Raw data for both UFRs can be found in last night’s post.

Ohio State:

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:22	4-9	-5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:32	2-4	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:06	2-0	+2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	4:37	6-8	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:02	0-2	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	2:11	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	:48	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	1:20	2-4	-2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:04	7-2	+5
Total	20:00	25-29	-4

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	8:30(!)	15-11	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:24	5-4	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	2:16	3-2	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:35	0-3	-3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:44	3-7	-4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:55	0-2	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	:40	2-3	-1
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Sims	:19	3-2	+1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	:35	0-1	-1
Total	20:00	37-40	-3

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	14:00	21-20	-1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:32	2-4	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	2:16	3-2	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:35	0-3	-3
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	6:23	12-8	+4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	4:37	6-8	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:59	5-11	-6
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	2:11	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	:48	2-0	+2
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Sims	:19	3-2	+1
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	1:20	2-4	-2
Total	60:00	58-65	-7

Individual players:

Manny Harris 37min -7
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1	0/3	0/1	2/2
Midrange			1/1	1/1
3-point		0/2	2/3

Manny was up-and-down. Even when he makes it, I don’t like the hesitation three-ball.

Laval Lucas-Perry 26min +1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1
Midrange				0/1
3-point		0/2	0/1	0/1

Awful. This has been a trend of late.

Zack Novak 37min -10
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1
Midrange
3-point		0/2			1

Had a good day rebounding the ball. Not so much shooting.

DeShawn Sims 32min -4
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		0/1	1/4	2/3	1/2
Midrange			0/1	0/1
3-point				0/1

Bad day. He’d recover against PSU.

Kelvin Grady 27min -6
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1
Midrange
3-point		1/1	0/3

Poor effort from three, but did a lot of setting other guys up.

Zack Gibson 8min -2
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		0/1
Midrange
3-point

So bad.

Stu Douglass 21min -9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point		0/1	2/4	2/3

A pretty good day behind the arc.

CJ Lee 6min +2
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point			0/1	1/1

Let’s be honest: he’s in there for his defense.

David Merritt 6min -4
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			0/1
Midrange
3-point

Needs to make the few opportunities he’ll get.

What This Says…

Michigan was actually in this game for most of the way. There were a few dry spells toward the end that really did them in, and no personnel combo that Beilein tried could alter the momentum.

Penn State:

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:32	7-4	+3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:33	2-7	-5
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	3:36	3-9	-6
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:01	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:24	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	3:52	4-2	+2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:17	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	1:57	4-3	+1
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	1:52	2-4	-2
Total	20:00	22-29	-7

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:08	2-8	-6
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:11	4-5	-1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:17	2-6	-4
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:29	0-2	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:22	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	1:22	2-5	-3
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:36	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:05	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims	2:37	7-7	0
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:29	3-10	-7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:19	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson	1:54	5-1	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Puls, Gibson	1:09	5-0	+5
Total	20:00	36-44	-8

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	7:40	9-12	-3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	1:57	4-3	+1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	5:44	6-12	-6
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	4:05	3-11	-8
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	1:52	2-4	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:17	2-6	-4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:01	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:24	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	3:52	4-2	+2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:17	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:22	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	1:22	2-5	-3
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:36	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:05	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims	2:37	7-7	0
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:29	3-10	-7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:19	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson	1:54	5-1	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Puls, Gibson	1:09	5-0	+5
Total	60:00	58-73	-15

Individual players:

Manny Harris 26min -10
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	2	1/2	0/1	1/1	0/1
Midrange		0/2			2/2
3-point		0/3	0/1	0/1

I’d still like him to keep trying to draw contact; eventually they’ll have to call fouls.

Laval Lucas-Perry 25min +6
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1		0/1
Midrange				1/1
3-point			0/5	0/1

Really bad shooting day.

Zack Novak 28min -24
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1	0/2
Midrange
3-point			0/2	1/2

Did the little things well, but not so much on the shooting.

DeShawn Sims 29min -16
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		1/2	1/2	1/1	2/2
Midrange		1/1	3/5
3-point

The only god player for the whole team. He didn’t have enough to carry them by himself.

Kelvin Grady 23min -22
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point			1/4	0/1

Got much less playing time than usual. He was struggling with his shot, but kept putting them up.

Zack Gibson 11min -1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1	0/1
Midrange				0/1
3-point			1/1

Bad day. Needs to show off his whiteboy athleticism.

Stu Douglass 26min -15
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point		2/2	1/4	0/2

Mediocre shooting day.

CJ Lee 12min -11
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point				0/1

Poor performance in somewhat limited time.

David Merritt 7min +1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				0/1
Midrange		0/1
3-point

Very little playing time.

