As has been reported just about everywhere except, oddly, GBW, DeWayne Peace has decommitted from Michigan. I’ll cover this much more in-depth in tomorrows (fairly massive, perhaps resulting in being split up) recruiting post.

And now, I return to hammering out the Indiana Basketball UFR.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Obviously I don’t want this to become a recruiting-only site (and there is a recruiting update coming sometime today or tomorrow, though I foresee there being at least one post and likely two about the Oakland basketball game), but when something big happens, I think it’s important to address. This, obviously, is considered a big event.

After assuring everyone who would listen that he was firmly committed to Michigan, and would consider no other schools, Shavodrick Beaver pulled the old bait-and-switch on us all Friday, and decommitted from Michigan, giving his verbal pledge to Tulsa. That is correct, Shavodrick Beaver picked a Conference-USA team over one of the most storied programs in college football history.

Why did he do it?

So what could have possibly been Beaver’s motivation for changing his commitment? Rumors (and many of them complete guesses) have been thrown around from all corners of the internet, and nobody really knows which are true and which aren’t. One of the prevailing theories is that he wants to be closer to his mom, or his mom gave him no choice but to go somewhere closer to home. That may be the case, but then why not go somewhere closer? His original runner-up to Michigan was TCU. The Horned Frogs are based in Fort Worth, much closer to Wichita Falls than Tulsa is. Regardless, that factor may have been an issue in his commitment to Michigan sticking.

Another issue may have been the fact that he would have likely started – on account of his shoulder surgery – stuck behind Tate Forcier on the depth chart.Perhaps Beaver didn’t see a situation in which he would ever be able to play, being slotted behind a guy in his own class, with other guys coming in the future. The final theory is related to the first, and holds that he didn’t want the pressure of playing in a bigtime program, choosing instead to head to Conference-USA, where he could be a big-time player without the pressure of being in a program expecting big-time success. The one theory that doesn’t really make much sense is that the Michigan staff cut him loose. Despite his comments that the Tulsa coaches made him feel more like a member of the family (which every recruit has been saying about Michigan, as well), I think the Michigan coaching staff would have had a better contingency plan in place if they had any idea a decommitment was on the way.

As another side note, regardless of what those “in the know” say, almost nobody saw this coming (except perhaps the coaches themselves). Any retroactive “well I knew this was going to happen” is simply revisionist history, since just last week, most recruiting experts were trying to assure everyone that Beaver was still solid, and that the comments on his MySpace page were nothing to worry about. Being blindsided by an event like this is nothing to be ashamed of, and one shouldn’t rewrite history to give the appearance of seeing this sort of event come to fruition.

Short-Term Trouble

The 2009 recruiting class has suddenly gone from greatly shoring up a major position of need, with two 4-star quarterback commits, to still needing another body, much less a great player, to even come close to filling the numbers necessary to field a team at the position. Now, Threet and Sheridan are the only options other than Forcier, and if any of the three goes down, regardless of who was the starter, there is already a depth issue arising. The coaching staff will need to find another quarterback in this class, simply in case one or more of the existing QBs gets injured this year. That said, they will likely go with a player with very good running ability and a passing game that needs some work. That way, there is potential for a move to the defensive backfield or slot receiver if the numbers at QB look better in the future.

Might we see Justin Feagin playing a little bit at the QB position (instead of moving to slot, as had been announced) in 2009? It’s not likely, unless the Wolverines can’t pull in another QB/Ath in the class of ’09. Another bummer from the Beaver situation is that Michigan will now go from two quarterbacks enrolling early to one enrolling early, with another hopefully coming in the fall. The preparedness of the group as a whole will undoubtedly be decreased.

Long-Term Ramifications

Without Beaver in the class of 2009, what are the effects on the Wolverines down the road (that is, further in the future than the 2009 season)? It appears likely that whoever they pick up to fill the other QB slot in the 2009 class will likely move to slot or defensive back down the road, when the numbers get back up to where they should be. That give Michigan much better spacing between classes at the QB position, as there won’t be many in a single class. This means the Wolverines are less likely to graduate all their players at the position in a single year, jeopardizing future years.

That takes us to future recruiting classes. Only having one true QB in the class of 2009 certainly makes Michigan more attractive to signal-callers in the class of 2010, namely one Devin Gardner, an in-state product who has great potential as a run-pass threat in this offensive system. Gardner will likely be rated a high-4 or 5-star prospect, and rated more highly than either Tate Forcier or Shavodrick Beaver (of course, there’s the little issue that he won’t be able to play for Michigan until the 2010 season holding him back from being the current #1 target). Though the Beaver situation is unfortunate, it may help Michigan in the long run, provided the Wolverines aren’t completely screwed short-term.

