Normally these will be a bit shorter as I won’t have to go through as many different teams in a weekend and we will also only have 3 games instead of four.

I wanted to start with a little complaint about Friday’s multimedia. I had quite a bit of fun just trying to see anything about the game yesterday. I loaded up the CSTV Gametracker (stats) well before the game started. I renewed my long running battle with MGoBlue’s multimedia player well before game time to ensure it would be working. The media player doesn’t work with firefox (huge downer), and I am generally only 50-50 to get it working in IE. I even checked out WBCN’s sport stream to make sure I had every avenue covered.

One o’clock passed with no luck. The media player’s got nothing for the baseball game, just loads then stops. Gametracker is stuck in pregame. I go to try to refresh it by opening the link from MGoBlue, and they replaced the link by directing me to an old stat tracker (a USF vs Notre Dame game last season) at the USF site. The sports stream even let me down as they were playing the Duke vs UM basketball game in syndication. Well this is a huge suckfest.

So 38 minutes after the first pitch, MGoBlue finally gets a hold of the radio feed. It’s in the 2nd inning. I go and check the stat link at MGoBlue, its still not CSTV, but they did link to a CiL live blog on USF’s website. It started out fairly quiet, but about an hour into the game, a large contingent of Wolverine fans took over the board. It was good to see the fan showing on another site. The moderators from USF were pretty good about letting Michigan fans say their piece, but there were some posts not approved from myself that probably could/should have been. That happens in the CiL’s though.

So while the technology wasn’t all it could be, things ended out alright. We had only missed a one run USF first, and Michigan going down silently in the first two.

Notes from the Challenge

Over 50 scouts in the north and midwest regions were in attendance this weekend, as this offered them a great chance to check out prospects with limited travel.

Saturday saw what is thought to be the first game ever to be umpired by a woman in D1 baseball, much less two women at the same time (yes, I specifically linked those words as a single phrase).  As an umpire myself, those lady’s got some balls to go out their on the field with men.

The Big10 went 5-3 on Friday, on 4-4 Saturday, and 6-2 on Sunday to take the Challenge by a total margin of 15-9.  Great showing by the Big10 as a whole.  The first two days of the Challenge, most Big10 teams either just squeaked out a victory or were totally blasted out of the ball park.  Sunday wasn’t quite as close on the victories, but there were some pretty bad losses still.  Michigan came out the best looking.  Ohio State was the only other Big10 team to emerge undefeated.  Indiana went 2-1, losing only (read: badly) to St. John’s.  Purdue went 1-2 losing to both USF and Notre Dame.  Those aren’t bad losses for the Boilermakers.  Notre Dame was another extra inning game for them, their second in as many days.

USF Recap

Michigan 6, USF 5
Box Score
Win – Burgoon (1-0) Loss – Salgueiro (0-1)

Images from mgoblue.com

This game started out rough for Fetter and the Wolverines. USF jumped out to a quick lead with 1 run in the first inning from 3 singles. Fetter managed to get out of the inning by inducing a ground out and then striking out a batter, his first of 6 Ks.

The second inning also hosted a pair of USF singles, but the problems began with an error by third basemen John Lorenz. Lorenz threw wide of the bag allowing the runners an extra base. A run scored on that play, and the following single. Fetter locked down after this inning, allowing only one hit in the next 3 frames.

Michigan was fairly quiet on offense as well. McLouth did knock his first homer of the year in his first career at bat in the second inning. In the fourth, Toth walked, advanced to third on a LaMarre single, then scored on a Dufek ground out. Fontanez really had our number at the plate. He was economical with his pitch count and managed to pick off two of our runners.

Matt Gerbe relieved Fetter in the 6th, pitching 2 good innings, and being beaten up in his third inning of work. He ended up giving up 2 runs on 2 singles, a double, a walk and a hit-by-pitch. This inning looked to put the nail in the coffin for Michigan; on the CiL, I figured Coach Prado would bring in Salguiero and close out the game. At the time, I thought we were done.

Then Coach Prado made the decision to bring in his middle reliever Teddy Kaufman. Kaufman immediately loaded the bases when Crank crank’d (I’ve been waiting all off season to use that) a double, Fellows walked, and Cislo was hit by the pitch. Salguiero entered the game here.

I liked our odds with LaMarre at the plate. He is a good singles hitter and doesn’t strike out much. He didn’t disappoint, looping a single into right field plating 2 runs. We got lucky to tie the game as LaMarre should have been picked off in a first and third situation, but on a throw went wild allowing Cislo to score the tying run.

Burgoon came in for his first pressure situation of the season, tied in the 9th. He responded with a quick 1-2-3 inning right through the heart of the order. The bottom of the ninth started nicely with a Nick Urban double off the left center wall. Instead of bunting the runner to third, Maloney gambled on Chris Berset and Tim Kalczynski. Neither could move the runner over, leaving the inning in the hands of Kenny Fellows. Fellows hit a quick ground ball back up the middle, but Sam Mende, the USF shortstop could only knock it down as the speedy Urban came around to score. Victory. As I said in the preview, Salguiero can be high risk-high reward, we caught him on the high-risk appearance.

Timely hitting was the key here. USF out-hit us 11-10, but they stranded an extra 4 men on base.

Notable Stats

• Nick Urban – 3/4 2 2b, R
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/4 2 RBI, SB
• Kenny Fellows – 3/3 R, RBI, BB, 1 CS
• Jason McLouth – 1/4 Solo HR
• Tyler Burgoon – 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, W

Purdue Recap

Michigan 4, Purdue 3 (10 innings)
Box Score
Win – Burgoon (2-0) Loss – Wurdack (0-1)

To start day two of the season, Michigan came out looking a little sluggish early. The Wolverines registered a hit in each of the first 5 innings, but they just couldn’t get any runs on the board.

Purdue on the other hand go on the board in the second inning in the midst of a four hit inning. Backup catcher Coley Crank also had an error in the inning while attempting to pick off a runner at first base, leading to one unearned run. Purdue would score again in the top of the 6th when Purdue outfielder Jon Moore reached on a Tim Kalczynski error at third base. Moore eventually would score after a pair of Purdue hits.

Post Game Celebrating, Image from mgoblue.com

Michigan responded in the bottom half of the 6th managed 4 hits in the inning to tie the game at 3-3. The next few innings went by quickly. Purdue started to form a rally in the 7th, but Tyler Burgoon entered the game with 2 runners on and no outs. He induced a pop out to himself on an attempted bunt, struck out a batter, and Chris Berset threw out Purdue DH Jonathan Lilly attempting to steal third.

Burgoon gave up a hit in the 9th and two in the 10th, all singles, but the Boilermakers couldn’t muster up any runs out of it. In the bottom of the 10th, Michigan got started with a Toth walk. Toth stole second on strike three of the LaMarre at-bat, forcing Purdue to face Dufek with a runner on second. Purdue elected to intentionally walk Dufek and set up a potential inning ending double play. Urban then flew out to shallow right field, Toth tagged up and just made it into third base before the ball reached the base. McLouth finished the game with a single up the middle, scoring Toth. Victory.

This victory is extremely encouraging as Purdue is the team picked as the team capable of usurping Michigan in the Big10 this year. And while we don’t play them in the season, this game will go a long way to give our guys confidence come tournament time.

Not enough praise can be directed to our pitching staff after this game. They only gave up one earned run early in the game. Kolby Wood gave us a good start, he just wasn’t helped out by the defense. Sinnery got us out of trouble when we needed him and Tyler Burgoon is on fire right now. Tyler was by and large the player of the game. I have to imagine he’s done for the weekend, and probably at least until the Wisconsin-Milwaukee game next Friday. He’s already pitched 5 innings this weekend. That’s a lot to start the season.

Notable Stats

• Tyler Burgoon – 4 IP, 3 H, 0Rs, 4Ks, W
• Mike Dufek – 2/3 RBI, R, 2 BBs
• Jason McLouth – 3/5 2 RBIs
• Anthony Toth – 0/2 3BBs, 2 Rs, 1 SBs, 1 CS
• Nick Urban – 2/5

Cincinnati Recap

Michigan 6, Cincinnati 1
Box Score
W – Travis Smith (1-0) L – Tyler Smith (0-1)

Mike Dufek’s Homerun, Image from mgoblue.com

This game Michigan came out swinging it hot. The Wolverines plated 3 in the 1st inning with a pair of walks sandwiching a single, followed by a RBI sacrifice fly by Jason McLouth and a 2 RBI single by Nick Urban. The three lead was all the M pitching staff would need to finish off the BearCats. Travis Smith gave up 7 hits and one run in 5 innings of work while reliever Matt Miller shut down the Cincinnati offense over the last 4 innings. Smith ended the night striking out 9 batters, being named Aaron Fitt’s Best Escape Artist. Not to be outdone, Miller struck out 7 while walking none and giving up 2 hits. That is outstanding.

The next few innings passed without much. The BearCats had at least one hit in each of the first four innings, but like Michigan against Purdue, they just weren’t getting runners across the plate. In the 5th, they managed to get on the board when Travis Smith began to lose his touch. After giving up a lead off double and the runner advancing to third on a fly out, Smith walked a batter and hit the next two, forcing in a run. Smith managed to get a ground ball on the following batter, ending the inning with a 4-6-3 double play. Cincinnati would never threaten to score again.

Michigan scored again in the 7th. Anthony Toth singled and Ryan LaMarre was hit by a pitch, setting up this:

This missile cleared the berm behind the right-field fence and bounced halfway up the chain-link fence that shields U.S. 19. And it got there in a hurry. I haven’t seen a ball hit that hard since Dominguez hit two massive homers for Louisville in the 2007 College World Series.

As we used to say in high school, he hit that one to the sequoias. And while Aaron Fitt might have screwed up the name on that description (he incorrectly attributes the home run to Cincinnati’s Mike Spina), I’m sure Mike Dufek appreciates the compliment. In the end, mark it down another victory for Michigan, putting them at 3-0 to start the season.

Notable Stats

• Mike Dufek – 1/3 3 RBIs, 2Rs, 2 BBs
• Nick Urban – 3/5 2b, 3b (that’s a HR from a cycle)
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/3 2Rs
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 R, 2BBs
• Travis Smith – 5 IP, 7 Hs, 1 R, 2 BBs, 9 Ks
• Matt Miller – 4 IP, 2 Hs, 0 Rs, 0 BBs, 7 Ks

St. John’s Recap

Michigan 4, St. John’s 2
Box Score
W – Eric Katzman (1-0)  L- Nick Luisi (0-1)

Katzman vs St. John’s, Image from mgoblue.com

Michigan jumped out with the lead in the top of the 1st inning when St. John’s starter Nick Luisi came out a little rusty.  He walked Cislo and Toth on a combined 9 pitches.  After being settled down by his pitching coach, he came back sharp to get LaMarre and Dufek, but a Jason McLouth infield single to third ruffled the starter’s feathers just enough for him to hand a fastball on the outside part of the plate to Nick Urban, who drove the pitch right back up the middle.  Cislo and Toth scored to put Michigan up 2-0.

