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Preview: Illinois III

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Illinois: National Ranks
Category Michigan Illinois Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Illinois eFG% D 132 9 II
Mich eFG% D v. Illinois eFG% 194 88 II
Mich TO% v. Illinois Def TO% 16 93 M
Mich Def TO% v. Illinois TO% 136 90 I
Mich OReb% v. Illinois DReb% 280 144 II
Mich DReb% v. Illinois OReb% 190 252 M
Mich FTR v. Illinois Opp FTR 317 12 IIII
Mich Opp FTR v. Illinois FTR 29 344 MMMM
Mich AdjO v. Illinois AdjD 44 4 I
Mich AdjD v. Illinois AdjO 77 97 M

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.

When Last We Met…

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.

The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.

And…?

Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:

Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.

Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Big House, Big Noise

Tonight, between 3:30 and 7:00 PM, the University will perform a sound test in Michigan Stadium to determine how the addition of massive structures along either sideline will affect the venue’s acoustics. The purpose of the 140db “cannon shot” isn’t to measure the added volume from crowd noise fto the players on the field (it’s it’s to plan speaker placement for the PA system), but it certainly can provide some information, however obliquely related.

To the crowd-noise-obsessed Michigan fan, this calls to mind the Oversized Metallic Dandelion from last year’s Minnesota game. Associate Architecture Professor Mojtava Navvab was attempting to determine the difference in crowd noise that adding boxes would cause. The results were something along the lines of “2-4 times as loud,” and though I’m sleptical on that degree of difference, 1) I do not have a graduate degree in architecture, and 2) Even without glass last year, the difference in sound was noticeable.

Of course, the Athletic Department is not actively trying to increase crowd noise with the boxes (at least not as their primary goal), so they likely won’t pursue ways in which crowd noise in particular will increase with the added structures. However, if they wanted to really impact the noise on the field, the most effective way to do so would be encouraging fans to make more noise in the first place.

I’m not a fan of my college football events being Minor League Hockey, as Brian would say (translation: RAWK MUSIC, hokey pump up videos, etc.), but there are ways that the AD could promote a louder environment without delving into the corny. Other schools in the Big Ten take this a bit too far, Sparty, Ohio State, and Penn State among them – though I think it’s no coincidence that the latter two have the best homefield advantages in the conference, but there is a happy medium. Pump up videos are unnecessary, but the banner-shaped video board along the bottom of the scoreboards can be used for evil (a word which here means “good”). Step 1) Stop encouraging the GD3DKPT, also known as “God Damn Third Down Key Play Thingy.”  Step 2) Change the message on the board, not only during third down, but all defensive downs, to something simple like “Make some NOISE!”

I’ll wrap this post up before it gets off on too much of a tangent (that i’ve covered several times before), but, uh yeah. Sound test in the Big House tonight, huh?1

Posted under Football

UFR: Iowa III

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 7:21 12-7 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :19 2-0 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :55 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :57 5-0 +5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Shepherd, Sims 2:13 3-6 -3
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :29 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:22 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:01 3-2 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:04 12-0 +12
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims 1:19 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 40-19 +21

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:56 7-7 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:07 7-2 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Gibson 2:23 2-4 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims :09 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims :52 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:07 11-6 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:03 2-2 0
Grady, Douglass, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson 2:36 4-3 +1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Puls :47 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 33-26 +7

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 25min +21
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 1/1 0/2 2/2

On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.

Zack Gibson 9min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2/3
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1

On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.

Manny Harris 34min +32
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 1/2 1/1 1/1
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 1/3 2/2

Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.

CJ Lee 21min +7
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.

Laval Lucas-Perry 15min +9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1 1/1 2/2

He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.

Zack Novak 31min +36
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1
Midrange
3-pt 1/1 0/1

OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.

Jevohn Shepherd 5min -4
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.

DeShawn Sims 30min +30
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 3/4 4/4
Midrange 4/6
3-pt 1/2

Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.

David Merritt 18min +19
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1 1/1

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Kelvin Grady 3min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.

Anthony Wright 8min -5
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..

Eric Puls 1min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.

Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:

  1. Figure out how many points losing team scores.
  2. Figure out when winning team reaches this score.
  3. Determine from game margin and time left whether winning team was running up the score.

Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Devin Gardner Goes Blue

According to Rivals and Scout, Devin Gardner, a dual-threat quarterback from the class of 2010, has pledged his word to become a Michigan Wolverine. Gardner hails from Inkster High School, and measures 6-4, 200, with a 4.50 second 40-yard dash.

Recruiting Notes
2010 Michigan Wolverine Devin GardnerGardner appeared on Michigan fans’ radar in the summer of 2008, when he transferred from UD Jesuit to Inkster. He performed at Michigan’s 2008 summer camp as both a quarterback and a wide receiver. The staff liked him at both positions, and offered him as a QB shortly after the Rich Rodriguez 7-on-7 competition. Though Gardner had grown up a Buckeyes fan, he remained open to any school that gave him interest. Give them interest he did, as schools from LSU to Michigan to West Virginia mailed the dual-threat QB official offers. When the Buckeyes told him he wasn’t their top choice in January, he abruptly removed Ohio State from his list, and many speculated that Michigan would take over the top spot. Gardner made his meta-announcement early last week shortly before he took an unofficial to Michigan’s Day.  his actual announcement came today, when he picked out the maize-and-blue hat.

Player Notes
Gardner is a big mobile QB in the Vince Young/Terrelle Pryor mold. In fact, he is often described as “The (Vince Young OR Terrelle Pryor) of the Class of 2010.” He runs like a deer, and has exceptionally quick feet, which he 2010 Michigan Wolverine Devin Gardneruses to escape pursuers. His throwing mechanics need a lot of work, as he has a low/sidearm release, much like that of Vince Young. Through all  his current shortcomings as a player, it is important to remember that he is only a high school Junior, and it will be at least a year and a half before he hits FieldTurf: he has plenty of time to work on them (and poor mechanics didn’t seem to hurt Vince Young that much, either). On top of the tangible skills that can be quantified or easily observed, many talent evaluators have branded him with having that indescribable “it factor.” In his junior season, Devin threw for 1,886 yards, 28 touchdowns (several of them to class of ’09 Michigan commit Cameron Gordon), and 7 interceptions. He ran for 1,401 yards and 22 touchdowns. As previously mentioned, he is a bit raw, but will receive plenty of coaching when he gets to Ann Arbor. Gardner will likely be the more highly-rated quarterback in Michigan’s class of 2010, so he will likely hit the field as a freshman.

Video
Hey! A Varsity Blue original!

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Preview: Iowa III

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Iowa: National Ranks
Category Michigan Iowa Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Iowa eFG% D 132 173 M
Mich eFG% D v. Iowa eFG% 194 33 II
Mich TO% v. Iowa Def TO% 17 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Iowa TO% 136 199 M
Mich OReb% v. Iowa DReb% 281 125 II
Mich DReb% v. Iowa OReb% 192 301 MM
Mich FTR v. Iowa Opp FTR 317 86 III
Mich Opp FTR v. Iowa FTR 29 236 MMM
Mich AdjO v. Iowa AdjD 44 96 M
Mich AdjD v. Iowa AdjO 77 72

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Recruiting Update 3-11-09

I was going to try and hold off a bit longer between recruiting posts, but with the latter half of this week likely stuffed full of baseball and (hopefully) basketball, this will run now. I’ve been forgetting to link it of late, so be sure to visit the 2010 Recruiting Board for all the updates.

Removal:
SC DB DeAndre Hopkins, who committed to Clemson, as predicted.

Standard Information:
OK QB DeMarco Cobbs has been offered by basically every school as a wideout, but Michigan is giving the likely 5-star a look at QB. He’s been added to the board, but not yet with an offer.

FL LB Jeff Luc is sporting a Michigan offer, and he can’t decide which National All-Star game in which he’d most like to participate. Florida is his favorite, but he plans to wait until at least fall before he makes a decision. Frequent commenter “i know nothing” also brings his video to my attention, which I present for your review:


The dude looks like a heck of a player, and a very violent presence at linebacker. His offer sheet and invitations to both HS All-Star games would speak to this, and Michigan would certainly love to have him.

Michigan has offered FL CB Spencer Boyd. The 5-10, 160-lber also plays running back in high school. Boyd plans to wait until after his senior season to make a final decision. He’s been added to the board. Speaking of Boyd, Jim Stefani gave his information on some of Michigan’s new offerees:

Spencer Boyd DB/RB/WR 5′10 165 4.31 Cape Coral Florida

One of the top junior DBs and RBs in Florida. I have him ranked as among the top 58 DBs in the nation. As a junior, despite being injured part of the year and playing in just 8 games, he had 104 carries for 620 yards, 30 tackles and a 104-yard INT return for a score. Projects as a college CB. Has very quick feet and exceptional change-of-direction. 225 bench, 385 squat as a sophomore. Honorable Mention All-U.S. Army Combine at DB. Impressive on the 2008 combine circuit (4.31 forty, 4.25 shuttle). Named a team captain as a junior. “He’s kind of like our Marshall Faulk – he does a little bit of everything,” [Head Coach] Goebbel said. “He has the speed to take the ball up the sideline and the power to run between the tackles. We can put him out at receiver and he can catch the ball and make things happen that way. “He’s really one of the best overall players around this area.”

Caleb Lavey LB 6′3 225 4.56 Celina Texas

I have him rated as among the top 25 LBs in the nation. As a junior LB he recorded almost 200 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 FFs and 2 FRs. Nice-sized linebacker who has a great frame and runs well. Good nose for the ball and instincts. 275 bench, 27 vertical. 3.9 GPA. His father attended Michigan and was an equipment manager for the football team. 6-3, 225. One of the top junior prospects at the 1A-3A Texas 7 on 7 Tournament…………..2007 1A-3A State Passing Tournament Top 33 Recruits.

D.J. Williamson WR/DB 6′1 180 4.45 Warren Harding Ohio

I have him ranked as among the top 75 WRs in the nation. Sophomore track times: 10.82 100 meters and he qualified for the state meet, 21.7 200 meters. Great speed and nice size for a receiver, Excels as a return man. 270 bench, 315 squat, 32 vertical

Jim has a ton more information on all three of these guys on his site (I’ve trimmed it down significantly), so go check it out if you’re interested. I’ve also added D.J. Williamson to the board. Per the Junior Day updates listed below, he plans to visit Ann Arbor for the Junior Day this weekend. Webb’s update gave the not-so-subtle implication that a commitment is highly likely while Williamson is in town, so be on the lookout. The internet scuttlebutt is that Williamson grew up a huge Michigan fan, and agrees with the “likely commitment” sentiment.

Now, a slight transition into Junior Day talk:
As was the case last year, Michigan’s first Junior Day of the year will coincide with the Night of Champions, a team-wide competition serving as the official end of winter conditioning, and therefore the beginning of spring practice. Of course, the junior day isn’t the first time Michigan has invited 2010 prospects to campus this year, and several players, such as Jerald Robinson (who offered his commitment), William Gholston, and Devin Gardner have already taken in basketball games in Crisler Arena.

So which players are planning to attend this weekend? As Josh Helmholdt reveals in the Free Press:

Among the in-state prospects who’ve stated they plan to attend are Detroit Southeastern defensive end William Gholston, Detroit Cass Tech cornerback Dior Mathis, Inkster quarterback Devin Gardner, Warren Fitzgerald linebacker Austin Gray, Charlevoix offensive lineman Bill Ivan and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s quarterback Robert Bolden.

