This team can’t come from behind.

This team can’t win on the road.

This team can’t make the NCAA tournament.

Yes. We. Can.

Photo via Nothing is Illuminated.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers today at Noon (Eastern, 11AM local). The game, which is, like, super-important for tournament chances, can be seen live from The Barn on the ESPN machine.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Michigan gave fans hope for a tourney berth (the one they’ve been dangling in front of us on a string attached to a fishing pole for much of the year), by blowing out Minnesota in a game that wasn’t even nearly as close as the 12-point margin would indicate. Zack Novak blew the roof off Crisler from distance, and the rest of the team wasn’t so shabby themselves. Manny was limited with some foul trouble, and Sims wasn’t a huge factor from the paint (see: Minnesota’s enormous, shot-blocking big men), but everyone stepped up to get the job done, including Kelvin Grady.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan dropped road games to Iowa and Wisconsin, sandwiched around beating Purdue in Crisler Arena. They have gotten generally better on offense (mostly on account of hot shooting days against the Gophers and Boilermakers), while also getting slightly better on defense (mostly because they owned the Gophers in Crisler).

Minnesota won home games over Northwestern and Wisconsin, while dropping a roadie to Illinois. The defense has improved significantly in that short range, while the offense, a point of complaint for Gophers fans for much of the year, has continued its slide. Perhaps importantly for this game, they’ve turned the ball over more than they had been, and forced fewer turnovers by opponents than they had been prior to the Michigan game. Their defensive rebounding percentage has improved ever so slightly from “abysmal,” and they’ve managed to maintain their #1 block percentage in the intermediary.

And…?

If Michigan can win this road game, they nearly have a berth locked up, unless they choke one away in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. If Minnesota can win, they probably have earned themselves a berth as well. Needless to say, this game is huge for both teams. Sadly, I don’t see the Wolverines coming home with a win, especially considering their struggles away from home this year. HOWEVA, that isn’t to say all hope is lost. An inconsistent team can lose to anybody, but they can also beat anybody.

KenPom predicts a 66-61 Minneosta win in a 63-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 28% chance of emerging with the win in Williams Arena.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

The shooting data can be founf in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Not a bad shooting game, but holy hell look at that terrible differential number.

Didn’t get very much run at all. Had 1 legit and 1 crap moving screen go against him in the first half, and I think the foul trouble and the shaken confidence it gave him combined to keep him from playing too much.

His shooting wasn’t particularly bad, especially considering many of those misses in the paint should have been called fouls, but he made some really bad decisions. Way too many “1”s.

grumble grumble running set plays for CJ to shoot 3s grumble grumble. Also, the shifts in which he didn’t play were ALL positive except for one.

Had a pretty good differential, but missed a few shots that he had absolutely no business missing. I’m coming to realize that he should be utilized more as a slasher in addition to a shooter (a role in which he’s recently struggled). And no, I’m not kidding.

Man, if this guy could just shoot as well every game as he did against Minnesota.

Surprisingly, he was one of the few people not in on a negative shift. Of course, that is largely because he barely played at al..

Was a victim of the poor officiating (though not nearly as much as Manny), but other than that, had a lackluster day.

grumble don’t shoot grumble. Played decently enough.

DNP – coach’s decision.

On the Officiating

After people’s reactions in the comments, I thought I might have been a bit harsh in my criticism of the officiating in this game. Upon further Review, I’m even madder than before. Of course, bad calls went both ways, but Michigan by far got the shorter end of the stick. I don’t want to become a boy who cried wolf, so I’m going to refrain from mntioning officiating in the future unless it’s particularly egregious (as it was in this game), but I stand by my previous comments that this game was one of the most poorly reffed I’ve seen all year – and that’s saying something.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Hockey, Misc.

Apologies for the lack of posting today, as I’m on the road. In the meantime, take a look at this uncharacteristically heartfelt (though characteristically well-written) basketball post by Dex at WLA, and Dylan’s Minnesota preview at UMhoops. My preview will probably be coming later this afternoon, so roll back around later tonight.

Posted under Blog News

I haven’t had a chance to re-watch and score the data for these three games, but that shouldn’t prevent me from posting the (admittedly late) differential data. When I get a chance to grade the shooting, I’ll post those up as well.

Iowa

Half 1

Half 2

OT

Purdue

Half 1

Half 2

Wisconsin

Half 1

Half 2

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

A series exploring the commitments (and subsequent decommitments) of Michigan’s lost members of the class of 2009.

