As always, highlighted players are returning for 2009. If something’s not right, let me know in the comments.

Illinois Offense

QBs

Juice Williams returns for his senior year, after an up-and-down career so far. His backup, Eddie McGee, is a junior, and got extensive playing time in 2006.

Illinois QBs Passing 2008
Name	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	Int	Yds/Att
Juice Williams	219	381	57.48	3173	22	16	8.33
Eddie McGee	4	9	44.44	59	0	0	6.56

Illinois QBs rushing 2008
Name	Rush	Yds	TD	Yds/Rush
Juice Williams	175	719	5	4.11
Eddie McGee	14	83	0	5.93

Analysis

Williams has progressively gotten better over the course of his career. He was awful as a freshman, and good (when healthy) as a sophomore. As a junior, however, his inconsistency probably cost the Illini a game or two – and ultimately a trip to a bowl game. McGee has a different skill set than Williams, and is often considered the slightly better runner.

RBs

Daniel Dufrene returns as the starter for his senior campaign, and he’ll again be splitting time with sophomore Jason Ford. Fellow sophomore Mikel LeShoure will also get a number of carries. Sophomore Zach Becker will start at fullback once again.

Illinois RBs Rushing 2008
Name	Rush	Yds	TD	Yds/Rush
Daniel Dufrene	117	663	0	5.67
Jason Ford	81	294	8	3.63
Mikel LeShoure	35	126	1	3.60
Troy Pollard	6	37	1	6.17

Illinois RBs Receiving 2008
Name	Rec	Yds	TD	Yds/Rec
Daniel Dufrene	30	271	2	9.03
Jason Ford	9	79	0	8.78
Mikel LeShoure	6	66	0	11.00
Troy Pollard	2	10	0	5.00
Zach Becker (FB)	1	2	1	2.00

Analysis

A year after losing Rashard Mendenhall, the Illini had a few players step up and platoon to fill the void. They didn’t match his production (6.4 ypc!), but they did move the ball on the ground. The mobile quarterback certainly helps open up running lanes for RBs, and the group should continue to progress. Aside from Dufrene, this was a very young unit, so the other players may have improved dramatically.

Receivers

Junior Arrelious Benn. Enough said. Oh, also enormous senior Jeff Cumberland, and talented senior TE Michael Hoomanawanui. Replacing Will Judson will be something of a task, but the Illini have a number of younger players ready to step up.

Illinois Receivers Receiving 2008
Name	Rec	Yds	TD	Yds/Rec
Arrelious Benn	67	1055	3	15.75
Will Judson	21	401	2	19.10
Jeff Cumberland	20	352	4	17.60
Michael Hoomanawanui (TE)	25	312	2	12.48
AJ Jenkins	11	287	3	26.09
Fred Sykes	12	156	1	13.00
Chris Duvalt	10	156	4	15.60
Hubie Graham (TE)	2	25	0	12.50
Alex Reavy	1	10	0	10.00
Chris James	1	1	0	1.00

Illinois Receivers Rushing 2008
Name	Rec	Yds	TD	Yds/Rush
Arrelious Benn	23	101	2	4.39
Jeff Cumberland	1	23	0	23.00
Chris Duvalt	1	-5	0	-5.00

Analysis

The Illinois receiving corps could really start and end will Arrelious Benn. He’s so physically talented that it’s unfair. However, he only ended up catching 3 touchdown passes last year, which is at least partially due to Juice’s inconsistency. Hoomanawanui came in for some praise by television crews last year, and Cumberland is an enormous target who insists on remaining at wideout, despite his 6-5, 255-lb stature.

Offensive Line

Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald depart from the front lines at Illinois, and left tackle Fulton was drafted by the NFL. The aptly-named Eric Block will return for his fifth year, and he’ll man the center position. True sophomore Jeff Allen started at right tackle for most of last year, which is rather impressive if you ask me. Fellow sophomore Corey Allen also played last year as a true freshman, and he’s expected to be the starting left tackle. True senior Jon Asamoah and redshirt junior Randall Hunt will man the guard positions.

Analysis

Fulton was good enough to get drafted, so losing him will hurt, especially replacing him with a relatively-inexperienced Corey Allen. The Illini have a really young OL, as their bookends will both be true sophomores. The line should take a slight step back from last year, but the results might not show on the field if Juice’s consistency can improve.

Offensive Analysis

The key to this offense is Juice Williams. If he can perform like the guy who ripped Michigan’s defense to shreds last year, the Illini should be able to put astronomical totals on many teams. If he plays like the guy who led his team to an embarrassing defeat to Western Michigan in Ford Field, the offense might be hurting. Arrelious Benn’s health could be important as well. He was outstanding as a freshman despite a chronic shoulder injury, and was perhaps even better last year, except for the ball actually getting to him most of the time. The run game is option-based, so the young offensive line won’t be as much of a liability as it would be for some teams, but it could still hold the offense back a bit. Still with all the playmakers on this team, if they can perform to expectations, it should be a pretty good year.

Illinois Defense

Defensive Line

Will Davis and Derek Walker depart from the defensive end positions, and Davis was god enough to earn a spot in the 6th round of the NFL draft. Those two will likely be replaced by redshirt junior Clay Nurse and redshirt senior Doug Pilcher. At tackle, David Lindquist has graduated, but true junior Josh Brent will still be manning the middle. He’ll likely be joined by true sophomore Corey Liuget in the starting lineup.

Illinois Defensive Line 2008
Name	Tack	TFL	Sack	Fum	Int
David Lindquist	44	7.5	4	0	0
Will Davis	36	7	3.5	0	0
Josh Brent	34	8.5	1.5	0	0
Derek Walker	33	7	6	1	1
Corey Liuget	26	5	1.5	1	0
Doug Pilcher	21	6	2.5	0	0
Clay Nurse	9	1	1	0	0
Antonio James	5	1	1	0	0
Jerry Brown	4	0.5	0	0	0

Analysis

This is a position group that lost 3 of its 4 starters, one of whom was good enough to be selected in the NFL draft, and another of whom was just outside that range. A step back can be expected. The new defensive ends are not likely to be nearly as explosive as at least Davis. At tackle, David Lindquist had a bunch of tackles (rare for an interior lineman), so replacing his production might be something of a task. However, Liuget had good guru approval, and performed well in his playing time last year, so he might be able to perform comparably.