Anthony Wright 3min +9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point				0/1

Garbage time only.

Jevohn Shepherd 9min +7
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1		1/1
Midrange			0/1
3-point

Was one of the few guys who played more than just garbage time with a positive number. The team didn’t do too much scoring when he was in, but nor did the opponent. I’d like to see him on the court as a complement to high-scoring players.

Eric Puls 1min +5
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point

Garbage only.

What This Says…

DeShawn Sims was the only consistent player all day. The entire team struggled shooting, and they were putting up poor looks. I think that a long week of practice (this team hasn’t had more than a couple days off in quite some time) will help them get back on track. Is it too late, though?

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Tennessee is trying to nab LA DT DeQuinta Jones from Michigan’s evil clutches. Rich Rodriguez was also in-home this week, and DD will visit Michigan and Tennessee over the next two weekends, respectively.

The volunteers’ new staff is also trying to fortify their commitment from PA WR Je’Ron Stokes with in-home visits (commitment swap?). He has visits remaining to Illinois and Georgia Tech over the next two weekends. Without PSU jumping headlong into things, I’d imagine Tennessee and Michigan are the realistic choices for Stokes.

Speaking of elsewhere-committed wideouts, FL WR Willie Haulstead is taking his FSU official this weekend. If he comes out of the visit without reaffirming his commitment, MIchigan’s chances have to look pretty good.

RR also visited with SC DE Sam Montgomery last night. The Wolverines are in Sam’s top group, and most of his in-home visits have taken place over the course of this week.

Sam Webb Freep fluff on 2010 MI CB/Slot Dior Mathis.

“The education is first for my parents and my coach,” he said. “They always stay on me about that, so education first. The second thing is, am I going to be able to play as a freshman? The third thing is I want to win a national championship. Those are really the main three goals right now going into college. I’m just going to take my time, focus on my grades and wait until my senior year (to make a decision).”

Wolverine commitments Teric Jones and Thomas Gordon aren’t shy about sharing their opinions about where they think their young comrade should go. “Every time they come around, they always tell me, ‘Go Blue,’ ” Mathis said.

So, the relevant information is as follows: 1) the other Cass Tech guys are (rather predictably) recruiting him for the Wolverines, 2) he wants to be able to win a championship at his school, 3) and he won’t decide until sometime during his senior year. #3 is good for Michigan in terms of #2, in that they’ll have a chance to prove that 2008 was a fluke by the time Mathis decides.

2010 TX RB Lache Seastrunk may be part of an enormous package deal.

There is talk fluttering around that there is a mega package deal in the 2010 class that involves some of the best players in the entire nation. Oregon isn’t a front runner for the package deal that includes probable overall #1 player Lache Seastrunk, [TX CB] Toney Hurd JR, [TX OLB] Shaun Lewis, and [LA Slot WR] Trovon Reed.

Michigan has consistently been mentioned as one of Seastrunk’s front-runners (in the top 5-ish, behind a top 2 of Texas and LSU), so I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan gets in on the other guys. They have been added to the board. For his part, Reed (a high school quarterback) liked the way West Virginia used Pat White under RR.

Fluff on 2010 AR RB Michael Dyer.

2010 PA CB Cullen Christian was apparently in the house for Michigan’s hoops loss to Ohio State on Saturday. I haven’t seen any confirmation ex post facto, so take that for what it’s worth.

2010 GA QB Blake Sims and teammate Slot Tai-ler Jones are expecting visitors from some midwest schools this week. There is also mention of junior days, which leads me to ask “when is Michigan having junior days?” I assume, at this point, it likely won’t be until after signing day as the 2009 class gets finished up in full-throttle mode.

Removed from the 2010 board: WI LB Konrad Zagzebski, who has committed to Minnesota.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Just the raw numbers for you tonight, actual UFR analysis to come tomorrow.

Ohio State

Penn State

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

One of the most stunning turnarounds in college football’s 2008 season was that of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. After winning but a single game in 2007 (over a Miami team that didn’t make a bowl out of the MAC), Tim Brewster managed to lock down a top recruiting class and led his team to 7-5 and a bowl game. So how did the Gophers do it, and why can’t Michigan do it like that?

The biggest problem for Minnesota in 2007 was defense, and they ranked last in the nation in stopping their opponents. So what caused the turnaround? Minnesota recruited several JuCo players in the class of 2008, at least a couple of whom (Traye Simmons and Tremaine Brock) played key roles on the defensive unit. Also, Minnesota got Willie VanDeSteeg back after he was hampered by injury throughout the entire 2007 year.

