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Chatting with the Enemy: #@$!-ing Buckeye

After much scouring, we finally found a Buckeye who could converse in modern English. Our liaison to the unwashed masses of Buckeyes is Zach Meisel, a football beat writer for THE Lantern. Enjoy:

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2009 Recruiting Update 11-20-08

The Board.

Moved to Committed:
OK DT Pearlie Graves. Woo!

Added:
FL DE Victor Gray. The Dr. Phillips prospect is a HS teammate of 2010 commit Ricardo Miller.

New Information:
SC OL Quinton Washington. Might he be favoring Michigan? Finalist for Mr. Football.
MI DT William Campbell. Army All-American.
IN LB Commit Jordan Barnes. Still committed, but also looking elsewhere.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Lays out some of his scheduling for cuts and visits.
FL S Vlad Emilien. Don’t forget: He decides Sunday.

Removed:
FL Slot/DB Marsalis Teague. Focused on four non-Michigan schools.
GA TE Terrell Mitchell. Eliminates Michigan. No surprise here, as he hadn’t said anything about the Wolverines in a long time.
OH DE Tank Carradine. Commits to Illinois.
SC S Devonte Holloman. Commits to South Carolina.
FL CB Jarvis Byrd. Commits to NC State.

Etc.:
MI LB Jeremy Gainer will not be added to the board, because he is still committed to Indiana, but the Livonia Clarenceville player is now looking around. He’s added to the list of guys technically committed elsewhere, but hovering on the edge of inclusion (Willie Haulstead, Jamal Patterson, Je’Ron Stokes, and now also Kenny Bell).

Analysis:
Graves is a good pickup – as long as it doesn’t move Michigan down for Dequinta Jones and William Campbell. It appears that Michigan is getting in on more and more elsewhere-committed recruits. Snake oil time? With Bill Lynch not looking like he’ll have a long tenure at Indiana (though he likely won’t be fired after this year), Jeremy Gainer may be there for the taking if the Wolverines decide they want him.

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What do we know about The Game?

Over the course of the year, Michigan fans have seen what the Wolverines have been offering on the field. What they may not be quite as familiar with is their counterpart down South, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fortunately, I’ve been scouting the Bucks all year for the “Across the Border” series with Buckeye Commentary. What has each game showed us that is relevant to Saturday? Take a look:

Youngstown State
Not much, aside from serving as a stark contrast to Michigan’s opener. The two programs are starting off on a completely different plane, and a dominant performance from Ohio State puts the fear of God in Wolverines fans.

We do know that Michigan fans will probably grumble discontentedly when Terrelle Pryor does something of note against Michigan on November 22.

One area that might actually be relevant is also the offensive line of Ohio state being rather underwhelming. Presumably, however, they will cut down on penalties and other mistakes over the course of the year. Of course, there were also other occasions where the OSU line gave Boeckman about 3 weeks to throw the ball downfield. We’ll see which is more indicative of the actual quality of the offensive line when the Bucks see some better competition.

Again, there are caveats about quality of competition, but OSU was also able to harass YSU’s quarterback all day long.

Ohio
Not much, really. Again, Ohio State faced a team that was nothing like Michigan, and the level of competition was very low. Unless Beanie’s foot injury is a lot more severe than the public currently is aware (which I doubt), Michigan will not see an Ohio State team that is minus its offensive catalyst and best player.

However, the pass protection problems persist from last week. Maybe with a more reliable running threat to take some additional heat off the QB, the Buckeyes will be able to settle down and protect the passer, but for now, I wouldn’t be confident they can do this. Of course, Michigan’s offense is terrible bordering on pitiful, so it is likely that, even if Michigan finds itself with a lead in the Shoe on November 22, Jim Tressel will keep pounding away until 3rd and long. With little threat of Michigan building (or extending) a lead, Tresselball will likely be in full force for the greatest rivalry in all of sport.

The other thing noticed was the success of the Bobcats’ spread offense. Even with a backup quarterback in the game (note: still better than either of Michigan’s starting QB options), the OU offense ran pretty smoothly, carrying an upset bid into the fourth quarter. Of course, Jackson could run and not throw, and Michigan’s QBs can hardly do either. Is OSU the new Michigan in terms of inability to defend the spread? Wolverine fans are certainly hoping so. Also, they are hoping that their own offensive line stops sucking.