Linebackers

Brit Miller, best known for playing alongside the American Flag Tie Guy (J Leman) two years ago, has departed, and takes with him by far the most tackles on Illinois’s team. Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson also leave the corps, giving the Illini only one experienced player: Martez Wilson. Sophomore Russell Ellington and redshirt junior Dustin Jefferson were next on the team in tackles, but they were so far behind the top 4 players that their experience doesn’t give them a huge advantage over any of the other players on the roster.

Illinois Linebackers 2008
Name	Tack	TFL	Sack	Fum	Int
Brit Miller	132	15.5	6	1	1
Martez Wilson	73	5.5	3	0	0
Rodney Pittman	53	3.5	1	0	0
Sam Carson III	36	3	0	0	0
Russell Ellington	8	0	0	0	0
Dustin Jefferson	5	0	0	0	0
Ian Thomas	4	0	0	0	0
Conor Gillen	3	0	0	0	0
Tad Keely	2	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Wilson was stabbed in a bar over the winter, so his conditioning probably didn’t advance as much as he wanted over the off-season. That said, he already started out as a very physically-gifted player, so it shouldn’t be a huge hindrance. The knock on him has been undisciplined play, so as the new leader of the linebacking corps, he’s going to have to be able to bring some consistency to the second level. The rest of the players are rather inexperienced, so Wilson might need to have an All-Big Ten type of year for the Illini to succeed, unless someone is able to step up and surprise.

Defensive Backs

Corner Vontae Davis departed early for the NFL, and replacing a first-rounder at corner is going to be a tough task for the Illinois defense. Redshirt junior safety Travon Bellamy will probably be the new leader of the Illinois defense, along with true senior Donsay Hardeman, who finished with the third most tackles in the secondary, despite missing 4 full games. Junior Bo Flowers will provide depth there. At corner, Dere Hicks will become the #1 guy as a true senior. The other corner spot us up for grabs, as there are almost no experienced players on the roster. I would assume sophomore Tavon Wilson is the guy there.

Illinois Defensive Backs 2008
Name	Tack	TFL	Sack	Int	Fum
Vontae Davis	78	7	0	2	0
Travon Bellamy	53	0	0	0	0
Donsay Hardeman	44	0.5	0	1	0
Dere Hicks	43	4	1	1	1
Bo Flowers	23	1	0	0	1
Nate Bussey	21	0	0	0	0
Garrett Edwards	20	0	0	0	0
Tavon Wilson	11	0.5	0	0	0
Supo Sanni	9	0	0	0	0
Antonio Gully	3	0	0	0	0
Cody Stunkard	3	0	0	0	0
Miami Thomas	3	0	0	0	0

Analysis

If the Illini can stay healthy, they should have a pretty good and experienced secondary, outside of the #2 corner. However, that could be an important position, as even with Vontae Davis last year the secondary was still subpar. Another year of experience should help, but the corner situation might be bordering on dire, unless one of the experienced safeties has the agility to play on the line of scrimmage.

Defensive Analysis

The Illini lost a lot on defense, and their two best players were both enough to make the NFL draft. The front seven was fairly decimated, and the secondary lost the player who was holding the whole thing together. Without a good pass rush, and without Vontae, the passing game could be a really serious achilles heel for this team. The linebacker situation also means it might not be particularly difficult to run on them, either, considering with seniors at linebacker and defensive line they were still well below average.

Special Teams

Placekicker Matt Eller was a redshirt freshman last year, and returns for another year booting field goals. Punter Anthony Santella will be a redshirt junior.

Illinois Kicking 2008
Name	XPM	XPA	%	FGM	FGA	%	Long
Matt Eller	39	41	95.12	15	20	75.00	51

Illinois Punting 2008
Name	Punt	Yds	Avg
Anthony Santella	53	2088	39.40
Matt Eller	1	35	35.00

Analysis

Eller and Santella were both average last year, though Santella was probably a little less good, considering he was 8th in the Big Ten in punting. Eller actually seemed to be better on long attempts, and rounded into form over the course of the year. With another year of experience (and likely a better offense), both specialists could be in line to have better years.

Overall Analysis

Consistency is the name of the game with this Illinois team. If Juice can stay consistent, the offense will be capable of putting up some big numbers. On defense, they are likely to really struggle. The offense will have to carry this team, and give the defense some help. Regardless of any improvement in yardage totals or efficiency, the Illini could see an improvement in record, considering they had an unlucky string of games that they probably had no business losing (WMU, Minnesota, Northwestern).

Posted under Analysis, Football

Game was washed out this afternoon (Friday).  They’re playing a double header beginning at noon eastern (11am in Evanston).  Illinois got the job done against Purdue as well, keeping Michigan’s BigTen Tournament hopes alive for another day.  We have to sweep and Purdue must lose in order for Michigan to advance.

And as commenter JJ pointed out, Fetter is looking tired.  I picked up on this last week.  His pitch counts have been VERY high compared to his last few seasons.  Instead of 7 inning complete games at best, he’s been throwing into the 8th and 9th innings a lot this season.  I think the fatigue is catching up.  Hopefully he can recover fully for next week (that is, if tomorrow goes well).

Posted under Baseball

With the 2009 football season looming a mere 4+ months away, it’s as good a time as any to take a first look at Michigan’s upcoming schedule, and determine whether the teams the Wolverines will face this year should get better or worse (or remain the same) from last year to this. I also reserve the right to be completely wrong.

Western Michigan
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 MAC)
Key losses: S Louis Delmas, LB Austin Pritchard, WR Jamarko Simmons
Key returning players: QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West
Projection: Same. Sure, teams lose players to the NFL every year, but it’s not fair to the Broncos (nor would it be to basically any MAC team) to assume they’ll be able to replace a second-round pick in the secondary. However, the offense should really continue trucking behind the QB play of Tim Hiller. The Broncos should be about the same as they were last year, though they’ll rely even more heavily on a high-flying offense to make up for a much weaker defense.

