Action since last rankings:
9-14-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Patrick Ward.
9-15-08 Wisconsin gains commitment from AJ Fenton.
9-16-08 Indiana gains commitment from Javon Cornley.
9-17-08 Purdue gains commitment from Josh Johnson.
9-18-08 Michigan gains commitment from Craig Roh.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let’s take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we’ll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.

Looking Back:

Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Utah’s D didn’t score, but Michigan’s defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan’s offense wouldn’t be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Michigan’s inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn’t show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.

Looking Forward
Since these games haven’t happened yet, my predictions haven’t become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Perhaps Michigan’s second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin’s defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.

Illinois
Prediction: Tossup

I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.

Toledo
Prediction: Victory

Michigan is undefeated against the MAC, and don’t let the records fool you: Miami was a better team than Toledo is.

Penn State
Prediction: Loss

When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it’s looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.

Michigan State
Prediction: Tossup

I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.

Purdue
Prediction: Victory

Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.

Minnesota
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota has looked better than expected, but the Gophers have a long way to go (and the schedule will only get tougher from here).

Northwestern
Prediction: Victory

After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.

Ohio State
Prediction: Pain

Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Young
stown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to “defeat.”

And…?
If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.

Posted under Analysis

With defensive end a major need for the 2008 and 2009 recruiting classes, Michigan finally received a commitment at the position last week, and when it rains, it pours. Craig Roh, a standout at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, Arizona, has pledged his word to sign with Michigan in February. Roh (6-5, 230, 4.6) becomes the 18th Michigan commitment for 2009.

Player Notes
Roh has great measurements for the defensive end position, though he will likely need to add weight with Mike Barwis to become a fixture along the defensive front. Roh is a high-energy player with excellent speed for a lineman. He was on Jim Stefani’s early list of prospects that Michigan should pursue. He is a tweener-type, though not the bad kind: he can play either a pass-rushing or run-stopping role from the defensive end spot, though if he specializes in one or the other, he could become a more intimidating player. It is expected that he will stay at the weakside (pass-rushing) end position. Roh has been selected for the ESPNU All-Star game, which certainly puts him among the top prospects in the country. He is considered a 4-star to both Rivals and Scout.

Recruiting Notes
Roh is originally from Michigan, and still has family in the Mitten. Roh’s family takes vacations in West Michigan each summer, so he is familiar with the area. He was extended a scholarship offer early in the recruiting cycle (though perhaps not early enough for some who follow recruiting to be satisfied), and expressed a lot of interest in Michigan. He visited Ann Arbor multiple times in a single week around the Fourth of July, the second visit to ensure he could meet with headman Rich Rodriguez. The visit did not result in a commitment, but not too long after, he narrowed to a top five list of several West Coast schools and Michigan. Roh then set up an official visit to Ann Arbor for the Wolverines’ opening tilt against Utah. Following the visit, Craig gave the standard “I was blown away” lip service, but indicated that he would not commit to Michigan until after giving the USC Trojans a chance. His official visit to the Coliseum for Southern Cal’s win against Ohio State never came to fruition, and instead he took an unofficial visit to Arizona State last weekend. On Tuesday, he announced that he would make his college choice on Tom Luginbill’s ESPNU show Thursday night. When it came time to reveal his decision, Craig picked the Michigan Wolverines.

Posted under Recruiting

With no opponent to preview, we went over all the happenings on the recruiting trail for the past month as well as looking into the future. Enjoy:

 

 Recruiting Podcast for Sept. 18th [18:25m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Blogcast, Recruiting

If teams didn’t play 1-AA schools, here are some intriguing matchups (or not-so-intriguing, but certainly better than Alcorn State) that could have been. I only matched teams that played on the same day, so with some restructuring (pairing a Thursday 1-AA game with a Saturday 1-AA game), the schedule could have been even better. Also, the matchups I picked were mostly aribtrary, though often I tried to get the #1 v. #2 out of the teams from different conferences, and worked my way down.