Eric Katzman started for Michigan and was he ever on.  Eric only worked himself into trouble once in the third where he gave up a single, double, then sacrifice fly to give up a run,.  This was the best career start for Katzman, not to mention his longest at 7 innings.  He only allowed 7 hits, 1 run, and 4 walks while striking out four batters.  His breaking ball and side arm fastballs were leaving batters guessing and flailing wildly.

Michigan manufactured a run in the 6th inning. Chris Berset walked and was sacrificed over by Lorenz.  Fellows then lined a single to left, and Berset just beat the tag at the plate.

With Burgoon unavailable, Dufek came in for the 2 inning save opportunity.  In the 8th, Dufek breezed right through the line up.  Michigan came into the top of the 9th and was handed a run on a silver platter.  The St. John’s relievers Aremento and Cole walked the first four batters of the inning to give up a run.  Valcarcel came in and stopped the bleeding, but Michigan had a crucial insurance run to extend the lead to 3 runs.

Dufek came out to close the game down in the 9th, but faced some trouble.  After giving up a lead off walk, Dufek eventually gave up a double off the wall, giving up a run.  That would be the last base runner of the game though, as the next batter grounded out to end the game.  Victory.

Katzman was the hero of this game.  He held a team that had averaged 16.5 runs per game this weekend and held them to just one in 7 innings.  I’d include Mike Dufek as a “team pitching” effort, but Dufek’s offense was so bad today, he doesn’t deserve the credit on defense.  Mike managed to go 0/4 with 4 Ks.  Yes my friends, that’s a Golden Sombrero.  He narrowly avoided the Texas-5-gallon hat in the 9th.  He successfully fouled off 7 pitches in a gritty walk that brought in an RBI.  Very Eckstein-ish.

Notable Stats

• Eric Katzman – 7 IP, 7 Hs, 1 R, 4 K, 2 BBs, W
• Mike Dufek – 0/4 BB, 4 Ks (Golden Sombrero), RBI, 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 Ks
• Kevin Cislo – o/2 3 BBs, 2 Rs
• Jake McLouth – 3/4
• Nick Urban – 1/5 2 RBIs
• Chris Berset – 1/2 2 BBs, R
• Kenny Fellows – 2/4 RBI

I’ll check out the teams overall stats in my next post.  This one seemed long enough.

Posted under Baseball

Also available on MGoBlog and UMHoops. Things should get rolling shortly before the game begins.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Iowa: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Iowa	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Iowa eFG% D	153	170	M
Mich eFG% D v. Iowa eFG%	155	29	II
Mich TO% v. Iowa Def TO%	22	242	MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Iowa TO%	157	218	M
Mich OReb% v. Iowa DReb%	261	159	II
Mich DReb% v. Iowa OReb%	179	294	MM
Mich FTR v. Iowa Opp FTR	322	137	II
Mich Opp FTR v. Iowa FTR	22	197	MM
Mich AdjO v. Iowa AdjD	61	124	M
Mich AdjD v. Iowa AdjO	77	70	–

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Game 1

This season is going to give me a heart attack. Michigan wins its second in a row to open the season on a walk off single, this time in the 10th inning. Tyler Burgoon gets the win again, he’s now on pace to win 55 games this season, shattering the previous record by over 30. He pitched 4 innings of shut out relief, keeping Michigan close.  He was definitely the player of the game.  Maloney didn’t even warm anyone else up the down the stretch of the game.  That’s the kind of confidence Rich has in Tyler.

McLouth was a hero again this time with the walk off single. He went 3-5 in the game with 2 RBIs. That puts him at .444 for the season with 7 total bases.  Toth also did a great job working the count.  He earned three walks in the game, including one to set up the winning run.

The one area that looked ugly though was baserunning.  We were caught three times today.  We’re slightly more aggressive this year, but it has yet to pay off.  It’ll be interesting to see if we keep up this level of intensity on the base paths or if Maloney will change up his plan of attack.

As said previously, I’ll have the full recap up for the weekend sometime on Monday. We have a quick turn around as Michigan faces Cincinnati in about an hour and a half.

Game 2

Michigan finally decided to get ahead and stay ahead in this game.  We gave Travis Smith a 3 run lead before he even took the mound, and that was all we needed.  Smith and Matt Miller combined to give up only one run while striking out 16.  Mike Dufek added a 3 run homer, his first of the year, as insurance late, but even that wasn’t needed.

Aaron Fitt at Baseball America described the Dufek bomb thusly:

[Mike Dufek] hit a Chris Dominguez-like bomb in the top of the seventh, a three-run shot that gave the Wolverines a 6-1 lead. This missile cleared the berm behind the right-field fence and bounced halfway up the chain-link fence that shields U.S. 19. And it got there in a hurry. I haven’t seen a ball hit that hard since Dominguez hit two massive homers for Louisville in the 2007 College World Series.

Of course Aaron screwed up the name of the player, citing Mike Spina (of Cincinnati) instead, but the description of the homerun was spot on with Dufek’s blast.  In other hitting standouts, Nick Urban also had quite a day, just a home run shy of the cycle.

We’re off for the rest of the night.  Tomorrow is St. John’s, who scored 12 on Iowa in the first inning in route to a 18-3 shellacking, yikes.

Posted under Baseball

Image from Ezteams.com

St. John’s
February 22, 2009 1pm
Red McEwen Field (USF Campus)
Tampa, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: St. John’s
Probable Pitchers: Eric Katzman (LHP, 0-0) vs Nick Luis (LHP, 0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 3-3
Last Series/Game: Michigan 12 – St. John’s 17, March 2005

I want to preface this with a little something: the St. John’s Baseball page is by far the worst for information. Here I am working up a preview just weeks before the season, and the sports information department has done nothing further than updating the schedule for the teams. Up until Thursday, the site also had a Windows Media Player on auto start on every page. Was it ever annoying to have Coach Kim Barnes Arico start an interview every 20 seconds. Luckily, the Red Storm installed a new video player as of Friday… after I stopped needing their website. Along with this update, it appears they have actually put some information on the team up… the DAY BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS. This team was the BigEast Champion last year, and this is as excited as they get?

So onto baseball. St. John’s is the first of three 2008 tournament team Michigan will face in the next few weeks. St. John’s has been a beacon for northern schools lately, posting three straight 40 wins seasons (generally good enough to qualify any team for the NCAA tourney). Last year, St. John’s received the lone at-large bid given to northern mid-majors with a 41-14 record (20-7 in BigEast). They won the regular season BigEast title but slipped in the conference tournament, leading to Louisville taking the BigEast automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. This year the Red Storm are predicted to finish quite a bit lower (4th in the BigEast Coaches’ Preseason Poll), but they do return seven offensive starters, two members of the starting rotation, and a majority of their bullpen.

Stars

Carlos Del Rosario Image from RedStorm.com

St. John’s returns this year with quite the offense, returning 5 of their top 6 hitters from last season. Carlos Del Rosario will be the big bat in the middle of the lineup to keep your eye on. Last year he batted .347 with a team high .563 slugging percentage as a All Big East First Team left fielder. Del Rosario lead the team in runs scored with 38.

Del Rosario was the second highest batting average on the team, right after returning junior center fielder Brian Kemp (.360). Kemp is also a threat on the base paths. He has lead the team in steals in each of the last two seasons. Last year he had 16 steals in 21 chances. Kemp is one of those pesky batters that hardly ever strikes out and tends to get hit by pitches. He was hit 12 times last year accounting for half his total walks.

The next big returner is senior catcher Danny Benedetti, who last year batted .342 with 14 doubles. That is damn good for a catcher in any league. When behind the plate, Benedetti isn’t all that strong. Last year runners stole 19 bases and were only caught 18 times. His pass ball numbers aren’t overwhelming, 5 over the whole season. If we get on base, expect him to be tested, especially if we face a right handed pitcher (more about this later).

The Red Storm’s leading RBI producer (45 on the year) returns this season in 1B/OF Paul Karmas. As a freshman last year, he tied for the most at-bats on the team (218), lead the team in total hits (68), and doubles (17). He’s thought to be sticking to just first base this year.

Sophomore Greg Hopkins also returns to take over third base (he also spent time at first base and DH). Last year, Hopkins posted a .304 batting average with 12 doubles and 5 home runs (highest of any returning starter). I fully expect these five players to make up the first 5 batters in the lineup.

Other Position Players

Gino Matias will be the returning starter at second base. The senior is a small second basemen at a listed 5’7″, which likely means even less. Despite his limited strike zone, his walk to strike out ratio is 11:31. That’s a lot of strike outs for a little guy. His batting average was only .280 last year, but he was second on the team with 42 runs scored. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bat lead off or in the 9-hole as someone to set the table for the big bats at the top of the order. Matias does tend to try to steal more than most others on the team. Last year he was 9 for 14.

Junior Tim Morris, left handed first baseman and outfielder will be working to solidify himself in the lineup last year after being used sparingly. In 40 games, Morris made 25 starts. His .283 batting average wasn’t much to write home about, but he did have 3 home runs, 3 triples, and 6 doubles on the year. With a full season’s worth of at-bats, he could have some much more impressive numbers. What kept him out of the starting line up last year was his walks to strike out ratio, 4:35. That’s just unacceptable unless you’re Sammy Sosa.

Shortstop is a black hole currently. Junior Mike Martinez may have a shot, but there are two freshman, Matt Wessinger and Joe Pannick, who may be given a shot too. The two freshman have a size advantage on Martinez, but there isn’t much out there to indicate who will take over the position.

As for DH, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karmas or Morris take this spot opening room in the outfield for sophomore Scott Ferrara. Ferrara had limited use last year, but he does appear positioned to be a big contributor next season. The other option would be junior backup catcher Joe Witkowski. This would provide slightly more consistency between games as Benedetti will definitely DH in games he does not start.

Pitching

This will be short and sweet. The Red Storm lost all 4 of their primary starters and their closer. Woo Rebuilding Year!

Miguel Valcarcel, Image from RedStormSports.com

St. John’s does return a total of 10 starts (by 3 players) from last year, 8 of which were by Senior Jason Cole. Cole was 3-1 last year with a 4.72 ERA. He held the second highest opponent batting average on the team at .271.