Notre Dame
2008 Record: 7-6 (0-1 Syracuse)
Key losses: WR David Grimes, S David Bruton
Key returning players: QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Armando Allen, WR Golden Tate
Projection: Up. Based on roster composition alone, the Irish should be pretty rockin’ this year. One impoortant caveat: you could say that about the last two years as well, and they were somewhere between terrible and mediocre over each of the previous two seasons. Is Charlie Weis just one big, fat FAIL, or will he start to get the talent he has assembled to perform? There’s no excuse (lol book title/disingenuous motto) for the Irish to not beat up on most of their schedule this year.

Eastern Michigan
2008 Record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)
Key losses: RB Terrence Blevins, WR Tyler Jones, LB Daniel Holtzclaw, S Jacob Wyatt
Key returning players: QB Andy Schmitt, WR Jacory Stone, LB Andre Hatchett
Projection: Up. The Eagles return some key pieces, though they also lose some important ones, the upgrade at the head coaching position appears to be a substantial one. Eastern was terrible last year, save the upset of Central Michigan in their final game of the year, and even anything approaching competency would be a leap in the right direction.

Indiana
2008 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Marcus Thigpen
Key returning players: QB Ben Chappell, QB/WR/? Kellen Lewis, WR/CB Ray Fisher
Projection: Same. You can tell the Indiana coaching staff is really grasping at straws in an effort to not get fired at the end of this year. They’re moving key players around (2nd-leading receiver Ray Fisher to corner, best offensive weapon Kellen Lewis all over the field, etc.), and completely revamping their schemes (reports say they’ve almost exclusively worked out of the pistol this spring). If it doesn’t work, Bill Lynch and co. are probably going to get the axe.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)
Key losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, S Otis Wiley
Key returning players: LB Greg Jones, WR Mark Dell
Projection: Down. The Spartans were beneficiaries of a bad Big Ten and some good luck last year. They were more like a 7-6 team than the 9-4 that they actually went. Take away 3 of their 4 most important players (the fourth is Jones), and they should be worse. Take away that luck, and they’re just a team. Adam Rittenberg will still predict that they win the National Championship.

Iowa
2008 Record: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Shonn Greene, DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul,
Key returning players: WR Andy Brodell, LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, QB Ricky Stanzi
Projection: Same. The Hawkeyes lose arguably their three most important players in Greene (no, Rittenberg, you can’t just baselessly say “I think Jewel Hampton will be at least as good as they guy who won the Doak Walker Award”) and the defensive tackles. However, they upgrade slightly at almost every other position, and assuming they can stay healthier than they have in the past couple years, they should be about as good as they were in ’08. Of course last year, they were something of an anti-MSU, and lost a couple games they shouldn’t have. The Hawkeyes will be about the same quality of team, but the record may improve.

Delaware State
2008 Record: 5-6 (5-3 MEAC)
Key losses: QB Vashon Winton, RBs Chris Strother and Kareem Jones, LB Kevin Conner
Key returning players: DB Avery Grant, WR Laronne Moore
Projection: Down, down down. For a team that wasn’t even good to begin with, losing 3 of your top 5 tacklers, your 4-year starter at QB, and your top 3 running backs can be little other than a recipe for disaster. Delaware State is a true 1-AA cupcake, and will be even worse this year than they were in 2008.

Penn State
2008 Record: 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: WRs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, 3 offensive linemen
Key returning players: QB Daryll Clark, RBs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, LB Sean Lee
Projection: Down. The Spread HD worked in 2008 because Clark was on-point all year, and the Lions had the skill position talent on the outside to force defenses to spread the whole field. With Clark tailing off in the last few games (albeit due to injury, perhaps), and the OL and wideouts gone, PSU won’t be the offensive force that they were last year. Defensively, the return of Sean Lee should help in the middle. However, the top 3 defensive ends left, and #4 is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Illinois
2008 Record: 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: LB Brit Miller, CB Vontae Davis, WR Will Judson
Key returning players: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, LB Martez Wilson
Projection: Same. Like Iowa, the record might improve, but the team will be about as good in 2009. The offense should really click with a senior Juice Williams and junior Arrelious Benn, though you could have said the same last year (and the Illini were awesome at times, just horrifically inconsistent). The defense should take major steps back with its best two players, LB Brit Miller and Vontae Davis, gone and the third best player, LB Martez Wilson, doing things like getting stabbed in a bar during the offseason.

Purdue
2008 Record: 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten)
Key losses: QBs Curtis Painter and Justin Siller, RB Kory Sheets, WRs Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy, LB Anthony Heygood, S Torri Williams
Key returning players: S Joe Holland, QB Joey Elliott
Projection: Down. Purdue sucked last year, and nearly all of their best players are leaving town because their eligibility has expired (everyone but Siller) or because they cheat on exams (Siller). Couple all that with a transition to a new offensive scheme and a plan to rely on several true freshmen despite their lack of guru approval, and Danny Hope’s first year in West Lafayette may be a difficult one. There could be a coaching upgrade as Wilford Brimley had been mailing it in the past couple years, but there is basically no talent for the Boilers to work with.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB PJ Hill, TEs Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Key returning players: QB Dustin Sherer, WRs David Gilreath and Nick Toon, LB Jaevery McFadden
Projection: Up. The Badgers were a team that lost plenty of games they shouldn’t have, and the important question for tham is whether that was bad luck or the horrifically bad coaching ability of Bret Bielema. The early appearances are a bit of both, so the Badgers should be a bit better, but not by leaps and bounds. Hill wasn’t even Wisconsin’s best RB for much of the year, and Sherer was the better QB, despite Allan Evridge starting the year under center. Simply getting the right pieces the ball more often should help. I think Bielema has a definite ceiling, especially with players he has recruited and coached for four year.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 10-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Beanie Wells, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline
Key returning players: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, CB Chimdi Chekwa
Projection: Down. The Buckeyes really should have been awesome last year, and might have been if Terrelle Pryor had started the whole year, and not been a true freshman. Alas, this was the case, and OSU’s last best chance at a national title for the next couple years leaves town with Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Regardless, the Buckeyes are never going to fall completely off the map as long as Jim Tressel is the coach, so there’s a definite floor for their team. either way, they’ll take a significant step back in 2009.