The Commitment
DeWayne Peace first burst onto the scene for Michigan fans when he attended the Rich Rodriguez Skills Camp in Ann Arbor over the summer of 2008. At the time, he had performed well at Kansas’s summer camp as well, and the Jayhawks were thought to be his heavy favorite. However, within a few weeks of visiting Michigan, Peace offered his verbal commitment to the Wolverines on June 25th. Peace was told that he would have an opportunity to prove himself as a wide receiver at Michigan, but that there was also a chance he would end up at defensive back. It was in the secondary that he had distinguished himself at camp, and where the coaching staff eventually saw him ending up.

The Decommitment
After more than 6 months of being committed to Michigan, and weeks of rumors, Peace withdrew his verbal commitment to Michigan on January 8th. Though Peace’s father reportedly insisted that DeWayne remain true to his word, in the end, he did not see himself playing for Michigan. The main reason behind this change of heart was a matter of position: the coaching staff wanted Peace to play corner, while he wanted be a wideout. It would follow logically (though it is unconfirmed, of course), that Peace was told he would play corner for Michigan or he would not play for Michigan at all.

The Impact
Obviously, the coaching staff realized that they weren’t as high on Peace as they had thought all along. If he was a highly-valued recruit, they wouldn’t have given him such an ultimatum, and he may have still ended up in Ann Arbor down the road. However, the coaching staff didn’t see much harm in shedding him from the class, and gave him the ultimatum. As Rodriguez himself said at his Signing Day Press Conference: “Sometimes a kid does you a favor when he decommits,” and Peace was likely one of these players. He ended up committing to the Wildcats of Arizona as a wide receiver.

Senior Year Stats

Video

Posted under Football, Recruiting

In this Blogcast, Tim gives you an overview of all the new Wolverines. If you have any ideas for future blogcasts, let us know in the comments.

 

 Varsity Blue Podcast for 2/25/2009: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Blogcast, Personnel

Polls are in. Somehow Michigan stills shows up in three of them. Your guess is as good as mine on how we didn’t even drop in the Collegiate Baseball poll. The Coaches’ Poll (USA Today/ESPN) last week was technically the preseason, so our initial start is why we went up. Also, we faced two of the coaches voting in that poll, in Jacksonville’s Alexander Terry (who we beat 21-3 and lost 10-2) and St. John’s Ed Blankenmeyer (a team we shut down despite their being an offensive juggernaut). Another note, while pointless right now, I included the Ping! Poll in the chart. May we one day be in it.

*In others receiving votes section

BigTenHardball details their all weekend team. I can’t argue with any omissions like I did last week with collegebaseball360. BTH’s Brian does some quality work. Dufek might have warranted a honorable mention for his work in the bullpen, but it wasn’t that much of an oversight. Michigan showed up as follows.

• 2B – Kevin Cislo
• OF – Ryan LaMarre
• BN – Anthony Toth
• BN – Jake McLouth
• 4th SP – Chris Fetter

Something else stands out in the list, and the rankings for that matter: Ohio State has come out of near nowhere to start the season and is playing some high quality ball. I figured them to be a candidate to vie with Indiana for third in the conference, but now… watch out.

Pythagorean Theorem. Happy Valley Hardball put out their first look at the Pythagorean Theorem for team winning percentages. The idea is that expected winning percentage is a function of runs scored and runs allowed. Currently Michigan shows up as third best in the conference, in a power poll sort of way. The emphasis on Penn State is obviously his.

	Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Pyth %	Delta
1	Ohio State	67	42	0.718	-0.282
2	Illinois	47	31	0.697	-0.136
3	Michigan.	73	58	0.613	-0.165
4	Indiana	38	31	0.600	0.000
5	Minnesota	40	35	0.566	-0.148
6	Purdue	42	45	0.466	0.132
7	Michigan St	23	37	0.279	0.112
8	Penn State	25	42	0.262	-0.024
9	Northwestern	29	52	0.237	-0.013
10	Iowa	22	58	0.126	-0.041

Loss to Jacksonville Looks Better.  I didn’t say good, but Jacksonville beat #6 Florida State in the midweek matchup.  As stated previously, midweek games can really hurt teams.  Another case this week was Indiana losing to Indiana State.  Just beating some of these teams will lower our RPI later in the season, losing will really hurt.  I still think we’ll lose one or two of these games later in the season, including one against Notre Dame.

Baseball Programming Update. I’ve got another pretty busy weekend planned this time around. I plan to have the Siena update out late Thursday night. I’m not sure what I’m going to do for the Mets. If anything comes out in the weekly release, I’ll be sure to let you know. It should be out today or tomorrow.

