<cliche>The shooting inside was as cold as the weather outside</cliche>

This wasn’t the best game Michigan has played.  Neither team was really able to get into any sort of rythm, and the flow wasn’t helped out at all by the referees.  I’m not sure if it was how the FGCU Eagles were playing defense or just a bit of laziness, but Michigan rarely got any sort of penetration or post presence.  While Beilein does believe in the power of the 3pt shot, I’m sure he wasn’t happy with almost 66% (42/64) field goal attempts being from long range, especially when the team wasn’t shooting particularly well.

For a while it didn’t really matter since since FGCU showed why they are in the bottom 10 of RPI.  They didn’t get to double digits until about 3:10 left in the first half, while Michigan had put up a (from just watching the game) very inefficient 27 points.  FGCU went on a run midway through the second half to cut it down to eight.  Eight seems to be the magic number, because then Manny keyed a little run to put the game out of reach.  He didn’t do it with his scoring but rather he finally got some penetration which first led to a Sims dunk.  Manny then drove to the right and kicked out on consecutive plays to Novack then Grady for corner threes.  From there, the game was basically over.

Quick Notes:

• Reed Baker had 16 points and played fairly well.  There were a few people in the crowd really cheering on Reed Baker, which was fine, but when he’s on the line hitting the free throw of a three point play to get them within 8pt, the funnyness is gone, and you should root for your team.
• DeShawn Sims was definitely the MVP for Michigan this game.  He went a very efficient 20/20 with 5 offensive rebounds.  He generally took good shots and was a force inside on the glass and with the ball.
• Manny Harris had another quiet game and sat on the bench quite a bit after picking up a couple offensive fouls.  In the Oakland game, he was still able to get penetration and make plays happen.  He was much more passive tonight.
• Laval Lucas-Perry played fairly well, but doesn’t look as comfortable in the offense as the other guards out there.  This will come with time.  He was still able to make some shots (2/3 from deep) and get to the rim and free throw line.  He does look like the third guy to get into double figures most nights.
• Zack Novack, Jevohn Sheppard Stu Douglass, Zack Gibson were never really able to get going.  Gibson missed his outside shots and did his Courtney Simms impression whenever he got inside.  Novack and Douglass never really got their shots going and Sheppard was never in the game enough get his rhythm.
• There was dumb fan behind me saying we needed to post up when there was Grady, LLP, Novack, Lee and Gibson in the game.  I respectfully disagree,

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison  (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball