…a post about a team that wasn’t even close to getting there!

Michigan’s 2007-08 season was a disappointment by almost any standards. Not only did Michigan not make the postseason, but the Wolverines were well below .500, and lost to opponents both superior and inferior. A lack of senior leadership (Ron Coleman was the team’s only graduating player) and overall depth (Michigan had only 9ish scholarship players after several Wolverines left the program) were key factors leading to the poor outcome for the team. A lack of players who were capable of running John Beilein’s offensive system, which is heavy on three pointers, was also a stumbling block.

The future, however, is much brighter. Michigan loses only Ronald Coleman as a scholarship player, and has three incoming freshmen who are better fits for the Beilein offense than the players left behind by Tommy Amaker. Ben Cronin, a big man who can shoot, and a pair of shooting guards with long range capabilities in Stu Douglass and Zach Novak spell a brighter future for the team. Additionally, Arizona transfer Laval Lucas-Perry will bring additional talent. Losing Coleman is not a big hit. Though he was recruited as a shooter, he could not hit from the outside consistently enough for Beilein’s system.

Roster Analysis – 2008-09

With 13 scholarships allowed for the team, Michigan will either be able to take one more freshman next year, or bank the schollie for the following recruiting class and give it to preferred walkon Eric Puls. Please note that the roster on MGoBlue is terrible, so this may not be entirely accurate.

Minutes Played: Top 4 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Grady).
Points Scored: Top 6 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Grady, Gibson, Wright).
Steals: Top 5 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Lee, Grady).
Blocks: Top 6 return. (Udoh, Sims, Gibson, Harris, Wright, Shepherd).
Assists: Top 3 return. (Grady, Harris, Lee).

The main scary part is assist-to-turnover ratio. While the top two (Kelvin Grady and C.J. Lee) return, Coleman was third, and at 1.25 the only other player with more than one assist per turnover. Fans can take heart in the fact that two of the top three Michigan players in terms of turnovers (Manny Harris and Kelvin Grady) were just freshman, and it stands to reason that they have nowhere to go but up.

Posted under Basketball

I can only blog the first half, but hopefully it turns out like last time I was only able to blog half of a game against Iowa.

12:04 PM Tipoff is won by Iowa.
18:10 1H Iowa finally draws first blood on a drive to the hoop. Udoh get some post points to answer.
17:30 1H Iowa misses another open look for three. Michigan has given up a couple of those, they’re lucky Iowa hasn’t capitalized.
16:57 1H Another open Iowa look that Michigan is lucky they missed. Udoh draws the loose-ball foul on the rebound,
16:21 1H Michigan gets his first lead of the game on a Manny Harris jumper. Michigan forces Iowa to run down the clock and take a DEEP three that is missed.
14:34 1H Michigan’s strong man defense puts a lot of pressure on the ball, forcing a turnover. Anthony Wright capitalizes on the other end with three. The defense is looking good other than the giving up of open threeball looks earlier.
14:33 1H Timeout. 10-4 Michigan.
13:41 1H Iowa nails a threeball, then there’s a TV timeout on a Michigan foul when the Hawkeyes get the ball back. 10-7 Michigan.
12:37 1H More strong man defense from Michigan leads to a Hawkeye turnover. Deshawn Sims hits a jumper on the break. Fortunately for the Wolverines, Iowa is stone cold from the floor.
12:03 1H Three ball is good for Manny Harris. After a couple more missed Iowa FGs, Deshawn Sims is fouled rebounding the ball.
TV Timeout. 15-7 Michigan 11:39 1H.
11:25 1H Manny Harris comes of the dribble-handoff screen and nails a fairly deep three. Michigan 4-7 from the arc. More good defensive pressure from Michigan. They knock the ball out of bounds with 12 of the shot clock and Michigan steals off the inbound, leading to more Manny Harris points.
9:56 1H Iowa gets a switch off a screen, adn Freeman uses a nice stepback move on Anthony Wright.
9:30 1H David Merritt makes an appearance!
9:10 1H Commentator notices that Michigan is showing much more hustle. the 22-9 lead is certainly evidence of that.
8:43 1H Where was this defense all year? Obviously the poor shooting so far by Iowa has helped, but Michigan is causing turnovers left and right. this time, it’s a 3-second violation.
7:52 1H Really nice play by Iowa to get Michigan scrambling, then a fake shot to feed down low for an easy deuce.
22-11 Michigan 7:23 1H.
7:01 1H Not a great offensive foul called, drawn by Ekpe Udoh. I’ll take it. Deshawn Sims gets a three on the other side.
6:19 1H A better call this time, as Justin Johnson’s shoulder is lowered and the forearm extended. You really don’t want to get an offensive foul that far from the basket.
5:35 1H Loose ball foul on Iowa, though I think the play should have been called out of bounds off the top of the backboard first.
4:43 1H Michigan is coming back to its regular form, as they turn it over for the second consecutive trip down the floor. Iowa is getting a chance to stay in this game. An and-1 for the Hawks does just that.
4:25 1H The first free throw for either team is missed. Manny Harris gets a deep 2 on the other end.
TV Timeout. 3:54 1H 27-15 Michigan. Iowa shooting 2 when we get back.
3:15 1H Cyrus Tate heads to the foul line once more. This time it was a pretty bad call, as Ekpe Udoh kept his arms completely vertical the whole time. Tate gets both.
2:55 1H Ekpe Udoh’s second foul comes on an illegal screen. Michigan’s at-least-once-per-game scoring drought has begun.
2:24 1H Zach Gibson ends the drought with authority, getting a big dunk and the foul. He does work on the other end as well, accepting a charge from Tony Freeman.
1:53 1H Michigan’s strong defense again forces a bad shot by Iowa. The ricochet of the rim ends up out of bounds, off the Hawkeyes.
1:08 1H Gibson nearly blocks a runner off the glass, but it drops for Iowa, and they are back within 8.
0:39 1H Offensive rebound, true hustle play by Gibson. Tate fouls Deshawn Sims. He’ll shoot 1-and-1.
0:18 1 H after a good half of defense, Michigan lets a three ball shooter get wide open again, and this time Iowa capitalizes. Zach Gibson finishes the half with a field goal.
Halftime. Michigan leads 34-25.

Posted under Basketball

Chesterton Indiana shooting guard Zach Novak (6-4, 215) has committed to Coach John Beilein of the Michigan basketball program. He is the third player committed to the Wolverines.

His local paper does not like to spellcheck. Like, even for the name of the person the article is about. He was an Indiana All-Star as a junior. Novak is a three point shooter who will fit in well with the Michigan team, other than the fact that he is actually capable of making the occasional shot.

Posted under Basketball

If you really want to know about tempo-free statistics, you should really head over to Basketball Prospectus. Anything and everything you would ever want to know about the statistical analysis of basketball is there. Since the Big Ten Wonk left his blogspot home and moved to BP, there hasn’t really been a focus on the statistics of Big Ten Basketball lately.

I’m just starting to get into this and I haven’t really gone too deep into the statistics. For those of you who like charts (and/or AJAX filled Web2.0 applications) I compiled some basic tempo free stats online. You can see them here. The conference sheet is sorted by Possessions and the U of M sheet is sorted by effective field goal percentage.

If you want a quick crash course on tempo-free statistics, I recommend checking out the tutorial on Big Ten Wonk.

From looking at Michigan’s stats compared to the rest of the conference, I’m cautiously optimistic. One of the biggest complaints I had from the Amaker era was the frequency of turnovers, which killed any chance of Michigan winning. Michigan this year is number 3 in the conference in Turnovers per Possession (TOPP on the chart). Another complaint is that the games were boring. Michigan versus Northwestern did not even pretend to be a basketball game as both teams pointlessly dribbled or passed the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock ran down. Michigan is 3rd in the conference in possessions behind only Purdue and Illinois. This does not mean they are good, but it’s more a matter of personal preference. I like a smooth, flowing game; the change is like going from Mike DeBord to Rich Rodriguez.

Where Michigan is crashing and burning is shooting the ball. They have the worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in conference. eFG% even appropriately weights the benefits of 3pt shots and it still doesn’t bring them up. Michigan is shooting about 46% when the median is 50%. There could be a silver lining on this horrible showing. Michigan is 4-1 when their eFG% is greater than 50%. It isn’t ridiculous to think that once Beilein gets his players in and really gets the freshman and sophomore class shooting well this team will contend.

