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UFR: Minnesota I

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:52 10-10 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:15 2-2 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:12 0-2 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson 2:14 8-2 +6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:46 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:26 5-0 +5
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 5:06 13-9 +4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims :03 0-0 0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims :06 0-0 0
Totals 20:00 40-25 +15

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:18 8-8 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:32 3-3 0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims :56 3-0 +3
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson :49 4-0 +4
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson :33 2-3 -1
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :27 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :49 0-3 -3
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :56 2-5 -3
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 3:36 6-4 +2
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims 1:16 0-0 0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:50 5-5 0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:21 1-4 -3
Merritt, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims :37 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 34-37 -3

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 32min +17
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/2 1/2
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 0/1 1/3 1/2

A pretty active day on offense. Did a lot of work on the fast break, as well.

Zack Gibson 8min +9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 2/2

Didn’t play too much, but made the most of his offensive opportunities.

Manny Harris 22min -6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2 0/1 0/1 2/2 0/2
Midrange 1
3-pt 1/1 1/1

Not a great day, but had his moments.

CJ Lee 37min +14
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1 0/1

Had a few turnovers late in the game, and didn’t shoot particularly well.

Laval Lucas-Perry 6min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1 0/1
Midrange
3-pt

Hardly played at all.

Zack Novak 36min +10
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1/2 2/3 3/4

On fire all day.

Jevohn Shepherd 4min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 0
Midrange 0/1
3-pt

Didn’t play much, and was pretty much the only guy in negative differential.

DeShawn Sims 32min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 0/1
Midrange 0/2 2/5 0/1
3-pt 1/4 1/2

DeShawn wasn’t really the featured player on this day. He shot a bunch from midrange, but didn’t make as many of them as he usually would.

David Merritt 9min +10
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Kelvin Grady 14min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1 1/1
Midrange
3-pt 2/2 1/1

Stepped up and got some significant playing time for the first time in a while.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Preview: Purdue II

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Purdue: National Ranks
Category Michigan Purdue Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Purdue eFG% D 162 93 P
Mich eFG% D v. Purdue eFG% 165 3 PP
Mich TO% v. Purdue Def TO% 17 39 M
Mich Def TO% v. Purdue TO% 167 37 PP
Mich OReb% v. Purdue DReb% 269 291 M
Mich DReb% v. Purdue OReb% 164 128 P
Mich FTR v. Purdue Opp FTR 330 220 PP
Mich Opp FTR v. Purdue FTR 27 46 M
Mich AdjO v. PurdueAdjD 72 3 P
Mich AdjD v. Purdue AdjO 71 79

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.

The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.

And…?

I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.

KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Where Does the Offense Go From Here?

Much to the delight of Michigan fans (or maybe just bloggers), Smart Football has taken a fairly serious interest in Michigan since Rich Rodriguez has been the headman. Of course, part of the reason that the Wolverines get mentioned time and again is the fact that everything is not all sunshine and lollipops in Ann Arbor. Of course, Rodriguez has never taken a significant interest in the defensive performance of his teams, so surely the focus of Smart Football is on that side of the ball, no?

Not So Fast My Friend. It is in fact the offense that Chris has taken an interest in. More specifically, it is the idea that Michigan’s offense is not as diversified or systematic as perhaps it should be. This is not an old issue for Chris, who has brought up the point before that the passing game is not conceptually designed. In the more recent post, he goes a little more in-depth:

If Rodriguez wants his offense to be truly elite again, it’s the passing game that has to be the source of innovation. The run game tools are largely in place. There’s some room for improvement all around, but, last season with general inexperience — and without a legitimate running threat at quarterback — the lack of a viable downfield passing attack worked to help cripple the Rodriguez offense. But the fact that this aspect never developed over the course of the season was what really troubled me.

There’s much more to say on this topic, but for now suffice to say that Rodriguez is in danger of falling behind in the spread offense arms race in terms of sophistication. I discussed that phenomena with Purdue as a pass-first spread team over the last decade, but it’s of a slightly different order with Michigan.

Let’s break this down, shall we?

