Michigan lost a home game to a MWC team, so you can expect that I’m disappointed/angry/horrified, etc.

However, I have to say I’m actually encouraged by today’s game.

• After the defensive players realized that the season had started, and they should probably, you know, play football, that unit completely dominated.
• The offense was pretty bad. The line was decent for the players that are left one it, but they’ll need to improve over the course of the season if Michigan is going to be successful. The QB was pretty bad, but some of it was first-game jitteriness, and some was being rattled by the QB pressure. There should be an improvement by the QBs next week against a much worse defense.
• The special teams were very good. Nice to see Lopata nail a career-long FG, and see multiple kicks (an extra point and a punt) blocked. What’s scary is that I only see this unit getting better during the year.

Of course, it’s always a disappointment to lose, but I saw it coming, so it doesn’t sting as much as maybe it should. Lowered expectations lead to a happier postgame feeling. If the defense can play all year like it did in the second half, I expect this team to be top-25 quality (even if the record won’t reflect that until much later in the year). If the offense can come around, this could be a decent year in Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

Action since last rankings:
8-23-08 Iowa gains commitment from Brandon Wegher.
8-26-08 Illinois gains commitment from Hugh Thornton.
8-29-08 Michigan gains commitments from Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne.

Also, a programming note: Friday Night Lights might be delayed until Sunday this week because I’ll be working at the game all day today. Shouldn’t matter much, especially since Michigan’s newest commits don’t play until Saturday anyway.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

Pahokee, FL teammates Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne have both announced their intentions to sign letters of intent to Michigan in February. The duo announced their respective decisions today, instead of their original plan, which had them announcing at their team’s game against Olive Branch (MS) tomorrow. Smith is a 5-9, 170-lb running back, and Hawthorne is a 6-0, 185-lb linebacker who boasts a 4.7 40-yard dash.

Recruiting Notes
Michigan fans first became aware of Pahokee High School when slot receiver Martavious Odoms joined the class of 2008 in February. They quickly learned of Odoms’s younger teammates, including WR Nu’Keese Richardson (Florida commit) and Smith and Hawthorne. Smith was the first of the two added to the board, when he reported in March that he was about to receive a Michigan offer. That offer became public in June, and Hawthorne was added to the recruiting board shortly thereafter, when he placed Michigan in his top two, despite not reporting an offer. In early July, Brandin stated that he wouldn’t make a school decision until after he had taken his official visits. However, in the middle of July, both he and Smith stated that they would announce their college decisions on August 30th at their game against Olive Branch. At the end of July, the duo started dropping none-too-subtle hints that Michigan would be the choice for both Blue Devils. Towards the end of August, both Hawthorne and Smith announced that they had set up 5 official visits, though they still planned to announce on August 30th (an announcement that they subsequently moved forward by one day). With the final choice of Michigan, it is unlikely that they will have spots reserved for them in the class if they still intend to take officials to schools other than Michigan. The runners-up for Smith were Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Tennessee. finishing in second for Hawthorne was Louisville.

Player Notes
Both players may be considered slightly undersized for their positions, though Rich Rodriguez has focused on adding speed to the team first, and will likely worry about size and speed in future classes. Smith projects as yet another RB/Slot combo, with his diminutive stature and decent quickness. Hawthorne is probably going to end up as a weakside linebacker unless he has a pretty significant growth spurt. He will have to add a ton of mass to play linebacker, and hopefully he won’t lose too much speed doing so in Mike Barwis’s program.

Video

Pahokee’s spring game, courtesy of our friends at SoFLAFootball.com. Unfortunately, the video quality is a little too low to get any great detail.

The Vincent Smith Story from PrepTicket.

Etc.
With a pipeline to Pahokee High School now firmly established, Michigan is likely to go after Doral Willis, a top defensive tackle/offensive line prospect in the class of 2010. In addition, Nu’Keese Richardson, who liked Michigan early in the process but is a Florida commit, has expressed interest in visiting Ann Arbor with Smith and Hawthorne this year. Both Smith and Hawthorne have stated that plan to enroll at Michigan in January.

Posted under Recruiting

For the last 9 months, I’ve been obsessively reading everything I can find about the football team. I’ve tried to make it to as many events as possible. I’ve done everything I could to figure out what Michigan is going to look like tomorrow.

I have no clue.

The floor for this team is lower than I want to admit and lower than most Michigan fans have ever experienced. One or two injuries in the wrong places and the Wolverines are conference basement dwellers. The ceiling could be as high as second in the conference. I can’t see Michigan winning more than 10 games (11 with the bowl), but I can also easily see 7-8 losses.