Posted under Analysis, Football

This weekend saw Michigan face Illinois at the Fish.  Michigan managed to win only the first game by the grace of the all powerful Chris Fetter… and some guys on offense.  Also, big thanks to all the fans who showed up this weekend.  The spring game overflowed to the baseball field, getting a total of 3871 for the three games this weekend.  As Kartje at the Daily described it on Saturday:

The crowd is nuts here thanks to Spring Game overflow.  You’d think Tate Forcier was making a special appearance in the 7th inning stretch.

And on to the recap.

Game 1

Box Score													R	H	E
Illinois	0	0	0		2	0	0		0	0	0		2	6	1
Michigan	0	2	0		0	0	0		1	1	x		4	9	0

W – Chris Fetter (5-1)   L – Haig (3-2)   Sv – None

BTN Coverage (hopefully embedding this works):

If the embed doesn’t work for you, visit the BTN.com highlight here.  I didn’t catch the game, but just judging by the post game wrap up, I doubt I could have put up with either of these guys calling a game.  People thing Joe Morgan is bad…

The story of this game was Chris Fetter. In his second complete game of the year, Chris struck out 13 batters (about half the outs in the game), including 7 hitters that went down looking. Fetter was economical with most hitters, only throwing 136 pitches (the exact same number as his last complete game against Penn State). He only allowed 6 hits and two walks. Great game overall. Something I’m interested to keep an eye on is how these back to back complete games affect his pitching down the stretch. Fetter has been quoted by the WBCN crew during the IPFW series that he is shooting for only 120 pitches per game. I can’t blame Maloney for letting the kid get his complete game wins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Fetter left some games sooner just to protect his arm.

On offense, we scraped to get the runs we did. In the second inning, we managed to avoid a fielder’s choice by utilizing the hit and run, we (unofficially) sacrifice flied a runner from second to third, and got the timely singles to score 2 runs. For the go ahead run in the 7th, we used the sacrifice fly to plate the run.

The positive on offense was sticking to single digit strikeouts and getting baserunners on every inning. The bad was we left runners on base every inning as well, including 4 in scoring position. If there ever was an inning to describe Michigan’s season it has to be the 6th:

Michigan 6th – Toth doubled down the lf line (0-0). Lorenz out at first 1b to 2b, SAC, bunt (0-0); Toth advanced to third. Kalczynski struck out swinging (0-2 FFS). Cislo struck out swinging (2-2 KBBSS). 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB.

We get pressure on the other teams early then fade down the stretch. The metaphor works for the season as well. We come out with power, but the power fades as we go along. Sigh…

Notable Stars

• Chris Fetter – CG, W, 6 H, 13 K, 2 BB, 2 ER
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 2 R, 3B, 2B
• Ryan LaMarre – 0/0 R, 4 BB (in 4 at bats, he saw 26 pitches, impressive)
• Fan Attendance: 1056… best this year.

Notable Goats

• This was solid game… everyone gets off the hook

Other Notes

• Other Chris’s daughter caught a fly ball in the Michigan win, quoted to have said this: “This is one of the best days of my life! And if Michigan wins, it will move into the top ten.”
• CollegeBaseballToday.com – Chris gets an Honorable Mention in the Big10 Pitchers segment…”When Chris Fetter is on the mound, Michigan becomes one of the best teams in the nation. But beyond him?…”
• The Daily – Liveblog Redacted. If I find where it went I’ll relink it here. Update: now linked.
• SID Release – Coach Maloney Moves Toth up to 7th in the order: “He was huge for us today. I moved him up in the order to try to keep what we consider our seven best hitters in a row, and he really came through big for us tonight.” This appears to be an attempt to limit the LOB in the middle of the order.

Game 2

Box Score													R	H	E
Illinois	0	0	0		3	2	5		0	0	0		10	9	3
Michigan	3	0	1		2	0	0		1	0	0		8	13	2

W – Zerrusen (2-0) L – Kolby Wood (0-1) Sv – Strack (1)

So remember when I said this:

Katzman has done well lately, but that just means he’s due for a less than stellar start as well.

That happened. While Katzman didn’t have a horrible start, he certainly didn’t have the same stuff he’d had the last two weeks. He worked into a little trouble in the first with back to back singles to open the frame, but managed to eek his way out. He wasn’t so lucky in the fourth inning. Katzman loaded the bases to start the inning (sac bunt in the middle of that). He then hit a batter to force in a run, followed by a 2 RBI single from Bonadonna.

Kolby Wood would enter in relief of Katzman and get a quick out to stop the bleeding. In Wood’s first full inning of work, things started off shaky with a fielding error by Anthony Toth. With two outs and a runner on third (the one to reach on the error), Wood gave up a two run home run (both runs unearned). The next inning started similarly, but this time with a throwing error by John Lorenz. Wood then gave up back to back hits, scoring a pair of runs (one unearned). Miller would relieve him but struggled as well giving up a walk, back-to-back doubles, and a single before striking out the next two batters in the inning. This would put the Illini up 10-6, and their offense went into cruise control to the finish.

The offense was surprisingly good in this game, knocking out the Big10’s top pitcher after just one inning. Ben Reeser, the Illinois starter managed just 1 inning with 3 hits, 3 runs, and a walk. Coley Crank was the only starter without a hit, but 5 starters (Cislo, Fellows, LaMarre, Oaks, Toth) had two a piece.