Passing Game
Smart Football sez:

But Rodriguez is a bright guy and his passing game originally derived from (though is a long way now) the old run and shoot. So you’d think he could remedy this. Yet with nothing but true freshman, that evolution will have to wait. The longer they wait, however, the farther behind they fall. The only hope is the increased athleticism masks these deficiencies.

Brian’s take on the matter is that Rodriguez hasn’t been forced to have a complex passing game, because with Pat White at the helm, a dominating run game and simple pass game will work just fine, thank you. I tend to agree with that assessment, and it better be true, because, as noted by Smart Football, the Wolverines are likely a year away from being able to add any complexity to the passing game.

With Pat White able to run the ball like he did, and probably not able to pass well enough to have a full pass game installed, it’s easy to see a potential reason the pass game stayed stagnant. Rodriguez’s recruiting has shown that he’s more interested in being able to throw the ball, however, and Tate Forcier may even be a better passer today than White, if not quite the runner:

Running Game
Smart Football:

Compare their offenses with Rodriguez’s: there’s not much difference from a run-game standpoint (though Meyer and OU mix up their sets a bit more and use more tight-ends now), but the passing games have seen a wide departure.

All due respect to Smart Football (and I may be wrong here, because he knows a hell of a lot more about the game than I do), but I’d be willing to say that even Rodriguez’s ground game, at least as implemented last year, is simpler than other spread teams, most notably Florida and Oregon. Again, part of that might have been players who were less-than-optimal for the spread offense, particularly at the quarterback position.

In the future, however, a diversification of the offense, perhaps including innovations like Meyer’s use of the H-back as a shovel option, or more counters, even the triple option/throwback pass that WVU used in the Meineke Bowl. Having better fits at the QB position, and not having to install just that base offense all offseason, will certainly help that in the future.

The Future

Perhaps Pat White got a bad rap as a passer, or maybe Bill Stewart actually knew what he was doing for WVU’s offense, thoughthe stats don’t agree – and that’s in a year where a senior Pat White was supposed to lead WVU to one of the most prolific offenses ever. However, with White looking more like a quarterback than a wideout or return man at the NFL (for better or for worse), it looks like Rodriguez’s schemes will be able to develop more complexity down the road.

As far as diversifying schemes goes, Chris points out that Oklahoma is an example of a spread team with a much more complex (and effective) passing game than Michigan’s. The use of the tight end is pointed out specifically. In fact, Rodriguez has reportedly planned to visit Oklahoma’s coaches in the offseason to trade information on the passing game, particularly the use of tight ends (of which Michigan has many who aren’t getting very much use).

In the future, I would love to see visits to Florida as well, for diversifying the running game a bit, along with figuring out other ways to use the tights ends effectively in the spread offense.

And, as pointed out by Smart Football, Oregon’s offense is one of the best-designed as well. I’ve pointed out in the past that I don’t think Michigan’s schemes are as creative as Oregon’s, and that’s one area where there is room for improvement. Perhaps in the future, Rodriguez can pick the brain of Chip Kelly.

And, most importantly for the future comes recruiting. Rodriguez has more resources available at Michigan than he ever did at West Virginia. White’s emergence as a possible NFL QB has to help recruiting as well. Even if he didn’t tweak his offense at all, if he continues to recruit like he has for the past two classes (or, more likely, improves it by having more success on the field), He could be able to usurp the quality of his offenses in Morgantown. With minor improvements to certain aspects of the offensive side of the ball, an outstanding offense is likely in the future of Michigan football.

Posted under Coaching, Football

Recruiting Catch-up Post

Last week TheWolverine’s Josh Helmholdt had a recruiting chat on the Freep website, and I was aware of it but without anywhere to put it. So, I’ll dedicate a post to it, parsing out all the details I think are relevant.

Michigan definitely has a good shot at Inkster QB Devin Gardner. He dropped Ohio State this past week and that was the team he grew up following, so that increases Michigan’s chances that much more. Right now they have a better shot of landing Gardner than [Robert] Bolden. I personally like Gardner’s upside best. He truly does have some of the characteristics that made Terrelle Pryor the No. 1 recruit coming out of HS in the 2008 class. Gardner is also one of the QB prospects who Michigan has the best chance of landing.