August 28
Iowa State-Ball State
Central Michigan-UConn
Eastern Michigan-Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)-Cincinnati

August 30
LSU-Oklahoma
Ohio State-BYU
Penn State-Texas Tech
Iowa-Central Florida
Georgia-West Virginia
Air Force-Boise State
Navy-Maryland
Marshall-Duke
UNC-Arkansas
South Florida-Arizona State
Houston-San Jose State
Nevada-San Diego State

September 6
Illinois-UVa
Purdue-Colorado
Army-Florida State
Virginia Tech-Mississippi State
Louisville-Colorado State
Clemson-Missouri
Kentucky-Indiana (Why the hell didn’t they play this year?)
NC State-Baylor
Arkansas State
TCU-Kansas State
SMU-Hawaii
Western Kentucky
Idaho

*Idaho and Western Kentucky were left out because they played presumed rivals Idaho State and Eastern Kentucky, respectively.

September 13
Northwestern-Wyoming
Minnesota-Ole Miss
Oklahoma State-Florida State
Kent State-Troy
Miami (OH)

September 20
Northern Illinois-UAB
Syracuse-Memphis
Texas Tech-Washington State
Kansas-South Carolina
Western Kentucky-Western Michigan
Louisiana Tech

September 27
Boston College-Utah
Rutgers-Tulsa
Ohio

October 4
New Mexico State

October 11
Georgia Tech

November 8
Auburn

November 22
Florida-Wisconsin

What should the NCAA do to encourage (or force) better matchups? Allow 1-A teams to play against lower-division squads, but not count it toward bowl eligibility.

Posted under Misc.

Horrid (and questionable but possibly not right) calls that went against Michigan Saturday.

• Chop block on David Molk. The right guard had not engaged the defensive tackle when Molk went low. This is as bad a judgment call as I’ve seen in a while.
• Greg Mathews diving catch in the endzonde ruled incomplete. This was a close call, but Mathews’s right hand was between the ball and the ground the entire time, and the ball is not jarred loose when he hits the ground (a sure sign that he has full control of it). This isn’t an egregiously bad call, but another example of Michigan getting bad breaks in this game. (video below).
• On 4th & 6, Steven Threet throws (slightly behind) Martavious Odoms. Odoms turns back for the ball, but has no chance to make a catch, because his left wrist is raked by the defender, so he can’t get it back to the ball.
• On the very next play, there is no contact between Donovan Warren and Michael Floyd. The pass is broken up. More than three seconds after the play ends, an official away from the ball throws the least-justified pass interference flag possible. Even the NBC announcers(!) think it is a terrible call. On the next play, Golden Tate catches the game-sealing touchdown (in the first quarter, ugh). (video below)
• Second quarter, Michigan has brought the game back within 11, Notre Dame is driving. On second and goal, Donovan Warren is called for pass interference (“a fag is down in the endzone”) on a ball that was thrown out the back of the endzone (again by a ref with an obstructed view of the play, wtf), and would have been uncatchable by anyone. Notre Dame scores a touchdown on the ensuing first and goal.
• Michigan is driving in the second quarter, and Sam McGuffie is literally pulled to the ground by his facemask, and nothing else. The linesman (who is within 4 yards of the play) reaches for his flag, but decides against throwing it. Ultimately, the umpire says “wtf?” and has to throw the flag from 15 yards downfield. This isn’t exactly a missed call, since the umpire made up for it, but how does a linesman not call that?
• Third quarter, Jimmy Clausen grounds it, no doubt at all. The NBC announcers, of course ruminate for a full minute on how “it was probably close enough” to the line of scrimmage. If it doesn’t pass the line of scrimmage, there is no “close enough.”
• With 3:40 left in the third quarter, Michigan has the ball on ND’s 5. Kevin Grady is stopped for a 1-yard gain, and fumbles. His forward progress had been stopped for a good period of time before the fumble. For those who say it shouldn’t have been ruled forward progress because Grady had carried a guy into the endzone earlier in the game: you’re wrong. On the first play, Grady never stopped moving forward (and was hardly even slowed down). On the second play, Grady was wrapped up low by one Irish, and high by two, with his forward progress completely stoppped, when one of the guys up top strips him. It’s a completely different situation, which should result in a completely different call from the officials.
• With 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, David Bruton makes an interception for the Irish. On the return, he is brought down by David Molk. Molk is called for a horse collar tackle (at least I think so, the NBC coverage was awful). However, what Molk did (grab and release the back of Bruton’s jersey, causing Bruton to lose his balance and fall down) is not at all a horse collar (definition: grabbing the inside of a ball-carrier’s shoulder pads and riding him to the ground). I don’t know how the refs could make such an egregious error on a 15-yard penalty.