Spartanburg, S.C., quarterback Cornelius Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) is one of those who is trying to work out a trip to Ann Arbor for the event. He was offered by U-M in January. Flower Mound (Tex.) Marcus running back Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 220) has also said he wants to visit Michigan that weekend.

(Ivan added to the recruiting board). There are also a few more recent updates:

  • Sam Webb said last Friday on WTKA that he also expects MI CB Mylan Hicks and MI DE CJ Olaniyan to make it in, but that Cornelius Jones probably won’t have a chance to visit until the spring game.
  • Monday, Sam’s WTKA recruiting update included information that DJ Williamson will attend (see above), and SC OL AJ Cann is also going to try to make it up for Junior Day, along with “a few guys from out in Western PA.” I assume that refers to CBs Cullen Christian and Brandon Ifill.
  • This Rivals header states that instate RB Austin White will be in attendance as well.

***UPDATE*** Gardner also plans to announce a commitment decision Monday, after (presumably) coming on the Ann Arbor visit. This can certainly be seen as a positive sign, though it’s not guaranteed that Devin Gardner will commit to Michigan.

Posted under Basketball, Coaching, Football, Recruiting

The Ballad of Shavodrick Beaver

A series exploring the commitments (and subsequent decommitments) of Michigan’s lost members of the class of 2009.

Shavodrick BeaverThe Commitment
When searching for dual-threat quarterbacks for the class of 2009, Michigan fans stumbled upon one Shavodrick Beaver. He’s tall, he can run, and his passing is certainly good enough that he could start at a school like Michigan with a little training. Beaver, along with Kevin Newsome and Tate Forcier, was in the group of three prospects that Michigan seemed to have a really good chance at. When Newsome committed, the race appeared to be on between Forcier and Beaver. Shavodrick took control of his own destiny, and committed to Michigan on April 29th, 2008.

The Decommitment
Despite having commitments from 2 top QBs, many Michigan fans found it curious that Rodriguez continued to recruit Tate Forcier. As Newsome decommitted in late August, Forcier snagged the empty slot, and Michigan’s QB situation appeared to be set. Beaver seemed to be very solid in the class, telling anyone who would listen that he welcomed the competition, and seeming to mock Kevin Newsome for fearing it. Fast forward to December, when BEaver was still saying all the right things about Michigan. However, he apparently had shut out the Michigan coaches for a couple weeks by the time he withdrew his commitment on December 19th, switching to Tulsa. Rumors flew about the actual reason (afraid of competition, wanted to be a big fish in a smaller pond, wanted to stay closer to home, etc.), but nobody ever really heard a plausible reason straight from Beaver’s mouth. In January, he enrolled at Tulsa, and that was that.

The Impact
No sugarcoat, this decommitment hurt Michigan, at least in the short term. At the time of his decommitment all the way to Signing Day, Michigan only had 1 QB in the class when they urgently needed two. Landing Denard Robinson softened the blow, because he is a running threat similar to Beaver. However, you can’t teach Robinson to be 6-4, and he will always have slightly less potential than Beaver as a passer. Robinson is considered a faster runner, and has the ability to play multiple positions. This helps Michigan because it gives them 2 quarterbacks with slightly different skillsets, and gives them the ability to move Robinson to defensive back in the future to make the depth chart more attractive to future recruits (if necessary).

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Spring Notes

I’m not sure why this became such big news on the internet last week, since it’s been known for like 2 months, but Michigan’s spring practice does indeed start this weekend, and the spring game will indeed be on April 11th. For said spring game, I’m certainly interested in a VB tailgate or even a Michigan blogosphere-wide tailgate. More on that as the date gets closer, I presume. My actual spring coverage should commence once spring practice is underway and there’s Actual News to report.

The beginning of spring practice always brings with it a host of junior visitors hitting campus, and this year is no exception. The first official junior day of the year is scheduled to be this weekend (more on that later this week).

Of course, it wouldn’t be spring without a preliminary injury report: Both Michael Shaw and Jonas Mouton are expected to miss the entire spring with injuries, and Mouton’s may be serious enough to keep him out this fall as well. As of now, those are the only two guys who are reportedly injured, but as actual drills commence, that number is certain to increase.