The highest opponent batting average was .309, by Senior righthander Rich Armento. Armento had one start last year, but it was out of desperation due to lack of arms available. Armento had a team worst 7.66 ERA last season in just 22.1 innings pitched.

The wild card for the Red Storm is Puerto Rican pitcher Miguel Valcarcel. The righty was 0-0 over 36.1 innings last year including one start. His 3.44 ERA is tops among returners. There has been some talk of him becoming the team’s ace this year, but that has been just speculation as far as I can tell. He had started quite a bit as a freshman, 2 years ago, with some success.

Michigan will be facing  lefty Nick Luisi.  Luisi is a redshirt senior who hasn’t pitched in over a year for St. John’s due to some major surgery on his arm.  Luisi is one of the two team captains this year for the Red Storm, but we don’t really know what to expect out of him.  For his career, Luisi is 5-3 witha  3.36 ERA over 21 appearances (7 starts).  I’d try to get more information on him, but St. John’s website is horrible for information.  The last update on his player profile is 2005.

Semi-Relevant Reading:
Challenge Overview (RedStormSports.com, don’t click on the weekly release, it’s the release from last year’s NCAA regional)

Posted under Baseball

If LSU goes after Bryce Brown, might it hurt them with TX RB Lache Seastrunk? The Tigers are widely considered to be in Lache’s top 2 with Texas, and less competition might help Michigan’s chances. Also, dude can dunk. That may be a “well, duh” moment, but for somebody who’s generously listed at 5-9, that’s pretty impressive.

GA S Daunte Carr is hearing from several schools, but so far, Michigan isn’t among them. Little Brother and Notre Dame are chasing him, along with various schools across the south.

VA OL Marquis Wallace is hearing from plenty of schools, but Wet Virginia is his only official offer. Michigan is not listed among the schools giving him attention. At this time, it would appear that Clemson and WVU are his top 2.

FL WR Chris Dunkley says he’ll give more attention to the schools that were on him early. He’s also been selected to the ESPNU/UA All-Star game, and has accepted the invitation.

TX DE Reggie Wilson has a fairly interesting backstory, in that he’s from the Ivory Coast. Whichever school he ends up attending is going to have all sorts of puff pieces on SPN broadcasts of their games, a la Penn State’s Tamba Hali a few years ago. Be careful, because this article is already pretty damn puffy. He had 58 tackles, 12 for loss, and 9 sacks last year.

Josh Helmholdt speculates in the Detroit Free Press about who might be the next recruits to drop for Michigan:

Michigan could find themselves the recipient of several more commitments in the coming months. They are being listed as the favorites by several recruits across the country including Columbus (Ohio) Brookhaven defensive end Derrick Bryant, Apopka, Fla., cornerback Lo Wood and Orlando (Fla.) Dr. Phillips wide receiver Kenny Shaw.

This corresponds with the conventional wisdom, though Bryant has recently said he’s changed his mind, and will wait some time before making a decision. Among fluff on Michigan’s existing commits so far, there’s also an interesting tidbit on MI WR Commit Jeremy Jackson:

He could be moved inside as a stand-up tight end because he is physical enough to handle linebackers and would create mismatches for them in the passing game.

That move would make him a speed mismatch as a tight end, rather than a height mismatch from the wideout position. I hadn’t considered it, but it certainly makes sense, and would slightly alter the distribution of commits in the class so far.

OH CB Christian Bryant likes Ohio State and Tennessee. Given his Glenville association, that makes perfect sense (Ohio State gets any Glenville kid they want, and CB Mike Edwards signed with UT last year). Bryant, like most Glenville kids, plans to take his time before making a decision.

I’ve been forgetting to mention this, but OH OL Andrew Norwell committed to Ohio State. He’s been removed from the board.
TX QB Connor/Conner Wood committed to Texas, so hes been removed.

…and now for your dose of epic stupid when it comes to recruiting:

Penn State is either in the drivers seat, or else in great shape, with every single one of those kids except Malik Stokes. It is the consensus that Stokes is incredibly overrated. He has contacts in the media who have inflated him like they inflated his older brother J’ron. Stokes will be a hot commodity because his brother is a year older than him and just committed in a pretty high profile recruitment, since he decommitted from Tennessee and ended up at Michigan.

Somebody doesn’t know the meaning of the word “consensus,” because it’s literally impossible for there to be a consensus that something or someone is overrated. Yes “J’ron” (which one must assume is intended to refer to Je’Ron) was incredibly overrated, which is why his stock went up after the Army All-American bowl, when he was still committed to Tennessee, and before his Comcast special was even proposed, much less filmed. I’m sure your opinion of the Stokes brothers is in no way altered by Je’Ron not giving the Nittany Lions the time of day, even when they tried desparately to get back in on him late in the process. FAIL.

For the record, I think Stokes is nothing more than a second option at QB in the class.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati
February 21, 2009
4pm
Brighthouse Field
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: Cincinnati
Probable Pitchers: Travis Smith (0-0) vs Tyler Smith (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 4-6
Last Series/Game: Michigan 5 – Cincinnati 2, May 1930

Overview
In the second game for Michigan in the Big10/BigEast Challenge is with the University of Cincinnati BearCats. Despite ending the season one win away from winning the BigEast tournament (39-20 overall record, 19-8 BigEast record), Cincinnati will be the weakest team Michigan will face in the challenge; the BearCats are a team picked by the BigEast coaches to finish in 5th place. As you see above, we haven’t played Cincinnati in recent history. All 10 games were played while Ray Fisher (whom the stadium is named after) was coach, between 1922 and 1930. Records don’t even indicate where the games were played, just the score.

Stars

Mike Spina, Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati returns two key players on offense, both preseason BigEast team members, in senior third basemen Mike Spina and senior right fielder Cameron Satterwhite. Spina is the team’s top returning hitter from a year ago with an average of .377, team leading 79 RBIs, BigEast leading homerun total of 21, and BigEast leading .731 SLUG%. This 45th round draft pick of the Minnesota Twins was a monster. He holds the Cincinnati school record for those home run and RBI totals. A key will be to keep him in the ballpark. Last year, more than half of Spina’s homeruns came in multi-homerun games (he had six games with two home runs). He will most likely batting third in the lineup for the BearCats this season.

Following behind him in the cleanup spot will be Cameron Satterwhite, a name that may ring a bell for some Big10 baseball fans. Satterwhite was originally a commit to Indiana, where he played 21 games in 2006. Michigan didn’t face Indiana that year, but he did bat .371 in 26 games for the Hoosiers. Satterwhite batted .364 last season with 61 RBIs, 14 homeruns, and 21 doubles. Satterwhite may be the most valuable player for the BearCats because he forces teams to pitch to Spina. Hopefully being the second game of the season, we may catch both of these players before they really get their bats going.

Other Starters

Outside of these two, the BearCats also return junior left fielder Jamel Scott. Scott batted .311 last season in the two hole. Most impressively, he was able to swipe 35 stolen bases. He will be a threat every time he reaches base.

There is a chance that Scott may start at second base, he played a few games there last year, and last year’s team leader Josh Harrison graduated, leaving a vacancy. That being said, it does sound like true freshman T.J. Jones will be the starting second basemen. Jones is a small (5’8″) local product, so there is no telling how good he may be.

Also returning is sophomore shortstop Chris Peters. Peters was good enough to start at shortstop from day one on campus, but he did play like a freshman. Peters only bat .241 on the season and committed 12 errors. The final returning starter is the lone left handed bat returning, first baseman Kevin Johnson. Johnson and Peters were consistently the 8 and 9 hole hitters on the team and appear to offer little threat at the plate.  Johnson has good power, knocking 7 homeruns last year, but his average is a measly .250.  He is much better as a fielder though, owning a .991 fielding percentage.  Don’t expect too many balls to get past him.

As of this point, we don’t really know what to expect behind the plate with first year starter and JUCO transfer Jim Jacquot trying to earn and keep his spot. He is described as big enough to handle the job, but he has yet to compete at the D-1 level.

The final outfield slot will be filled by JUCO transfer Lance Durham.  Little is know about him other than hitting .338 last year for Kaskaskia College.  Junior college numbers tend to be a poor way to judge a players ability.  Pitchers in JUCO are either immensely awesome (but they can’t qualify for college or have behavior problems to keep them out of the pros) or immensely awful.  Kaskaskiais a fairly successful program and Durham appears to be one of their top products of late as most others players have just advanced to the D2 level.  Durham was a 6th round draft pick of the Tigers, but forewent signing to finish his degree.

Sophomore Justin Riddell will start the year at designated hitter.  He made 23 starts at DH last year with meh results.  His batting average was only .272 over the 40 games he made appearances in.  Riddell was very streaky last year, recording 10 multi-hit games in 35 starts.  Those games accounted for well over half his hits.

Pitchers

Michael Hill, Image from GoBearCats.com

The BearCats also return three of their top four starters on the mound in senior RHP Michael Hill, junior LHP Brian Garman, and junior RHP Tyler Smith. Michael Hill is the team’s definite ace. Hill went 6-4 last year with a team best 3.46 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts). He posted 7.25 K/9-innings while maintaining a 16:65 walks to strikeout ratio which is pretty good for a college pitcher. Hill’s average start last season was about 6 1/3 innings, which meant the bullpen can be brought out early. If Hill gets used in their opener against Purdue, they may be breaking out the bullpen early in the classic. This generally leads to great results for opposing offenses.

If Hill is used agaisnt Purdue, my bet is we see Brian Garman. Garman has made some large strides this offseason after having a fairly rough ending to last year. Garman ended the year with a respectable 5-3 record spanning 15 appearances (9 starts). Garman’s problem was his 6.24 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Garman may be a solid choice to start against the Wolverines due to the high number of left handers in the Michigan lineup (for you non-baseball people out there, statistics suggest that it is harder to hit a person who is the same dominate hand as the batter, such as left handed pitcher to left handed batter).

If it is not Garman, it may be right hander Tyler Smith. Smith was 3-3 in 13 appearances (12 starts) with a 4.27 ERA. Smith is more of a strikeout pitcher with 8.55 K/9-inning, but he also tends to issue more walks (23:50 walk to strikeout ratio).

Update:  Although this was posted today, I received word about an hour ago that Tyler Smith is indeed the starter for our game.  I wish I had more information on him, but alas, I work the hand I’m dealt.