USC
USC gave us the blueprint for beating Ohio State: play them when they don’t have the services of their best player, and have more talent than them at nearly every position. OK, so maybe that doesn’t realistically tell the 2008 Michigan Wolverines how they can beat Ohio State, but it does show us that the Buckeyes can be beaten, and handily.

Several flaws with Ohio State’s team were accentuated: the quarterback(s), the offensive line, and to a lesser extent, the play calling. Of course, Jim Tressel always saves his most creative gameplan for the Wolverines, but if nothing else, this has given the Michigan coaching staff an idea of what buttons they can press to stress the weaknesses of Ohio State.

Troy
There are a few key notes that Michigan fans should have taken from this game:
1. Terrelle Pryor is likely to be OSU’s starter for the remainder of the year. The Wolverines had better get some practice stopping a running quarterback.
2. The Ohio State offensive line’s struggles early in the year might speak to an actual problem with the unit, rather than shaking out some early-season cobwebs.

I’m not willing to say that Michigan is likely to beat Ohio State this year, but it is starting to seem like Jim Tressel is approaching becoming a new Lloyd Carr. Letting clearly overmatched opponents stay in a game much longer than they should be, laying an egg on national TV last week with arguably his most talented team ever. Of course, some of these problems will be solved with the return of Beanie Wells, but the trajectory isn’t favorable for The Senator.

Minnesota
First things first, it tells us that the Ohio State offense is far better with Beanie in the backfield. If he can stay healthy through the entire year, OSU shouldn’t have any more struggles like they did in the three game stretch between Ohio and Troy.

It also gives us our first chance to see an opponent that Michigan and Ohio State will have in common in 2008. Sure, you can’t compare boxscores side-by-side, but you can (eventually) see who actually played a better game against the Gophers, taking all factors into account.

Still, Ohio State didn’t look overly physical yet again (though better than they did against Troy), and I wonder if they’ll snap out of it during the course of the season. If not, is it possible that they’ll lack physicality against the Wolverines, or (the more likely scenario) be a little TOO physical and aggressive, either being susceptible to misdirection or liable to commit penalties (the “Sparty, No!” syndrome, as it’s known in Ann Arbor).

Wisconsin
The Ohio State offense is much better when they have both Beanie and Pryor available. Assuming those two are in the game against Michigan, Ohio State will definitely manage to score some points. However, The Buckeyes somehow managed to score less against the Badgers than did Michigan’s dysfunctional offense, so the Buckeyes are far from unstoppable. However, given Michigan’s troubles stopping Illinois, it could be a long night when there are more talented players plugged in.

Defensively, there is going to be yardage available against Ohio State. Michigan’s weakness is in the interior offensive line, and Ohio State’s defensive tackles, while they’re pretty good, did not dominate by any means against the Badgers. The Wisconsin offense also did its best when relying on misdirection, which is essentially the cornerstone of Michigan’s offense.

Purdue
Offensively, the Buckeyes really shouldn’t worry. If the offensive line plays well one game all year, they’ll save it for Michigan. However, there is something of a disturbing trend developing here.

Defensively, the Buckeyes showed what they’re capable of doing if they play up to their potential. If they’re in peak form against the Wolverines, maybe Michigan should just punt on first down every series. Wait – then the Buckeyes might just block it for a TD

Michigan State
If last week showed us that, with a little bad luck and some inconsistency, the Buckeyes are beatable, the game against Michigan State did the exact opposite. Whereas last week the offense sputtered and a blocked punt provided the only points on the day, this week the fumble returns and such were just the icing on a particularly delicious cake in the eyes of OSU fans.

Alas, this is the effort Michigan is mo
re likely to see out of Ohio State (the Wolverines and Buckeyes always get the other’s best effort), instead of the Purdue sleeper. However, Michigan fans can look at the last two Ohio State games and see that it is indeed possible to beat the Buckeyes if they don’t show up to play.