One thing that this year’s Wolverines had in common with last year’s Gophers was turnover margin. The Gophers were 114th in the nation in 2007 in net turnovers, and Michigan’s team this year was 105th. Adam Weber reduced his interception total from 19 to 8 over the course of one year. With Michigan either returning Steven Threet or starting a true freshman, how much can the interception total (12) be expected to decrease. No, it wasn’t throwing picks that hurt Michigan this year, it was fumbling the football. Michigan lost 18 this year, so how can we expect that number to drop next year?

Minnesota’s offense in 2007 was actually pretty successful at moving the ball when it wasn’t coughing it up. In this way, the Gophers differed from Michigan 2008 in a pretty significant way. Michigan will have to rely an an upgrade at the quarterback position (Steven Threet staying healthy plus Tate Foricer entering should help) and along the offensive line (the group, which improved over the course of the year, returns all starters, plus adds a few redshirt freshmen who may be ready to contribute).

Minnesota last year may actually be the closest analog to Michigan this year. A new coaching staff installing new schemes on each side of the ball didn’t really have enough time with their team to get everything put together for a successful run in their first year. Michigan’s recruiting haul on the whole may not be quite so ready-to-play as MInnesota’s was last year.

Of course, Minnesota was vastly overrated this year, on the basis of a weak non-conference schedule and a soft schedule overall toward the beginning of the year. Toward the end of the year, they were exposed as something of a fraud. This will probably be what Michigan is like next year.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Recruiting Boards can always be found on the left sidebar. 2009 & 2010

First things first: it’s quite obvious that, this late in the recruiting process, there are only a few realistic prospects left on the board. There may be other guys that end up wearing the right colors, but it’s more likely that they come out of the woodwork. So, a lot of prospects came off the 2009 board in the past week (unrealistic though some of them may have been). Let’s review:
MS S/WR Dennis Thames. Mississippi State Commit.
TX CB Demontre Hurst committed to Oklahoma State, but may still visit the Canes.
FL DB Jonathan Scott picks WVU.
AL LB Tana Patrick is now only considering Bama, Auburn, USC, MIami of Florida, and Tennessee.
FL CB Jayron Hosley is going to USF, whether he has publicly committed (yet) or not.
CA OL Michael Philipp, who hadn’t really been considering Michigan in quite some time, commits to Oregon State.
NC OL Travis Bond picked UNC over Michigan, adding to the ridiculously large recruiting class in Chapel Hill.

SC OL Quinton Washington is one of the few remaining targets that Michigan has a chance with. The Sporting News’ The Recruitnik blog gives an entirely uninformative update on his recruitment. Phil Kornblut says he visits South Carolina, which is Michigan’s main competition for his signature. Considering he came out of that visit not only uncommitted, but also unwilling to say USC was his leader, chances here don’t look dire. However, he did leave the visit “knowing what he wants to do,” which may be bad, considering it probably means “my last visit rulzed.” Regardless, he does not plan to publicly commit until signing day.

LA LB Barkevious Mingo, who visited LSU this weekend, does not plan to commit anywhere until signing day.

LA WR Travante Stallworth is still “committed” to Auburn, but has a top 3 of Michigan, South Carolina, and Auburn. RichRod has his in-home tonight. Stallworth seems a little more effusive about Michigan than his other choices:

“At Michigan, it was different than any other college campus I’ve ever been to,” he continued. “They have outstanding facilities and the academics are top of the line. Coach (Rich) Rodriguez wants me to come in as a slot receiver and even said I could try quarterback. If it didn’t work out, I could switch to receiver. They just want to get the ball in my hands in the open field.”

RR will also be in the home of DE Sam Montgomery, who has taken 2 officials without committing anywhere. He wants to go to business school, which means Michigan is by far the best option out of his current choices in that regard. He’s still going to LSU, Tennessee, and Oregon.

Freep fluff on the visit by PA WR Je’Ron Stokes (along with a general discussion of WR recruiting). If Stokes gets through his PSU visit without committing, Michigan’s chances in this one aren’t bad. Stokes didn’t really appear to be enjoying himself too much at the hoops game though (photo of Darryl Stonum, Stokes, and Jeremy Gallon by Matt Pargoff in the Detroit Free Press).

Tennessee has hopped in on OK DT Commit Pearlie Graves. The likelihood he ends up in Ann Arbor is ever-dwindling.

FL QB Austin Dantin is practically begging for an offer, though if he’s stooping that low this late in the process, that probably means he’s unlikely to get one. He’s added to the board regardless.

The Palm Beach Post ranked the area’s top 25 seniors:

6. Brandin Hawthorne, LB, 6-1, 181, Pahokee, Enrolled at Michigan

8. Vincent Smith, RB, 5-9, 180, Pahokee, Enrolled at Michigan

11. Brendan Gibbons, K, 6-0, 215, Cardinal Newman, Verbal to Michigan

Hooray South Florida guys.