Relief

In relief, Cincinnati returns its top closer and setup man. Senior RHP Jake Geglein, the 2009 team captain, returns with his 3-0 record and 9 saves. His 2.30 ERA, .267 opponent batting average, and 36 Ks in 43 innings are impressive. Geglein is currently 4th all-time at Cincinnati with 11 saves (they aren’t as common in the college game). Setting up Geglein will be Senior RHP Billy Welsh. Welsh only made it into 17 innings in 13 appearances last season, but posted a 1-0 record with 3 saves. His 2.08 ERA and .190 opponent batting averages were a team best.

Links of Various Relevancy

UC Preview Part 1: Overview and Catchers (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 2: Middle Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 3: Corner Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 4: Outfielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 5: Pitchers (GoBearcats.com, to be released Friday)
Weekend Preview (GoBearCats.com)

Posted under Baseball

Now that is how you start a season right there.  Down 5-2 to start the 8th inning, Michigan loads the bases, scores three runs to tie.   Burgoon comes in to shut down the USF lineup in the top of the 9th.  We get a lead off double to start the ninth.  Kenny Fellows gets just enough of the ball to score the runner from second on a ground ball up the middle.  Game over, pandemonium on the Michigan side of the stands (I can imagine), Michigan Wins! Michigan Wins!

The game started out pretty ugly.  Fetter was roughed up early, giving up 3 runs in the first two innings.  Baserunning was another area we looked pretty bad in.  We were picked off twice by USF starter Randy Fontanez, and we should have been picked off in the 8th, but two bad throws lead to the game tying run coming across the plate.

Things worked out well though.  The bullpen looked good, only giving up 2 runs in 4 innings.  Jake McLouth (brother of major leaguer Nate McLouth) knocked his first career home run in his first career at bat.  The corner outfielders (Urban and Fellows) went 5/6 at the plate with several RBIs, even Lamarre in center added a key RBI single.

All in all, we looked damn good.  I’ll recap the whole weekend on Monday, and take a look at some of the stats a little more in depth.  Now we wait until tomorrow when we face Purdue at 11am.

Posted under Baseball

Back in November, The Blue-Gray Sky made a post evaluating Charlie Weis, whether he had reached his ceiling, etc. While not particularly interesting to the non-ND fan on the whole, there was an interesting idea contained within, and that is giving a coach grades in several key categories. Those chosen by Jeff were Offensive Mind, Defensive Mind, Recruiting, Fundamentals, and Motivation. Their comparison was between Charlie Weis and Lou Holtz, which ended up looking like this:

Grades
Category	Lou Holtz	Charlie Weis
Offensive Mind	B	B
Defensive Mind	C	C+
Recruiting	A	A
Fundamentals	A	D
Motivation	A++	C

This is a pretty good representation (though Weis’ offensive mind is clearly overrated – see games against Boston College, Syracuse, San Diego State, USC, etc. – all in his fourth year and with his own recruits). However, I’m obviously not here to talk about Notre Dame coaches, I’m here to apply this concept to Rich Rodriguez.

Offensive Mind – A-

Of course, Rich came to Michigan as an offensive genius, the father of the zone-read offense, engineer of the West Virginia Spread n’ Shred, etc. So how do I not give the man at least an ‘A,’ if not an ‘A+?’ Rich is a very good offensive mind, but he’s very much married to his offensive system, and while he can adapt it somewhat, I don’t see in him the creativity that someone like Chip Kelly brought to Oregon’s (very similar) offense. Maybe down the road, when he gets the personnel he needs, he’ll be a little more creative. however, I’m not sure there was tons of evidence for that in his time at West Virginia, and it remains to be seen if there are many tricks up his sleeve.

Defensive Mind – D+

Rich has never really worried much about defense. He’s put his focus into offense, and hired a defensive coordinator he trusts (or doesn’t trust and fires after one year) to be the “head coach” of the defense. This can be construed as a negative if it doesn’t work out, or a strong positive if it does. Coach Rod does have a reputation for being loyal to his friends from West Virginia, rather than surrounding himself with the best assistants available, so it is something of a weakness.

Recruiting – A-

When you take into account all the media-fueled “turmoil” around the Michigan program, and the negative recruiting that has stemmed from it, Rich has had a great pair of recruiting classes. He’s been able to pull down a pair of top-10 efforts with all the uncertainty around Michigan and the headhunting in the press. Just that alone is worthy of a grade in the A-range. If he’s able to start pulling in annual top-5 or top-3 classes once Michigan starts winning, this grade certainly has upward potential.

Fundamentals – B-

The coaching staff stresses fundamentals, and from everything we know about Rich’s past, he’s very very into teaching fundamentals. However, with Michigan’s play on the field last year, how can he get any better a grade than this? The offensive line in particular improved over the course of the year (and indeed, Greg Frey has the biggest “fundamentals guy” reputation among the coaches), so maybe as the system is installed more, and as the coaches settle in, the fundamental focus will improve.

Motivation – A

You’ve seen the Barwis video. I’ve seen the Barwis video. Barwis may not be Rodriguez, but the two are definitely an inseparable unit, and the motivation that Barwis brings is amazing. Rodriguez himself isn’t such a bad motivator (though, from the sounds of things, he was a little too focused on the stick, and not the carrot at times last spring), and the tandem is amazing motivationally.

When broken into units, it’s easy to see why coach Rodriguez is considered one of the top football leaders in the country. As long as he has a good defensive coordinator to take care of that side of the ball, he should be able to build any team and any program to success in due time.