Penn State
Though the Buckeyes have only lost two games so far, a couple teams have given a blueprint for what Michigan needs to do to beat Ohio State. First, stopping the run is paramount. Penn State and USC both did this, and it led to their success. Not letting OSU’s WRs behind the defensive secondary will give Pryor more difficult throws to make, and he has shown that he doesn’t yet have the experience to hit covered guys with regularity. Purdue was an example of Pryor’s occasional freshman struggles bringing the team down, though Ohio State’s defense and special teams still managed to win the game for them.

Of course, the offensive line is Ohio State’s key. If they put it all together for one more game this entire year, it will be against Michigan. Therefore, Michigan likely has to commit a few more guys to stopping the run, and hope that Pryor makes enough freshman mistakes to hold his offense back.

Northwestern
The Buckeye offensive line is bad (a relative term in this case, of course), and probably isn’t going to get any better this year. Michigan will provide the best defensive line Ohio State has seen since USC, or maybe Penn State. Michigan should be able to get into the backfield. However, Ohio State has had success this year because of Wells’s and Pryor’s abilities to make plays even when there are players in the backfield. Michigan has been a terrible tackling team this year. I foresee a pretty good offensive day for Ohio State.

Defensively, Ohio State has shown they are capable of shutting down unconventional offenses – though it sometimes takes them a quarter or two. All year, Michigan has shown they can score – but only in the first quarter. The Wolverines will have to pull out all the stops to get a lead early in The Game if they want to stand a chance. The Buckeyes do face their second of three consecutive shotgun-option offenses this week, however, so they may come out pre-adjusted.

Illinois
Well, considering my prediction above [ed. – OSU pounds Michigan], I don’t think Michigan stands too much of a chance in this game. However, we did learn a couple things (relevant, hopefully) about Ohio State from this game. I’m not sure how many tackles the Buckeyes will be missing against Michigan, though.

First, they are definitely susceptible to the run, especially when there’s an option look mixed in. Michigan has less talent for running that type of offense than does Illinois, but if Brandon Minor is healthy, Michigan should at least be able to move the ball a little bit.

Considering Nick Sheridan will likely start for Michigan, I expect to see something more like the offense against Utah or Northwestern (bad) than against Minnesota (good).

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Blogpoll Roundtable

Hosted at College GameBalls.

1. By now everyone has heard that if there is a three way tie in the Big 12 South the highest ranked team in the BCS will play in the Big 12 Championship Game. That means the humans (66% of the BCS Poll) will determine the Big 12 South representative. Let’s assume Oklahoma sinks the pirate ship at home next week. Try to sway the pollsters by arguing which team you think should face off against the Big 12 North.

I’d like it to be Texas Tech, if only because they’re certainly the most exciting team of the three. Of course, assuming an Oklahoma victory on Saturday, they’re probably the least likely to head to Kansas City, on account of historical reputation (unfair) and having played two 1-AA teams (fair). Assuming that those two factors hurt Texas Tech too much, it’s narrowed down to Texas and Oklahoma. In that case, the head-to-head result favors the Longhorns.

2. ESPN is aggressively bidding on the rights to the BCS when Fox’s contract expires after the 2009 season. My half baked theory is if they do win the rights they will push for a +1 system. Lucrative television deals have landed ESPN in bed with each of the BCS conferences. The revenue a playoff would generate could be a huge motivator for the four letter to be the common denominator and unifier among the conferences that finally helps them all to see the light of why a playoff would be good for college football. Help expand upon or debunk this theory.

A +1 system would likely result in a lot more revenue for ESPN, though it would certainly take away one thing for their analysts to complain about all the time. I think, however, that the current BCS system is a little too entrenched for ESPN to have that much of a say, considering their 3-year contract isn’t exactly a show of ownership of the BCS system. I think University presidents (particularly of the BCS conferences) would have a slight issue with this, as it means there are 2 fewer at large teams, and therefore less money for their schools. A playoff is eventually going to happen, but I doubt ESPN’s BCS contract is going to be the factor that turns the tide.

3. Rivalry week is around the corner. How do you think your team will fare? Feel free to talk a little or a lot of trash.

Bad. Nick Sheridan doesn’t always equal death, per se, but his presence certainly implies some form of impending doom. I foresee nothing good to come out of this weekend’s game with Ohio State.

