This sucks.

Rationally I knew it was likely that Michigan would lose. This isn’t a good team. The offensive line is inexperienced and constituted mainly of middling recruits. The wide receivers included James Rogers and Zion Babb. A ton of the big contributors are injured or nicked up.

There’s a brand new offense that’s different, scary and wildly inconsistent. The defense is having growing pains learning a new scheme. Sometimes they look amazing, and other times they look confused.

There’s no reason to expect big things. Hume disproved the principle of the uniformity of nature. Just because Michigan has been consistently good does not guarantee that Michigan will be good in the future.

I know Rich Rodriguez will mold this team into a something amazing. He is a winner everywhere he goes. Michigan has a great base and program to support the team. All evidence points to greener fields ahead. The 2009 class (as of now) looks to be elite. The 2010 class will likely be better. Something good is around the corner.

Sparty tried to give Michigan the game. They did not play well. They left a ton of points on the field. Michigan got a very dubious call in their favor (how the Hell was Minor in bounds?). Michigan is just not good enough to capitalize. Rationally I know this season shouldn’t be evaluated in wins and losses. Michigan fans need to take their medecine and look forward to the future.

But irrationally, this sucks.

Posted under Football

Action since last rankings:
10-19-08 Minnesota gains commitment from Kendell Gregory-McGhee.
10-22-08 Michigan loses commitment from Anthony Fera. Penn State gains commitment from Anthony Fera. omg snake oil

New Rankings:

Posted under Football

Beat State.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Michigan State in the summer, I really wasn’t that enamored with the Spartans. Watching them over the course of the year, they have had moderate success, which may seem to run counter to what I thought about the team. However, in their biggest games, Michigan State has failed to impress anyone. Essentially, they are who we thought they were.

Talking with State News writer Cash Kruth, my opinion of the Spartans still remains pretty much the same: they are a mediocre team, not a good one. Their strength of schedule speaks to this, and against real competition, they have struggled for the most part. Of course, a mediocre team should be able to beat a bad one, namely the Michigan Wolverines.

Offense
The Spartan offense is centered around one player: Javon Ringer. Ringer leads the nation in rushing yardage, with 1179 yards so far this year (Donald Brown of Connecticut has 1174 yards in one fewer game), and he runs for about 150 yards per Spartan contest. The offense is heavily reliant on Ringer, and in his two worst contests, the Spartans have lost for the only two times this season. It is important to note of Ringer, however, that he has 60 more carries than the next-closest player in Division 1-A. He has the lowest yards-per-carry average (4.48) of any player in the top 40 in rushing yardage, and most have him beat by a significant margin.

So why do the Spartans run Ringer so often, if they’re not reaping great benefits every time? Looking at Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, the wideouts, you’d think that MSU would pass it more. However, when you approach the situation under center, you realize that Brian Hoyer is often as much a liability for Michigan State as he is an asset. Despite having fairly good weapons, including Javon Ringer to take off some of the pressure, Brian Hoyer is 72nd in the country in passing efficiency. This is all despite rarely getting sacked.

So Michigan has a gameplan for beating Michigan State: stop Javon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to beat you. He hasn’t been able to single-handedly take down a team yet (his best opportunity, at Cal, saw him complete less than 42% of his passes) and is unlikely to suddenly start doing so. Michigan has already beaten a team of this mold, and Wisconsin had a significantly better offensive line, a wider variety of options at running back, and a more robust over-the-middle passing game, which thus far has been Michigan’s biggest problem in coverage.

One other thing to note about the Spartan offense is the turnover rate. As much as Michigan has coughed the ball up this year, Michigan State has had troubles of their own, especially when Hoyer is forced to throw the ball (6-4 TD-int ratio). They had 3 fumbles lost against Ohio State, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.

Defense
MSU’s defense has been at best okay, though strength of schedule again comes into play. Indiana scored their most points of the season against D-1A competition against MSU (29), Cal their third most (38, though the other two higher scores were against Washington State and Colorado State), but they gave up season-lows in point total to Notre Dame (7) and Florida Atlantic (0). The Atlantic game may have been something of an outlier, as their pass-happy attack was unlikely to find success in a monsoon regardless of who they were playing, but results speak for themselves.

The strength of Michigan’s offense is the pass game, like the strength of MSU’s defense is pass effeiciency. However, despite Michigan’s obvious offensive struggles this year, the Wolverine pass game may be one of the best the Spartans have faced so far. If nothing else, there is the biggest array of receiving talent this side of OSU, and if Steven Threet is healthy, the passer shouldn’t be too shabby. Of course, this all goes to hell if Nick Sheridan has to play any significant time. MSU’s secondary is strongest at the safeties (if you consider any position where Kendell Davis Clark is a starter a “strength” – though I admit I haven’t extensively seen him play at safety), so Michigan should have some ability to attack the perimeter on the sideline passes and wheel routes that have thus far been their most successful plays already.