MI QB AJ Westendorp appears likely to accept a scholarship offer at a D-II or DI-AA school, rather than accepting a walk-on offer at Michigan.

…And this update is getting enormous, so I’ll drop the 2010 knowledge on you later this week.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Greg Robinson, recent ex-headman at Syracuse, will reportedly be named Michigan’s Defensive Coordinator. GERG comes to the Wolverines after a failed 4-year stint in upstate New York. Prior to that, he was Texas’s Defensive Coordinator in 2004, preceded by stints with two NFL teams.

NFL DC
Robinson was the Defensive Coordinator of the Denver Broncos from 1995-2000, and served the same position with the Kansas City Chiefs the next 3 years. In Denver, Robinson’s defenses ranged from stellar to middle-of-the-pack. Of course, Robinson won Super Bowls in Denver in 1998 and 1999. His defenses there had a bizarre trend of alternating years being good against the run or against the pass. In Kansas City, Robinson’s defenses could be described as little other than abject failure. The Chiefs organization decided to focus on drafting and exceeding on offense, while somewhat neglecting the defensive side of the ball.

Denver Broncos
Year	Total D	Rush D	Pass D	Scoring D
1995	15	23	9	17
1996	4	1	10	7
1997	5	16	5	7
1998	11	3	26	9
1999	7	19	8	11
2000	24	7	31	23
Kansas City Chiefs
Year	Total D	Rush D	Pass D	Scoring D
2001	23	27	14	23
2002	32	24	31	28
2003	29	30	20	19

Texas DC
Robinson spent only 1 year as the defensive coordinator at Texas, and therefore it is important to compare that year (highlighted in burnt orange below) to the preceding and following year. Robinson slightly improved the defense overall in his year as defensive coordinator, but the year after he left, the defense suddenly became awesome. However, it is important to look at everything in context. The Longhorns’ offense was the Vince Young-led terror in 2005, and in 2004 Young was still developing as a quarterback, giving the opposing offenses more opportunity to possess and move the ball.

Texas
Year	Total D	Rush D	Pass D	Scoring D
2003	25	9	58	6
2004	23	16	58	18
2005	10	33	8	8

Syracuse HC
Following his tenure in Austin, Robinson became the head coach of Syracuse. His 4-year run in upstate New York was terrible (10-37), and it became clear that perhaps his skill set was not cut out to be a college head coach. Robinson was criticized for being a poor communicator and all-but-refusing to take the recruiting aspect of coaching seriously. However, Robinson was sent out with a bang as his Orangemen defeated the heavily-favored Irish of Notre Dame in a snowy affair in November.

Michigan DC
Wolverines fans hope that Robinson’s shortcomings as a head coach do not translate to his ability to be a defensive coordinator in college. His pedigree as an X-and-O guru (the NFL doesn’t hire just anyone, I promise) certainly is welcome. However, ex-DC Scott Shafer, coincidentally the new DC at Syracuse, was also known as a solid defensive theorist, but he was doomed by a lack of chemistry with the existing coaches on Michigan’s staff. If Robinson has similar issues, will Rodriguez realize that maybe his assistants from West Virginia aren’t the best position coaches for Michigan, or will the clocik have run out on his tim in Ann Arbor.

Pros: NFL experience (recruits love it, even if you can’t coach in colege to save your life: see Charlie Weis), history of success in NFL and (briefly) in college as a DC.
Cons: Epic fail as Syracuse HC, poor DC with second NFL squad, reportedly lacks great communication skills, not much of a recruiter, age.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Dan Wetzel on the Rich Rod at Michigan and Nick Saban at Alabama analogy. I’ve done posts before where I analyzed why Michigan’s popular comparisons to other teams was a little off, if not completely bogus. Ohio State 2004=Michigan 2005 was one, and so on. Essentially, the point is that you shouldn’t, on the basis of all the available evidence, expect Michigan’s 2009 season to be the success that Alabama’s ’08 ended up being.

In 2007, Alabama had a season that can only be described as “trying.” In Nick Saban’s first year, the Tide went 7-6, which was not exactly a historical low in comparison to other recent years, but was far from the expectations among fans in Tuscaloosa. However, Saban righted the ship in 2008, blistering out to a 12-0 start before succumbing to Florida in the SEC championship game and finishing 12-2.