This is something Michigan fans don’t deal with. High expectations dashed to bits by poor performance or predictable play calling, sure. But there’s always that knowledge that Michigan will win most of its games and play in a bowl game, that except for maybe one or two games, they are the better team on the field. I don’t feel that safety net this year.

Maybe that’s why I am more excited for this game than any Michigan game since I’ve been a student. Even the Epic Greatest Game Ever of the Week 2006 OSU game, which lived up to it’s billing. That was big for a game. Michigan vs. Utah is a game for a generation. I get to be in the stands at the biggest epoch in 40 years for arguably the greatest program in college football.

It’s a new, uncomfortable yet envigorating feeling. It’s an amazing time to be a Michigan fan.

And for the love of God, wear a maize shirt.

Posted under Coaching

As I noted in our summer preview of Utah, the Utes are probably going to be among the better teams that Michigan plays this year. Speaking with Daily Utah Chronicle writer Tony Pizza didn’t dissuade me from that position.

Utah has experience on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Brian Johnson is finally healthy after suffering a multitude of injuries over the past two years. The offense should hum along, and the defense should be competent. The run defense appears to be a bit of a weakness for Utah, with a light group of starters on the line. That is probably how Michigan will primarily move the ball, especially with the quarterback situation still not settled.

Marquis Wilson, as predicted in the summer, is suspended for this game (and in fact, the entire year). One other thing that may give Michigan fans a bit of hope is the poor job Utah did defending the option against Navy last year. I predicted that they wouldn’t be able to defend our option all that well before even seeing the stats. Navy ran for 316 yards on Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and managed to pass for 122 yards, 30 more than their season average.

The key for Michigan is to get a fast start. If they can get the first score, and a bit of momentum going, they should be able to take control of the game. Even a score on special teams on the opening kick could help make Utah think “Jesus these guys are good!” (Note: I usually think scoring on the opening kick is a disadvantage, because it makes the scoring team complacent. However, I think this Michigan team has something to prove in game one, and Utah may be fearing an obvious talent disparity). Utah has developed something of a reputation for road game chokes against BCS teams early in the season under Whittingham, and any sign that they are in for another round of the same may make the team fold.

Predictions:
Michigan’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard, but they will be surprisingly competent.
Michigan’s defense won’t live up to the 1997/2006-ish expectations that are being thrust upon it.
Michigan walks away the victor (barely) in a fairly low-scoring battle, winning 23-20.

What say you, fair fans of Varsity Blue?

Posted under Analysis

The part with the videos.

Now that we’ve familiarized ourselves with some of Shafer’s credential’s, let’s delve into some tape from last year’s Cardinal and take a look at his schemes (spoiler alert: lots of blitzing).

Shafer runs a multiple-front defense, with a base 4-3. Against spread-type offenses, he’ll use a package called the “3-4 Okie” which, as the name implies, is a 3-4 scheme. The purpose of the Okie scheme is to disguise defenses so the offense can never tell who is actually blitzing on a given play. Often, on of the linebacker positions will be manned by a safety (or a LB/S hybrid) for a sort of 3-3-5 look, but with two safeties high.

4-3
One of Shafer’s favorite blitzes from the 4-3 stack is a dual-OLB fire.

There are also several other blitzes where he will send at least one linebacker, but often more.

3-4 Okie
The design of this package is intended to confuse the offense into not knowing who will rush on a given play. For much more on the Okie, read up on it over at 3 and Out, run by an MGoBlog commenter/high school coach who runs the Okie as his base package.

Risks
While an aggressive defense can help generate pressure on the quarterback, there are also disadvantages. For example, if the defense overpursues, they will be vulnerable to misdirection, such as counter runs and screen passes. In addition, if the pressure package doesn’t get to the quarterback, there isn’t going to be as much help in the secondary. An aggressive blitz scheme can often leave the secondary in man coverage.

When you have the athletes to match up (which Michigan will in most of its games this year), it can work to your advantage. However, it can create mismatches for the offense to exploit.

Losing to the Irish
For those worrying about how Shafer lost to Notre Dame, there is a little bit of reassurance to be had. For one thing, The Irish had a drive that was all of 14 yards, and the other two scoring drives were aided by big plays that were the result of poor execution (or simply not having the talent that Notre Dame boasts), not poor scheming.

Ed. Note: Thanks to Mike Gleeson, Stanford Video Coordinator for the game film, and to VB über-commenter RJ for hooking me up with Gleeson.

Posted under Coaching, Video

The board can be found here. I’m still trying to decide which days/how often to post recruiting updates. Until I settle into something of a rhythm during the season, I’ll just post them as the post fills up.