4. And now for a little fun… Assemble your dream announcing team. Pick a play-by-play announcer, color commentator, sideline reporter and for the hell of it celebrity guest that drops on by.

I like the Nessler-Griese pairing, and if I could just eliminate Maguire, it would get exponentially better. I also like Chris Spielman, and it might be worth an experiment to throw him into that grouping. And, because I’m a sports blogger, I’m obligated to say Erin Andrews would be the sideline reporter.

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Pearlie Graves Goes Blue

GoBlueWolverine reports defensive tackle Pearlie Graves (6-3, 260) from Tulsa East Central High School in Oklahoma has given his word to become a Michigan Wolverine. Graves is the 19th commit in the class of 2009. Also, he has an awesome name.

Player Notes
Graves plays primarily defensive end in high school, and that is where the recruiting sites list him. However, he has a big frame, and with a college-level strength and conditioning program, he will likely move to defensive tackle. He will likely end up as a penetrator who is more of a speedy defensive tackle than Big Ten fans are accustomed to.

Recruiting Notes
Graves was offered by Michigan in the summer, and the Wolverines immediately became one of his favorite schools. He took his visit to Ann Arbor this fall, and went home raving about his time there, particularly the academic support. Graves’s stock has been rising lately, with several programs offering him scholarships recently. He picked Michigan over Oklahoma State and others.

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ITP Northwestern

The Situation
Michigan and Northwestern are tied at 14 midway through the 3rd quarter. Neither offense has been doing a particularly good job moving the ball down the field, so it’s likely that the next score could be the game-winner in deteriorating weather conditions. The Wildcats have the ball on Michigan’s 47-yard line, and they have a 1st and 10. They have only moved the ball across midfield once the entire day.

Personnel and Formation
Northwester is in a spread formation, with trips to the right, and a single receiver to the left side of the line. Stephen Simmons is lined up to CJ Bacher’s right in the shotgun. Michigan counters with a 4-3 formation, with Brandon Harrison playing linebacker, and aligned slightly wider to the trips side. Stevie Brown and Charles Stewart are the safeties.

The Play


At the snap, all four Northwestern wideouts go downfield. The outside receivers run fade routes down the sidelines. The outisde slot runs a skinny post, and the interior slot runs a deep crossing route. Simmons comes out of the backfield as a checkdown, running a hitch route. Michigan counters with a cover-2 zone. Trent and Warren cover the fades on the outside, and Brown and Stewart cover the deep middle. Ross Lane Eric Peterman, running the skinny post, is wide open behind the safeties, and sprints into the endzone for one of the easiest touchdown catches of his life.

The player will show in this paragraph

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Why it Worked
There is a little disagreement between Paul and me as to who is to blame on this play (though both of us think Stewart is the primarily culpable party). Trent and Warren seem to be covering the fades quite well in my opinion, leaving the safeties free to cover the other two downfield routes. Paul disagrees, and thinks Trent has lost his man, giving Stewart no choice but to cover the sideline route (of course, the Big Ten Network shows no replay that shows the secondary, which would certainly help decide who is to blame). Regardless, Stewart leaves Lane Peterman completely alone on the skinny post, as Brown has stepped up to cover the deep cross. It is apparent that Stewart is primarily to blame, as Brown bitches him out in the endzone, with no apparent protestations from Stewart.

Also helping Northwestern succeed on this play is one of the most ridiculous non-calls of a holding I’ve seen so far this year (except maybe in the OSU-OSU game). Tim Jamison has a free run at Bacher, except, of course, for the left tackles arm, which is wrapped around his neck. Just another example of the despicable officiating the Big Ten has seen this year (I won’t even get into Donovan Warren’s INT for TD that wasn’t…).

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

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Jason Kates Leaves Michigan

I heard this elsewhere, but will cite MGoBlog for bringing this information to the public.

Defensive Tackle Jason Kates has left Michigan, according to Rich Rodriguez at Wednesday’s press conference. Kates was a Lloyd Carr recruit who struggled with his weight the entire time he was at Michigan.

Under Mike Barwis, Kates had seemingly found his way, and was working towards being a viable player for Michigan. However, he is no longer with the Michigan Wolverines, and best of luck to him wherever he ends up.

Scholarship count updated accordingly.