Saban, however, had a much better framework in place for second year success than does Michigan (perhaps through no (or little) fault of Rodriguez). First, let’s take a look at the most obvious: the way season 1 turned out:

Saban’s Crimson Tide started 6-2, before losing their next four. In the bowl game, they got a bit of redemption by beating Colorado. Michigan, on the other hand, started 2-4 through the easy part of their schedule. The rest of the year would have been a scramble just to make a bowl game, whereas Saban’s team had one locked up a little more than halfway through the year. Of course, both Rodriguez and Saban failed in their first attempts against the team’s #1 rival in the last game of the regular season. Making a bowl at all, however, is a huge positive for a first-year coach. It establishes a baseline of success, and more importantly, it give him another month to install his system to the team. Rodriguez doesn’t have that luxury, and from the offense’s performance over the course of the year, he could have desperately used it. Alabama, while disappointing, was more ready for success the next year than most acknowledged coming into this season.

Another key factor is that of personnel. Both Rodriguez and Saban fielded fairly young teams in their first year at their respective schools. However, it looks like Saban may have the edge here as well:

Rodriguez will return a redshirt sophomore quarterback who started most of 2008. However, Steven Threet is regarded to be an imperfect fit for the Rodriguez offense, and two highly-touted freshmen are coming in for spring ball, and are expected to challenge for playing time, if not a starting role. Saban, on the other hand, returned a two-year starter (who also got playing time his freshman year) in senior John Parker Wilson. The Tide’s offense also returned four starters along the offensive line. While Michigan also returns several starters along the offensive line, their performance through 2008 certainly indicates that there will be changes, likely including some redshirt freshman starters next year. Alabama had highly-recruited players ready to step in, whereas Michigan lost nearly all of its best linemen (including the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft).

Defensively, the Tide returned few starters in 2008. Two players in the secondary and one each in the linebacking corps and along the defensive line is nothing to champion. Michigan, on the other hand, will likely lose at least 3 of its defensive linemen (the undoubted strength of the team), one linebacker, and its #2 corner. It appears as though Michigan’s defense, though it is looking to experience significant losses, may be depended upon to carry the team again next year. Of course, with a change in the defensive coordinator position, a sense of continuity from the defense cannot carry the team.

Regardless of returning personnel, Saban was more able to recruit immediate help with junior college players, a luxury Rodriguez will have in a much more limited capacity, if at all.

Aside from perhaps John Parker Wilson (a returning multi-year starter at QB – the most important position on the offense) or freshman phenom WR Julio Jones, Alabama’s MVP in 2008 was Terrence “Mount” Cody, a junior college transfer who stepped in and played a huge role for Alabama on the defensive line. Michigan may have some instant-impact players in their 2009 recruiting class, but they are undoubtedly less proven commodities than Cody, and are all but guaranteed to be less productive.

Coaching philosophy plays a role as well. Saban and Rodriguez have their similarities, but there are key fundamental differences as well.

Rodriguez is a believer in his system above all else, and believes he can win with whomever is on his team. Down the road, this may work well, especially once he gets some of his recruits in place. Saban, on the other hand, is a strong believer in “recruit, recruit, recruit” as a method for achieving success. Saban’s philosophy is less dependent on developing players and (especially when combined with the JuCos mentioned above) is more ripe for achieving instant success. Rodriguez’s different philosophy may in fact be more sound for long-term success, but it doesn’t mean the same thing for quick turnarounds that Saban’s does.

Alabama’s 2007 was less difficult than Michigan’s 2008, and the Tide were far more primed for second-year success than are the Wolverines. Don’t expect a miracle turnaround next season in Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Action since last rankings:
1-9-09 Indiana gains commitment from Aaron Price.
1-10-09 Notre Dame loses commitment from Marlon Pollard.
1-11-09 Illinois gains commitment from Walt Aikens.
1-12-09 Wisconsin gains commitment from Conor O’Neal. Purdue gains commitment from Eric Williams.
1-13-09 Michigan State gains commitment from Dion Sims.

Movers & Shakers
The Big Ten has a newly-minted 5-star prospect in Ohio State’s Corey Brown. He had a good Army All-American game (consisting of one big touchdown catch and little else), and Rivals deemed him worthy of the coveted 5th star. Surprisingly, a similar honor was not bestowed upon Michigan’s Justin Turner, who was called by various outlets the top athletic cornerback in attendance, despite being the biggest of all. His physique makes him more of an outlier (in a positive way) at the corner position, and if Rivals ever moves him (as it is painfully clear they should, especially given the distribution of defensive backs in Michigan’s class), he could garner 5-star status there. If you compare Brown to Turner, absolute consensus (save Rival’s rankings) would have Turner far, far ahead of Brown. Notre Dame’s Cierre Wood lost his 5th star, and understandably so, as he looked entirely pedestrian in the Army game. In the Under Armour game, all three of Michigan’s commit had strong showings. I’m surprised to see Isaiah Bell not pick up a 4th star, though I can understand Craig Roh not getting another star (ESPN did, however, move him into the position of #67 prospect in the country). Penn State’s Glen Carson picked up a 4th star, and the remainder of changes were generally unevaluated (1-star) players getting ranked (2- or 3-stars).

