Projected Depth Chart

Offensive Line
We’ve all heard the facts: four starters are gone, including the NFL’s number one overall pick, a multi-year starter next to him, a Michigan legacy who transferred to Ohio State, and a guy who was never in good enough shape. The lone returning starter is Stephen Schilling at right tackle. The redshirt sophomore started every game last year, and accounts for 13 of the entire squad’s 16 career starts. The other positions are mostly up for grabs, but redshirt junior Mark Ortmann will probably man the other tackle spot. On the inside, redshirt junior Cory Zirbel, redshirt sophomore David Moosman, redshirt junior Tim McAvoy, and redshirt freshman David Molk will compete for the final three spots. Moosman has the upper hand at center, with Zirbel likely at one of the guard spots. Several other players will provide depth, including 6 freshmen.

Analysis
This may be the hardest-hit unit on the team aside from quarterback. Schillling is probably the best athlete on the offensive line, and Molk has tons of potential on the inside, likely as a future center. Ortmann is a classical big left tackle, and it remains to be seen if he has the athleticism for the spread system. The same could be said for most of the players along the interior as well, who were recruited to Michigan’s old power run game. If the offensive line has time to gel, it shouldn’t be a catastrophe, but until we see them accomplish something on the field, they remain the biggest question mark.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

New Information:
FL TE Orson Charles. He loved his Miami visit, and Georgia appears to be the only other school under serious consideration. He is teetering dangerously close to removal.
PA WR Todd Thomas. Pitt leads. He is also fairly close to removal.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. One local media video piece. Two local media video pieces.
GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore. Knows where he is taking all official visits (Michigan is one).
OK CB Gabe Lynn. Still no favorite.

Etc.:
Want to see Pahokee play in person (and likely Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne commit)? There are tickets available. Bastrop (DE commit DeQuinta Jones, WR target Rueben Randle) will have a game on the ESPN family of networks. Much annoyance to the abundance of articles talking exactly how many games are going to be on ESPN without saying which games. In case you’re curious, Western Branch is figuring what to do without Newsome. According to Sam Webb, Michigan may not be out of it for Oku. I’ll leave him off the board for now.

Posted under Recruiting

Action since last rankings:
7-25-08 Indiana gains commitment from Colin Rodkey
8-3-08 Iowa gains commitment from Keenan Davis. Michigan State gains commitment from Dan France.
8-5-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Brian Smith.
8-7-08 Illinois gains commitment from Bud Golden.
I also finally bit the bullet and moved to Rivals’s (superior?) rankings. Next week I’ll put all the commits back in star order.

New Rankings:

Down: Simon, Fellows (from 5), Carter (from 4). Up: Fields, Clarke, McDougald (from 3).

Down: Newsome (from 5), Jones (from 4). Up: Gallon, Schofield, Toussaint (from 3)

Down: Watt (from 5), Calabrese (from 4), Golic (from 3) Up: Fox, Martin (from 3), Tausch (from 1).

Up: Barrent, Maxwell, Spencer, Treadwell (from 3), Klatt, Reynolds, Fowler, Hoebing (from 1).

Down: Shrive (from 5), Arcidiacono (from 4), Drake, Dukes (from 3) Up: Kuntz, Figueroa (from 1).

Down: Carter (from 4), Hull (from 3). Up: Thrash, Fuller (from 1)

Up: Harris (from 3), Borland, Frederick (from 1). Down:

Up: Lipscomb (from 3) Stephens, Keise (from 2), Michel, Orseske, Rengel (from 1). Down: Alipate (from 4).

Up: Barnett, Carr, Zachery (from 2), Ewald (from 1). Down: Kiel (from 3). Not on rivals commit list: Keyt.

Up: Rogers (from 2), Clark (from 1).

Up: Trumpy, Battle, Moulton (from 1)

Down: Henry (from 3), Cooke (from 4). Up: Aristide, Bush (from 1).

Posted under Recruiting

New Information:
CS DE Chris Bonds. Top 6 (Michigan is oviously in it, considering they have secured a visit).
AL CB Dre Kirkpatrick. Takes in an Alabama practice.
GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore. Old, but super fluffy to a hilarious degree.
FL RB Vincent Smith. Video fluff.
MS DB Dennis Thames. He will be on display at some county fair or something.

