Recruiting Boards, as always, are here:
2009 & 2010
and in the sidebar to the left.

Standard RichRod recruiting fluff from the Freep.

This is a little late, but Shavodrick Beaver has been moved from committed and completely removed from the board in the wake of his bizarre decommitment to Tulsa. His player page has been removed from the 2009 Commit HQ (also available to the left).

So what’s the upshot for the rest of the class from the Beaver commitment? Most likely a more intense focus on FL QB Denard Robinson, the only remaining quarterback on the board. The Sun-Sentinel had some kind things to say about his fit in the Michigan offense, and mentions his upcoming visit (more on that in a moment). The header of a Scout article by Allen Wallace is a little more specific:

Denard Robinson still plans to visit Michigan on Jan. 9, Kansas State on Jan. 16 and Central Florida on Jan. 23. “I like Michigan because the old coaches from West Virginia are there,” Robinson said. “Coach Rich Rodriguez is trying to install his system there and I think I’d be a good fit. They need a good dual-threat quarterback like me. I won’t be making a final decision until after my visits.”

…so it certainly sounds like Michigan is much more involved than they were a couple weeks ago, and are back to recruiting Robinson as a QB. Finally, there’s another Scout article, entitled “Is U-M near the top for Robinson?” This is the type of teaser to which the answer is almost always “yes.”

If Michigan doesn’t land Denard Robinson, there’s a good chance that guys like Tajh Boyd, Eugene Smith, and Raymond Cotton come back into play.

…and while we’re up in arms about who will fill the second QB slot, don’t forget about the quarterback still committed in this class. Tate Forcier was recently interviewed on WDFN (audio | transcript). What did he have to say about Beaver?

It didn’t really phase me, I wasn’t worried about him. I knew I was going to have to come in and compete regardless of whether it was against him or against Threet. Him leaving it didn’t phase me.

He’s also ready to go at Michigan, having already enrolled (as detailed here earlier this week), and he’s ready to learn and help Michigan win:

I’m actually heading out there in less than two weeks. Right away right when I get out there, coach Smith and coach Rodriguez both told me I’m going to be spending most of my time with them learning that playbook. And with coach Barwis getting me prepared for next season – that’s the main goal right now, to get ready and hope to lead Michigan to a good season next year.

And how is he going to help Michigan win?

I have everything you want in a quarterback. I’m not the tallest guy, but I know how to get the job done. I have a feel for the game. I feel the pressure. I have a great feel for everything. I have great arm strength. I have good enough speed. Overall it’s just the balance of me as a quarterback. I’m not over the top on anything, but that’s what the Michigan coaches are going to try to get me to do – be the best of the best… My goal is to be a little bit like Colt McCoy. It’s almost nearly the same size and speed. It’s possible I may have a stronger arm than him. That’s kind of a lot to say, but I think if I worked hard I could maybe follow in his footsteps and be the type of quarterback that he is.

And that should be just about everything in regards to 2009. Let’s stick with the quarterbacks theme, however, and move along to 2010.

Sometime early next week, I should (finally) have some video up of 2010 MI QB Devin Gardner‘s performance in theDivision III State Championship game (and of course, some film on his teammate, Michigan commit Cameron Gordon, but that doesn’t really fit with the QB theme, now does it?). Look forward to that somewhere within the next round of updates.

Virginia Tech’s inability to land Kevin Newsome this year may lead them to more heavily pursue another local product next year, in Phillip Sims. Despite his good speed, Sims insists that he wantas to be looked at as a pro-style QB. His current schools of interest (including UVa, BC, and Tennessee) seems to bear that out. Hell remain on the board until he says he’s no longer interested in the Wolverines or a spread offense.

Speaking of other QB prospects Michigan may be a little behind in recruiting, 2010 OH QB Spencer Ware will likely end up at a different position in college, but he’s an electifying athlete either way that Michigan would certainly love to have. The current list for Ware is Ohio State, some SEC schools (including Georgia, his favorite), then a bunch of slightly lesser-tiered schools (including the hometown Bearcats).

