In this edition of Stat Watch, we continue are look into the baseball teams offensive attack, but we start experimenting with pitching as well. I’ve also been playing with a new data/graphing system throughout the day, so graphs may show up and disappear as Paul and I work in the upgrade.

Hitting

The hitting stats are becoming more refined as batters are starting to accumulate at-bats. Our current at-bat leader (40 ABs) is Jake McLouth, who newly moved into the clean up position, has still yet to draw a walk this season. Cislo and Fellows pull up the rear with 31 ABs. I left Berset and Lorenz out of those numbers as they are replaced fairly consistently and have about 2/3 less the number of plate appearances as Cislo and Fellows.

The batting average didn’t quite make the jump you’d expect after winning a game 21-3 with 19 hits. Last week we ended with a .288 batting average; this week we end with a .291 average. Not much improvement right there.

As you can see, on-base-percentage also didn’t make a jump either. We actually lost .003 points down to .406 this week. This kind of comes off a little bit weird. I would have thought the Jacksonville 19-hit affair would have raised the percentage, but as they say, one game doesn’t make the season.

The rest of our games have been pretty abysmal in terms of hitting, and it shows in the following graph. What we have here is average hits (H/9), runs (R/9), walks (plus hit by pitch, BB/9), and strike outs (K/9) per 9 innings of hitting.

It’s encouraging to see our runs per nine innings going so high. It would be pretty high even if you took our 21 run game and made it 8, our current average, it would still have us scoring about 6.67 runs per game. That’s should be enough to compete well in any league… at least if our pitching keeps up their side of the deal.

I’d also like to point out the strike out’s per nine innings. That number has continued to grow as we’ve gone along, which is a definite problem. We’re currently averaging over a strike out per inning (9.11/9-innings). It’s killing several of our innings.

Lineup Changes

As mentioned in the weekend recap, we had a few lineup changes this weekend. Let’s take a little bit at a look why, just so you out there get a better idea of what’s going on. First, let’s look at McLouth vs Dufek.

On the left, we can see McLouth is hitting leaps and bounds above Dufek. Dufek is .182 points behind in average alone. In the slugging category, McLouth is averaging .279 more bases per at bat. In more basic terms, McLouth averages an extra single every 4 at bats he takes. That’s a very sizable gap.

This move places a better hitter behind our best player, Ryan LaMarre. By doing this, pitchers cannot pitch around and walk LaMarre without fear of giving up more runs. With Dufek struggling behind LaMarre, we may lose a few runs each game that his struggles continue.

The second move by Coach Maloney was to switch Anthony Toth and Kenny Fellows. Toth mainly batting in the 2-hole, as we can see in the graph below, was getting on consistently, but he was not able to put the ball in play and move the runners on base around or gather many RBIs.

Looking at the two players’ production, the on base numbers are currently very consistent, and both are rather good. The difference is the hitting, which Fellows has done better and more consistently better. Fellows is currently hitting .387, as compared to .250 for Toth.

By switching the two batters, Maloney is hoping that Toth will still continue his pace with walks, setting the table for the top of the order. The hope for Fellows is that he continues to hit and get on base, driving in more runs, moving the runners a head of him into scoring position, and still get on base to score for the heart of the order behind him.

The ideal inning would start with a Toth walk, a Cislo single on a hit and run putting runners at first and third, a Cislo steal right before a Fellows RBI single. LaMarre either walks or hits a double, followed by a McLouth double, and then either struggle through Dufek and Berset to try to eek out a last run before Lorenz comes up, as he’s statistically an out. That kind of inning is 5-7 runs, which are the kind of innings that win college baseball games.

Leader Board – Offense

Average		On Base%		Slugging%
Player	AVG	Player	OB%	Player	SLG%
Ryan LaMarre	.421	Kenny Fellows	.500	Ryan LaMarre	.711
Kenny Fellows	.387	T-Ryan LaMarre	.488	Jake McLouth	.650
Jake McLouth	.350	T-Kevin Cislo	.488	Nick Urban	.486
Runs Batted In		Runs		Walks + HBP
Player	RBI	Player	R	Player	BB/HBP
Ryan LaMarre	17	Kevin Cislo	13	T-Kevin Cislo	12
Jake McLouth	10	Anthony Toth	11	T-Anthony Toth	12
T-Toth/Fellows	7	Ryan LaMarre	9	Mike Dufek	8
Steals		Doubles		Home Runs
Player	SB	Player	2B	Player	HR
Kevin Cislo	5	Nick Urban	4	Jake McLouth	4
Ryan LaMarre	3	T-Kevin Cislo	3	Ryan LaMarre	3
Anthony Toth	2	T-John Lorenz	3	Mike Dufek	2

Pitching

And here’s where things get fun. Instead of showing trends, which don’t help much over 2 appearances or less than 15 innings, I think I’m going to look through some of the team statistics. This process may be adjusted to individual pitchers by the time the conference season rolls around.

Here we see the opponent batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. The opponent batting average is currently .306, the on base percentage is .343, and the slugging percentage is .442 for the season. The on base numbers aren’t too bad, which surprises the heck out of me. Its amazing how such a bad weekend can make you forget how great a weekend the BigEast/Big10 Challenge really was on the mound. Opponents are out hitting us and out slugging us this season, which is never a good sign. We should be looking to get that opponent average down into the .290s or less. On base percentages need to drop to the .310s at the highest, and slugging… well it has a lot of room for improvement.

In this chart we have the “per 9 innings” stats of our opponents accumulated through the season. This just breaks down the previous chart into reasons why we are getting out hit. Opponents average an extra .5 hits per game, which isn’t much, but we average about 1.5 more walks per game. We also strike out about one more time per game than our opponents. I would put ideal numbers to be at to be H/9 ~ 8, K/9 ~ 9, BB/9 ~ 2, and ERA around 4.00. Right now the ERA is pretty close to what we would want in a season, but we should never just settle. We should always strive to improve the numbers.

Leader Board – Pitching

Starter ERA		Innings		Starter Ks
Player	ERA	Player	INN	Player	Ks
Chris Fetter	1.64	Eric Katzman	11.2	Chris Fetter	13
Eric Katzman	3.09	Chris Fetter	11	Travis Smith	10
Travis Smith	4.70	Kolby Wood	10.2	All 3 others	6
Relief ERA		Relief App		Relief Ks
Player	ERA	Player	APP	Player	Ks
Mike Dufek	1.80	Tyler Burgoon	4	Matt Miller	11
Tyler Burgoon	3.12	T-Matt Miller	3	Mike Dufek	6
Matt Miller	3.86	T-Matt Gerbe	3	Tyler Burgoon	5
Oppon BA		Walks+HBP/9IP		Saves
Player	BA	Player	BB/HBP	Player	Sv
Mike Dufek	.125	Chris Fetter	2.45	T-Mike Dufek	1
Matt Miller	.185	T-Mike Dufek	3.6	T-Tyler Burgoon	1
Chris Fetter	.233	T-Brandon Sinnery	3.6*	T-Matt Miller	1

*This is the only stat Sinnery can claim he’s doing well in right now.

Next week I’ll look at some of these same stats and hopefully have some better news on the pitching front.  I plan on working into some more advance statistics as the season moves along, I’ve just been bogged down with other things.

Posted under Baseball

In a way, the game against Wisconsin on Sunday showed how similar to the 2008 football team John Beilein’s squad really is: there were flashes of brilliance, and certainly lots of reason to be hopeful for the future. However, despite a few good players, the team simply doesn’t have enough quality depth to win many of the games in which they come close. Unlike the football team though, it was slow starts and not-strong-enough finishes that doomed the team against the Badgers.

There were also similarities to the Michigan basketball teams under Tommy Amaker, in which the offense was disjointed for too long, and several possessions ended with a hopeless three thrown up to beat the buzzer.That contrasted with many other possessions, to be fair, in which the crisp passes and cuts opened up enormous shooting lanes for open threes or layups.

The refereeing was inconsistent yet again (as it seemingly always is), though it wasn’t bad enough that I think it was a huge factor in Michigan’s losing the game, unlike the contest against Iowa.

The Wolverines are good, but they just aren’t good enough to win a game like this… yet. However, they are good enough to win a game on the road against Minnesota, and they’ll need to do just that on Saturday in order to keep the dreams of returning to the tournament alive.

Posted under Basketball

Reminder: Tim will appear on The Big Show with John U. Bacon on 1050 WTKA at 3:30 this afternoon.

This week saw a stark change on the mound for Michigan. The beautiful pitching performances of last week were replaced with some rough and tumble innings for nearly the entire pitching staff. On offense, things started to pick up in the power department, and things looked pretty solid. Still, we managed to go 2-2 in the weekend tournament, bringing forward some serious questions about making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee Recap

Michigan 11, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 19
Box Score
W – Lucas Annen (1-0) L – Travis Smith (0-1)

Ryan LaMarre, Image from mgoblue

Wisconsin-Milwaukee came into this fresh off a horrible series in Arizona State where the top 10 Sun Devils destroyed the Panthers in nearly every aspect of the game. UW-M was hungry for a win, and fueled by some apparent bulletin board material, the Panthers came out swinging.

Michigan started in the bottom of the 1st with a 3 run frame that would set the high scoring pace for the rest of the game. After Cislo single and Toth walk, Ryan LaMarre hit a 3 run blast in the inning, the first of his two home runs. All was well so far.

Travis Smith ran into trouble in the third. Up 4-2, Mike Dufek started the inning with a fielding error. A few plays later, Toth let a ball get away from him for the second error of the inning. By the end of the inning, we would see Smith pulled after giving up 6 runs. One of the runs was scored while relief pitcher DeCarlo had entered the game, but was charged to Smith as it was his baserunner. DeCarlo was pretty horrid in that 1/3 inning of work in which he hit two batters, gave up the RBI single, and threw a wild pitch.

Well that hurt. Now down 8-4, Michigan began to chip away, eventually coming within a 9-7 margin from a pair of RBI singles by Toth and LaMarre and a McLouth solo home run.

Then came the dagger from the Panthers. After a fairly successful 5th inning by reliever Losorelli (his first career appearance), the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Losorelli gave up 4 straight singles to open the inning and threw a wild pitch (which actually lead to an out at the plate). At this point, Miller came in to the game to stop continue the bleeding. After immediately throwing a wild pitch to give up a run, he induced a ground ball, gave up two walks in a row to force in a run, then back to back base clearing doubles. Seven runs scored that inning and Michigan was down 16-7.

Michigan tried to answer in the bottom half of the inning when after a pair of walks to Cislo and Toth, Ryan LaMarre knocked his second 3 run homer, giving him 7 RBIs on the day. Michigan wouldn’t get any more runs in the 6th, and would only plate one more in the 8th. UW-M would answer that run with three more of their own in the top of the 9th, making the final score UM-W 19, Michigan 11.

Bummer.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 4/5 7 RBI, 2 R, 2 HR
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB
• Kevin Cislo – 1/3 3 R, 2 BB, 2B

Notable Goats

• Toth and Dufek’s error in the 2nd giving up 4 unearned runs, putting us behind big early
• Cislo’s error giving up an unearned run.
• Every pitcher except Vangheluwe hit a batter – DeCarlo hit three, Smith/Miller/Losorelli each had one, four of those runners scored
• Wild pitches – each reliever had one
• The pitching staff gave up 15 earned runs.

A lot of this loss falls on the shoulders of the pitching staff. The two errors in the 2nd though really killed momentum. I give credit to the Panthers, they came out swinging and never let up. This game was an absolute waste of Ryan LaMarre’s talent. To get 7 RBIs and still come up short of the win is horrible.

Jacksonville Game 1 Recap
Michigan 21, Jacksonville 3
Box Score
W – Chris Fetter (1-0) L –

Chris Fetter, Image from mgoblue

So obviously this game went quite a bit better from both the pitching and hitting standpoint. Chris Fetter reminded everyone that the Michigan team isn’t completely devoid of consistency on the mound by throwing 6 innings of shut out baseball while only allowing 4 hits while walking none and striking out 7. Great game by the captain.

Brandon Sinnery also had an alright performance, at least compared to his last two outings. In three innings, he gave up 3 runs, all in his first inning of work. He buckled down after a rough seventh, only allowing 2 base runners, one of which was erased by a game ending double play.

Rather than detail the 21 runs and how they were scored, I’ll let the notable stars do most of the talking for the batters as there were plenty of them. Its also worth noting that several of the backups got mop up duty during this game, including 2-3 that hadn’t seen playing time yet. Mike Kittle and Bryce Aspinwall really made the most of their opportunities, which is great for the two of them.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 2/4 4 RBI, 2 R, BB, 2 K, HR
• Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI
• Mike Dufek – 3/5 2 R, RBI, HR, 2B
• Anthony Toth – 2/7 4 RBI, 2 R, 2B
• Kevin Cislo – 2/4 2 RBI, 3 R, 2B
• Kenny Fellows – 2/5 3 RBI, 2 R, 2B
• John Lorenz – 2/3 4 R, RBI, 2 2B (his first career hits)
• Chris Fetter – 6IP, 0 R, 7 K, 4 H, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

No real goats this game as we won 21-3. Solid game by the offense and on the mound. Toth had an error, but it didn’t affect the score.

Jacksonville Game 2 Recap
Michigan 10, Jacksonville 2
Box Score
W – Carson Andrew (2-0) L -Eric Katzman (1-1)

I have to give it to the Dolphins, despite being shellacked in game one, they didn’t let it bother them going into game two. The game started as a pitchers duel between Katzman and Andrew. The only run in the first four innings came on a Berset RBI double with Fellows on first.

Ryan LaMarre, Image from mgoblue

In the fifth, the Dolphins jumped on the board as Katzman started to lose his placement on his fastball and break on his off speed pitches. Katzman walked 3 batters and gave up a single giving up a run and loading the bases. Burgoon came in to try and get a stop, but the first batter he faced knocked a single right back up the middle scoring two, both charged to Katzman.

Burgoon would give up 3 runs in the 6th. Matt Gerbe would give up 3 in the 7th and one in the 9th. Michigan meanwhile couldn’t get the offense started against either Dolphin pitcher. Andrew and Loosen combined to go the full 9 only giving up 7 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs while striking out 13. The second run came from a lead off home run in the 9th inning by Jake McLouth.

So maybe we should have saved some of the offense in game 1 for game 2?

Notable Stars

• Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI, HR
• Chris Berset – 1/3 RBI, 2B
• Eric Katzman’s first four innings – 0 R, 3 K, 2 H, 1 GDP, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

• Eric Katzman’s fourth inning – 3 R, 3 BBs, 1 H, 2 outs
• Mike Dufek – 0/4 2 left on base, 3 Ks (hat trick)
• Kenny Fellows – 0/3 2 left on base

The offense just sounded lethargic. We couldn’t get anything going and the two pitchers for Jacksonville looked like the best pitchers we’ll face all year. This loss really hurts (being the second of the weekend and following such a large route). With two losses to these types of teams (outside the top 100), Michigan is going to need to be impressive down the stretch of the OOC schedule, or immensely impressive in the Big10 season to make sure we at least secure an at large bid to the tournament. I’m not saying I expect us to lose in the Big10 Tourney just yet, but there will be much more competition this season.

Akron Recap
Michigan10, Akron 7
Box Score
W – Mike Dufek (1-0) L – Alex Loftin (0-1)

Kevin Cislo, Image from Churl flickr

Again with the comebacks. This time it happened in the 8th inning, the last inning that was played. Michigan’s travel plans cut the game short, which occasionally happens in college.

Michigan started the game by taking a 1-0 lead on a Jake McLouth RBI ground out to the firstbase side of the pitcher. The lead wouldn’t last long, however, because starter Kolby Wood was giving up runs early and often. Wood gave up at least one run in each of his 5 innings of work, allowing Akron to jump out to a lead of 7-2. In his defense (or by lack of defense), 2 runs given up in the third were both unearned as Toth booted a potential inning ending ground ball.

In the top of the 6th, Michigan started chipping away at the Zips’ lead. Urban began the inning by being hit by the pitch. He would have to leave the game to have the left wrist looked at. I’ve yet to hear the extent of the injury, and imagine he should be back by next weekend. When they take players out it is generally just precautionary to check for broken bones. Hopefully that’s not the case.

Timmy Kalcyznski homered to follow the hit by pitch. To close out the scoring, Ryan LaMarre had an infield single on the hit-and-run to knock in Cislo. Michigan was then down 7-5.

Bats for both teams quieted down until the final inning. Toth started the rally by being hit by a pitch, followed by a Cislo walk. Fellows followed with an RBI double, and Ryan LaMarre cleared the bases with a 2 RBI single through the left side. After walking Dufek, the pitcher Loftin threw away a pick off throw to first, allowing Dufek to second and LaMarre to score. Aspinwall would knock in Dufek with a single, but would ultimately be caught stealing. Michigan lead 10-7, and Dufek would close out the bottom of the 8th for the win.

Lineup Changes

During the second Jacksonville game, I got to thinking about how long it would take for McLouth to be bumped into the cleanup spot and Dufek drop to the 5-hole. Dufek’s batting average has been hovering around the .210 line while McLouth, while not drawing many walks, has been batting well over .400 for the season. It made sense to me for these two to switch, offering Ryan LaMarre more protection, and getting Dufek more strikes to look at as McLouth will be on base, and the opposing teams can’t afford to pitch around him with runners on.

After some second guessing on my part, Coach Maloney did indeed make the switch in the Akron game. The move didn’t make any noticeable changes in the output of the game, but its a pretty small sample size. I’m interested to see if the switch stays permanent when we play Siena on Saturday.

The other switch included swapping Toth and Fellows in the 2 and 9 holes. I really liked this move too. Toth also has been struggling with the average, but is getting on base just as well as anyone else. By moving him into the 9-hole, he can get away with the low batting average as he won’t need to knock in runs, but his walks will allow him to act as a lead off man when the lineup rolls back over, allowing him to still score many runs.

This move worked excellently in the 8th inning, allowing Toth to work the walk and Fellows to collect the RBI double. On the other side of the swap, Fellows was able to move Cislo around on a hit while Toth struggled at the plate today. Really great move by Maloney.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 3/4 4 RBI, R, BB, K
• Kenny Fellows – 2/4 2 R, RBI
• Bryce Aspinwall – 1/2 R, RBI
• Timmy Kalczynski – 1/2 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (1st career)
• Kevin Cislo – 2/3 3 R
• Mike Dufek (pitching) – 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K
• Coach Maloney – his 500th career win (244th at Michigan)

Notable Goats

• Toth’s 2 run error
• Wood’s 5 earned runs in 5 innings

We’re not going to continue to win games at the last minute like this. Our pitching needs to keep us in the games a bit better, and we’ve got to stop giving up so many unearned runs. We gave up 7 of them in to two games on Friday and Sunday. While our infield is young and inexperienced (at least on the left side), we must play better on defense.

I’ll have the stat watch out later in the week this time as we don’t have a midweek game. Next game is Friday at 1pm vs. Siena. We’ll be playing in Port St. Lucie, the home of the Mets spring training. We also have our rematch scheduled with the Mets on Sunday.

For those of you who don’t me, I passionately hate the Mets.  The first game I ever went to was when I was 9 months old.  It was the Mets at Astros in the 1986 NLCS.  It was the decisive game 6 that went 16 innings.  I didn’t make it all the way through the game, but it was the first and only major league game I have ever cried at.   The Mets went on to win that game and beat the Red Sox on the Bill Buckner play. I’ve hated them ever since.  May we beat them by 30.

Posted under Baseball

Just a note here on cross-platform Varsity Blue appreances: I’ll be appearing on John U. Bacon‘s Big Show on WTKA today at 3:30 (assuming it doesn’t get bumped for the third time in four weeks, of course). We’ll be talking football, recruiting, basketball, and maybe even a bit about blogging itself. If you aren’t in the Ann Arbor area, you can tune in on WTKA.com by using the “Listen Live Now!” link in the upper-left corner, or by simply clicking here.

So, be sure to tune in to 1050AM in the Ann Arbor area or WTKA.com outside of it around 3:30 today.

Posted under Blog News

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at 2PM today (Eastern time, 1PM local). The game can be seen live from the Kohl Center on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Wisconsin: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Wisconsin	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Wisconsin eFG% D	153	153	–
Mich eFG% D v. Wisconsin eFG%	169	111	W
Mich TO% v. Wisconsin Def TO%	18	255	MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Wisconsin TO%	157	5	WW
Mich OReb% v. Wiconsin DReb%	265	8	WWW
Mich DReb% v. Wisconsin OReb%	164	203	M
Mich FTR v. Wisconsin Opp FTR	318	64	WW
Mich Opp FTR v. Wisconsin FTR	27	224	MM
Mich AdjO v. Wisconsin AdjD	57	54	–
Mich AdjD v. Wisconsin AdjO	77	21	W

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The slide began. The Wolverines dropped a 12-point game on their home floor, in which Zack Novak was easily the team’s MVP. Michigan was down the entire game, and by double digits through most of the second half. The game was at least as much of a blowout as the final score indicated.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines’ once-sure tourney bid has declined into a bubble that has moved inches closer to bursting ever since the demoralizing Badger loss. The team has struggled on offense since losing to Wisconsin, and instead has recently re-invented itself as something of a defensive unit (maybe not a stellar one, but good enough to win some games). Good wins like Illinois and Purdue have been interspersed with losses like Iowa and near-losses like Indiana. A 10-2 start has turned into an 8-9 slide ever since.

Wisconsin started out the season very strongly, but has also gone on something of a slide lately. They seem to have turned it around as a 6-game losing streak flipped over to a 5-game winning streak before succumbing to the Spartans a week ago in their last outing.

And…?

Both teams need this win to enhance their tournament resumes. If Michigan can come away with a big road win, they might be just one win in the Big Ten Tournament away from clinching their first ticket to the Big Dance since 1998. The Badgers are in similar situation, and have the home-court advantage in this one, a big advantage. Wisconsin is now solidly in the tournament, but a losing streak to end the season could be devastating.

KenPom predicts a 66-58 Wisconsin win in a 58-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 20% chance of emerging with the win in the Kohl Center.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Image from baseball-almanac.com

Akron
10:30am – March 1, 2009

John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats and Live Audio
Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: Kolby Wood (0-0) vs Andrew Brown (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0
Last Series/Game: This is the first

Overview

The Akron Zips of the MAC Eastern division have been a young team the last two years who are finally getting experienced veterans at the starting positions. Last year marked the first year since 1997 that Akron finished above .500 (25-24), with a final RPI of 148. This year they look to improve on that record with strong senior leadership and experience on the mound.

Akron was chosen to finish 5th in the Eastern Division this year, well behind nationally ranked Kent State. So far this season they have gone 0-6, facing a variety of competition. They have lost two close games in this tournament already, including a 9-7 loss to UW-M and a 6-4 loss to Jacksonville.

Offense

I’m going to shorten this section for teams we only face once. I don’t think you need to know much about the batters that don’t appear to be a huge threat, even if they may have an explosive game against us. So if I skip a player and he for some reason goes 6-6 with a cycle and 3 home runs and 14 RBIs, the guy just didn’t catch my eye based on his long term stats.

The Zips are lead by senior shortstop Kevin Haas. Haas lead the team with a .347 batting average, scoring 52 runs and hitting in 30 RBIs. Haas had a mix of average and power, shown in his 11 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. Haas is currently batting .346 with 4 runs and an RBI.

John Turk will start behind the plate for Akron, who a year ago hit .313 with 30 runs scored and 28 RBIs. He was able to catch 11 of 34 stolen base attempts against him, which isn’t that great. This year Turk is currently batting .350, with 3 runs and 4 RBIs.

The most improved fielder so far this year is Phil Bednar at second base. Last year, Bednar hit only .252 with 21 runs and 39 RBIs. This year, Bednar is leading the team with .474 average (9/19) and three doubles.

In the outfield, Brandon White has taken over starting duties after getting spot starts last season. This year has seen him hit .429 with a team leading 7 RBIs. He and first basemen Kyle Hallett (.412) have been hitting very well behind Bednar, offering him great protection.

Pitchers

Andrew Brown is the probable starter for this game. He is a right handed freshman checking in at 6’2″. This will be his second appearance of the season. The first came in relief against Wake Forest, going 2.1 innings and giving up 6 hits, 5 runs (3 earned), on 2 walks, a hit-by-pitch, and a strikeout. There isn’t much we know about him yet, so this will be a learning experience for everybody.

The relievers haven’t really done that poor of a job this year for the Zips. Three relievers ( Bassitt, Fawcett, Fleming) still hold a 0.00 ERA over a combined 6 2/3 innings pitched. Danzinger has 8 innings with 8Ks with 4 runs given up. After that we start stretching to guys who had one bad inning.

Outlook

I’m not really certain about this one. Akron has been hit or miss (quite literally), but still can’t managed to pull out a W. Either way we need to salvage a victory just to keep face with some of the pollsters. We hopefully prove a little something to Coach Alexander of Jacksonville (one of the members of the coaches poll). I’m just not overly optimistic about it for some reason. Perhaps its the loss from Friday lingering? I don’t know.

Semi-Relevant Reading

I got nothin’

Posted under Baseball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup	Time	Score	Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	6:52	10-10	0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson	1:15	2-2	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson	1:12	0-2	-2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson	2:14	8-2	+6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:46	2-0	+2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:26	5-0	+5
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	5:06	13-9	+4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	:03	0-0	0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	:06	0-0	0
Totals	20:00	40-25	+15

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup	Time	Score	Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:18	8-8	0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:32	3-3	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	:56	3-0	+3
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:49	4-0	+4
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:33	2-3	-1
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:27	0-0	0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:49	0-3	-3
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	:56	2-5	-3
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	3:36	6-4	+2
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	1:16	0-0	0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	2:50	5-5	0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:21	1-4	-3
Merritt, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims	:37	0-2	-2
Totals	20:00	34-37	-3

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 32min +17
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/2	1/2
Midrange			1/1
3-pt		0/1	1/3	1/2

A pretty active day on offense. Did a lot of work on the fast break, as well.

Zack Gibson 8min +9
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange				1/1
3-pt				2/2

Didn’t play too much, but made the most of his offensive opportunities.

Manny Harris 22min -6
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	2	0/1	0/1	2/2	0/2
Midrange	1
3-pt			1/1	1/1

Not a great day, but had his moments.

CJ Lee 37min +14
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1
Midrange					0/1
3-pt			0/1	0/1

Had a few turnovers late in the game, and didn’t shoot particularly well.

Laval Lucas-Perry 6min 0
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1			0/1
Midrange
3-pt

Hardly played at all.

Zack Novak 36min +10
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt		1/2	2/3	3/4

On fire all day.

Jevohn Shepherd 4min -2
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1	0
Midrange		0/1
3-pt

Didn’t play much, and was pretty much the only guy in negative differential.

DeShawn Sims 32min +3
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1	0/1
Midrange		0/2	2/5	0/1
3-pt			1/4	1/2

DeShawn wasn’t really the featured player on this day. He shot a bunch from midrange, but didn’t make as many of them as he usually would.

David Merritt 9min +10
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Kelvin Grady 14min +3
Quality	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1		1/1
Midrange
3-pt			2/2	1/1

Stepped up and got some significant playing time for the first time in a while.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Three Four things before I start the preview:

1. I’ve got way too much work this week, cutting into my preview time for the weekend.
2. Jacksonville’s website wasn’t very conducive for digging up information. So some areas are kind of light.
3. As mentioned in a comment, it’s the Minute Maid College Classic in Houston this weekend, so I’m going to be at Minute Maid Park watching 5 top 10 teams (and UHouston) face off in the tournament of DEATH! Blood sport style. Posting will be light and I may or may not get the Akron Preview done.
4. ARGH! Play better! [updated 10am]

Enjoy the weekend.

Image from jacksonvilledolphinsfans

@Jacksonville, Doubleheader
3:30 & 6 pm – February 28, 2009

John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats, Live Audio, and Live Video ($)
Media (Game 2): Live Stats, Live Audio, & Live Video ($)
Home Team: I believe Jacksonville will be home both games
Probable Pitchers (Game 1): Chris Fetter (0-0) vs Billy Schlee (RHP, 0-1)
Probable Pitchers (Game 2): Eric Katzman (0-0) vs Carson Andrew ( , 1-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-1
Last Series/Game: 9-2 L @ Jacksonville on 2/29/2000

Overview

Jacksonville is another middle of the road Atlantic Sun (woo they have pay per view for baseball!) team much like UNF during the midweek game. Jacksonville was picked to finish 5th in conference by the preseason coaches’ poll. They were 27-29 last year finishing with an RPI of 134. In conference, the Dolphins were 13-20, good for 10th of 11.

This year Jacksonville started the season with a three game series at Florida International. The Dolphins emerged 1-2 after the series, losing the opening two games by scores of 4-3 and 20-1. They did managed to pull out the last game however, by a score of 9-3. Florida International isn’t that good of a team for those wondering (finished 158 last year).

Offensive Stars

The leader of the Dolphins is catcher Jeremy Gillian. Gillian is all preseason Atlantic Sun for his efforts last year, hitting .377 with 60 RBIs including 9 homeruns and 10 doubles. He also is a force behind the plate, throwing out 17 runners last year.

The second leading hitter for Jacksonville last year was second baseman Chuck Opachich. Opachich hit .323 last year, only scoring 28 runs and 18 RBIs. That seems pretty low for that batting average. This year he is the lead off man, and he’s done alright in limited playing time. He’s 2/7 with a K in 2 games, only one a start.

Hitting in the two hole will be returning left fielder Kyle Fleming who is 2/7 with a run and RBI, and 2BBs this season. Last season he hit .313 with 40 runs scored. He’s the one setting up Gillian with RBIs.

Pitching

Billy Schlee is a closer converted to starter for the Dolphins. Last season he was 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA with 6 savees. He only had 12 appearances for 14.1 innings where he gave up 17 hits and 11 runs, while striking out 11. In one relief appearance this season he went 3.2 innings, he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and striking out 5.

Carson Andrew was the second starter for the Dolphins a year ago, going 5-3 with a 4.61 ERA (2nd on team). In 18 appearances (11 starts) he logged 70.1 innings while giving up 53 runs (36 earned, which tells you about their fielding last year). Andrew did collect 7.67 K’s-per-9-innings which is respectable, and only walked 26. That’s pretty solid for college starters.

This year Andrew had the start in the team’s only win. He lasted 4 innings giving up 4 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2 and struck out 3 in the win. His statistics appear to point to him not lasting long into games (only about 5 innings per start).

There isn’t enough information about the relievers, and the 20-1 loss last week has all their numbers looking pretty poorly.

Semi-Relavant Reading

Got nothin’.

Posted under Baseball

Michigan 87, Purdue 78. And it wasn’t even that close.

The TV where I watched the game tonight had a terrible picture. The score was virtually incomprehensible all game, I couldn’t tell whether it was Laval Lucas-Perry or DeShawn Sims playing defense, and I undoubtedly missed several interpretive dances from Ed Hightower.

Somehow, that made it make more sense.

The Michigan Wolverines, losers in an embarrassing game at Iowa, in which (in my admittedly biased opinion, of course) the referees essentially decided the game with inconsistent officiating in the last minute of regulation, beat a top 25 team yet again. The Purdue Boilermakers, who escaped with a win against Michigan in their home arena thanks in part to an egregiously bad call against Manny Harris, fell to the Wolverines by a margin of 9 points, and the margin really felt much further apart. I don’t mean to make this post entirely about officiating in other games, because the Wolverines’ performance shouldn’t be diminished by focusing on things outside their control, much less those that happened days or even weeks ago.

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris were the players we all know they can be tonight, and though Manny still wasn’t getting the calls that Michigan fans think he should be getting, the team leaders, both from Detroit (where John Beilein clearly will never be able to recruit), were able to put up big numbers against the Boilermakers and lead their team to victory. The role players, who until now have been taking turns with huge games, were able to each step up enough without any one player going ballistic from long range.

Michigan is back on the bubble, and Purdue’s chances of winning the Big Ten are reduced to basically zero. These stakes were set before the game, and Michigan was able to use the motivation to come away with a huge road win against a top-25 team, and Purdue was sent home knowing they heavily rely on Michigan State to choke in order to even have a chance to take the regular-season crown.

Posted under Basketball

Image from UWM.edu

Wisconsin-Milwaukee
1 pm – February 27, 2009
John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats and Audio
Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: Travis Smith (0-0) vs Andy Hetebrueg (RHP, 0-1)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0
Last Series/Game: Never has happened (unlike UNF, I know this is true)

Overview

Friday Michigan will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers, the only D1 baseball school in the state of Wisconsin as the Badgers in Madison cut the baseball team due to huge athletic deficits in the early 90s. The Panthers were a bad team last year, finishing 25-36 overall, 11-15 in the Horizon League conference, good for #258 in RPI. They did manage to make it to the championship of their conference tournament, but they ultimately would lose to Illinois-Chicago.

This year the UWM started off a series with #6 Arizona State. It didn’t start or finish well for the Panthers as Arizona State swept the 4 games by a combined score of 53-9. Obviously the numbers are going to be a bit skewed from facing such an opponent. The team is batting .128 and their ERA is 14.06. Tough start for the team picked to finish third in the Horizon League.

Offensive Players

The lineup for the Panthers has been shuffled quite a bit this year. No one has started in the 5/6/7/9 holes of the batting order more than once. Only the 1/2/3 batters have started in every game, and only lead off hitter and second basemen Andy Gerhartz has started each game in the same place in the order.