I spoke with Austin [Gray] last night and Michigan is definitely high on his radar. Michigan State and Illinois look to be on the verge of offering and Indiana, Toledo, CMU and others already have. He is not listing an outright favorite right now

I was down in Florida with Marvin [Robinson] last week, and I still feel good Michigan is the team to beat. Several others in Florida agree with me on that.

William [Gholston] did favor MSU and really still does, but he has been adamant in the last couple weeks that he does not want to make an early commitment because he has not visited very many schools.

Gholston, Derrick Bryant and Darryl Baldwin from Solon, Ohio, [are the main targets] at defensive end. At DT, there is a kid in Georgia they are taking a look at, but all in all the talent nationally at that position is weak this year. Most of those offers will come later in the process.

[Regarding adding players to the 2009 class] They took a look at Carolina ATH Larry Raper, but have not offered. There are a few three and four-star guys still left uncommitted and if they can get in with one of them, then maybe they add one more. I keep in close contact with Raper, and he has not been offered yet by Michigan. As the days go on, there is less of a chance he does get that offer. The lack of available talent at the DT left in the 2009 class makes it unlikely they will add another one in the 2009 class.

I really believe [Nick Hill] will [end up in Michigan’s class] Joe, and likely even before Michigan’s summer camp. Hill is short (5-6), but he has such unique abilities and brings more to the table than most HS backs. I am really high on Hill and rank him as one of the top 5 players in the state for 2010.

Most of that falls in the range of “not at all surprising if you pay attention,” but it’s still worth noting when there’s good recruiting content for free.Michigan State has since offered Gray, and I’ll try to sleuth out who the Georgia DT is.

And while I’m catching up on old recruiting information that wasn’t likely to end up having a home, DocSat talked most successful recruiting schools over the past two classes, and it’s pretty encouraging for Michigan fans:

Bama has reeled in 40 players rated four or five-stars by Rivals over the last two Signing Days. By comparison, the only other schools with more than 30 are USC and Michigan, with 31.

The big difference for Michigan, of course, is the lack of 5-star guys. USC and Bama have 6 and 7, respectively, while the Wolverines have only 1. Hopefully, more success on the field will allow the coaching staff to continue and accelerate the super-positive recruiting momentum they’ve managed to gain despite a 3-9 year.

Posted under Coaching, Football, Recruiting

Recruiting Update 2-24-09

Michigan has tendered an offer for GA QB/DB Blake Sims. He’s currently listed on the board as a DB, but may move over to QB, since this article certainly seems like he is being recruited for that position by Michigan.

LA QB Terrance Broadway has Alabama as his early favorite, and most schools pursuing him are in the South. He is more of a mobile pocket passer than a spread or running QB.

Tate Forcier’s high school teammate, CA RB Brennan Clay, has Michigan barely hnging in on his top 5. The Wolverines trail Oregon, USC, Cal, and Stanford. He would like to stay a little closer to home, but the Wolverines will get visits to change his mind.

FL Slot WR De’Joshua Johnson has set his decision date: September 27, the first anniversary of the death of Pahokee teammate Norman Griffith, who was also a good friend of Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne. Positive notes regarding Michigan’s shot:

Michigan already has three ex-Pahokee players on its roster, which certainly will appeal to Johnson, and the Blue Devils always have had a good relationship with West Virginia and its staff.

Obviously, West Virginia’s staff is in Ann Arbor now, and the Pahokee pipeline factor will hopefully play a role. Johnson is expected to play QB for Pahokee this year, but play slot in college.

SoFlaFootball tells us of a couple guys whose stock is on the rise, including a guy already on the recruiting board as well as one to add:

Michaelee Harris WR Northwestern: The talented 6-foot, 170-pound receiver for the Bulls was a name many people knew, and he showed flashes of greatness on the field. The past couple weeks at the Badger Sports Passing Camp and the Under Armour Combine, he’s looked like man amongst boys.

Delvin JonesDE/TE Palmetto: It’s hard to miss this 6-foot-6, 230-pound man child, but the agility he displayed during the Badger Sports Passing Camp was impressive. The defensive side of the ball is where Jones’ home will be in college, and this spring he must show a more consistent motor coming off the edge.

Keep these guys in mind, and it’s good to see a couple Michigan prospects’ stock on the rise.