…and before I wrap up the QBs-only edition of the Recruiting Update, I may as well take care of a couple things not related to signal-callers:
Removed 2009 MD DE/LB Jason Ankrah. He has committed to Nebraska.
Removed 2009 PA LB Dan Mason, who will choose between Pitt, WVU, and Penn State.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Allow me to quote myself for a second here:

Snyder also reports that Rodriguez expects 8 early-enrolling recruits from the class of ‘09. Those would be Tate Forcier, Shavodrick Beaver, Vincent Smith, William Campbell if he re-commits, Anthony LaLota, Brandin Hawthorne, Mike Jones, and Vlad Emilien.

OK, not that I’ve been compulsively checking the student directory to see if these guys have enrolled (I have), but the first early returns are in. Umich e-mail addresses have been created thus far for Robert Forcier (Tate), Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne, Vlad Emilien, and… William Campbell? Of course, “William Campbell is not exactly the least common name in the world, but the address was created yesterday, along with all the other ones so far. Even the Michigan Daily found its creation notable.

Of the other three early-enrollment candidates, Shavodrick Beaver will obviously no longer be enrolling at Michigan ever, much less early, and there have not yet been e-mail addresses created for LaLota or Jones.

Early Christmas presents so far? It sounds like it.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

It’s been rumored for quite some time, but the Athletic Department confirmed today that freshman center Ben Cronin will redshirt and miss the remainder of the 2008-09 season:

University of Michigan men’s basketball coach John Beilein announced today (Tuesday, Dec. 23) freshman center Ben Cronin (Syracuse, N.Y./Henninger HS) will miss the remainder of the 2008-09 season following surgery on his left hip.

The surgery, performed by Dr. Jon K. Sekiya, is scheduled for Wednesday, Jan. 14, at the University of Michigan Medical Center. Cronin will be out five to six months due to recovery and rehabilitation.

“After discussing Ben’s condition with his family and the U-M medical staff we have decided surgery is the appropriate action,” said Beilein. “Even though it is a setback, Ben has been fantastic with his attitude and his determination to get healthy as soon as he is able to rejoin the team.”

“It’s a disappointment I will not be able to practice and help this team get better, but I know this surgery is the best option for me right now,” said Cronin. “I am excited to get healthy and put this hip issue behind me. I am going to take it slow, but I know I will be working as hard as I can over the next five to six months to be ready for next season.”

Cronin is one of four newcomers to the Wolverines this season after he averaged 12.6 points, 11.7 rebounds and 7.2 blocks per game at Henninger High School. After missing most of the preseason with the hip injury, Cronin has seen limited action this season playing in just two games.

Cronin will play next year as a redshirt freshman, with one year (while healthy) to learn under the tutelage of DeShawn Sims and Zach Gibson.

Posted under Basketball, Personnel

As always, the recruiting boards can be found directly to the left or right here:
2009 & 2010.

The first-draft Scout 100 for 2010 has been released. Obviously it will change a ton even before signing day, but certainly by the time any of these guys sign anywhere. For now, it’s just a helpful way to see who some prospects might be (of course, remember some of these guys will completely disappear, and some will merely be replaced by other guys).

Recent indications have been that 2009 OL Quinton Washington might be leaning to Michigan. Might he now be looking towards South Carolina as his favorite? I’m not familiar with the source, so take that FWIW. At least he’s not claiming a favorite.

From the same article:
MN WR Bryce McNeal‘s decision will be announced at the Army game. Obviously, I wouldn’t expect said decision to be for Michigan. SC DE Sam Montgomery‘s official visit will be some time in January, and FL CB Jayron Hosley‘s will be January 17th.

Not that I ever though Michigan had a chance with him, but maybe things are less dire than it seems with 2009 AL CB Dre Kirkpatrick? Michigan has been out to visit him, and it sounds like there might be a chance he’ll return the favor to Ann Arbor.

2009 FL K Commit Brendan Gibbons‘s high school coach is retiring, and there is one item of note:

He coached 29 All-State players and three All-Americans (Davey Ford, 1996; Abram Elam, 1999; and Brendan Gibbons, 2008), and 11 of his former players are playing college football.