So What Does It All Mean?

Decommitments are almost never a good thing. They provide ammo for an inexplicably-ruthless local press, and open the door to negative recruiting pitches from other schools. This particular decommitment particularly hurts Michigan, especially in the short term. As an aside, I don’t understand why Beaver had to speak ill of Michigan, considering he didn’t seem to harbor any ill will, he’s just hurting the coaches who have done nothing but good for him. In the long run, Michigan will go on. Might the 2009 season suffer because of a lack of QB depth? Perhaps, but the long-term picture is changed very little, and the Michigan Wolverines will go on without Shavodrick Beaver.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

More bad recruiting news, as Anthony Fera has decommitted from Michigan.

As much as people think the position isn’t particularly important for recruiting, we really could have used a good kicker in the 2009 class, and the mere fact that there is more attrition at all is a little unsettling for Michigan fans who follow recruiting.

We’ll have to see where the staff goes with this, and I’ll bring more info as it comes out.

Posted under Football

The Board.

Moved to Committed:

Moved from Committed:
MN WR Bryce McNeal. Decommitted Monday night.

Added:
SC S Devonte Holloman. The former Michigan target has decommitted from Clemson. Potential visits include Michigan.
TX S Craig Loston. Also a Clemson decommit. Michigan was in on him early, but they may not be a player anymore. He’ll get a little time on the board until we can figure out if he’s a viable target.

New Information:
MI DT William Campbell. He’s set his visits. Sam Webb reveals what they shall be.
LA DT Commit DeQuinta Jones. He’s looking around a little bit. Might it result in a decommitment?
AZ DE Craig Roh. His game this Friday will be broadcast over the internet. You can find it at aia365.com. Just as a disclaimer, I couldn’t gt this site to work properly during the week, so don’t get your hopes too high.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. Visiting PSU for the Michigan game this weekend.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. He has trimmed to 15; Michigan is in.

Removed:

Etc.:
A sort of state-of-the-recruiting class statement from Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press.
Not on the board because he’s technically still committed to Florida, but Nu’Keese Richardson still intends to visit for the Michigan State game next week.

Analysis:

Posted under Football

So, Kevin Newsome appears to be out. Aside from losing a highly-rated player from the class of 2009, how will this affect the Michigan Wolverines?
At quarterback, Michigan is now in search of a replacement for one of its best players in the class. Thankfully, the coaches seemed to have some idea that this decommitment was possible, and even likely, as they continued pursuing a pair of highly-touted passers as contingency plans. While neither Tate Forcier nor Eugene Smith has the high upside that Newsome does, Forcier might actually be ready to play sooner, having had a private quarterback coach for a number of years. Despite Michigan’s class being seemingly full, Forcier consistently named the Wolverines among his top choices. Now that there is an opening, will Forcier jump at the opportunity, or be insulted that he was a backup plan? We might see shortly after Forcier’s recently-confirmed August 30th official visit to Michigan (for the Utah game).

Speaking of Forcier being a backup plan, this may be a slight misrepresentation of the facts. Of course, Kevin Newsome was Michigan’s #1 quarterback target. However, after Newsome’s commitment, Forcier and Shavodrick Beaver seemed to each know that the first to commit to Michigan would be the second signal-caller in the class. When Beaver was ready first, two players who were tied for #2 suddenly changed from an even race to a bird-in-hand/bird-in-bush comparison, where Beaver was given the benefit of the doubt over Forcier. So, while neither was the number one quarterback, both were in Michigan’s top 3 (of course, after Russel Shepard became unavailable) from the get-go.

What else does this mean for Michigan? While Newsome had good relationships with some of Michigan’s other commits, namely Bryce McNeal, these relationships clearly weren’t strong enough to convince Newsome to stick with Michigan, so I would be surprised if they were strong enough to convince anyone else to jump ship. McNeal also has a strong relationship with seemingly rock-solid Shavodrick Beaver, . If anything, his relationship with Newsome might help pull Kevin back into the fold (though I think this is unlikely either way).

Overall, the Michigan recruiting class will depend heavily on whether the team has success on the field in 2008. If it is an ugly year on the field, a few guys may look elsewhere, and the class could go downhill. however, losing one recruit in August (while there is still time to recover) does not a disaster make.

Editor’s note: I’m not sure if the childhood picture is of Tate or Chris, but the point remains that the Forciers love Michigan.

Posted under Recruiting