FL WR Gideon Ajagbe sounds like he favors Florida, North Carolina, and everyone else, in that order. With Michigan’s WR situation, it seems unlikely that they start showing much interest in him.

Will Bryce Brown end up at Miami? I don’t really care, except it likely has a bearing on these guys:

The 2010 recruiting class is loaded with stud running backs and the top four, Eduardo Clements, Brandon Gainer, Giovanna Bernard [sic], and Jakhari Gore (Frank Gore’s cousin) have all listed Miami has their top choice.

Tha U probably won’t take all four guys regardless of Brown’s final decision, but they’ll certainly take even fewer if Brown ends up signing there.

Michigan is showing interest to NC OL Robert Crisp, which is nothing new or surprising, but it’s worth noting that he’s mentioning the Wolverines in his updates.

TX DT Jay Guy has been offered by Missouri (info in header). The Longhorns never offered, however, which means is recruitment looked outside the Big12. Of course, he has since committed to Cal, but I’m going to adjust VB policy and leave him on the board since he’s said he’ll take visits.

SC S DeAndre Hopkins has been named his state’s Mr. Basketball. He is also all-state for the third time. Hooray for ridiculously gifted youngsters.

FL S Marvin Robinson, who had previously asked Ohio State to stop recruiting him, now says he will visit the Buckeyes.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Iowa Preview: Round 2

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Iowa: National Ranks
Category Michigan Iowa Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Iowa eFG% D 153 170 M
Mich eFG% D v. Iowa eFG% 155 29 II
Mich TO% v. Iowa Def TO% 22 242 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Iowa TO% 157 218 M
Mich OReb% v. Iowa DReb% 261 159 II
Mich DReb% v. Iowa OReb% 179 294 MM
Mich FTR v. Iowa Opp FTR 322 137 II
Mich Opp FTR v. Iowa FTR 22 197 MM
Mich AdjO v. Iowa AdjD 61 124 M
Mich AdjD v. Iowa AdjO 77 70

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Recruiting Update 2-20-09

If LSU goes after Bryce Brown, might it hurt them with TX RB Lache Seastrunk? The Tigers are widely considered to be in Lache’s top 2 with Texas, and less competition might help Michigan’s chances. Also, dude can dunk. That may be a “well, duh” moment, but for somebody who’s generously listed at 5-9, that’s pretty impressive.

GA S Daunte Carr is hearing from several schools, but so far, Michigan isn’t among them. Little Brother and Notre Dame are chasing him, along with various schools across the south.

VA OL Marquis Wallace is hearing from plenty of schools, but Wet Virginia is his only official offer. Michigan is not listed among the schools giving him attention. At this time, it would appear that Clemson and WVU are his top 2.

FL WR Chris Dunkley says he’ll give more attention to the schools that were on him early. He’s also been selected to the ESPNU/UA All-Star game, and has accepted the invitation.

TX DE Reggie Wilson has a fairly interesting backstory, in that he’s from the Ivory Coast. Whichever school he ends up attending is going to have all sorts of puff pieces on SPN broadcasts of their games, a la Penn State’s Tamba Hali a few years ago. Be careful, because this article is already pretty damn puffy. He had 58 tackles, 12 for loss, and 9 sacks last year.

Josh Helmholdt speculates in the Detroit Free Press about who might be the next recruits to drop for Michigan:

Michigan could find themselves the recipient of several more commitments in the coming months. They are being listed as the favorites by several recruits across the country including Columbus (Ohio) Brookhaven defensive end Derrick Bryant, Apopka, Fla., cornerback Lo Wood and Orlando (Fla.) Dr. Phillips wide receiver Kenny Shaw.

This corresponds with the conventional wisdom, though Bryant has recently said he’s changed his mind, and will wait some time before making a decision. Among fluff on Michigan’s existing commits so far, there’s also an interesting tidbit on MI WR Commit Jeremy Jackson:

He could be moved inside as a stand-up tight end because he is physical enough to handle linebackers and would create mismatches for them in the passing game.

That move would make him a speed mismatch as a tight end, rather than a height mismatch from the wideout position. I hadn’t considered it, but it certainly makes sense, and would slightly alter the distribution of commits in the class so far.

