D | 162 | 93 | P |
| Mich eFG% D v. Purdue eFG% | 165 | 3 | PP |
| Mich TO% v. Purdue Def TO% | 17 | 39 | M |
| Mich Def TO% v. Purdue TO% | 167 | 37 | PP |
| Mich OReb% v. Purdue DReb% | 269 | 291 | M |
| Mich DReb% v. Purdue OReb% | 164 | 128 | P |
| Mich FTR v. Purdue Opp FTR | 330 | 220 | PP |
| Mich Opp FTR v. Purdue FTR | 27 | 46 | M |
| Mich AdjO v. PurdueAdjD | 72 | 3 | P |
| Mich AdjD v. Purdue AdjO | 71 | 79 | – |
Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.
When Last We Met…
Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.
Since Last We Met…
Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.
The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.
And…?
I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.
KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.
Posted under Analysis, Basketball
Tags: preview, purdue