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Across the Border: Northwestern

Massey from Buckeye Commentary stops by to give his weekly take on Michigan’s game.

What I saw: Blah, blah, blah. You don’t care what I saw last week. We have talked enough about all those boring second-rate conference games. This week is the real deal. No matter how old I get and regardless of how many other things I have going on, this game makes me feel like I am 13-years old again. So, I am sure as hell not going to tell you to “get a life.” This game is very important.

Let’s skip ahead, shall we…

What I expect this week: Michigan has not been this excited for a game since the opening contest against Utah. In that game, the Michigan defense held Utah to 36 yards rushing on 43 attempts (.8 yards/rush). That turns out to be 150 less than the Utes’ season average.

A motivated Michigan defense can cause a lot of problems for this Ohio State offense. It is fashionable these days to say that the Ohio State offense has turned the corner, but a closer inspection reveals some big plays mixed in with a lot of short gains (1-3 yards) and even negative running plays. Pryor is a difference maker because he can run so well and Michigan has had difficulty defending a running a quarterback but, then again, lots of teams have difficulty stopping mobile quarterbacks. Just ask every SEC defense that faces Florida.

And, unless the Ohio State coaching veers dramatically from its recent trend (which they have been known to do in this game), the number of designed runs for Pryor will be a relatively low number. Stopping Wells will be the obvious focus of the Wolverine defense.

The problem is, Ohio State has a defense, too. And it has been playing really well of late. Combine that with the fact that Michigan’s offense is injury-riddled, which never allowed them to gain an appropriate rhythm, and you have a recipe for unleavened offense. Without gaining short fields off turnovers, it will be very difficult for the Wolverines to mount multiple scoring drives. I honestly believe that 250 yards of total offense would be an achievement for Michigan.

There has only been one time in the last 15 years when I was totally free of nerves for this game and that was 1998. That was the most talented Ohio State team I can remember and they were playing an average Wolverine squad coming off a national championship season. Michigan had no chance that afternoon. But I do not feel that way this week.

Michigan’s chances are not great but they have a little history on their side and sometimes that is all you need in a rivalry like this one. I have seen Shawn Springs fall down. I have seen Biakabutuka run for 300 yards. I have seen Stanley Jackson run a counter play to a Michigan LB.

I do not expect to see Nick Sheridan combine for 300 yards of total offense. But then again, I do not expect Tressel to be in a position “to go for three.”

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Blogpoll Final Ballot: Week 12

Rank Team Delta
1 Texas Tech
2 Alabama
3 Texas
4 Florida 1
5 Oklahoma 1
6 Penn State
7 Southern Cal
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma State
10 Boise State 1
11 Georgia 1
12 Ohio State 1
13 Missouri 1
14 TCU
15 Michigan State
16 Brigham Young
17 Pittsburgh 1
18 Maryland 3
19 Cincinnati 7
20 Oregon State 6
21 Ball State 2
22 North Carolina 3
23 Georgia Tech 1
24 Miami (Florida) 2
25 California 5

Dropped Out: Virginia Tech (#17), Florida State (#22), Tulsa (#25).

Changes from Draft: Nothing major. Ignored a request to switch Tech and Bama (disagree with the logic – Alabama’s schedule is weak, weak, weak). I ranked Miami of Florida near the bottom, but the entire ACC is so mediocre that I couldn’t really separate the teams from one another. There was some debate about whether Penn State should be ahead of USC, but I left them the way they were on the basis of Penn State’s overall schedule being a bit tougher, and performance against common opponents.

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Zion Babb Leaves Michigan

Sophomore Zion Babb, a Wide Receiver from Alhambra, California has decided to leave the Michigan football program. Babb was an athlete without a true position in his time with the Wolverines, bouncing between wide receiver, defensive secondary, and special teams.

While Babb is a gifted athlete, it became clear the he was not a natural football player, and after being unable to find a position in Rich Rodriguez’s first spring in Ann Arbor, he settled at Wide Receiver. Despite getting the ball thrown his way a few times this year, he has decided that his future will not be in Maize and Blue. He is not expected to be the last player to leave Michigan.

Best of luck in the future to Zion.

Scholarship count updated accordingly.

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