In the run game, Michigan State has no been so successful on the defensive side of the ball. Cal and Ohio State went for over 200 on them, even Eastern Michigan went for 127, Shonn Greene of Iowa tore them up for 157, and only Notre Dame had a really bad day against them, which was partially due to the Spartans getting an early lead, followed immediately by Jimmy Clausen taking 4 bad sacks. The Irish put up only 16 yards rushing, though that came on merely 22 attempts (including sacks). Michigan might be the most anemic rushing attack that MSU has faced so far this season, but the Spartans have shown that, given the chance, a run game can succeed against them.

Michigan’s gameplan will likely be to get the ball to the outside, and get playmakers in space. However, when the run game came to life a bit in the first quarter against Penn State, we saw that Brandon Minor, for all his fumbling troubles, may give Michigan an oportunity to actually move the ball without throwing. A healthy mix of plays, and passing to set up the run a bit, may speak to Michigan’s advantage. As I said earlier this week, Michigan’s offense this year might not be as good as West Virginia’s ever was under Rich Rodriguez, but the man certainly knows how to gash a Dantonio defense either way. He might be able to scheme to keep that trend going.

Predictions
The Michigan offense will reach a new season high in terms of total yardage.
Martavious Odoms will get his first touchdown as a Wolverine.
The Michigan defense or special teams will score on their own, or at least get the ball on Michigan State’s side of the 50 for the offense.
There will be at least 2 “Sparty, No” moments.
Michigan wins, 28-20.

Posted under Football

One of the most convenient things about Youngstown, Ohio, is the fact that it resides directly next to I-80. I-80, you may realize, is the route taken from Ann Arbor to State College. How perfect, then, that Youngstown Liberty Leopards, who boast two Michigan commits on their football team, had a home game at their stadium (from which you can literally see I-80), on the night before Michigan’s game at Penn State?

Being the enterprising Michigan fans/bloggers/general creeps that we are, Paul and I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to take in a game starring Fitzgerald Toussaint and Isaiah Bell. Want to hear more? Well, read on…

The game began at 7, but we arrived shortly after 6. The stadium was your general high school type, with a set of aluminum bleachers for both the home and away fans. We were among the first people there, so we tested out the camera, looked around, and practiced signing our names with the last name “Toussaint.” During warmups, Fitzgerald Toussaint was one of the team captains. In fact, throughout the night, he seemed to be a real leader of his team.

By the time the game began, we were pumped and ready to see Fitz destroy all comers. Essentially, the story of the night is that this never happened. Toussaint had some opportunities to make plays, but a couple of his teammates (including Julius Ferrell – who didn’t look much like a D-1 prospect, though the knee brace he was wearing may have had something to do with it) got the better opportunities, as Howland’s defense was keying on Fitz all night. He ended the game with 124 yards rushing on 30 carries, including a 5 yard sack on a halfback pass. His long run of the night was 21 yards. He was thrown to once and it was intercepted.

Isaiah Bell was also a starter on offense, at one of the wide receiver positions. He was thrown to 3 times, with 1 reception (on a screen) for four yards. The other two passes, using the UFR metric, would be classified as a 0 (bounced to him) and a 1.

Bell was also one of Liberty’s safeties, playing free in the middle of what appeared to be a cover-3 system most of the game. It was clear that, despite his size, Isaiah’s job was to play centerfield and let absolutely nobody by him. He was hesistant in run support, but I think that was a schematic choice, rather than a criticism of him. He finished the game with 5 tackles, though he left during the fourth quarter with an ankle injury (he could put almost no weight on his left leg).

So with a couple of big-time players in the mix for Liberty, how did they manage to lose this game? There are a couple of main reasons. First things first, Howland was determined to stop Fitzgerald Toussaint, no matter the cost. This hurt them when he motioned to the slot and another running back ran up the gut for a long touchdown. This selling out would have hindered their ability to win even more had Liberty’s QB not been something approaching awful. I didn’t keep stats on him, but he was something like 3/15 with 2 or 3 picks. Yikes. Not good. Howland also avoided Bell and Toussaint on special teams. Those two were the deep men on punts and kickoffs. All the kickoffs were squibbed, and only one punt made it to the returners (a Toussaint 18 yard return was negated by a block in the back).
In terms of playing style and projections, Fitz appeared to me to be much more of an inside runner than expected. Like every high schooler, he has work to do in the weight room, but he should be just fine once he gets to college. Though Bell has athleticism, he also has a pretty strong build. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to stay at safety in college, and be a big hitter. However, it is more likely that he adds bulk and becomes a linebacker. As you can see, he has big thighs, and a frame that might be conducive to putting on more weight.