Posted under Baseball

TX RB Chris Parr, who I’d previously noted has something of a reputation of being a troublemaker, has landed himself in hot water again, this time beating up a 14-year old. I don’t want anything to do with the kid, and I’d assume the staff feels the same way. As far as character risks go, I don’t think this staff would take a kid like Parr, and certainly not while they have many other attractive options on their radar (and after the grief they’ve taken about Chris Henry and Pacman Jones since the move to Michigan). He’s been removed from the board, though I will admit he takes a good mugshot.

Florida has offered FL OL Leon Orr, and it sounds like that’s the place he really wants to end up. He hasn’t committed yet, but he gets an imaginary frowny face icon.

PA DE/LB Dakota Royer is starting to get his recruiting process squared away, and he has numerous offers as well as a list of favorites:

“It was very good … They are up there right now,” said Royer, who has offers from Maryland, Penn State, Colorado, Notre Dame, Illinois, Stanford, UConn, Michigan State, Kentucky and Rutgers.

“Maryland, Pitt, Penn State, Michigan State, Notre Dame — those are my top [schools],” he said.

No Michigan mention, in terms of interest from either side. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he popped up on the Wolverine radar soon – if only to show Little Brother who’s boss.

KS DE/LB Geneo Grissom (already on the board) is indeed getting interest from Michigan. The linked article regards his attendance at the Jayhawks’ junior day.

Are you interested in the latest news on TX LB Caleb LaVey? Then CalebLavey.com is the website for you! His “Recruiting” page indicates he is receiving interest from Michigan (but he does not mention an offer), so he has been added to the board. I assume the site won’t be the most enlightening in terms of details about his recruitment (a la qbforce.com), but thus far it seems to be updated enough to be relevant, so hopefully his dad (who is listed as the contact, and I assume is the one operating the site) will update it frequently.

Michigan leads for PA CB Cullen Christian. They are far ahead of most of the competition, and he visits campus the weekend of March 19th. He has plans to set up visits with several other schools on his list, as well. Christian also thinks he won’t make a final decision until his senior season, giving those schools a chance to play catch-up.

It looks like I should be ready to remove SC DB DeAndre Hopkins from the board. It appears as though he’s highly likely to make a commitment to Clemson at their junior day this weekend. He’ll stay on the board for now in the event that the commitment doesn’t come to fruition.

Lastly, I want to mention (since I’ve been forgetting to do so since the news broke about 3 weeks ago) that FL WR Commit Ricardo Miller is planning to transfer out of Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando, and up to Ann Arbor Huron for his senior season. This, obviously, would unite him with fellow WR Commit Jeremy Jackson. That would be a pretty good tandem in the world of SE Michigan high school football. Speaking of Jackson, I found this interview of him on a random blog, whose credibility I can’t vouch for. Take it for what it’s worth.

Big Back Huntin’
With Brandon Minor graduating after the 2009 season, Michigan will likely be in search of another big, powerful back in his mold. Currently, Mike Cox is the only player on the roster who even comes close to being the style of running back that Minor is. Though all the rumblings out of last year’s team indicated that Cox was performing well with the scout team, Only having one bruiser on the roster might not be the most successful gameplan.

On that note, Michigan recently offered GA RB Mack Brown (Scout header confirms), as well as SC RB Marcus Lattimore. Both fit in the “big back” mold of Brandon Minor, though Lattimore is the more highly-regarded prospect at this time, and may be more of a complete all-around player. Speaking of Lattimore, until recently he had planned to announce his decision at the Army All-American game. Now, he has changed his mind and will wait the extra month or so until Signing Day. From the tenor of that article, it would appear that South Carolina is a heavy favorite.

There is also mutual interest between The Wolverines and CA RB Dietrich Riley (info in header). I’ve added him to the board, and he also fits the bill of “big back.” And last in the big back parade is TX RB Stephen Hopkins. The Wolverines are showing him interest (info in header). I wonder if they want an inside runner in this class. Hmm…

Posted under Football, Recruiting

WTKA has the audio of my appearance on the Ann Arbor Big Show with John U. Bacon from yesterday posted on their podcasts page. If you missed the show yesterday, be sure to go check it out.

Unfortunately, we didn’t have a lot of time to actually talk about Michigan, so I got to discuss things like the Pistons and Synchronized Youth Figure Skating (seriously). It was still a lot of fun though, and hopefully I’ll have an opprtunity to do it again sometime.

Recruiting Update coming later this afternoon.

Posted under Blog News