New Rankings:

#1 Ohio State – 24 commits
LB	*****	Dorian Bell
CB	*****	Corey Brown
RB	****	Jaamal Berry
DE	****	Melvin Fellows
CB	****	CJ Barnett
WR	****	James Jackson
MLB	****	Storm Klein
MLB	****	Jordan Whiting
RB	****	Jordan Hall
OG	****	Corey Linsley
OT	****	Jack Mewhort
S	****	Jamie Wood
WR	****	Justin Green
RB	****	Carlos Hyde
WR	****	Chris Fields
CB	****	Dominic Clarke
WR	***	Duron Carter
DE	***	Jonathan Newsome
TE	***	Reid Fragel
DT	***	Adam Bellamy
FB	***	Adam Homan
LB	***	Zach Boren
OL	***	Sam Longo
DT	***	Johnny Simon

Up: Corey Brown (from 4*)

#2 Michigan – 20 commits
DT	*****	William Campbell
CB	****	Justin Turner
QB	****	Tate Forcier
OL	****	Taylor Lewan
RB	****	Fitzgerald Toussaint
S	****	Vladimir Emilien
WR	****	Jeremy Gallon
OL	****	Michael Schofield
DT	****	DeQuinta Jones
DE	****	Anthony LaLota
DE	****	Craig Roh
DT	****	Pearlie Graves
WR	****	Cameron Gordon
S	***	Isaiah Bell
RB	***	Teric Jones
S	***	Mike Jones
LB	***	Brandin Hawthorne
RB	***	Vincent Smith
S	***	Thomas Gordon
K	**	Brendan Gibbons

#3 Michigan State – 18 commits
RB	****	Edwin Baker
RB	****	Larry Caper
SLB	****	Chris Norman
OL	****	David Barrent
WR	****	Donald Spencer
DT	****	Blake Treadwell
QB	****	Andrew Maxwell
OL	****	Nate Klatt
LB	****	Jeremy Gainer
TE	****	Dion Sims
WR	***	Dana Dixon
LB	***	Tyquan Hammock
OL	***	Micajah Reynolds
WR	***	Patrick White
DE	***	Dan France
LB	***	Denicos Allen
WR	***	Bennie Fowler
TE	**	Derek Hoebing
DE	**	Corey Freeman

#4 Notre Dame – 17 commits
RB	****	Cierre Wood
WR	****	Shaquelle Evans
OL	****	Chris Watt
RB	****	Theo Riddick
DT	****	Tyler Stockton
OL	****	Alex Bullard
LB	****	Dan Fox
OL	****	Zach Martin
LB	****	Zeke Motta
S	***	Nyshier Oliver
S	***	EJ Banks
TE	***	Tyler Eifert
MLB	***	Carlo Calabrese
P	***	Ben Turk
K	**	Nicholas Tausch
TE	**	Jake Golic
OL	**	Jordan Cowart

Down: Cierre Wood (From 5*). Up: Jordan Cowart (From 1*)

#5 Penn State – 23 commits
QB	****	Kevin Newsome
LB	****	Gerald Hodges
OT	****	Eric Shrive
CB	****	Darrell Givens
DE	****	Sean Stanley
S	****	Derrick Thomas
LB	****	Glenn Carson
S	***	Stephen Obeng-Agyapong
S	***	Malcolm Willis
C	***	Ty Howle
CB	***	Stephon Morris
WR	***	Brandon Felder
OT	***	Adam Gress
OL	***	Nate Cadogan
RB	***	Curtis Dukes
ATH	***	Devon Smith
K	***	Anthony Fera
QB	**	Curtis Drake
OG	**	Frank Figueroa
WR	**	Christian Kuntz
OT	**	Mark Arcidiacono
DE	**	Garry Gilliam
DE	**	Jordan Hill

Up: Glenn Carson (From 3*)

#6 Illinois – 20 commits
WR	****	Kraig Appleton
DT	****	Lendell Buckner
OT	****	Leon Hill
QB	****	Nathan Scheelhaase
RB	****	Bud Golden
WR	****	Terry Hawthorne
DE	****	Craig Drummond
OL	***	Jamar Bass
OL	***	Andrew Carter
OL	***	Aaron Gress
FB	***	Greg Fuller
OL	***	Hugh Thornton
DT	***	Tank Carradine
WR	***	Steve Hull
S	***	Tommie Hopkins
CB	**	Joelil Thrash
OL	**	Jake Feldmeyer
LB	**	Darryl Lee
TE	**	Justin Lattimore
DE	**	Tom Kynard
Ath	**	Walt Aikens