Posted under Football

Massey from Buckeye Commentary stops by to give his weekly take on Michigan’s game. My contribution can be checked out over there.

What I saw: There are occasions when watching Michigan is similar to an old science fiction movie (think Mystery Science Theatre 3000). You are witnessing the present one moment but then there are strange flashes to alternate spaces and realities. You assume they are imaginary, but those flashes make you question whether they are the true reality because they seem to make perfect sense at that moment. Then something dreadful happens to drag you back to the previous real moment. The transitions are never smooth or well-explained.

The Wolverines offense creates this same sensation for me. I have watched enough to know the likely outcome of each play, but for some inexplicable reason, I am constantly fooled when they appear to be progressing or finding a groove. It happened to me at the beginning of the games versus Notre Dame, Illinois, and now Penn State. There are moments when you can see exactly what the offense will look like in the future, and then BAM! Suddenly, the offense is shaken from the flash-forward and the predestined awfulness that is the real team returns in full Technicolor.

Part of this reverse déjà vu is that I have seen it before – in similar uniforms, to boot – with Rodriguez’s West Virginia teams. So, it does not seem foreign when Michigan succeeds. Quite the contrary, actually. When you couple Rich Rod’s past success with the Michigan tradition, I expect to see Michigan’s offensive plays actually gain positive yards. It just does not happen for more than a few drives per game.

What I didn’t see: A reason to ever play Nick Sheridan again. If Threet cannot play – meaning he is dead – they should play Feagin. If that is not plausible (as yet, an unexplained phenomenon) they should line up Minor or McGuffie or Odoms or anybody else at QB. Sweet Jesus! I may not write about college football forever, but no matter how long I do, the Sheridan proclamation will be my worst ever.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot: tackling.

Who I watched: Brandon Minor looked impressive early on, but the flash-forward ended and Michigan was lucky to punt on the remainder of its possessions. Still, Minor looks more controlled, which I guess is to say, more traditional. McGuffie is whirling dervish (minus the chanting). Minor’s yards look more dependable. Perhaps Minor just fits my perception of Michigan’s past offenses better, but he seems like a better choice. I suppose if he does not fumble he is the starting running back, but that appears to be a big “if” – for everyone on the offense. Then again, I thought McGuffie had the starting spot locked after the ND game.

What I expect next week: I expect to be fooled again. Last week, I told you that I did not expect Michigan to be blown out as Vegas predicted. For almost three quarters I looked like a genius. Then, I looked like more normal, mostly-wrong self.

Michigan State was totally one-dimensional against Ohio State but that was a weird game. Ohio State’s instant lead plus Hoyer’s injury created a terribly unfriendly rushing environment for MSU. Who knows, if a couple of those fumbles turn out differently the Spartans may not have been playing catch up all day.

I doubt Ringer will have two bad games in a row and Michigan needs to tackle this time out, but with MSU’s quarterback situation I imagine Michigan will be selling out to stop the run. I want to say that Michigan will be competitive, but that could be a pre-game alternate reality.

What this game tells me about The Game: Last weekend was the single most disparate week of the season for Ohio State and Michigan. Ohio State had its best game while Michigan had its worst. Of course, the Wolverines played the league’s best team while OSU got to play the league’s best pretender. If Michigan were to tackle that poorly in Columbus, Wells and Pryor would have a combined 250 yards rushing. But that probably will not happen so there is no sense talking that way.

I know I keep saying it, but Michigan has these flashes of greatness and for whatever reason – lack of execution, talent, poise, discipline, creativity – it never lasts for entire game. But, what if it does? Penn State has a nice defense with a defensive line far better than Ohio State’s and Minor was running straight through it. What would happen if they played well for an entire game? Is that possible?

We will know a lot more on Saturday night, and then we can apply the non-existent transitive properties based on mutual performances against PSU.

Posted under Football

Board.

Moved from Committed:
TX K Anthony Fera. He’s headed to Penn State now.

Added:
OH CB Mike Edwards. He now has an offer (info in header).
FL K Brendan Gibbons. Probably Michigan’s #1 kicking target now.

New Information:
GA QB/S Donavan Tate. He now say’s he’ll go to college regardless of where he gets drafted by the MLB. Southern Cal, UNC, Bama, Michigan, and Georgia comprise his current top 5.
MI DT William Campbell. Michigan’s top remaining target for 2009.
SC S Devonte Holloman. His teammate (and former UM target) Stephon Gilmore has now committed to South Carolina. Might that help convince Holloman to commit there?
NC OL Travis Bond. He’ll be in this weekend (info in header).
FL CB Angelo Hadley. Michigan is in his top 4 (info in header).

Removed:
OK CB Gabe Lynn. Down to a final 5 that does not include Michigan.
TX K Anthony Fera. Penn State commit.
IL DE Craig Drummond. He’ll pick between Illinois and Wisconsin.

Etc.:
FL WR Willie Haulstead is not on the board because he’s a Florida State commit, but he will be in for the MSU game this weekend.
The Freep weighs in on many of the guys who will be around. Sam Webb does the same in the Detroit News.

Analysis:
Fera’s loss is sad, and I would love to have him, but it appears as though he has moved on, and Brendan Gibbons is now the kicker du jour for Michigan.
Columbus Dispatch article in which MI TE Reid Fragel disses Michigan’s instate recruiting effort. Gee, an OSU commit trying to badmouth Michigan, I’m so surprised. Much ado about nothing.

Posted under Football

In this blogcast we talked with Cash Kruth, football beat writer for the State News. We discussed the state of State football and commiserated about recent loses as well as got a preview of the upcoming flag football game between the the State News and the Michigan Daily. Enjoy:

Posted under Football

What can I say about the Penn State game? It reinforced several things that we already knew about Michigan, in addition to some other stuff:

• The offense isn’t simply bad, it’s inconsistent. It can be very bad much of the time, and it can also produce effective drives some of the time. The lack of experience is resulting in the evil side of the offense being apparent more than the good side.
• Nick Sheridan is not very good at the footballs. By all accounts he’s a good kid, but he’s not Division-I material.
• I had forgotten how bad Penn State fans were. They vault back up to #2 in my “biggest assholes in the conference” unofficial rankings, surpassing Wisconsin.
• Minor looked pretty good, and I think that he’s likely your primary starter for the short-term future, as a strong runner is necessary when the standard running play is “go into the teeth of the defense with only nominal assistance from your offensive line.”
• The defense still needs to step up. The big play has become something of a habit. I know Penn State is far and away the best team we’ve seen so far this year, but the defense has to be able to at least slow them down.
• That said, I’m not huge on all this Shafer hate that is going around. I think Shafer is hamstrung by some of the personnel, and maybe even the position coaches he has to work with.
• Not sure when I’ll get around to making an FNL. Hopefully tonight, though.

And on to Michigan State:

• In case you missed it (since I accidentally posted it at midnight), here is the post I wrote about the previous times Rodriguez and Dantonio have faced off. Obviously, neither team is the same, but it’s at least interesting to see.
• Steve Threet and Brian Hoyer are both supposed to start this weekend. God help us if Threet can’t play.
• I see Michigan State as a Wisconsin analogue more than anything. Wisconsin is the only team we’ve beaten so far this year, so at least there’s hope.

Posted under Football

On Confusing Insults
Saturday morning we left the house where we were staying decked out fully in our Michigan gear. Before we even hit the street from the back door, we ran into a few a Penn State fans. One of these partisans pointed at the group of us and yelled “FAG! FAG! FAGGOT!” I think we responded with either “Go blue!” or “Keep it classy State College.” Then the more we thought about, the more confused we became. Was there one of us who looked or acted some way to earn the extra syllable? Did one of us just seem more homosexual that that person deserved the full pejorative? By the end of the day we were arguing with each other about who was the full word. We decided it was Tim.

On Beaver Street some girls walked by looking really confused. As we got close to her she said “Who are all these yellow people?” We looked around quickly to make sure it was in fact referring to us. We were definitely the only people who could classify as “yellow.” I’m not sure if her use of the term “yellow people” is common in State College to refer to Michigan fans, but we were not used to that use of the term.

On Hilarious Things Saved for All Time

This photo was taken on Foster between Atherton and Barnard.

On Things That Might Be Related
One really awesome feature on Penn State’s campus is the Creamery. Both times I’ve made it down to State College I’ve stopped at there and gotten some of the best ice cream I’ve ever had. Unfortunately, there was no Peachy Paterno or Jay’s Java Chip or Chocolate Marshmallow Morelli. I got bittersweet mint and Nate got vanilla. It was delicious as this picture shows:

On The Surprising Calm
We were pretty sure that Michigan was going to lose, but we also knew we wanted to hang out in State College Saturday night. In the unlikely event of a Michigan win, I would have been worried about some sort of murder-suicide, mob mentality sort of thing. To prevent this, we bought Penn State hoodies (if Braylon can do it, we can). After the loss we decided to see how excited the fans were about a fairly huge game in recent Penn State history. We threw on our Penn State clothes and headed out on the town.

Walking down the street, one of us would yell “WE ARE!” and listen for a response. Generally even with big groups of people there wasn’t a huge response. Usually it was one or two people out of all of them. I’m not sure if it was a come down from the excitement and build up to the game, but many fans simply seemed deflated and relieved. I remember after the Wisconsin game this year or the Penn State game in 2005, Michigan fans were going crazy in Ann Arbor all night after the game. I’m not sure what was holding the Penn State fans down, but something certainly was.

Posted under Football