If you were to tell me Michigan was going to score 8 runs on 13 hits while only stranding 8 and striking out 7 times, I’d feel pretty good about that game. Unfortunately the pitching didn’t hold us in the game. The Illini hit the big inning in the 6th; it was too much to recover from.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 2/3 3 RBI, 2 R, 2 SACF, 2B
• Kevin Cislo – 2/3 2 R, 2 BB, SB, 2B
• Alan Oaks – 2/5 Solo-HR
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 BB
• Kenny Fellows – 2/4 R, 2B, SACB
• Mike Dufek – 1/5 2B (off the top of the Brick Monster to steal a HR)
• Attendance – Woo Spring Game crowd: 1942!
• Coach Maloney – Ejected (see the note below)

Notable Goats

• Toth & Lorenz – The errors to lead off the 5th and 6th innings lead to 3 unearned runs… more than the difference in the game.

Other Notes

• Maloney was ejected in the 6th inning arguing on behalf of Kevin Cislo. There was a close safe call made at second base and the crowd didn’t like it, Cislo didn’t like it, Maloney didn’t like it. He made his way out to the umpire (I believe it was veteran umpire Bruce Doane) to make his case. According to Daily staff writer Ryan Kartje, he went “all “Lou Piniella” on the ump to waves of support from the crowd. No dirt kicking as of yet. But regardless, Maloney gets tossed from the game and the crowd loves it.” I like the move by Maloney to go for the ejection. Sometimes it can light a fire under the team. It didn’t work this time, but hey, sometimes you’ve just got to do that as a manager.
• Daily Live Blog – as linked above in the Maloney note, Kartje live blogged the game. I really like this from the Daily. It definitely supplements the box scores really well.

Game 3

Box Score													R	H	E
Illinois	0	3	0		2	0	0		1	4	1		11	19	0
Michigan	2	0	1		0	2	0		0	0	0		5	10	2

W – Roberts, B (3-0) L – Alan Oaks (0-1) Sv – Martin (2).

Keeping along with our recent Sunday streak, our pitching staff struggled most of the game. This game was back and forth as the scoreboard above shows, but the key came when Alan Oaks out-stayed his welcome. After already throwing 53 pitches, a career high, he trotted out to an eighth inning he wouldn’t make it out of; he gave up 3 singles and a double to start what would be a four run inning for the Illini.

In defense of Oaks, he pitched very well in the 4 innings leading up to this point, giving up just one unearned run in 4 innings of relief of Travis Smith. Speaking of Smith, his start was disappointing as well. He gave up the first 5 runs (4 earned) to the Illini in just over 3 innings of work. We really need someone to step up and earn this starting spot, whether it be Smith, Wilson, Sinnery, Vangheluwe, Wood, or someone new.

Speaking of Wilson and Sinnery, they closed the game out fairly well, throwing 2 innings while giving up only one unearned run.

Offense was top heavy – top of the lineup that is. Fellows, LaMarre, and Dufek each had a pair of hits including a homer and double by Dufek – the only extra base hits of the game. Dufek’s two hits drove in all four Wolverine RBIs in the game, and his grounded into double play also drove. Toth, Lorenz, and Kalczynski each added a hit a piece from the bottom of the lineup, but lead to no runs scored or driven in.

Notable Stars

• Mike Dufek – 2/4 4 RBI, R, HR, 2B
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/3 2 R
• Kenny Fellows – 2/3 R, BB
• Attendance – 873

Notable Goats

• Alan Oaks (at bat) – 0/4 3 Ks, 1 LOB
• DH/PH (Crank, Urban, & Kittle) – 0/4 K
• Fellows & Lorenz – Errors leading to a pair of unearned runs

Other Notes

• The Daily – Relief pitching dooms M. I respectfully disagree. Timely hitting mixed in with a lack of consistency from the bullpen and the defense behind them. There were quite a few errors to start innings for bullpen pitchers.
• The Daily – Live Blog Game 3 is more good stuff. I love how the only comment is by “S. Toth” appealing Kartje’s notion that the team doesn’t turn too many double plays. While we may not be the Big10 leaders, we do turn our fair share of them (.82 per game as of 4/5/09)
• Daily Illini – Haig’s start was disappointing as Fetter was great, but the Illini won the weekend series
• Illinois Baseball Report – Dittman carries Illini this weekend

Wrap Up

While losing 2 of 3 is never a great thing, I don’t think this was too bad of a weekend for the team. Illinois is one of the better teams in the conference this season, especially in the pitching department. There were a few lapses though, especially on defense. After the great effort in game one, we had two errors in each of the last two games leading to four unearned runs. We’ve got to cut those down.

After this weekend’s action, Michigan is now 7th (tied with PSU, but Nittany Lions have the tie breaker) in the Big10 at 4-4. Only the top 6 teams make the BTT, so we’ve got some ground to make up. That starts this weekend with Michigan State. We play in East Lansing at their new ball park on Friday and Sunday, but play the middle game of the series at the Fish. All indications are that Michigan should sweep the Spartans, but they have a pitcher in Nolan Moody who poses quite a challenge.

As for the mid week, we face Toledo on Tuesday and have the rubber match with EMU in Ann Arbor on Wednesday. Toledo could be a challenge, but I don’t expect much from their mid week starter. As for EMU, we’ve already seen what they can do. I can’t see our guys taking the same “oh, its just EMU” mindset as last time.embed>

Posted under Baseball

The Lacrosse team had yet another undefeated weekend, but I only managed to catch one of the games, so I’ll only report on that one.