Removed:
OK RB David Oku. The 2009 Noel Devine has dropped Michigan in an effort to get to a decision faster.
FL WR Rontavious Wooten. Will choose between two non-Michigan schools.

Etc.:
Sam Webb talks defensive end recruiting (audio). Cass Tech is going spread this year. It couldn’t be any worse than their offense was against OLSM when I saw them play last year. The ESPN 150 was released. Relevant persons:
Commits
65. Bryce McNeal (82)
91. Isaiah Bell (81)
147. Kevin Newsome (80)
Targets
5. Dre Kirkpatrick (90)
9. Jelani Jenkins (86)
10. Rueben Randle (86)
21. Shaquelle Evans (84)
22. Sam Montgomery (84)
25. Darius Winston (84)
38. Darren Myles (83)
43. Branden Smith (83)
48. Morgan Moses (83)
67. Craig Drummond (82)
77. Gabe Lynn (82)
78. Marcus Hall (82)
86. Craig Roh (82)
88. Donavan Tate (82)
123. David Oku (81)
132. Eugene Smith (81)
140. Chris Bonds (81)
141. Tate Forcier (81)

It’s utterly ridiculous that Will Campbell is not even in the 150, seeing as how he’s a no-brainer 5-star to both of the other sites, and ESPN spoke breathlessly about him following the Penn State Nike Combine. Just another hit to ESPN’s recruiting credibility (as though they needed one). Their reasoning:

Dominating the combine circuit without pads during one-on-one drills (geared toward the defense) does not give an accurate description of a DT’s ability to truly play the position. When comparing Campbell against the 10 DT’s that made the 150, we felt he wasn’t in the same class talent-wise. He didn’t display the ability to be as explosive as the DT’s above him.

If you’re looking for which idiot at ESPN to complain about, this was said by one Billy Tucker (side note: Campbell’s explosiveness is one of his greatest strengths, besides natural size, of course).

Analysis:
Oku’s removal is sad, but maybe warranted considering the thousands of RBs Michigan has recruited. Same goes for Wooten and slots. Other than those two guys, not a ton of action this week. In the next couple updates, I may start removing prospects that are highly unlikely to end up at Michigan (I’m lookin’ at you, Hersey Jackson).

Posted under Recruiting

Projected Depth Chart

Wide Receivers and Slots
Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington both left to ply their trade in the NFL, leaving Michigan with a very young wide receiver group. Junior Greg Mathews is the most experienced of the bunch, and is a near-lock to be a starter. Sophomores Junior Hemingway and Toney Clemons look to get a lot of playing time as well, with Clemons playing on the outside or in the slot. 4th-year junior LaTerryal Savoy will probably be a depth player. Freshmen should play a significant role in the receiving corps as well. Early enrollee Daryll Stonum may be the most physically gifted wideout on the team, though fellow freshman Roy Roundtree is expected to redshirt. In the slot, freshmen Martavious Odoms, Terrence Robinson, and Michael Shaw will likely contribute.

Stats

Analysis
Stonum is likely the team’s best deep threat, whereas Greg Mathews is a possession-type player. Junior Hemingway and Toney Clemons have speed, and Clemons has very good size, too – he may have put on enough weight in the spring and summer to become a super-athletic tight end. Despite his size, Clemons also has the agility to play in the slot, showing off what a fantastic physical specimen he is. Savoy is a possession receiver, and should only get a few catches all year, unless he has improved drastically in the offseason. In the slot, Odoms and Robinson are both tiny guys with speed to burn and good moves as well. Shaw has a little more size, and may play a slot/RB split duty. He has very good speed as well, and even if he isn’t used in the slot, he will be a good receiver out of the backfield. Those whining about Rodriguez’s continuing to recruit wide receivers need only realize that he intends to play with several of them on every play, and look at the thin depth chart.

Tight Ends
At tight end, redshirt junior Carson Butler and redshirt senior Mike Massey are expected to start. Sophomore Martell Webb, redshirt freshman Steve Watson, and freshmen Kevin Koger and Brandon Moore are behind them. There are more tight ends on this team than you can shake a stick at. Carson Butler will likely get the lion’s share of starting snaps. Andre Criswell has moved to the defensive line after playing tight end in 2007.