Up: Tommie Hopkins (From 2*), Tom Kynard (From 1*)

#7 Wisconsin – 18 commits
DT	****	Jared Kohout
DE	****	Shelby Harris
DE	****	David Gilbert
RB	****	Montee Ball
LB	***	Conor O’Neill
DE	***	Tyler Dippel
OG	***	Ryan Groy
QB	***	Jon Budmayr
OT	***	Zac Matthias
TE	***	Brian Wozniak
MLB	***	Chris Borland
OL	***	Travis Frederick
LB	***	AJ Fenton
WR	***	Jeff Duckworth
DE	***	Pat Muldoon
OL	**	Casey Dehn
S	**	Jason Peprah
CB	**	Darious Thomas
DT	**	Conor O’Neal

Wisconsin has 2 commits with the same name. How’s that for a mindtrip?

#8 Minnesota – 19 commits
RB	****	Hasan Lipscomb
WR	****	Hayo Carpenter
CB	****	Taikwon Paige
QB	***	Moses Alipate
C	***	Ed Olsen
OT	***	Josh Campion
WR	***	Victor Keise
OL	***	Brooks Michel
LB	***	Kendell Gregory-McGhee
DB	***	Kerry Lewis
TE	***	Ra’Shede Hageman
DT	***	Joey Searcy
DE	***	Matt Garin
OL	***	Jeff Wills
S	***	Kenny Watkins
Ath	***	Bryant Allen
LB	***	Brent Singleton
DE	**	Nick Rengel
K	**	Dan Orseske

#9 Indiana – 14 commits
QB	***	Edward Wright-Baker
DT	***	Adam Replogle
WR	***	Jamonne Chester
WR	***	Duwyce Wilson
OL	***	Charles Chapman
QB	***	Dustin Kiel
OL	***	Colin Rodkey
CB	***	Lawrence Barnett
K	***	Mitch Ewald
S	***	Nick Zachery
S	***	Demetrius Carr
S	***	Ted Bolser
OL	***	Pat McShane
DE	**	Javon Cornley
OL	**	Aaron Price

#10 Northwestern – 16 commits
OL	****	Patrick Ward
QB	***	Evan Watkins
RB	***	Mike Trumpy
DE	***	Anthony Battle
LB	***	Will Studlien
OL	***	Taylor Paxton
DB	***	Davion Fleming
RB	***	Arby Fields
LB	***	Roderick Goodlow
OL	**	Brian Smith
WR	**	Drew Moulton
LB	**	Tim Riley
LB	**	Tyler Scott
DE	**	John Plasencia
K	**	Jeff Budzein
S	**	Cooper Gerami

Up: Cooper Gerami (From 1*).

#11 Purdue – 17 commits
RB	****	Al-Terek McBurse
DT	***	Eric McDaniel
DE	***	Shayon Green
TE	***	Gabrison Holmes
WR	***	Xavier Reese
DE	***	Antwon Higgs
WR	***	Eric Williams
DT	**	Cody Davis
DE	**	Trevor Foy
S	**	Ishmael Aristide
WR	**	Gary Bush
QB	**	Rob Henry
WR	**	Josh Johnson
DT	**	Brandon Taylor
DB	**	Chris Quinn
DT	**	Xavier Melton
DE	**	Justin Kitchens
QB	*	Najee Tyler

Up: Najee Tyler (From 1).

#12 Iowa – 12 commits
WR	****	Keenan Davis
RB	****	Brandon Wegher
WR	***	Jordan Cotton
FB	***	Brad Rogers
OL	**	Drew Clark
DT	**	Scott Covert
OL	**	Brett Van Sloten
TE	**	Anthony Schiavone
LB	**	Tyler Harrell
LB	**	Shane DiBona
LB	**	Martin Hopkins
CB	**	Joshua Brown

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Ohio State	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. OSU eFG% D	106	63	O
Mich eFG% D v. OSU eFG%	113	71	O
Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%	3(!)	99	M
Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%	151	65	O
Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%	248	157	O
Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%	196	265	M
Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR	302	7	OO
Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR	14	85	M
Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD	24	33	–
Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO	120	69	O

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Ohio State is a pretty good team, despite not getting a ton of love from the polls right now. Their offense depends on hitting their shots, and the defense is reliant on forcing opponents to miss their shots, as well as getting them to turn it over. Surprisingly, they don’t have a huge rebounding advantage over the Wolverines like I would have expected. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-64 Michigan win in a 62-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 59% chance of winning the game.