Western Michigan
On a cold an blustery night at Vicksburg High School (where Western plays their home games), the Wolverines allowed the Broncos to get on board first, but that was the only time they really threatened the entire night, as Michigan stormed back, eventually taking the 15-4 victory. With fellow goalkeeper Andrew Fowler on the sidelines with a walking boot and crutches, sophomore Mark Stone played the whole game in net, coming up huge a few times for Michigan. The margin of victory could have been much bigger for the Wolverines had the Bronco goalkeeper, Patrick Riley, not made a few spectacular saves of his own. Trevor Yealy led the Wolverines yet again, as he finished his hat trick in the first quarter, and tacked on one more later in the game. Riley Kearns and Kevin Zorovich each put 2 on the board, and sophomore LSM Matt Asperheim was able to notch his second goal of the year as well. Late in the game, the Wolverines played for possession, content to not run up the score (their coach must be less of a dick than Colorado State’s, as JP seemed eager to score as many as possible on the Rams). The fourth quarter passed by scorelessly, and several Michigan bench players got significant playing time. This leads me to the matter of the Western fans, who were… well, they’re what I would expect Western Michigan fans to be. They were actually complaining at the end of the game about Michigan not running up the score, because they wanted to see the teams “just play lacrosse.” Of course, they couldn’t manage to say this without lacing the sentence with profanity. Late in the third quarter, Michigan midfielder Michael Bartomioli was victimized by a very solid (clean) hit right near midfield. He was knocked flat on the ground, but immediately got back up and continued playing. When he came off the field about three minutes later, the Bronco fans were so classy as to yell that he was coming off the field because he couldn’t handle the physical play (which, what? he kept playing after the hit), and call him a “f****** p****.” I assume it was all Barto could do to not turn around and point to the scoreboard in retaliation. You stay classy, Kalamazoo.

Illinois
As this game took place in Lake Forest, Illinois, and I was otherwise occupied with attending football’s spring game, I didn’t manage to catch the 12-5 victory over the #16 Illini. From the sounds of it, the first half was a little contentious, but then the Wolverines were able to pull away in the third quarter.

Up Next
The Wolverines have a weekend off (perhaps much-needed, considering all the players who seem to be banged up), before they face Michigan State April 25th in the Great Lakes Lacrosse Classic in Birmingham at Seaholm High School. The following week, it’s the CCLA conference tournament at Saline High School.

Posted under Other Sports

vs. Illinois

from uiuc.edu

7:05pm Friday, 3:05pm Saturday, 1;05pm Sunday
Ray Fisher Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI

Media Game 1: Live Stats and Audio,TV: BTN
Probable Starters Game 1: Chris Fetter (3-1) vs Haig (3-1)
Media Game 2: Live Stats and Audio
Probable Starters Game 2: Eric Katzman (4-2) vs Reeser (3-1)
Media Game 3: Live Stats and Audio
Probable Starters Game 3: TBA vs Roberts (2-0)
Series: Michigan leads 123-91-3
Last Meeting: Michigan UM won last 5
Last Michigan Loss: Recap – 3-6, (May 2007 @ UM)

Penn State Baseball Blog:  Illinois Baseball Report

Overview

I’m going to skip much of the Illinois player preview, for information, check out the Q&A with Illinois Baseball Report from Thursday.  As for the team, the Illini comes into Ann Arbor with a 19-7 record, 4-2 in Big10 (1st place).  Those Big10 games came in a sweep of Michigan State and only taking 1 of 2 against Indiana.  The high point of the Illini season has to be the series at LSU.  LSU was ranked #1 going into the weekend, but the Illinois pitching staff managed to take 2 of 3 games, placing Illinois right on the edge of many top 25 lists.  Right now they site at #85 in pseudo RPI.

Overlooking their NCAA stat rankings (4/5/09), the Illini rank 73 in batting average (.313), 55 in ERA (4.43), 52 in hits allowed per 9 innings (9.27), 42 in fielding percentage (.970), and 20 in double plays turned per game (1.16).  Individually, Bonadonna ranks 51 in steals, Wickoff is the 10th hardest man to strike out (Josh par is 67th), Reeser, Strack, & Martin all are in the top 100 ERAs in D1.

And oh yeah, we’re on TV tonight.  Finally.

The Weather

Weather looks to be good this weekend with highs in the low 50s. Might be a little cold in the opener tonight with the late start.

Winds are negilible, so no worries there.

Promotions

I’ll stick with the best of the weekend from my opinion:  There’s a tailgate for Maize Rage members starting at 6pm at tonight’s game.  Free food will be available for those students for the hour leading up to the first pitch.

Other than that, there are the usual give aways and contests.  The team will give a way a couple of free rounds of golf on Sunday to celebrate the Masters tournament ending, and there is also an Easter Egg hunt for kids in 8th grade or younger in the outfield postgame Sunday.

For the full list of promotions, go here.

Outlook

I’m feeling rather pesimistic after the CMU game, but I think we can still take game 1.  Michigan has had success against Haig in the past, and I can’t even bet against a good Chris Fetter start.  I’m not so optimisitc about Saturday as we take on Ben Reeser.  Katzman has done well lately, but that just means he’s due for a less than stellar start as well.  If we get good Katzman and are motivated enough by game one – no matter the outcome – may be enough to steal this game.  Sunday’s anybody’s guess, but the way our back end has pitched lately, my pessimism wants to say we have less than 50% chance of winning it.  I’d say we’re most likely to win just one game in the series.  Two games would be a mixture of luck and motivation.  A sweep… I  might not come down from the high for a week but really really really unlikely.

I’m headed out of town… now… so I won’t have the We Have History up for Illinois.  I’ll also be without TV, internet, and cell phone this weekend as I visit my grandfather.  He’s in a retirement community that is a large ranch in the middle of nowhere Texas.  As Paul put it,

god i love texas. a retirement ranch?  did you guys actually put your grandfather out to stud?

Yes, yes we did.  I’ll be back Monday hopefully to good news.  And hopefully I’ll catch a replay of the game on BTN sometime late at night in the coming week.

Posted under Baseball

As an alternative to the in depth preview of Illinois, I participated in a little bit of Q&A with Illinois’s baseball blogger Tom Nelshoppen, formerly with Baseball Zealot.  The new site is Illinois Baseball Report, and it does some great justice to the college baseball program in Champaign.   Tom works in the IT department for UI and is an avid baseball fan.  The guy covers baseball as I could only dream from this distance.

To see my half of the Q&A, visit the IBR.  I’m growing less positive, but I swear I’m trying to leave some hope.  As I said, this will be the alternative to the in depth preview as it covers a lot of what I do already.  I’ll still have a short post up for the weekend on Friday morning for final notes, media, and probable pitchers.  On to the questions:

Question 1:

I see last year’s closer Ben Reeser has made the jump to starter most impressively this season, but despite his shiny 2.01 ERA and 12:37 walk-to-strikeout ration, he’s only accumulated 3 wins in 6 starts. Is it the bullpen or the lack of offense that is keeping his win total down?