OH CB Christian Bryant likes Ohio State and Tennessee. Given his Glenville association, that makes perfect sense (Ohio State gets any Glenville kid they want, and CB Mike Edwards signed with UT last year). Bryant, like most Glenville kids, plans to take his time before making a decision.

I’ve been forgetting to mention this, but OH OL Andrew Norwell committed to Ohio State. He’s been removed from the board.
TX QB Connor/Conner Wood committed to Texas, so hes been removed.

…and now for your dose of epic stupid when it comes to recruiting:

Penn State is either in the drivers seat, or else in great shape, with every single one of those kids except Malik Stokes. It is the consensus that Stokes is incredibly overrated. He has contacts in the media who have inflated him like they inflated his older brother J’ron. Stokes will be a hot commodity because his brother is a year older than him and just committed in a pretty high profile recruitment, since he decommitted from Tennessee and ended up at Michigan.

Somebody doesn’t know the meaning of the word “consensus,” because it’s literally impossible for there to be a consensus that something or someone is overrated. Yes “J’ron” (which one must assume is intended to refer to Je’Ron) was incredibly overrated, which is why his stock went up after the Army All-American bowl, when he was still committed to Tennessee, and before his Comcast special was even proposed, much less filmed. I’m sure your opinion of the Stokes brothers is in no way altered by Je’Ron not giving the Nittany Lions the time of day, even when they tried desparately to get back in on him late in the process. FAIL.

For the record, I think Stokes is nothing more than a second option at QB in the class.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Coaching Grades

Back in November, The Blue-Gray Sky made a post evaluating Charlie Weis, whether he had reached his ceiling, etc. While not particularly interesting to the non-ND fan on the whole, there was an interesting idea contained within, and that is giving a coach grades in several key categories. Those chosen by Jeff were Offensive Mind, Defensive Mind, Recruiting, Fundamentals, and Motivation. Their comparison was between Charlie Weis and Lou Holtz, which ended up looking like this:

Grades
Category Lou Holtz Charlie Weis
Offensive Mind B B
Defensive Mind C C+
Recruiting A A
Fundamentals A D
Motivation A++ C

This is a pretty good representation (though Weis’ offensive mind is clearly overrated – see games against Boston College, Syracuse, San Diego State, USC, etc. – all in his fourth year and with his own recruits). However, I’m obviously not here to talk about Notre Dame coaches, I’m here to apply this concept to Rich Rodriguez.

Offensive Mind – A-

Of course, Rich came to Michigan as an offensive genius, the father of the zone-read offense, engineer of the West Virginia Spread n’ Shred, etc. So how do I not give the man at least an ‘A,’ if not an ‘A+?’ Rich is a very good offensive mind, but he’s very much married to his offensive system, and while he can adapt it somewhat, I don’t see in him the creativity that someone like Chip Kelly brought to Oregon’s (very similar) offense. Maybe down the road, when he gets the personnel he needs, he’ll be a little more creative. however, I’m not sure there was tons of evidence for that in his time at West Virginia, and it remains to be seen if there are many tricks up his sleeve.

Defensive Mind – D+

Rich has never really worried much about defense. He’s put his focus into offense, and hired a defensive coordinator he trusts (or doesn’t trust and fires after one year) to be the “head coach” of the defense. This can be construed as a negative if it doesn’t work out, or a strong positive if it does. Coach Rod does have a reputation for being loyal to his friends from West Virginia, rather than surrounding himself with the best assistants available, so it is something of a weakness.

Recruiting – A-

When you take into account all the media-fueled “turmoil” around the Michigan program, and the negative recruiting that has stemmed from it, Rich has had a great pair of recruiting classes. He’s been able to pull down a pair of top-10 efforts with all the uncertainty around Michigan and the headhunting in the press. Just that alone is worthy of a grade in the A-range. If he’s able to start pulling in annual top-5 or top-3 classes once Michigan starts winning, this grade certainly has upward potential.

Fundamentals – B-

The coaching staff stresses fundamentals, and from everything we know about Rich’s past, he’s very very into teaching fundamentals. However, with Michigan’s play on the field last year, how can he get any better a grade than this? The offensive line in particular improved over the course of the year (and indeed, Greg Frey has the biggest “fundamentals guy” reputation among the coaches), so maybe as the system is installed more, and as the coaches settle in, the fundamental focus will improve.