New Information:
MI WR Cameron Gordon. He is in no hurry to make a decision. I wonder ig Michigan will pursue him a little stronger now that they want his 2010 teammate Devin Gardner.
TN WR/DB Marsalis Teague. He may take a Michigan visit.
MI TE Dion Sims. Still hasn’t made up his mind, but his current choice is basketball over football.
GA TE Terrell Mitchell. Michigan is outside his top 3 (SoCar, WVU, Kentucky). With the Wolverines not really planning on taking a pure TE, he may be close to removal from the board.
CA OL Michael Philipp. USC starts showing some interest.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Michigan will make his next cut (Sam Webb Audio). Sounds like Michigan made quite an impression on his visit.
NJ DE Anthony LaLota. No longer planning an early decision, Michigan official tentatively scheduled for Wisconsin game (Sam Webb Audio, same as above).
AZ DE Craig Roh. Sam Webb fluff from the Detroit News. Remember, Roh is officially visiting this week.
SC S David Sims. Michigan out of his top 5. It’s unclear from the article whether that is “top” or “final,” so he remains on the board for now.
Also: Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne have moved up their announcement(s) from their game Saturday to tomorrow.

Removed:
KY DE Trevor Foy. He is down to a final 2 of Purdue and Louisville.
MD OL Brennan Williams. Down to a final 3 that doesn’t include Michigan.

Etc.:
MI DT commit William Campbell:Uh… yeah.
IN LB Commit Jordan Barnes. Fluff from the hometown paper.
Plantation, FL guys all plan to graduate early, take the info just in case Michigan nabs one of them.

Etc.:
If anyone manages to catch the Miami (Oh) game against Vanderbilt tonight, e-mail me your thoughts. I’s on ESPNU and I won’t be able to make it somewhere to watch.

Posted under Recruiting

Paul posted a list of guidelines for those fortunate enough to sit in the student section for Michigan games, and Maize N Blue Nation has responded. What should those fans relegated to the rest of the stadium do? Check it out here.

I’d like to contribute the following addenda (while strongly endorsing the “be kind to opposing fans” and “support the team with noise” points):

• Wear maize. I don’t care if you have a vintage Tom Brady Orange Bowl jersey. Wear it at the tailgate or in front of the TV. A maize shirt costs you a maximum of 16 dollars (and even that’s only if you get the official T-shirt). Wear it.
• If a play that you predicted is called (successful or otherwise), don’t gloat or say “I told you so.” It pretty much just makes you “that guy.”
• If you know the answer to a question the people around you are searching for, tell them. That said, don’t act like an asshole know-it-all.
• Support the team, the cheerleaders, the band, and everything that makes Michigan’s gameday unique and amazing.

Enjoy yourselves. Only 3 more days until the Best Time of Year.

Posted under Analysis

Defensive Coordinator Scott Shafer hasn’t been discussed nearly as much as OC Calvin Magee, mostly because Magee has always been by Rich Rodriguez’s side, and it is a little more obvious to see what he has done in his career.

However, Shafer is an accomplished coordinator himself, known for an aggressive style that calls for blitzes frequently. In fact, Shafer’s teams have led the nation in sacks on an occasion or two. Let’s take a look at Shafer’s years as defensive coordinator.

After a year as the secondary coach at Illinois (where he coached CB Kelvin Hayden into a second-round draft pick), Shafer returned to the defensive coordinator position, this time at Western Michigan.

It was at Western Michigan that Shafer worked the most magic. The Broncos improved in every relevant category in Shafer’s very first year (the decline in total pass defense can be attributed to more attempts, as the Bronco’s run defense was immediately upgraded), often by a very large margin. By his second year in Kalamazoo, Shafer’s Western defense was #11 in all the land, despite giving up 39 points in their first game of the season (to Indiana). He turned Ameer Ismail, an OLB who wasn’t even sniffed by the NFL, into the nation’s leading sacker.

Stanford was another case of Shafer making an impact in year one. Of course, there is the marquee moment of the Cardinal’s upset over USC (they were one of only 3 teams to hold the Trojans to under 24 points), but the team improved overall during the course of the season as well. The big improvement, once more, was in terms of pass sacks. Keep in mind that these improvements took place against teams with far more talent than Stanford (UCLA, Oregon, Notre Dame, Cal), and it’s easy to see why people are excited about Shafer wearing the maize and blue. One thing to point out, however, is that his pass efficiency defense has always taken a step back in year one. With returning corners, but new safeties, it should be interesting to monitor how that goes. One would expect, with more pressure on the quarterback, that efficiency would go down.