Arggh! You just made me flash back to last Saturday’s loss against Indiana when Reeser was just one strike away from a 1-0 shutout. So in that case, yes, it was a case of lack of offense. I’m sure that was a tough one for Ben.

Reeser’s pitched great all year and has just been the recipient of some tough luck no-decisions. Fortunately, many have been wins for the Illini.

Question 2:

Speaking of pitching, I can’t help but notice these ERA and opponent batting average numbers for Illinois starters. I’ve heard all sorts of positives from the LSU series, but just how good is this starting pitching staff?

More specifically, which three starters do we see and who is the weakest link, if one exists?

No doubt we have good pitching but it’s the depth in Illinois’ rotation that has really helped them. Pitchers like Will Strack, Bryan Roberts and Lee Zerrusen have really stepped in when we needed them. Strack surprised some with his shutout against Michigan State two weekends ago. And every time I look at Roberts’ ERA and do a double take because he’s only allowed three runs in past three starts over 21 innings.

This weekend, my guess is that you will see Phil Haig (who had a rough last couple starts but I think he’s coming around), Reeser, and Roberts.

If the Orange and Blue can avoid the big inning by Michigan, they’ll do okay.

Question 3:

Looking over the offense, the Illini have some impressive batting averages (team: .313, starters: .327) and some decent but not great extra base hit totals – 7th in slugging percentage in the Big10. It appears Brandon Wickoff is still an absolute monster (.402 BA, 25 R, .529 slugging, only 4 K in 102 ABs). Is he still batting third and is there a way to pitch around him? Are the batters behind him that much of a threat?

Wikoff is indeed a catalyst on our team. Last night against Bradley, he continued his torrid pace by hitting for the cycle (first Illini to do so since 1990) raising his average to .421. It goes without saying that Wik is an essential part of our offense.

That said, our offensive threat continues all the way down the lineup. If Michigan pitchers want to pitch around Wikoff, be my guest. Cleanup hitter Dom Altobelli is an obvious threat at the plate (.333, 26 rbis) and #5 guy Aaron Johnson simply loves to hit with runners on base (.366, 4 hr, 28 rbi).

Question 4:

On defense, third basemen Altobelli’s fielding percentage at third base. Is he having trouble with run of the mill ground balls, throwing the ball across the diamond, slow rolling bunts, or a little bit of everything? Or, is he just the recipient of some bad luck? I can’t see his bat leaving the lineup, so do you think Michigan will test him at the hot corner?

It’s true, defense has been an issue for Altobelli, especially during the early part of the year. But rumor has it, he’s been working on it. Those who watched the Indiana series last weekend saw the difference. He made the plays he should have and maybe some others wouldn’t have.

I’m expecting the improvement to continue.

Question 5:

Speaking of defense, Illinois appears to be collecting quite a few double plays this season. They rank 9th in the nation in double plays per game by the last NCAA statistics release (3/29/09). Michigan has been all about crippling double plays at times this season (see: Arizona currently leading the nation in double plays per game). Are we going to see a lot of sinking fastballs and splitters this weekend? If so, who from?

Wow, I hadn’t seen that. Since our pitchers don’t strike out a whole lot of batters (Reeser excepted), placement of the pitch is so important. Fortunately, they do it well, keeping the ball down.

Our keystone combination of Brandon Wikoff and Josh Parr are above par (sorry, I couldn’t resist) so I give them a lot of credit for those numbers.

By the way, I just noticed that Indiana surpassed Illinois in DP numbers this week.

Question 6:

Speaking of Michigan crippling itself, Illinois doesn’t appear to be dominating in the strikeout column. I don’t even have a question for you. I just wanted to point out that I think the Illini Ks-per-9-innings is going up this weekend. Call it a hunch.

Hehe, that may be. Your point is well taken about Illinois’ strikeout rate. Reeser has 37 Ks in 40+ innings but no other starter approaches that (though Roberts’ is decent at 25 Ks in 30 2/3). Phil Haig doesn’t strike out a ton of batters but his walk rate is good.

Question 7:

How is starting second baseman Josh Parr doing? I noticed he left a game this last weekend against Indiana. Nothing serious I hope? Would Bonadonna take over second base if he is out? And speaking of Bonadonna, what happened with him? I see he’s still stealing bases like a mad man, but the average has plummeted from last year.

Thanks for asking. The word is that Parr will be back for this coming weekend’s series against Michigan. He made an appearance last night against Bradley as a pinch hitter. I’m glad to hear it since Parr has been an invaluable part of this team from the very start (4 for 4 in his college debut).

As for Joe Bonadonna, Coach Hartleb had confidence in him in the early part of the season when his batting average was quite low. It was a good call because I think it’s starting to pay off. Bonadonna had a key role in a couple games that really paid off for the team. He’s starting to turn it around offensively.

Besides that, Bonadonna brings so much more to the game. You already alluded to the baserunning aspect. His defense in centerfield is superb as we found out last weekend against Indiana. Finally, Joe is starting to develop as a leader within the clubhouse and the dugout. I’m keeping an eye on him.

So that concludes this part of the Q&A, remember to check in with IBR for my answers to Tom’s questions.  Thanks so much to Tom for making this happen.

Now, on to more pressing matters, like brushing my teeth… I just opened the CMU box score and threw up a bit in my mouth.  [formerlyanonymous shutters then walks away slowly. /scene]

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Illinois: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Illinois	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Illinois eFG% D	132	9	II
Mich eFG% D v. Illinois eFG%	194	88	II
Mich TO% v. Illinois Def TO%	16	93	M
Mich Def TO% v. Illinois TO%	136	90	I
Mich OReb% v. Illinois DReb%	280	144	II
Mich DReb% v. Illinois OReb%	190	252	M
Mich FTR v. Illinois Opp FTR	317	12	IIII
Mich Opp FTR v. Illinois FTR	29	344	MMMM
Mich AdjO v. Illinois AdjD	44	4	I
Mich AdjD v. Illinois AdjO	77	97	M

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.