Cardinal Newman is not much of a huge pipeline, for what it’s worth. Hooray Brendan, though.

Scouting report on 2010 TX QB Aaron Johnson, including season stats:

Quarterback Aaron Johnson is only 82 yards away from topping the 1,000-yard mark [rushing] for the season… The Lobos can throw; Johnson has passed for 1,505 yards and 15 TDs, but has been intercepted seven times.

So, he’s productive, but perhaps not as accurate as one might hope? Take from it what you will. Also, in today’s “non-relevant information” department, take a look at the weightlifting facility of Lake Travis, the team Longview will be playing this weekend. Yes, that is a high school. Also, here are some highlights of last week’s Longview game.

Want some fluff on 2010 FL WR/S Eric Dungy? It’s your lucky day! Standard “he doesn’t have an ego despite having an NFL coach for a dad” stuff.

Removed 2010 OH LB/DE Jamel Turner. He has committed to Ohio State, giving them a good start for a second consecutive year.

Another recruiting post will be coming within a couple days, because there’s a lot more information to share.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison  (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Obviously I don’t want this to become a recruiting-only site (and there is a recruiting update coming sometime today or tomorrow, though I foresee there being at least one post and likely two about the Oakland basketball game), but when something big happens, I think it’s important to address. This, obviously, is considered a big event.

After assuring everyone who would listen that he was firmly committed to Michigan, and would consider no other schools, Shavodrick Beaver pulled the old bait-and-switch on us all Friday, and decommitted from Michigan, giving his verbal pledge to Tulsa. That is correct, Shavodrick Beaver picked a Conference-USA team over one of the most storied programs in college football history.

Why did he do it?

So what could have possibly been Beaver’s motivation for changing his commitment? Rumors (and many of them complete guesses) have been thrown around from all corners of the internet, and nobody really knows which are true and which aren’t. One of the prevailing theories is that he wants to be closer to his mom, or his mom gave him no choice but to go somewhere closer to home. That may be the case, but then why not go somewhere closer? His original runner-up to Michigan was TCU. The Horned Frogs are based in Fort Worth, much closer to Wichita Falls than Tulsa is. Regardless, that factor may have been an issue in his commitment to Michigan sticking.

Another issue may have been the fact that he would have likely started – on account of his shoulder surgery – stuck behind Tate Forcier on the depth chart.Perhaps Beaver didn’t see a situation in which he would ever be able to play, being slotted behind a guy in his own class, with other guys coming in the future. The final theory is related to the first, and holds that he didn’t want the pressure of playing in a bigtime program, choosing instead to head to Conference-USA, where he could be a big-time player without the pressure of being in a program expecting big-time success. The one theory that doesn’t really make much sense is that the Michigan staff cut him loose. Despite his comments that the Tulsa coaches made him feel more like a member of the family (which every recruit has been saying about Michigan, as well), I think the Michigan coaching staff would have had a better contingency plan in place if they had any idea a decommitment was on the way.

As another side note, regardless of what those “in the know” say, almost nobody saw this coming (except perhaps the coaches themselves). Any retroactive “well I knew this was going to happen” is simply revisionist history, since just last week, most recruiting experts were trying to assure everyone that Beaver was still solid, and that the comments on his MySpace page were nothing to worry about. Being blindsided by an event like this is nothing to be ashamed of, and one shouldn’t rewrite history to give the appearance of seeing this sort of event come to fruition.

Short-Term Trouble

The 2009 recruiting class has suddenly gone from greatly shoring up a major position of need, with two 4-star quarterback commits, to still needing another body, much less a great player, to even come close to filling the numbers necessary to field a team at the position. Now, Threet and Sheridan are the only options other than Forcier, and if any of the three goes down, regardless of who was the starter, there is already a depth issue arising. The coaching staff will need to find another quarterback in this class, simply in case one or more of the existing QBs gets injured this year. That said, they will likely go with a player with very good running ability and a passing game that needs some work. That way, there is potential for a move to the defensive backfield or slot receiver if the numbers at QB look better in the future.