Speaking of spring injuries, last year, Corey Zirbel suffered one of the career-0ending variety. However, Zirbel is still hanging around Schembechler Hall, now serving as a student assistant to OL coach Greg Frey.

Basketball
Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were named first- and second-team all-conference, respectively, by the media (Sims dropped to third team by the coaches).

Hockey
The long-awaited announcement about an outdoor game at Camp Randall Stadium finally came out last week. The new buzz has Michigan hosting an outdoor contest of their own in December 2010. Candidates for an opponent would be Michigan State or a rematch with the Badgers.

Baseball
FormerlyAnonymous should be out of commission for a couple more days, but will be back with a vengeance when he returns. Expect a flurry of baseball updates, especially with a huge series looming this weekend at Arizona.

I apologize for the quick-hit style of this post, but that’s life sometimes, I guess.

Posted under Baseball, Basketball, Football, Hockey, Spring Coverage

UFR: Minnesota II

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:01 4-3 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:45 0-2 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:57 2-6 -4
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 2:01 4-3 +1
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Wright, Sims 1:27 2-3 -1
Grady, Lee, Wright, Shepherd, Sims :15 0-0 0
Grady, Douglass, Wright, Shepherd, Sims :44 0-2 -2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 5:35 15-14 +1
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:09 5-2 +3
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims :06 0-0 0
Totals 20:00 32-35 -3

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:25 3-10 -7
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:00 7-8 -1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:24 4-3 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 3:19 10-2 +8
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:02 6-2 +4
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:50 5-4 +1
Totals 20:00 35-29 +6

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 19min -6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1
Midrange
3-pt 1/2 0/1

Stu’s negative differential doesn’t necessarily say anything bad about him, so much as it says a lot about how important LLP’s performance was on this day.

Zack Gibson 7min +5
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 1
3-pt

Zack had a very good differential for how little he played, and he was on the floor for a big part of the run late in the second half that allowed Michigan to get back in the game. He wasn’t particularly active in it (except for one big block that caused a shot clock violation on the Gophers), but hey, he was out there.

Manny Harris 38min +5
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 1/1
Midrange 1 0/1
3-pt 2/4 1/2 0/1

Played almost the whole game, and shot much better (in terms of decision-making) than he had been.

CJ Lee 19min -3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 1/1
3-pt

CJ Lee good DEFENSE, not great OFFENSE. Did a much better job than usual breaking the press, which allowed Beilein to play him over Grady.

Laval Lucas-Perry 21min +9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1
Midrange 1/1 1/2
3-pt 1 1/1 2/2

Huge. Shot the lights out in the second half when Michigan needed him most. Since I call him out when he’s a liability, I’d better give him props when he plays like this.

Zack Novak 38min +6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1
Midrange
3-pt 1 1/2 0/2

Wasn’t on the floor for a few of the negative shifts in the first half, but other than that played the whole game against much bigger opponents.

Jevohn Shepherd 1min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

With such a small sample size, can’t really criticize his negative differential.

DeShawn Sims 33min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 0/3 1/1 0/3
Midrange 1/1 4/7 0/1
3-pt 1/1

The differential number for Sims is surprising, considering he was the game’s leading scorer. He missed the shift in the second half where Michigan really started making the big comeback.

David Merritt 14min +7
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Kelvin Grady 8min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Got less playing time than last game, and wasn’t a major factor either way.

Anthony Wright 2min -3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

I saw him catch the ball and not shoot it on FOUR separate occasions. What an improvement! Actually had some very nice plays on defense and offense.

Hooray for big second half comebacks, especially one pulled off with DeShawn Sims on the bench against a team with very good size.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Recruiting Update 3-9-09

With information coming in so fast, I may go back to just posting updates as they get full instead of waiting for a particular day of the week. Expect at least one more this week, because there’s a lot of stuff I didn’t fit in here.