When Last We Met…

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.

The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.

And…?

Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:

Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.

Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

The raw data is available in .xls format here. On individual player charts, the time played is now from the boxscore, rather than adding up to the second each player’s time played.

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	7:10	15-12	+3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Lee, Sims	2:08	0-2	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	2:24	4-4	0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:43	0-2	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	3:00	5-3	+2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:31	7-7	0
Total	20:00	31-30	+1

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:46	3-2	+1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	4:01	3-7	-4
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:24	4-4	0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:52	0-3	-3
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:34	0-2	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	2:24	1-2	-1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:46	3-2	+1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:03	2-8	-6
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims	:23	0-1	-1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:16	0-0	0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims	:40	3-2	+1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:51	0-1	-1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:08	1-0	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:26	0-2	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Gibson	:26	0-0	0
Total	20:00	20-36	-16

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	16:20	28-24	+4
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Lee, Sims	2:08	0-2	-2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:24	4-4	0
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	3:00	5-3	+2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:03	2-8	-6
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	2:24	4-4	0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:35	0-5	-5
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	1:00	0-4	-4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Gibson	:26	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	4:01	3-7	-4
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	2:24	1-2	-1
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:03	3-3	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:08	1-0	+1
Total	60:00	51-66	-15

Individual players:
(First 6 minutes of game action not charted)

Manny Harris 34min -12
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		0/1		1/1	1
Midrange	1	0/2			2**
3-point		1/2	1/2

Manny had what can only be described as the least shitty day of anyone on the team.

Laval Lucas-Perry 27min -2
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane					1
Midrange		0/1	1/2		1
3-point		0/1	0/2

Had a poor day from beyond the arc, but did some other things that worked.

Zack Novak 33min -9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1
Midrange
3-point			1/2

Had a good day rebounding the ball.

DeShawn Sims 31min -9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1	0/1	0/2		1
Midrange		0/1	0/2
3-point			0/2	0/1

Awful, awful day. All of the shots he made were in the first 6 minutes.

Kelvin Grady 30min -4
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			0/1
Midrange			1/1
3-point		0/1	0/3

Poor effort from three, but did a lot of setting other guys up.

Zack Gibson 9min -6
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1
Midrange		1/2	0/1
3-point

Showed that he is almost entirely ineffective when the other team has some good bigs to go against.

Stu Douglass 12min -13
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange		0/1
3-point		0/1	0/1	1/2

Blerg.

CJ Lee 14min -8
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			0/1
Midrange
3-point				0/1

Bad day shooting, but did the standard CJ Lee other things to be a steady presence.

David Merritt 10min -11
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				0/1
Midrange		0/1
3-point

Mediocre to bad day.

What This Says…

DeShawn Sims struggled against a lineup with actual size. When he struggles, Michigan has major trouble getting anything going offensively for any consistent period of time. Kelvin Grady and Laval Lucas-Perry had by far the best performances in terms of differential.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Illinois: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Illinois	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Illinois eFG% D	53	38	I
Mich eFG% D v. Illinois eFG%	98	35	I
Mich TO% v. Illinois Def TO%	3(!)	34	M
Mich Def TO% v. Illinois TO%	146	72	I
Mich OReb% v. Illinois DReb%	261	157	II
Mich DReb% v. Illinois OReb%	188	216	M
Mich FTR v. Illinois Opp FTR	289	23	III
Mich Opp FTR v. Illinois FTR	8	343	MMMM
Mich AdjO v. Illinois AdjD	21	16	–
Mich AdjD v. Illinois AdjO	131	33	I

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. In free throw rate, Michigan has earned the as-yet-unprecedented 4th letter.

Illinois is a good basketball team. Of course, Michigan somehow managed to knock them off less than two weeks ago, so this game certainly isn’t unwinnable. Still, home court advantage is huge in the Big Ten, and from the looks of things, Michigan may have just gotten lucky in Crisler last time. The key when Illinois has the ball is limiting the number of god shots the Illini get. Michigan must keep the Illinois effective field goal percentage down if they want a chance to win. The Illini have a slight advantage in this area, but that includes ridiculous shooting nights by the likes of Savannah State and Indiana, where the shots weren’t really open, they just happened to fall. On the other end of the court, Michigan must get some good shots of their own. The offense works best when DeShawn Sims is able to shoot not only inside the lane, but also from midrange to open up the arc for the likes of Laval Lucas-Perry and Zack Novak. Manny Harris must continue trying to get to the line, and not get frustrated if he doesn’t get the calls early in the game. When that happened in the Wisconsin game, he unwisely kept trying what wasn’t working instead of dishing to more open teammates. Turnover margin should also play a role in this game. Michigan was forcing turnovers out of the 1-3-1 and man looks against the Hawkeyes, though I think the 1-3-1 is a better turnover-producing set. Of course, playing the 1-3-1 is heavily contingent on making shots (as pointed out after the Indiana game by commenter Mr. Ostrander), so again eFG% is important. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 70-61 Illinois win in a 60-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 16% chance of winning the game.

Illinois is led by Trent Meachem, Demitri McCamey, Chester Frazier, and Mike Davis. Each of those four guys plays 70% or more of the team’s minutes, so getting them in foul trouble – which again leads me to believe Michigan should try to score in the lane in this game – would be helpful. Meachem is the team’s biggest three-point threat, while the 6-10 Davis is primarily an inside scorer. Newly-eligible (following his transfer from Kentucky) is Alex Legion, who has gotten plenty of playing time in Big Ten games. He also forced Zack Novak to get 6 stitches last time these teams squared off.

Call me crazy, but I think with Illinois’s size (3 players over 6-10, and another at 6-7), I think Jevohn Shepherd may get a bit of playing time in this game, if only for his athleticism on defense and to absorb a few fouls to keep DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson out of trouble. Michigan should also be able to get by on their quickness against a bigger Illinois team.

The Wolverines are the underdog yet again, and this game isn’t a must-win, but it certainly would be nice to get the first 2-game season sweep of the year.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball