When I previewed Penn State in the summer, I knew the Nittany Lions would be good. Did I know they’d be this good? Maybe not, but I certainly thought they’d be undefeated at this point in the season. PSU has run roughshod over pretty much every challenger in their way, primarily on the strength of QB Daryll Clark. Michigan would have to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the year so far to even stay within 20 of the Nittany Lions tomorrow afternoon.

Offense
Daryll Clark, perhaps most memorable to Michigan fans for being the second QB knocked out of the game the last time the Wolverines traveled to Happy Valley, has emerged as one of the premier signal-callers in the conference, if not the nation. He is reminiscent of Michael Robinson in directing Penn State’s Spread HD offense: he might not be the most skilled passer in the world, but Robinson proved a few years ago that it isn’t necessary to run a successful offense. The two-headed monster of Evan Royster and Stefphon Green that PSU fans predicted coming into the year has been primarily the Evan Royster show, with Green as more of a backup and situational player. On the wings, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams return for their 500th year as starters for Penn State. Their distribution of catches is disturbingly even, ranging from 21 to 23. Derrick Williams, with the most catches, has the fewest yards, though part of that may be due to the fact that he’s manning the underappreciated Steve Breaston 2006 role for PSU. The offensive line is doing well itself, having ceded the 12th fewest sacks in Division I-A, and earning the 12th most rushing yards.

For this specific matchup, I would like to hope that Michigan can at least slow down the rushing attack. The Wolverines’ DL is among the best Penn State has seen so far this year, but with the way Juice Williams owned the Wolverines, I don’t think Clark should struggle to get his team moving the ball on the ground. In the secondary, Boubacar Cissoko got some valuable experience last week in place of Donovan Warren, and if Warren returns this week, the corners should be able to be in position to stop the spread. As always, it’s the duty of the safeties and linebackers to strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans.

Defense
The losses up front have not harmed the Nittany Lions like it seemed like they would early in the year. Chris Baker, Devon Still, and a host of other players have been replaced admirably by Aaron Maybin, Josh Gaines, and others. The one disappointment on that front, however, has been Maurice Evans. After a stellar 2007, he has yet to produce for Penn State this season. PSU’s linebackers have been led by Navorro Bowman. In the secondary, Penn State is in the top 10 in pass efficiency defense, but significantly worse in overall pass defense – that indicates little more than the fact that teams have been forced to pass their way out of big holes against PSU.

Michigan’s offense, if it wants to succeed at all, needs to get on the scoreboard early in this game. Penn State’s defense has succeeded mostly in preventing teams from playing a balanced offensive scheme. Of course, Michigan is unlikely to be able to run against Penn State either way. Martavious Odoms’s return is important, because it gives Steven Threet more ability to pass down the field and open up the run game. The possibility of Terrance Robinson and Justin Feagin finally playing this week also triples Michigan’s number of viable options in the slot.

Predictions
Someone other than Sam McGuffie is Michigan’s leading rusher.
Daryll Clark has at least 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
Michigan keeps it a little closer than expected, but loses 38-17.

Posted under Football

Massey of Buckeye Commentary gives his weekly Wolverine Commentary.

What I saw/heard/read: More than the game itself, I started seeing/hearing/reading a palpable drumbeat of disdain for this team. Yeah, we (you and me) see it all over the Interweb, but most people do not troll the Information Superhighway like we do. The masses consider John Saunders a font of information. So, when I saw Braylon Edwards wearing a Penn State shirt a red flag went up. I am aware that some people believe it is a tradition to wear the opposing team’s logo/shirt/something the week before the game, but considering Edwards earlier confrontations with Rodriguez, most people likely see this as another flank in the passive aggressive Michigan revolution. To top it all off, Michigan AD Bill Martin came out and said Rodriguez has his full support. No shit, the guy has only coached six games. But, Martin would not say that if he had only received a handful of complaints from long-time-fans-first-time-callers. He must be getting it from all sides. This is unbelievable.

Michigan is not good this season. So what? They were not going to be great with Carr either, which is why I am so bemused by fans’ collective response. I suppose this reaction is a testament to Michigan’s incredible, consistent success over the last 30-plus years; the idea of one poor season is cataclysmic.

Believe me, Michigan football will be more than fine. Saban lost to Louisiana Monroe last year and The Tide seems to be doing okay this season. The greatest current threat facing Michigan fans is developing an over-inflated sense of entitlement ala South Bend.

What I did not see: Any reason Nick Sheridan should play besides Threet’s injury. Even then, it might not be warranted. Man, was I sooooooo wrong about him claiming the starting spot before this season ended. Sorry about that one. I also did not see Justin Feagin, which after seeing Interception Pants, truly surprised me. What could possibly be holding Feagin back? Has he been injured? Struggled with the playbook? Mouthed off to coaches? It is time to burn that redshirt in the name of hope and progress – in the name of 2009.

Who I watched: Once he came in, I watched Nick Sheridan. I was so prepared to be vindicated for my previous position. Yeah, how did that one work out? In the end, I got tired of watching Nick Moore catch more passes than anyone I have ever seen and look better than all of Ohio State’s receivers in the process. Yeah, Moore is from Columbus. [/Loud thump heard in distance]

What I expect next week: I have no idea. I could say “a total thrashing beyond all Michigan fans’ wildest nightmares,” but I do not believe that. I know they are 24-point-ish underdogs but the Wolverines played their best game against their best opponent to date, Wisconsin. I do not think it will be 31-0 at the halftime. Honestly, I really don’t. Penn State is good – the best team in the league by a country mile – but Michigan has yet to roll over and I actually think playing on the road will help them. No more home fans booing and cascading debris upon error. No more walking to and from the locker room seeing dejected faces in the stands. Something has to help, right?

What this tells about The Game: If both teams play relatively decent defense, the first team to 10 points wins that game. In case you missed it, the USS Pryor ran aground against the league’s WORST defense. It is only slight hyperbole to say that Ohio State’s offense is almost as bad as Michigan’s. Statistically speaking, the difference is 30 yards/game. If you brought someone back from the dead who died in the mid-70s to watch that game there is a very good chance the game would kill them.

Posted under Football

Or: How one player can catch 20 passes in a game.

The Situation(s)
In Round 1, Toledo trails Michigan by 3 in the 3rd quarter. The Rockets are driving for the chance to take a lead, but they are already well within field goal range. They have a 2nd-and-10 from the Michigan 21. Their strategy: move the ball down the field with short, easy passes.

In Round 2, the game is now tied at 10 late in the third. The Rockets are now driving for the opportunity to take the lead. They have a 1st-and-10 from their own 21. The Rockets decide to stick with what has been working: the short passing game.

The Personnel and Formation(s)
On both plays, the Rockets are in a 3-wide, 2-tight end formation. In the first situation, Michigan counters with their Okie package. In the second, they are in a standard 4-3, but the personnel is spread wide. Since he’s the player we’re focusing on, each Toledo formation has Nick Moore to the twins side, though he is in the slot in round 1 and out wide in the second play.

The Play(s)

In both situations, Toledo keeps each tight end for a max protect. In both situations, Toledo runs a simple combo route that takes advantage of what they presume to be soft coverage of one form or another.

In situation 1, it is a hitch-flat combo that takes advantage of man coverage with a huge cushion provided on Moore by Brandon Harrison.

In the second situation, it is a slant-flat combo that takes advantage of cover-2 defense by Michigan and infamously terrible pass coverage by John Thompson.

Why They Worked

These are good reads by Opelt against predictably vanilla defenses. In the first one, he sees that the cushion is large enough to guarantee that Moore will get about 5 yards. In the second, Thompson follows the flat receiver into Trent’s zone (so pin this play on him), and then Brown’s pursuit angle is lacking somewhat. This is a case of being outschemed (due to lack of effort) and John Thompson just kinda sucking.

It was clear by this point that Moore was the #1 option on essentially every play, and Michigan’s scheme should have been catered slightly more to slowing him down (and John Thompson should have realized his error before it happened). Marell Evans must be really far behind, because it would be hard to play worse than Thompson, at least in coverage.

Posted under Football

The Board.

Moved to Committed:

Moved from Committed:
MN WR Bryce McNeal. Decommitted Monday night.

Added:
SC S Devonte Holloman. The former Michigan target has decommitted from Clemson. Potential visits include Michigan.
TX S Craig Loston. Also a Clemson decommit. Michigan was in on him early, but they may not be a player anymore. He’ll get a little time on the board until we can figure out if he’s a viable target.

New Information:
MI DT William Campbell. He’s set his visits. Sam Webb reveals what they shall be.
LA DT Commit DeQuinta Jones. He’s looking around a little bit. Might it result in a decommitment?
AZ DE Craig Roh. His game this Friday will be broadcast over the internet. You can find it at aia365.com. Just as a disclaimer, I couldn’t gt this site to work properly during the week, so don’t get your hopes too high.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. Visiting PSU for the Michigan game this weekend.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. He has trimmed to 15; Michigan is in.

Removed:

Etc.:
A sort of state-of-the-recruiting class statement from Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press.
Not on the board because he’s technically still committed to Florida, but Nu’Keese Richardson still intends to visit for the Michigan State game next week.

Analysis:

Posted under Football

The Situation
It’s the first quarter, and Michigan is trying to respond after a Toledo interception return put them down 7-0. Michigan has a 2nd-and-7 from the Toledo 36. A modest gain could move Michigan into field goal range. If they lose yards (Ha!), they will be pushed back, and face a daunting 3rd down conversion, which science says they are likely to convert at a very low rate (currently 27.2%, fourth from last in the NCAA).

The Personnel and Formation
Michigan is in the I-formation, with Sam McGuffie as the deep back and Mark Moundros the fullback. Kevin Koger is split in the slot, but motions over before the snap. Toledo is in a 3-4 defense with both outside linebackers in blitzing position. Prio to the snap, they bring one of their safeties up to the line of scrimmage.

The Play
Toss sweep to the right. Clusterfuck in the “blocking” department, with Schilling trying to stretch all the way to the safety, Moundros attempting to get to him once it is apparent Schilling will not, the playside DE unblocked, and all sorts of Toledo defenders flowing to the playside, with not enough blockers there to take care of all of them.

Why it Didn’t Work
The purple line represents the arc of the playside offensive linemen.

This play was doomed from the beginning. By the time the ball was snapped, it was clear Michigan would be greatly outnumbered at the point of attack. Couple that with crappy blocking from Schilling (not his fault, he is being asked to make a ridiculous stretch), Moosman completely whiffs on his guy, and unblocked players in the backfield everywhere. Koger is blocking down on this play, which allows even his man to get into the backfield. McGuffie is screwed from the beginning, and does what he can to avoid a huge loss.

Now you (unfortunately) know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Football

I wasn’t going to post about this, but it provides the opportunity to bitch about the mainstream media in general, and ESPN in particular.

If you’re reading a college football blog now, you’ve undoubtedly heard about Braylon Edwards’s wearing of a Penn State t-shirt for an interview on Monday Night Football a couple days ago. There has also been rampant speculation about why he did such a thing, and even joking photoshops (mspaints?) about the “actual shirt” he was wearing.

Whatever, I don’t really care what T-shirt Braylon is wearing, and I doubt it has anything to do with the Rodriguez misunderstanding earlier this summer. Dude’s still donating scholarship money to the school, something tells me he suddenly hates it. Whatever, he wore a t-shirt, who cares, right?

Well, on ESPN yesterday and today, the analysts have discussed what they think Braylon’s motives might have been in the whole thing. College Football Live today discussed the possibility that it is residual bitterness from the aforementioned #1 jersey flap. Speculation, whatever. Most people on the Michigan side of things cite a previously-unheard of (at least to Google) tradition #1 has of wearing the shirt of the school Michigan plays that weekend. You know who has the opportunity to go right to the source and find out?

YOU DO, JESSE PALMER. YOU’RE ES-fucking-PN! Has one reporter from that network even tried to ask Braylon about it? You can bet not, otherwise they’d be citing his “no comment” as further evidence that it is RR-grudge related. Sure, it’s great to have a monopoly on all the national sports coverage power, but for the love of god USE IT!

In conclusion, ESPN kinda sucks.

Posted under Football

Coming into this season, I got countless e-mails asking me why Michigan was expected to struggle this year, whereas Penn State was considered one of the preseason favorites for the Big Ten title. I discussed this a bit back in the summer, but now that the Wolverines and Nitanny Lions are facing off this week, it’s certainly relevant to bring up again. So why, with similar changes in offensive philosophy, are Michigan and Penn State having such radically different success?

Quarterbacks
Steven Threet is not a world-beater in terms of talent, but on the other hand, neither is Daryll Clark. Clark, however, is a run-pass threat far more suited to a spread-option attack than is Threet. In fact, Rich Rodriguez recruited Clark out of prep school when he was still at West Virginia. Speaking of prep school, Clark is a 4th-year junior, with an additional year of high school under his belt in order to qualify for college. Threet is but a second-year freshman, who required no such additional schooling (he was class valedictorian from Adrian). Regardless of recruiting rankings, Clark has far more experience than Threet.

In terms of the players they replace, Chad Henne is Michigan’s career passing leader in several categories. Threet would have to be lights-out to even be just one step down. Clark, on the other hand, steps in for underachiever Anthony Morelli, who was never sniffed by the NFL. He can certainly be considered a substantial step up.

Coaching
Where Penn State’s coaching situation is the embodiment of continuity, Michigan’s staff has just one coach, Fred Jackson, who was with the team last year. Penn State can change its formations and some of its plays, but the terminology and teacher are consistent for every member of the team. At Michigan, on the other hand, nearly everything was different. The Wolverines didn’t even use shotgun sets last year, except in some 3rd down situations and the Citrus Bowl. Vocabulary, practice routines, and the offensive philosophy itself are completely different. Penn State even ran a version of its offense three years ago, so several of the more experienced players have even run it in their time at Beaver Stadium.

Talent and Experience
This category may be the greatest difference between Michigan and Penn State this year. Whereas the Wolverines came in having to replace 4 starters along the offensive line (including two with remaining eligibility), Penn State had only one player to replace. PSU’s wide receivers are in their fourth consecutive year as starters in the same unit. Though some of the role players in the receiving corps has changed, this is year four of the Butler, Norwood, and Williams show. At the running back position, Penn State has Evan Royster, the team’s oft-deployed backup from a year ago.

Michigan lost its top two receivers from a year ago, both of whom had eligibility left. They also lost the team’s all-time leading rusher, who carried the team on his back. Without Mike Hart last year, the Wolverines’ run game was something resembling pathetic. There was no reason for intense optimism coming into this year, as true freshman Sam McGuffie is the starter, and oft-injured Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown are the only players with any experience who return.
The Takeaway
This is not meant to be an excuse for Michigan’s season thus far, but rather an explanation of why Penn State is having so much more success than Michigan. Coming into the year, I think anyone who really paid attention could have seen it coming, and now we understand why the Nittany Lions are succeeding where Michigan has failed.

Posted under Football

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	1
2	Texas	3
3	Penn State	—
4	Florida	4
5	Oklahoma	4
6	Southern Cal	3
7	Georgia	—
8	Oklahoma State	5
9	Ohio State	2
10	Utah	2
11	Brigham Young	1
12	Texas Tech	2
13	Missouri	9
14	LSU	8
15	South Florida	1
16	Kansas	1
17	Virginia Tech	2
18	Boise State	2
19	Michigan State	2
20	Florida State	2
21	Wake Forest	5
22	Pittsburgh	2
23	Minnesota	3
24	North Carolina	2
25	Ball State	1

Posted under Football

Everyone knew Michigan was going to struggle this year. Maybe nobody thought the Wolverines would fall to Toledo, but everyone except the most fanatically-blind Michigan supporters knew that a Big Ten title was likely out of the question, and a bowl game might be a reasonable goal. There was always the future to look forward to. A year of learning under the spread system. A year of Barwis. A good 2009 recruiting class. The future was looking bright, because Michigan fans certainly weren’t planning to bail after one trying year under Rich Rodriguez. The members of that 2009 recruiting class, on the other hand? Some may not stick around to help clean up the carnage.

There are competing schools of thought on the link between winning and success on the recruiting trail. On one hand, you have the fans who hope prospects see the opportunity to come in and compete right away (and, realistically, some recruits do follow this train of thought). On the other side, one can find those who think a recruit will want to stay as far away as possible from anything that could be perceived as a “sinking ship” (again, some recruits think this, as well).

I personally think, from my trials and tribulations in following recruiting, that there is something of a hybrid between these two schools of thought. We’ll start when a recruit is young. If a child grows up watching a program succeed regularly, he might become something of a fan of that program. More likely, however, it may become “familiar” to him, if only on the most shallow name-recognition basis. Actual wins and losses (of course, except in the case where a recruit grows up a diehard fan of a certain program) probably don’t really become a factor until a high schooler becomes something of a potential recruit. Once a young man realizes that he might have an opportunity to play division 1 football (brother), the attention becomes a little more focused on the programs who might be potential destinations. This typically happens around a prospect’s junior year.

Senior year, however, is not likely a time for recruits to radically alter their perceptions of a program. If a team struggles during the 2008 season (this is completely hypothetical, of course), a young quarterback from San Diego or Wichita Falls (again, completely hypothetical, and I randomly selected those cities) will see that as an opportunity to come in and compete for a starting position right away. This is especially true of those hypothetical recruits who intend to hypothetically enroll early hypothetically. Hypothetically. Only the more loosely-committed players, or those who look at depth charts and realize that, although there is playing time up for grabs, it is not at their position, are the ones who might be swayed from the 2009 class.

So, who might fall into the category for this class? Bryce McNeal, Brandin Hawthorne, Anthony Fera, and DeWayne Peace have taken or plan to take visits elsewhere, along with former commitment William Campbell. DeQuinta Jones has been heard from very little since he committed, and his status is a virtual mystery to Michigan fans. As long as Michigan’s coaches continue to do a good job recruiting these players, they should retain those that they want. McNeal seems to be the most likely to decommit at this time.

So, let’s bring this back to the 2010 recruiting class. If high school juniors see a program lose, and form their perception from that, it means Michigan’s 2010 class could be pretty bad, right? Well, yes and no. Michigan already has 2 commits, both of whom are likely to be 4-star or 5-star prospects. A third is presumably on the way, another 4-star or better player. All three of these players have Michigan ties from long before their junior years of high school, and their perception of the Wolverines isn’t bound to change radically. Joining a class of highly-ranked prospects is one of the antidotes to a less-than-stellar year. Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, and hopefully Marvin Robinson all will be an incentive for other good recruits to join the class.

This may be one of the factors in some of the more inexplicably-good recruiting classes in recent memory. Notre Dame can sell its tradition, but one would think a 3-9 year would deter top prospects from joining the class of 2008 in South Bend. At the end of the day, however, the Irish finished with the #2 class in the nation. The only team that finished ahead of the Irish? Alabama, a team that had a recent history of mediocrity, despite its history. Nick Saban, in his second year in Tuscaloosa, and coming off a 7-6 record that didn’t exactly scream “WOO PROGRAM ON THE RISE” pulled in a stellar group of players to help turn the Tide’s fortunes around.

So, can Michigan, with its young, exciting coach pull in top classes in 2009 and 2010, despite a 2008 season that will likely end well below .500? The recruits aren’t stuck with Michigan, but we fans are hoping that Rich Rod can keep the snake oil flowing.

Posted under Coaching, Recruiting

The 2010 Board lives here.

New Information:
FL RB Jakhari Gore. He was on academic suspension from playing football last week. Might Michigan try to avoid an academic liability? He;s probably a lock to Tha U anyway.
MI TE Colin Voss. At this time, it appears he is more of a basketball prospect than football.
FL OL Jose Jose. Fluff about his being slightly less massive.
VA DT Derrick Hopkins. VT is likely his early leader. His older brother is committed to their class of 2009.
PA DE Darius Frantz. Has been playing with a broken hand his junior year.
PA LB Mike Hull. Something I had not previously realized: his dad went to PSU, and is something of a big deal. He would get a frowny face if I were into the MGoBlog smiley face thing.
FL S Marvin Robinson. Michigan is still considered the favorite. “Scout.com: Will Robinson be #3 in 2010?” This is the sort of headline that is almost always answered “yes” (with as much certainty as possible) within the article.
TX CB Adrian White. He has a Texas offer. Usually the Longhorns snatch up whomever they want in-state, so take this as a sign that he’ll probably end up in burnt orange.

Removed:
MI LB Max Bullough. In the shocker of the century, he commits to MSU.
FL S/Ath Matt Elam. The state’s #1 junior has committed to Florida. This article on the matter implies that Chris Dunkley and De’Joshua Johnson are likely to end up gators as well.

Etc.:
Frequent commenter “i know nothing” helped me find a set of 2010 in-state rankings for Florida. I’ve taken it into account, (along with SoFlaFootball’s 2010 rankings for the tri-county area), and when I re-configure somewhat, several of the prospects’ star ratings will be adjusted, and I’ll also add a bit of player information about them. Biggest surprise: Ricardo Miller is now looking like a lock to get 5 stars, save for the requisite hatred from being an early commit to an out-of-state school.

A bunch of 2010 guys visit Alabama.

Alex Shelton also wrote in to correct me on the name of Michael Dyer’s school. It is “Little Rock Christian,” not “Walnut Valley Christian” as it had previously been on the board. It shall be fixed soon.

Analysis:
Bullough and Elam aren’t surprises to their respective schools. A lot of guys are on the board for the sake of being all-encompassing, rather than who is actually highly likely to end up committing to Michigan. They will be weeded out by their commitments to other schools.

Posted under Recruiting