Ohio State has had a rash of injuries and player defections this year, making them somewhat thin (depth-wise) outside the paint. Inside the paint, they have 7-1 freshman BJ Mullens. If the Illinois game is any indication, Michigan should have plenty of trouble matching up with Ohio State’s men inside. Fortunately, the Buckeyes don’t have nearly the depth in big men (the next tallest player is 6-9, and Kyle Madsen gets very little playing time). The most-used players for Ohio State are Evan Turner and Jon Diebler, two sophomores who play nearly the entire game for OSU each time out.

The Wolverines face another tough battle, and hopefully the home-court advantage can propel them to a win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Recruiting Boards (2009 & 2010) can be found anytime in the left sidebar.

LA DT Commit DeQuinta Jones visited Arkansas last weekend, and seemingly enjoyed himself.

Jones is set to visit Michigan this weekend and plans to visit either Mississippi State or Ole Miss the following weekend. He said he isn’t certain when he’ll make a decision.

“I might wait until signing day and surprise a lot of people.” Jones said.

Given the conventional wisdom regarding his recruitment, a reaffirmation of his Michigan commitment might be the most surprising thing possible. I’m still super-leery of a guy who is (nominally) committed being unsure of when he’ll make a decision.

Michigan and Florida are likely to be the final 2 for FL QB Denard Robinson. Florida is out in the lead, but the Wolverines are making a strong push:

One interesting dynamic could be his teammate, defensive back Adrian Witty, who will visit Florida on the weekend of Jan. 23. Kansas State is offering the pair the chance to play together on the next level, and Michigan may follow suit. If that happens, especially in the case of the Wolverines, it will be interesting to se e if the temptation to play alongside his high school teammate proves too much for Robinson to pass up. That said, I still feel Florida is the team to beat here.

Michigan has indeed offered Witty (by far his biggest offer), so that could certainly help with Robinson. The two had (and enjoyed) their official visit to Ann Arbor last weekend. If Witty doesn’t get offered by Florida, that would be a very good thing for Michigan. There’s also a mini-scouting report on Denard:

One other quick note on Robinson: Photographer Tim Casey and I visited him at practice for the Dade-Broward All-Star Game this weekend, he certainly has a big-time arm. While his size isn’t the greatest (even 6-0 might be a little generous), Robinson is an incredible athlete and deserves every opportunity to play the position on the next level.

Speaking of Witty, Michigan has stopped recruiting 2009 FL CB Jayron Hosley. They apparently feel good enough about cornerback recruiting to take a pass on Hosley, which means they probably feel that they are likely to land Witty, or are likely to offer other prospects that they like their chances with.

Michigan’s last couple (realistic) offensive line recruits for the 2009 class are thick in their recruitments. NC OL Travis Bond visited ECU last weekend, and the author of that article strangely thinks it’s a foregone conclusion that Bond will eventually be committing to the Pirates. I don’t think that’s even close to the case. According to MGoBlog’s TomVH, Bond will announce next week. SC OL Quinton Washington has all sorts of visits going on, and Rich Rodriguez will visit his house next week.

2009 LA WR Travante Stallworth was an official visitor last weekend, and he offered a bit of reaction to Phil Kornblut:

“The Michigan trip went pretty well,” Stallworth said. “I liked the coaches and players. Everything was top of the line with the facilities. And the academics, I liked that, too.”

He enjoyed the visit enough that the Wolverines have pulled even with the schools at the forefront of his recruitment (info in header).

Miami of Florida is the favorite for 2009 TX CB Demontre Hurst. He’s apparently become a hot prospect of late, as several schools seem to have ratcheted up the intensity on him. I would be surprised if he ended up committing to Michigan.

2009 FL LB Mike Marry doesn’t sound like he’ll be visiting Michigan, and he is close to being crossed off the old list. He has visits to Ole Miss, USF, and Duke.

Added to the 2010 board: IL LB Rickey Simpson. He is “Hearing from several.” Hmm, that article was posted on the front page of the Michigan Scout affiliate. I wonder if the Wolverines are one of the teams in contact with him. Info, quite obviously, in header.

2010 FL WR Chris Dunkley has received an offer from Miami. Michigan offered in the fall, but the Canes at least have a hometown advantage.

2010 TX DT Jay Guy has reportedly been offered by Michigan (info in header).

Despite apparently growing up a Michigan fan, 2010 OH RB Erick Howard (the state’s Mr. Football for the 2008 season) currently favors Ohio State (info in header). Obviously, Michigan has some time to make up the gap.

2010 FL CB Lorenza Wood has received his Michigan offer, and the Wolverines have long been his established favorite. Might he pick the maize-and-blue soon?

Posted under Football, Recruiting