Anything you don’t agree with? Debate in the comments.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Guaranteed to go better than football! –FA

Tribute to the 2009 Season, (most)Images from Blue Cats and Red Sox’s flickr

Spring is in the air. The sun is shining, snow is melting, birds are chirping, and the ping of aluminum bats can be heard in the air. It’s baseball season.

Today marks Opening Day 2009 for your Michigan Wolverines. These guys have been toiling in Oosterbaan, challenging the cold at Ray Fisher Stadium, and studying like crazy, preparing themselves for the next 94 days. In 94 days, we will have a Big10 champion crowned, and maybe, for the fourth year in a row, that champion will be Michigan.

The Wolverines lost a lot this off season. They lost their do-it-all star, Zack Putnam. They lost the biggest bat they’ve had in years, first basemen Nate Recknagel. They lose their captain, short stop Jason Christian. They lose Leif Mahler at second.

But they return the top pitcher north of the Mason-Dixon line, Chris Fetter. They return one of the top senior second basemen in the region, Kevin Cislo. The leadership is there.

They return the entire outfield with Ryan Lamarre, Kenny Fellows, and Alan Oaks. They have the familiar face of Mike Dufek retaining his place at first base. They welcome back the once injured Anthony Toth at shortstop. The defense is solid and the offense loaded.

The expectations are high this year. Some would say too high. Baseball America ($) goes so far to pick Indiana. To quote Alan Oaks,

“Guys see that and are really kinda pissed off about it, actually,” …

“It’s definitely a slap in the face,” fifth year senior tri-captain Tim Kalczynski said … “Especially after we’ve proven ourselves for the past three years. There’s definitely going to be fire in our bellies when we’re playing … It’s going to be good motivation for us.”

Now that’s what you want to hear.

The Challenge

Image from bigeastbigtenchallenge.com

The team starts today at 1pm in Clearwater, Florida witha clash of conferences. The Big10 faces off with the other big time mid major of the north, the BigEast, or at least most of that conference. While the Big10 is sending all 10* of its teams, the BigEast is sending only 8 of 12. #16 Louisville** is the one program missing that I really wish would have made it in the bracket. While it hurts to be missing such a good team in the Challenge, the competition is still much better than the last few opening weeks Michigan has had recently (Villanova, Bethune Cookman, and Troy/South Alabama/Alabama-Birmingham).

The Challenge is in its first year and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts. The timing of the event should work in its favor as it occurs the weekend before the MLB teams start their scrimmages. Those who show up for pitchers and catchers reporting will have a chance to make it out. Some of the alumni invited to Grape Fruit League camps can stop into Tampa pretty easily too. Ticket prices are pretty good too. $10 gets you a full pass to every game. $5 will get you a full day pass. Not bad at all.

Unlike the ACC/Big10 challenge in basketball, the BigEast/Big10 Challenge has teams facing multiple opponents. Each team will face three opponents from the opposing conference. The Big10 teams have also added a game against conference opponents as well just to help the teams get in extra games while helping schools reduce the cost of traveling.

Big10 teams facing each other are picked based on the unbalanced conference season schedule. Each Big10 team misses one conference opponent each year. The opponent rotates every two years, much like the football schedule, but with only one team instead of two. This year, like last, we drew Purdue.

Michigan has drawn South Florida, Cincinnati, and St. John’s on the Challenge schedule. We were lucky to draw such quality competition. The three teams are all expected to finish in the top 5 places in their conference (along with Louisville and Notre Dame). Michigan has a good chance at defeating all three opponents, but you never know in college baseball, especially this early in the year.

Link-fest

Jim Abbott, Image from mgoblue.com

• Formerly on Maizenbrew:  BTN baseball viewing schedule, players lost from 2008 season, offensive players returning, pitchers returning,  new(er) faces and a guess at the lineup/rotation.
• If you’d like to download the Michigan Baseball Schedule for Outlook, Google Calendar, or any other calendar program, go here, copy this file into a Notepad/.txt file. You can import it into your calendar program and every day Michigan plays, you’ll have it on your calendar. For other D1 teams, here’s the full list.
• Team captains Chris Fetter, Tim Kalczynski, and Kevin Cislo are blogging throughout the season. Week One and Week Two were everyday, but it’s slowing to every other week for the rest of the season. Kalczynski is hilarious, Fetter is appreciative of his coaches, and Cislo bounces back and forth. Their latest post describes Coach FungoMan, the ground ball hitting machine.
• Jim Abbott is having his #31 jersey retired this season (hence Kenny Fellows changing #13). Jim Abbott is the greatest one handed pitcher ever to win the World Series. As a matter of fact, he’s the only one handed pitcher to play in the World Series. The guy was a Wolverine great, and if you ever get to see his biography, you should. The story about him facing the Cuban national team was inspiring.
• The preseason weekly release is out (pdf). Interesting note that Alan Oaks does not appear to have earned the starting slot in right field. It lists Nick Urban (former backup second baseman) as the probable starter. Earlier this week I had guessed Oaks in right and Urban at DH. It looks like redshirt freshman catcher Jake McClouth will have a shot at DH’ing to start the year.
• Alumnus Bobby Korecky (2002) was claimed by the Diamondbacks from the Twins. MGoBlue keeps up with the baseball alumni here.

*Wisconsin hasn’t fielded a team since the early 90s
**rankings from USA Today Coaches Poll

Posted under Baseball