Might we see Justin Feagin playing a little bit at the QB position (instead of moving to slot, as had been announced) in 2009? It’s not likely, unless the Wolverines can’t pull in another QB/Ath in the class of ’09. Another bummer from the Beaver situation is that Michigan will now go from two quarterbacks enrolling early to one enrolling early, with another hopefully coming in the fall. The preparedness of the group as a whole will undoubtedly be decreased.

Long-Term Ramifications

Without Beaver in the class of 2009, what are the effects on the Wolverines down the road (that is, further in the future than the 2009 season)? It appears likely that whoever they pick up to fill the other QB slot in the 2009 class will likely move to slot or defensive back down the road, when the numbers get back up to where they should be. That give Michigan much better spacing between classes at the QB position, as there won’t be many in a single class. This means the Wolverines are less likely to graduate all their players at the position in a single year, jeopardizing future years.

That takes us to future recruiting classes. Only having one true QB in the class of 2009 certainly makes Michigan more attractive to signal-callers in the class of 2010, namely one Devin Gardner, an in-state product who has great potential as a run-pass threat in this offensive system. Gardner will likely be rated a high-4 or 5-star prospect, and rated more highly than either Tate Forcier or Shavodrick Beaver (of course, there’s the little issue that he won’t be able to play for Michigan until the 2010 season holding him back from being the current #1 target). Though the Beaver situation is unfortunate, it may help Michigan in the long run, provided the Wolverines aren’t completely screwed short-term.

So What Does It All Mean?

Decommitments are almost never a good thing. They provide ammo for an inexplicably-ruthless local press, and open the door to negative recruiting pitches from other schools. This particular decommitment particularly hurts Michigan, especially in the short term. As an aside, I don’t understand why Beaver had to speak ill of Michigan, considering he didn’t seem to harbor any ill will, he’s just hurting the coaches who have done nothing but good for him. In the long run, Michigan will go on. Might the 2009 season suffer because of a lack of QB depth? Perhaps, but the long-term picture is changed very little, and the Michigan Wolverines will go on without Shavodrick Beaver.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Action since last rankings:
12-14-08 Michigan gains commitment from Taylor Lewan. Minnesota gains commitment from Jeff Wills. Minnesota gains commitment from Kenny Watkins.
12-15-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Roderick Goodlow.
12-16-08 Penn State gains commitment from Kevin Newsome.
12-17-08 Illinois gains commitment from Aaron Gress. Purdue gains commitment from Al-Terek McBurse.
12-18-08 Indiana loses commitment from Jeremy Gainer. Michigan State gains commitment from Jeremy Gainer. Minnesota gains commitment from Bryant Allen. Purdue gains commitment from Antwon Higgs.
12-19-08 Michigan loses commitment from Shavodrick Beaver. Purdue gains commitment from Najee Tyler.
12-20-08 Illinois gains commitment from Tom Kynard. Minnesota gains commitment from Brent Singleton.

Huge week of action, at least partially because I got a little behind in moving to the new site. Regardless, there are some shakeups in the rankings as Penn State flies by Illinois, Minnesota passes Wisconsin, and Purdue is no longer in last(!). Indiana is heading in the wrong direction, as they’ve been absolutely hemorrhaging recruits lately.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

So… this was unexpected.  After assuring the staffs of Scout and Rivals that his commitment was solid, he announces that he’s commiting to Tulsa and disconnects his phone.

There are other quarterbacks in this class that will be getting a call from the staff, most notably Florida QBs Denard Robinson and Eugene Smith. Rich Rodriguez and Co. will definitely try to sign a second someone.

I’m not sure if we’re into full panic mode, but it’s a shock to lose a recruit to Tulsa. But hey, we have had a lot firsts this year. They’ll find someone else, and if nothing else, this will help Michigan’s chances with Devin Gardner.

Posted under Recruiting

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

On Saturday at 6, Michigan will return to the hardcourt, this time taking on the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland at the Palace of Auburn Hills. How do the teams match up? Let’s take a look at the tempo-free analysis and Pomeroy Ratings (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

Things look to be pretty slanted in Michigan’s favor, and Pomeroy’s prediction agrees: he sees Michigan winning 79-64 in a 62-possession game. According to Ken, the Wolverines have a 92% chance of winning.