Beilein has stopped a lot of the bad the Amaker left him. He just needs to get his players playing his system and things should look up. If Michigan shoots well, they can beat some good teams (see Ohio State). I think most of the pain from this season is coming from square pegs meeting round holes.

I’ll try to dig a little deeper through the week and look up some defensive numbers. The spreadsheet is saved on GoogleDocs, so if anyone wants to put together the team table for their (or any) team, let me know and you can be added as a collaborator.

Posted under Basketball

Rich Rodriguez spoke at halftime of the basketball victory over Ohio State yesterday.

Proof:

Posted under Coaching, Video

Excuse me if this is shitty; it’s been a long time since I’ve done one of these.
9:06PM The tipoff is won by Michigan. Coleman actually does something worthwhile, drawing a foul in the post. He then ruins it by going 1-2 at the line.
19:10 1H Michigan comes out in man defense, Iowa gets an offensive rebound and nails a three. Ron Coleman travels on the way back up the court.
17:33 1H Manny Harris makes a strong drive to the hoop, and bricks an ugly pullup jumper. Udoh goes over the back on the rebound.
17:00 1H Michigan forces Iowa to throw up a shitty three at the end of the shot clock, and Udoh finishes at the other end with a dunk. Then, the other way back down, he fumbles a rebound, ball to Iowa.
15:55 1H Manny Harris plays weak defense on an Iowa drive to the hoop. If he just stands his ground, it’s a charge.
14:57 1H Michigan’s defensive rebounding has been awful. Fortunately, “dribble” was not near the top of Iowa’s agenda, whereas “walk” was. Commercial break.
9:14PM Back to the game.
14:33 1H Kelvin Grady banks one in. As bad as Michigan’s shooting has been at times this year, it is refreshing to see players who look like they have a fucking clue on the offensive end of the court. Michigan compensates with giving an easy dunk to Iowa.
13:27 1H DeShawn Sims airballs a wide open 3-ball on the fast break.
12:52 1H Michigan scrambles because Manny Harris tries to go for a steal. Ekpe Udoh has to go out for a block attempt in the corner, leaving nobody in position to get a rebound if the shot is missed. It isn’t.
11:36 1H Really bad call by the officials giving the ball to Iowa on an out-of-bounds call. Michigan deserves to lose it, I guess, based on the shitty idea by Manny Harris to get in the air under the basket. Commercial Break.
9:21PM Back to the action.
11:25 1H Michigan goes for the trap, and gets good pressure on the ballhandlers despite not forcing the turnover.
11:00 1H Shot clock low, Freeman hucks one and gets lucky. Anthony Wright tosses it out of bounds. It seems Michigan can’t just make one mistake, but rather must compound said mistake to put selves in a hole.
9:30 1H Gibson gets whacked on the offensive glass. No call. They can’t get a defensive rebound to save their lives.
8:32 1H I think this is a makeup call. Manny Harris is nominally fouled going for the rebound on a shot that would have ended Michigan’s chances.
8:12 1H Todd Lickliter takes the ball away from Jevohn Shepherd, who is trying to save it out of bounds. CJ Lee looks the gift horse in the mouth by immediately traveling. They can’t even utilize Iowa’s mistakes to their advantage.
6:57 1H Seemingly a bad call on an Iowa travel. Oh well, Michigan needs all the help they can get. TV Timeout.
9:30PM The action starts again.
6:42 1H Michigan turns it over immediately again. They haven’t scored in 7+ minutes.
5:43 1H Many Harris is stripped going up for a 3, Tony Freeman returns the favor by turning it over on the fast break.
5:27 1H After a quick TV timeout, DeShawn Sims finally gets Michigan back on the board. Kelly answers with a 3 for Iowa.
3:45 1H Terrible call giving Michigan the ball on a play out of bounds. TV Timeout.
9:38PM Back in the house. Holy god is Iowa’s stadium empty. It’s like 10 times worse than Crisler.
3:36 1H Michigan finally hits a 3 (after 7(?) attempts). DeShawn Sims gets Michigan back within 9.
2:54 1H Deshawn Sims gets the rebound after Iowa forces a 3 at the end of the shot clock. He is fouled on the play. Michigan has some signs of life. Michigan returns the favor, with Ekpe Udoh fouling on the rebound of DeShawn Sims’s hookshot.
2:06 1H Iowa gets an easy dunk with 1 second left on the shot clock. At least Michigan is defending well enough to force them to use all the clock. Sims brick a three on the other end.
1:25 1H Johnson airballs a trey for Iowa. Manny Harris Harris is whacked on a left handed runner, and Zack Gibson pulls it down while abosorbing a foul. He’ll shoot two.
0:53 1H An Iowa player performs the funciontal equivalent of airballing a layup, hitting glass and not coming close to anything else. Harris fouls on the rebound. Michigan eventually gets the ball back for the last shot of the half.
0:09 1H DeShawn Sims with a… curious… shot with 7 seconds left on the shot clock. Iowa boards, and runs back to brick one last three pointer of the half.