Stats

Analysis
Butler is an athletic tight end, but is prone to mental mistakes like false starts and holding. Massey is the classic Michigan tight end, and is a capable if not exceptional receiver. He has been plagued with injuries throughout his career, and may exceed expectations if he can stay healthy. Webb is a similar athlete to Butler, whereas Steve Watson is more of the classic Michigan TE. It will be interesting to see if he can find a good place on this team. Of the two freshmen, Koger is more ready to play, but his services might be needed on the defensive side of the ball as well, which remains to be seen.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

Projected Depth Chart

QBs
Uh, crap. Both players who threw any meaningful passes last year are gone, Chad Henne (the four-year starter) to the NFL and Ryan Mallett (the ex-heir-apparent) to Arkansas. The cupboard isn’t entirely bare, but it’s damn close. Steven Threet, a redshirt freshman who sat out last year after transferring from Georgia Tech, was a four-star recruit in 2007, but isn’t the mobile player that Rich Rodriguez would like in his spread. Walkon Nick Sheridan is more athletic, but a worse passer. Incoming freshman Justin Feagin is expected to get some playing time as the dual-threat that Rich Rodriguez desires. Redshirt sophomore David Cone… at least he’ll leave Michigan with a good degree.

Stats

Analysis
Threet and Feagin had better be able to step up, otherwise Michigan’s offense might be in big trouble. Threet will be the passer of the two, and Feagin will be eased into the offense with running plays, and eventually work his way into the passing game. Sheridan will likely only be used as a contingency plan, and Cone doesn’t look to get any playing time. If spring was any indication, there needs to be a lot of improvement in this unit for success.

RBs
Four-year starter Mike Hart departs as Michigan’s all-time leading rusher. Stepping up, however, Michigan has a number of viable options. Redshirt junior Kevin Grady was the backup in 2005 and 2006, but was out last year with an ACL injury. He is also expected to be suspended for an indefinite period of time for a July DUI arrest. True juniors Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were the backups last year, and filled in when Hart was out. Redshirt freshman Avery Horn is a speedy option, though he might not have the moves to be a true tailback. Incoming freshmen Sam McGuffie and Mike cox will challenge for playing time. The fullback will either be redshirt sophomore Mark Moundros or true sophomore Vince Helmuth.

Stats

Analysis
Grady is the most powerful runner of the three, though he has problems fumbling in the past. He hasn’t shown the vision that was expected of him coming out of high school. Brandon Minor definitely loks the part of a D-I football player, and his imposing figure is an accurate indicator of his strong running style. He doesn’t have the best speed, but he runs with power. Carlos Brown is the speedster of the proven players, though his vision has been criticized in the past. He has taken snaps at quarterback as well, and may be the recipient of a direct snap or two. Horn is fast, but doesn’t really have moves or vision, and is best when he gets the ball in space and has to do little other than run fast in a straight line. Sam McGuffie’s internet fame speaks for itself, and Cox seems to be in the mold of Brandon Minor. Helmuth is the more athletic fullback, and is more likely to be a “runaway beer truck,” but Moundros picked up the offense better in the spring and may get the starting nod.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

Michigan team preview starts tomorrow. while you wait, peruse these links:

• In case you live under a rock, MGoBlue is going to have a new video up each day until kickoff. See the archive here.
• Hoover Street Rag fills us in on the selections for MMB halftime shows this year. If the Team America song is not included in the “America Rocks” show, I will be sorely disappointed.
• FoxSports has published their “Toughest Places to Play” list. Michigan Stadium ranks #10. I still maintain that there should be two separate lists for home team winning percentage and for fan rabidity during games. (TFJ: Big House Blog).

Posted under Misc.

Shall we take a look at the two Big Ten teams that rotate off Michigan’s schedule in 2008? We shall. Obviously, these previews will be less in-depth than teams that I actually have a vested interest in caring about.

Indiana
Offense
QB Kellen Lewis returns to the team after a spring and summer spent earning his way back onto it. He is a true dual-threat, and was the leader of the IU offense last year. Lewis was second in the conference only to game-manager Todd Boeckman in pass efficiency. Marcus Thigpen trailed Lewis in rushing yards last year, but is expected to make his return to the starting position in IU’s backfield (backup Bryan Payton returns as well, after outgaining Thigpen on a ypc-basis). In the WR corps, Indiana loses brobdingnagian target James Hardy, who declared early for the NFL draft. Andrew Means and Ray Fisher will have to carry the load for a WR corps that was so dependent on one player last year. Along the front, true juniors Rodger Saffold and Pete Saxon return at left tackle and guard, respectively, but the other three positions must be replaced. Redshirt sophomore Alex Perry will step in at center, redshirt sophomore Cody Faulkner will play right guard, and fellow redshirt sophomore Mike Stark will play the final tackle position.