One thing to look for in this game: Oakland’s defensive efficiency is correlated with how well opponents shoot the ball, and Michigan’s offensive efficiency is strongly correlated with how well they shoot the ball. Looking at the chart above, Michigan looks to have a good shooting night against the Grizzlies – which can help lead them to victory.

Oakland’s key players are point guards Johnathon Jones and Eric Kangas, along with big man (6-11) Keith Benson. Jones almost never comes off the court (2nd nationally in minutes played), and he and Kangas account for much of the team’s offense – including Jones leading the squad in assists. Benson has gone to the stripe 48 times this year (perhaps because he is only making 62.5% of free throws), and is shooting .575 from the field.

One other thing to keep in mind: the Oakland game will also be the debut of one Laval Lucas-Perry in a Michigan uniform. It should be interesting to see how LLP affects the overall chemistry and production of the team. One thing is for sure: It will be nice to have another solid combo guard to fill in at the 1 & 2 spots, decreasing the minutes that are occupied by former walk-ons.

Go Blue!

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Other Sports

Yeah, so obviously this one was supposed to be published before the one that came out earlier this week, but oh well. On to the information.
Recruiting Boards:
2009 & 2010. These are also always available if you look directly to the left.

Moved to Committed:
2009 MI WR Cameron Gordon. Commit article.
2009 AZ OL Taylor Lewan.

Moved from Committed:
2009 IN LB Jordan Barnes. From the sounds of it, he isn’t going to give Michigan a ton of consideration going forward after his decommit. He has been removed from the board.

Also removed from the board: 2009 VA QB Kevin Newsome, who has committed to Penn State.

Added to the 2010 recruiting board: AL WR BJ Chitty, a recent Auburn decommit (audio)

Might 2010 FL RB Corvin Lamb be favoring FIU?:

The kid you’re thinking about, Northwestern High’s Corvin Lamb, a junior, who has not committed to FIU just yet.

Uh, what? If FIU were to land this kid (likely a top-100 type), it would be something of a major coup. I guess stranger things have happened, so be on the lookout. However, other sources indicate he’s a big Florida fan. That makes a little more sense, considering it’s not crazy.

2009 OH S Commit Isaiah Bell will likely end up at linebacker at Michigan (info in header). Obviously, this stems from what the coaches have told him is his likely position here, though I guess that could theoretically mean a bandit-type position if there is indeed a coordinator change.

Among those visiting Florida last weekend was 2009 MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Michigan is in the mix to get one of his remaining official visits. Word on the street, however, is that he’s all but committed to the Gators, with Penn State as the only likely challenger remaining.

2009 JC DE Pernell McPhee enjoyed his official visit. So much, that he has now proclaimed he favors UM over Miss State. Oddly for a kid from Florida (via Mississippi), he likes the cold and snow, and he also enjoyed himself at the hoops game. He’s still nominally committed to Mississippi State, so he remains off the board for now, but UM might be right in this one. The JC signing period started yesterday, and he has not signed an LOI anywhere.

New offers? New offers:

“Michigan assistant coach Jay Hopson was in Coushatta, La., recently to check out one of the Bayou State’s top rising prospects – Red River defensive end Bennie Logan. After U-M’s evaluation, Logan had an offer from Michigan. Assistant coaches also extended offers to Tallahassee (Fla.) FAMU defensive end Alex Williams and Lancaster, Texas, cornerback Demontre Hurst on recent visits to their schools.”

Logan had already been added to the board. Williams will be added, and Hurst re-added after he was on it briefly earlier this year.

2010 FL LB Anthony Hamm really, really likes Florida. He’s now teetering on the edge of removal, and it sounds like he’ll commit to the Gators soon anyway.

Want to know who else sounds like a lost cause? 2010 Pahokee DT Doral Willis. When an article is entitled “I Would Commit to Miami on the Spot,” he’s pretty much a done deal, assuming the ‘Canes offer. I’ll leave him on the board for now, in case they don’t.

Posted under Recruiting