Motivation – A

You’ve seen the Barwis video. I’ve seen the Barwis video. Barwis may not be Rodriguez, but the two are definitely an inseparable unit, and the motivation that Barwis brings is amazing. Rodriguez himself isn’t such a bad motivator (though, from the sounds of things, he was a little too focused on the stick, and not the carrot at times last spring), and the tandem is amazing motivationally.

When broken into units, it’s easy to see why coach Rodriguez is considered one of the top football leaders in the country. As long as he has a good defensive coordinator to take care of that side of the ball, he should be able to build any team and any program to success in due time.

Anything you don’t agree with? Debate in the comments.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Preview: Minnesota

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Michigan v. Minnesota: National Ranks
Category Michigan Minnesota Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Minn eFG% D 159 63 O
Mich eFG% D v. Minn eFG% 156 115 O
Mich TO% v. Minn Def TO% 27 27
Mich Def TO% v. Minn TO% 150 226 M
Mich OReb% v. Minn DReb% 258 263
Mich DReb% v. Minn OReb% 200 60 OO
Mich FTR v. Minn Opp FTR 319 200 OO
Mich Opp FTR v. Minn FTR 30 231 MMM
Mich AdjO v. Minn AdjD 66 44 O
Mich AdjD v. Minn AdjO 81 75

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

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UFR: Northwestern II

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:48 6-11 -5
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:48 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :16 3-0 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson 2:28 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Shepherd, Gibson :32 0-0 0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Gibson 1:09 0-0 0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Wright, Gibson :32 2-0 +2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Wright, Sims 2:34 3-5 -2
Merritt, Douglass, Wright, Novak, Gibson 3:53 5-7 -2
Totals 20:00 25-27 -8

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:12 9-4 +5
Lee, Douglass, Wright, Novak, Sims 1:23 2-3 -1
Lee, Douglass, Wright, Novak, Gibson :50 0-0 0
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :23 0-2 -2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson 1:28 0-2 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims 1:15 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:06 2-2 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 2:11 4-6 -2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :23 2-2 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Wright, Sims :34 0-1 -1
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims 3:08 5-0 +5
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :48 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Gibson :24 0-0 0
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:55 2-5 -3
Totals 20:00 31-29 -4

Overtime

Overtime
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:57 8-2 +6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Gibson :38 0-2 -2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :26 0-3 -3
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Gibson :23 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :25 2-2 0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Gibson :11 2-2 0
Totals 5:00 14-11 +3

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 36min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1 0/2 0/1

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Zack Gibson 19min +1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/2 1/1
Midrange
3-pt

Played a lot with Sims in foul trouble. Didn’t score a ton, but did what he needed to do.

Manny Harris 32min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 1/2 2/2 2/5
Midrange 2/2
3-pt 1/5

Really came on offensively in the second half. Played a solid defensive game, as well.

CJ Lee 40min +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/2 1/2

His inability to handle the rock and (occasionally) to shoot free throw nearly cost Michigan the game, but they probably wouldn’t have been in it without his defense.

Laval Lucas-Perry 8min +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange
3-pt 1/2

Had a few big plays defensively.

Zack Novak 32min +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1/2 0/2 1/1

Shot kinda poorly, but did the gritty white guy thing.

Jevohn Shepherd 2min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

Offensive liability, and he doesn’t help a ton on the defensive end, either.

DeShawn Sims 26min  +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2/3 1/1
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 0/1

Not a big offensive day, and he fouled out on a phantom call. He was big defensively though.

David Merritt 15min +1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Kelvin Grady 1min +2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Only played when Beilein couldn’t rely on CJ to bring the ball up the court against the press.

Anthony Wright 14min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1 1/1

Standard day.

The officiating in this game was a special kind of suck. This time, I think the Wolverines got the short end of the stick, and Sims’s 5th foul was an especially egregious call. CJ Lee can’t handle the ball at all, and Kelvin Grady really needs to step up his defense a bunch for the offense to get moving again. Beilein has favoired defense over offense for the past 8+ games, and it’s gotten a few results, but being able to get both halves from one player would be huge.

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