Of course, Michigan beat themselves in this game, and they certainly had opportunities to win the game themselves. However, couple all of the above (9 possible mistakes by officials, with at least 3-4 being definite mistakes) with the following Michigan mistakes:

• Following the Molk chop block, Steven Threet and Brandon Minor conspire to fumble the ball inside their own 20, giving Notre Dame a short field. Michigan’s defense can’t stop the Irish.
• On the ensuing kickoff, Michael Shaw muffs the ball, giving Notre Dame yet another short field, on which they convert.
• Donovan Warren, Stevie Brown, and John Thompson all miss tackles on Golden Tate, ultimately resulting in a Notre Dame touchdown.
• Steven Threet fumbles a snap once the torrential downpour begins, which the Irish return for a touchdown.
• Nick Sheridan. Egregious Interceptions. obvs. He completed all five passes he threw, but two of them were to the guys in blue shirts.

…and you have a recipe for disaster that is unlikely to be repeated again.

Notre Dame had no sustained drives, and was outgained 388-260. They also had every single fumble of their own bounce right back to their own players (the exact opposite of what happened to Michigan).

The Wolverines should look at Saturday’s contest with an optimistic light, and Notre Dame fans should be fearful that their win was little more than a fluke.

Posted under Analysis

The Situation
Thanks to a pair of fumbles giving the Irish offense short fields, Michigan trails Notre Dame 14-0. Now, a particularly questionable pass interference call on Donovan Warren has resulted in an Irish 1st and 10 on Michigan’s 48 yard line. Michigan’s defense needs a big stop to prevent the Wolverines from being blown out early.

The Personnel and Formation
The Irish line up with only one wide receiver (Golden Tate). They have two tight ends on the right side of the line, and a weak offset I-formation backfield. This is a clear running formation. To counter, Michigan comes out in their base 4-3. Morgan Trent is the corner lined up over Tate, and Donovan Warren is on the other side. Stevie Brown is 8 yards off the line of scrimmage at free safety, and Brandon Harrison is 15 yards deep as the strong safety.

The Play
Jimmy Clausen gives a play-action fake to Robert Hughes on a counter. Notre Dame leaves 9 men in pass protection, which leaves only one receiver running the route. Golden Tate runs a slant-and-go pattern, cutting in before going straight up the field. Clausen heaves the ball towards Tate, who has 2-3 yards on both Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison. Tate reels in the ball on the 5 yard line, and waltzes into the endzone untouched.

Why it Worked
The blame for this touchdown does not fall on Stevie Brown. Repeat: Stevie Brown is not culpable. He wasn’t exactly stellar the rest of the day, but don’t rag on the kid for this touchdown. Our good friend GSimmons (a high school DC who runs Shafer’s 3-4 Okie package as his base defense and also knows much more about football than I ever will) lets us know that it appears Michigan is running a read-2 defense, which is a form of cover-2-like-substance. Morgan Trent sees Tate head inside, leading him to believe that Tate will not be a deep vertical threat. Because of this error in judgment, Trent does not cover a deep half, which allows Tate to get behind the defenders. By the time Trent and Harrison realize their error, Tate has enough space to make an easy touchdown grab. Charlie Weis’s decided schematic advantage (which apparently is not yakety saks after all) held true this once, as this was a perfect play call against this type of defense.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis

Massey from Buckeye Commentary offer his thoughts on Michigan’s game. My views on OSU’s game can be found over there.