For those questioning Shafer’s “Michigan Man” credentials, there are a few pieces of evidence to the contrary. First, he was an assistant at Western Michigan for two years, and is familiar with the state dynamics. Secondly, there is a rather incredible story linking Shafer to Bo Schembechler since Scott’s much younger days. It’s a good read, and I recommend checking it out.

Posted under Coaching

As a four year veteran of the student section, I’ve seen a lot of awesome things in the student section as well as some things I wish I could forget. In order to make the student section as good as possible I’m going to share some tips to emphasize the good and hopefully prevent the bad.

1. Dress Appropriately: First of all, for students, there are no special Maize Out games. Every game is a Maize Out, so wear your football t-shirt or other appropriate yellow garment (the disgusting mustard color from discount sporting goods stores is discouraged, but better than nothing). Also, the first few games of the year will test your endurance in intense heat and sun. I suggest either copious amounts of sun block or a stylish maize hat. If you are a hot girl, maize bathing suits are acceptable. Later in the year, especially with 3:30 starts, the game will begin warm and then get very chilly by the end (think ’04 MSU). Wear layers, always making sure the outer layer is maize.
2. Be in Game Shape: I don’t mean this athletically, but fans do have certain responsibilities and you can’t cheer and scream if you’re passed out standing up. Some people enjoy pre-gaming or tailgating (I’ve been known to), but it’s important to keep it within reason in order to enjoy the game. Remember: by the second half you’re past drunk and entering hang over.
3. Be Prepared: Especially with the early season games, I’ll grab a dollar bill and a hand full of change before I head to the stadium. Usually on Hoover, I’ll stop and buy a water, but I won’t open it. You will always be able to get un-opened water bottles into the stadium. Then, safely in the stands, I replenish my fluids, insert the coins into the water bottle and have a very effective noise maker.
4. You’re with Students: The student section is not part of the family game day atmosphere. It is a teeming mass of 17-24 year olds hopped up on booze, hormones and fanaticism. Four letter words ought not be discouraged unless used in the least creative cheer ever (within the confines of the student section). That being said, mean-spirited slurs directed at opposing players or other fans are not cool.
5. The Others: I’ve been to a few away games, but not in the stands at the schools who hate Michigan the most. It’s fun and usually those fans that travel are really great college football fan who most of us can relate to. That being said, if they are in the student section, jokes made about their intelligence, economic standing, sexual preference, sexual deviancy, facial hair, etc. drawn from widely accepted facts about their university are acceptable within reason. Getting in their faces after Michigan scores or physical attacks are bush league and not acceptable. You can support your team without giving its fans a bad reputation. This also means that outside the student section (and outside the stadium), you should a least be tolerant of other schools’ fans.
6. Comfortable Shoes: The only acceptable times to sit down are before the band takes the field for pre-game, half time (unless the band does something exceptionally awesome) and after the game if you like being trampled. Also, if you hear The Victors, you should be standing, clapping, fist pumping, and singing: no exceptions.
7. Don’t Be That Guy: If you are sitting below row 80 and hear a cow bell and say anything related to the Christopher Walken sketch on SNL lampooning “Don’t Fear the Reaper” by Blue Oyster Cult, I hate you. Freshman year it’s acceptable and funny for the first few games. Beyond that, seriously, that sketch was on like 8 years ago. Sure there isn’t a lot of cowbell-centric humor out there, but don’t just retread. Same thing goes for waving your Key-card on 3rd down. Not only is it not funny, it takes all that is bad with “key play” and leaves all the good (the pleasant jingling).
8. Don’t Be That Brah: If you come in past kick-off, don’t expect to sit exactly where your tickets tell you your seats are. Actually, never expect that. Being off by one row or having to sit back towards the endzone slightly more doesn’t matter. You’ll enjoy the game just the same as well as not coming off as dick.
9. Be Loud: Before every play on defense there should be such a raucous cacophony coming from the student section the offense just gives up and the QB punts on first down. Maybe this will never happen, but it is still the goal. Participation in all cheers is somewhere between mandatory and strongly encouraged. Take your breaks on a second down when Michigan has the ball. If you insist on participating in the “key play” nonsense, at least make a reasonable amount of other noise as well.
10. Stay Positive: It makes the game much less fun when you’re bitching about every play on offense that isn’t a first down and every play on defense that isn’t a turnover. Games ebb and flow, stay centered maaaaan… If you really can’t help being negative, start making $1 bets with the person next to you (e.g. “$1 says we’re running a zone stretch left”). Either way you’ll lose.

If you have any suggestions for surviving and thriving in the student section, please leave them in the comments.

Posted under Analysis