Don’t forget to visit the 2010 Michigan Recruiting Board.

PA QB Anthony Gonzalez is a little busy to take his visits right now, but once his basketball season ends, he’ll hit Illinois and Michigan in one trip sometime this spring.

PA QB Malik Stokes (younger brother of 2009 signee WR Je’Ron) says he’s expecting offers to start rolling in once he gets a qualifying score on the SAT. Michigan is one of the schools that he’s predicting might offer.

In other QB news (or non-QB news, as it were), TX QB Aaron Johnson, though he’s a dual-threat QB in high school, and is getting looks from some schools as a quarterback, says that Michigan is looking at him as an athlete, rather than a signal-caller.

FL Slot WR DeJoshua Johnson has accepted an invitation to play in the ESPNU Under Armour All American Game next January. By the time that game rolls around, fans will already know which school the Pahokeeite plans to attend.

CA CB Troy Hill isn’t particularly stoked on Michigan. The implication of that article is that he’s no longer considering Michigan at all after Taylor Hill didn’t end up here (he’s at Kent State), but I think it’s more accurate to say that they have moved from the top of his list into the “others” category, rather than off the list altogether.

“My brother played there but transferred out after they got a new coach,” said Hill.

Apparently, the brother in question is Taylor Hill, but this statement also doesn’t make sense because Taylor Hill never even considered Michigan until Rich Rodriguez became the coach.

This particular Scout headline has a fair amount of relevant information about TX LB Caleb Lavey. 1) He has been offered by Michigan. 2) His dad was an equipment manager for Michigan’s team in the 70s. These things both bode well for Michigan, obviously. Considering all the Michigan connections with LaVey, and the fact that he’s one of the very few linebackers who have been offered, I’d assume at this time that he’s the #1 LB target, and probably the most likely of any player at the position to end up in this class. Of course, things are constantly changing in recruiting, so that status may or may not last for long.

The Detroit Free Press notes that Michigan is interested in OH OL Andrew Donnal. He’s been added to the board as well.

Free Press fluff on CA RB (and noted former teammate of Tate Forcier) Brennan Clay:

“Clay has no plans to make a decision in the near future, but he has not ruled out the possibility either. He will attend Michigan’s spring game in April to see Forcier in his first game-like atmosphere as a Wolverine, but he also plans to spend a few extra days touring the campus and football facilities. Whether that weekend will be enough to seal up Clay’s commitment remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt Michigan will be a strong contender for his services.”

Emphasis mine, because this sounds significantly more positive than conventional wisdom on Clay, for what it’s worth. Most people predict he’ll remain on the west coast (with Oregon as the favorite?). Not only do I think he won’t commit that weekend, but Michigan is a longshot to gain a commitment from him at all. Of course, there’s plenty of time to make up ground.

Georgia and Georgia Tech have both told GA RB Mack Brown that he’ll be able to wear #33 should he choose either of their schools. At Michigan, that number is currently sported by Boubacar Cissoko, but he is rumored to be switching to #2 (then again, rumor has it Justin Turner will wear that number as well, so who knows?). Brown also placed the Wolverines in his top 10 after his offer came through.

FL LB Christian Jones has been offered. So has MD LB/S Josh Furman, and VA LB Aramide Olaniyan has also received his offer (info in header), along with FL DE Delvin Jones. Rounding out the recent offer train is CA S Sean Parker. (All info in headers). All have been added to the board.

Might GA RB Kendrun Malcome be coming up soon in that list of offerees? He certainly thinks that’s likely.

“I think UGA or Michigan will be the next to offer,” he said. “I haven’t heard from Georgia Tech.” Malcome, who also runs track at Southwest, hopes to make a decision during or shortly after the football season.

So take that for what it’s worth.

In what is probably the last item of 2009 recruiting news, NC Ath Larry Raper signed with NC A&T after Michigan decided not to offer him. He has been removed from the 2009 board.

Posted under Football, Recruiting