Michigan trails 27-16 at halftime.

This is painful to watch; second half not being blogged.

Posted under Basketball

Coach Beilein has dismissed Jerret Smith from the Michigan basketball team. This makes 3 players that have left the program since Beilein became coach. K’Len Morris and Kendric Price left for personal reasons.

Posting on football pending when I have time to sit down for a minute and do it.

Posted under Basketball

After watching Michigan handily defeat Radford and Brown this weekend here are a few things that I’ve noticed.

1. John Beilein can flat out coach. This is a completely different looking team at both ends of the floor. Beilein is putting guys in positions where they can succeed and is not asking them to do too much. It’s going to be very exciting once he can develop some talent and build a deeper program. Right now he’s going to have to rely on DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris for a bulk of Michigan’s scoring and you can’t have just two reliable scorers in college basketball.

2. Kelvin Grady might beat out Jerret Smith at the point guard spot. He has really good speed and he sees the floor so well. Daniel Horton did not run the fast break as well as Grady has in these first two games. He has really good vision and I have seen him on numerous occasions find DeShawn Sims or Manny Harris for very easy layups. He is really quick defensively and fits in nicely at the bottom of the 1-3-1 zone.

3. Manny Harris can flat out play. This kid was brought in to rescue Michigan basketball and he just might do that. He has a rare combination of length and quickness that allows him to play the top of the 1-3-1. I lost count as to how many tips he caused when he and Ron Coleman or DeShawn Sims trapped the ball handler in the corner.

4. When you watch DeShawn Sims play, you can see why Tommy Amaker was fired. This guy has proven in the first two games that he can score from anywhere on the floor. Yet under Tommy Amaker he was the second big man off the bench. He is a really smart player and is going to be a force to be reckoned with come Big Ten play. I’m having a hard time thinking of a player in the Big Ten that is as versatile as DeShawn Sims.

Bottom line: This team still has a long way to go. I do not see them winning at Georgetown or Duke, and I do not see them beating UCLA at home. However, don’t be surprised if they make a run in Alaska. The teams up there are not going to have a lot of time to prepare and may not know what to expect. If Michigan can knock down the three’s with the same consistency, they are going to beat Butler and possibly even Virginia Tech in the second round. We will know a lot more about this team after the Great Alaska Shootout. However, even if they do not produce results, just go back to point number one and remember that they are in good hands.

Posted under Basketball

Obviously unaware that the Michigan Basketball coach is prohibited from interacting with media.

Highlights:

• His final assistant will be Jerry Dunn, unless Dunn lands a head coaching gig somewhere else. If that’s the case, they will conduct interviews to complete the staff.
• He took his first full campus tour yesterday (I actually know a lot of people who saw him around), and liked it.
• He didn’t explicitly say what was going to happen with the unused scholarships (Reed Baker’s, Alex Legion’s). He likes transfers that are looking to move to a bigger stage, however.
• He has never has a favorite NBA team. Now the Pistons will be his favorite team. When he watches games, he is focusing on individual skills, not rooting one way or the other.
• The summer camps have been rescheduled to not conflict with other things (recruiting). There will also be team camps, where entire AAU teams are welcomed.

Posted under Basketball

Overview: Waste of time

Fun Bill Martin Pythagorean Theorem: A2 + B2 = C2 (Ann Arbor + Beilein, Borseth = Championship, Championship)

Number of raffles and lame contests: Approx. 15

Notably Absent: Ekpe Udoh

Mary Coleman’s size as a proportion of Bill Martin: 1/2

Things said that have not been already mentioned at at least one press conference: 0

Number of recent Kevin Borseth recruiting trips to Virginia: 1

Posted under Basketball