Michigan – Notre Dame

What I saw…
…was something no Wolverine fan wanted to see. A collapse in the biggest game of the year, to date. (And, before you jump down my throat, I know a collapse when I see one after attending Ohio State’s last three debacles on the national stage.)The big game meltdown practically became a trademark of Rodriguez before he left West Virginia. You do not have to look any further than the Mountaineers last regular season game in 2007.

I also watched a game eerily reminiscent of the Buckeyes’ blowout loss at the hands of the Trojans. Decent defense hampered by horrendous offense and turnovers.

I have no love for Michigan but they are a better team than Notre Dame. Their personnel is better at virtually every position save quarterback and some offensive line spots. The defenses should not be mentioned in the same sentence. Yet, they were never really in this game. Sure they piled up more yards, but the mistakes were crippling and immediate. After ten minutes, Notre Dame was averaging 3 points/play (7 plays = 21 points).

I know I said it last time, but I continue to be impressed with McGuffie.

What I Didn’t see…
…was an offense that can offer any support to the defense. The seven consecutive second-half possessions ending in punts or turnovers was, well, OSU-esque. As of right now, Michigan is 9-for-37 on third down. That’s 24%. Whoa.

I also did not see any progress from Nick Sheridan. I take it all back. In my review of the Utah game, I said Sheridan would eventually take over as the starter. Judging from these last two weeks, I could not be more wrong. I will not be surprised if you have seen the last of him for a while now. Why bother playing him?

Who I watched …
…McGuffie was hard to ignore. Why? Because his main competition fumbled away opportunities to get reps. The other four RBs only had 10 carries while McGuffie received 25 carries and caught four passes. That means he touched the ball on almost half of the Wolverines offensive plays (29 of 70, 42%).

What I expect next week…
…is a lot of practice holding onto the ball. I know the weather was nasty in the second half when most of the turnovers occurred, but the Irish managed to hold onto it. Aside from that, I would be willing to bet that Threet and McGuffie get plenty of reps together in practice in order to build timing and backfield cohesiveness. They have to be the starting backfield at this point. There are no other viable options. They should receive 90% of the work. Michigan needs to take advantage of this bye week with the back-to-back home games versus Wisconsin and Illinois up next.

What this can tell us about The Game…
Michigan is lot farther from beating Ohio State than the Buckeyes’ dismal performance in Los Angeles might suggest. Ohio State has trouble protecting the quarterback against an aggressive defense. Michigan, on the other hand, did not sack Clausen last week after registering 8 in 2007. If the Wolverines cannot get through that offensive line, I have little faith that they will be able to penetrate OSU’s porous unit.

It also tells me that Rodriguez needs to prove that he can win the most important games on the schedule, whether they be generated by circumstance or rivalry. I have not seen that from him yet.

Posted under Analysis

Posted under Analysis

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Southern Cal	—
2	Oklahoma	—
3	Florida	1
4	Georgia	1
5	Texas	1
6	LSU	1
7	Penn State	1
8	Missouri	1
9	Wisconsin	1
10	Ohio State	5
11	East Carolina	5
12	Oklahoma State	2
13	South Florida	2
14	Brigham Young	12
15	Auburn	4
16	Utah	1
17	Texas Tech	1
18	Oregon	5
19	Kansas	1
20	Alabama	8
21	Wake Forest	3
22	West Virginia	—
23	Fresno State	3
24	Miami (Florida)	1
25	Illinois	2

Posted under BlogPoll