Gerhartz batted .288 last season while scoring 43 runs and collecting 13 RBIs. Gerhartz is a threat on the bases, stealing 15/18 last season. He’s started slow this year, at a nice .071 pace with 6 Ks. I guess I can’t make that much fun as our lead off hitter is batting .077 as I type this (pre-UNF game). Its also worth noting that Gerhartz is one of those ball magnets. He was hit 8th most in the NCAA last year (23 HBPs) and is on a solid pace this year with 3 in 4 games.

Image from UWMPanthers.com

Cole Kraft will likely bat second in the order and play shortstop. He hit .295 last year making spot starts at second base. This year he has been less impressive (as the theme continues), batting just .167.

Behind Kraft will most likely be All Horizon League first basemen Shawn Wozniak. Wozniak had a break out season last year hitting .364 with 6 home runs and 26 doubles. He’s a third year starter and is the team “star.” Continuing the unimpressive theme, this year he’s started at .182 with 2 singles.

After that, you have a crap shoot on the order. My guess is Ben Long, the utility player, bats cleanup. Long has made a start at catcher, first base, and designated hitter this season already. He was the Second Team All Horizon League last year as a freshman DH. He hit .292 with 6 homeruns and 11 doubles on the year. Long is the only Panther batter currently hitting over .300 (3/9). He also is tied for the team lead in hits.

He’s tied with left fielder Tim Patzman (the only other batter batting above .200), who is also the thunder in the lineup so far this year. Patzman already has 3 runs and 2 RBIs thanks to his homerun and two doubles. He is a first year starter as a junior and may get bumped up a spot in the order to get more pop earlier.

Rounding out the outfield are center fielder Doug Dekoning and right fielder Johann Andes. Dekoning hit .305 last year (his freshman season) with 9 steals, earning him a spot on the “Newcomer Team” in the Horizon League. Andes may not actually start this weekend. He is a junior college transfer with only this year left in eligibility. So far on the season, he is 0/9 with a hit by pitch and sacrifice fly. Exepct both of these players, or their replacements toward the bottom of the order.

Shaun Wegner will probably do the catching for this game. The returning starter (Second Team All Horizon League) hit .329 last year with 35 runs and 23 RBI. He is more the offensive type catcher than defense. He had 22 pass balls in 50 games (43 starts) last year, and only threw out 30% of stolen base attempts. Hopefully this leads to some success on the basepaths that we could definitely use.

The last starter will most likely be Paul Hoenecke at third. Hoenecke is a true freshman who was one of the best prospects in the state of Wisconsin last year. So far this season, he’s hitting .091 with a double and RBI.

Pitchers

Image from HorizonLeague.com

Starting in this game will be Andy Hetebrueg, a right hander who has had meh success in his career. Hetebrueg was 6-7 last year in 17 appearances (15 starts). His ERA last year was 6.57 in 86 1/3 innings of work, recording 50 Ks and only 34 BBs.

This gets encouraging from a Michigan standpoint. In his first start this year, Hetebrueg lasted 4 innings. In those four innings, he gave up 8 hits, 5 of which were home runs. Yes, you read that right. He gave up 5 homeruns(!) in 4 innings, with an opponent batting average of .421(!). On top of that, he also gave up 8 runs (all earned) and walking 3 and hitting a batter. Arizona State lit him up at the plate and took advantage on the mound, stealing 3 bases on 3 attempts. Lets see, something good about him this year… he struck out one batter? All that said, you have to imagine he’ll be looking to get back on the right side of things against Michigan.

The relief corp behind Hetebrueg has obviously gotten some experience already this season. It’s been about as ugly as Hetebrueg’s start. Ten different pitchers got work last week, only two of which didn’t give up a run. The ERA of the non-starters is currently 33.78. This is somewhat inflated due to a long relief appearance in game 2 vs ASU as Cuyler Franzke was forced into the game in the first inning due to an fast exit by starter Jeff Gordon. Franzke gave up 8 runs in the “non-start,” which is half the runs given up by the bullpen. If you exclude Franzke, the bullpen ERA is …only… 13.93. Having looked through their stats the last few seasons, I can’t even find anyone to even single out to tell you keep an eye on them.

Unless one of their pitchers has a career day or is just plain on, the top of the Michigan lineup should tear this pitching staff apart.

Semi-Relevant Reading

• One of the assistants is keeping a journal for The College Baseball Blog. The most recent post was “wow, last weekend went poorly.” The post before has an interesting look on how smaller northern schools spend spring practice. Nothing enlightening, but interesting nonetheless.
• The CBB also has their full preseason preview of UWM. It’s more in depth than I cared to go, detailing all of the position battles and mentioning some of the starters. It reaffirms the “bullpen-by-committee” as mentioned earlier, not just closer.

*Based from starting rotation last week. UWM’s site hasn’t prefaced the game as of yet.

Posted under Baseball