Defense
Jammie Kerlew returns at one end position, with Greg Middleton, the NCAA’s leading sacker in 2007, back at the other spot. Greg Brown returns at one tackle position, and the other will be filled by redshirt sophomore Deonte Mack. Will Patterson and Geno Johnson will return at their outside linebacker positions, but Adam McClurg is gone in the middle, and true junior Matt Mayberry will step in. The Hoosiers are fielding a pair of new starting corners, but they have experience, as 5th-year Chris Phillips will fill one spot, and redshirt junior Bruce Hampton will hold down the other. Redshirt juniors Nick Polk and Austin Thomas return as the starting safeties.

Outlook
After going bowling a year ago, the Hoosiers may be poised to make a return trip to a December game. January isn’t out of the question either, as they have an easy OOC schedule (2 MAC teams, reclassifying Western Kentucky, and 1-AA Murray State), and miss likely-dominant Ohio State and wildcard Michigan. This will be a good building year as well, seeing as how the Hoosiers return nearly everyone in 2009 (unless Middleton or Lewis goes pro or gets kicked off the team). We may be seeing Indiana take a step from a perennial bottom-feeder to a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

Iowa
Offense
Iowa didn’t have mich in the way of offense last year, and losing RB Albert Young, who will be replaced by a motley crew of white walkons named “Paki,” freshmen, and Teletubbies, certainly can’t help. What will help, however, is a more experienced Jake Christensen (often the lone bright spot for the UI offense last year), and the return of some white WR goodness in the form of Andy Brodell. Tight end Tony Moeaki will play an important role in the Iowa passing game as well. If injuries and rampant lawlessness don’t help a team’s short-term outlook, they do help develop young depth, which was the case for the Iowa WR corps last year, with Derrell Johson-Koulian, Trey Stross, and James Cleveland getting the majority of the passes. Center will be manned by either junior Rafael Eubanks or senior Rob Bruggeman, either of whom is a good option. The rest of the line could be manned by returning starters, like sophomore left tackle Bryan Bulaga (sliding out from guard), junior left guard Dan Doering, senior right guard Seth Olsen, and junior right tackle Kyle Calloway. Doering is being pushed by sophomore Julian Vandervelde for the starting nod.

Defense
Defensive tackle is the strong point of the Iowa defense, with Matt Kroul and Mitch “Unusual Punishment” King returning as multi-year starters for their final campaign. The defensive ends, however, are all new. Sophomores Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard will fill those positions, though thy both have nearly enough size to play on the inside as well (and one or both may do just that next year). AJ Edd, Dacody Coleman, and Jeff Tarpinian are the starting LBs. Replacing the Mikes Humpal and Klinkenborg (the team’s leading tacklers) will be a tough test on the linebacking corps. White-guy CB (how to make an Iowa preview: repeatedly point out the white guys at positions that white guys shouldn’t be playing) Adam “Sucky” Shada is gone, and the corners will be Bradley Fletcher and the winner of the Jordan Bernstine/Drew Gardner position battle. The safeties will be filled by senior Harold Dalton and sophomore Brett Greenwood.

Outlook
Despite having all sorts of trouble with injuries, not raping people, etc., Iowa managed to turn in a bowl-eligible 6-6 last year. If they can stay helathy this year, and find any sort of running game from Paki and the Fun Bunch, they could make the leap to an actual bowl in 2008.

Posted under Analysis

Ohio State Offense:
QBs
Todd Boeckman is firmly entrenched as the starter, but the depth behind him is dropping off. However, Ohio State fans aren’t exactly mourning the departures of Robbie Schoenhoft and Antonio Henton, as God Himself arrives on campus in the form of one Terrelle Pryor. Pryor may start out as the primary backup over Joe Bauserman, and run a second unit of offense that will take advantage of his ability to throw and run.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Boeckman is a game manager who will neither win nor lose games for his team. If the running game is consistent (and, barring catastrophe, it will be), Boeckman should be in position to not screw things up for the Buckeyes. I am actually surprised to see that he had positive rushing yardage last year, but I guess the OSU O-line was good enough to keep his jersey clean. Pryor will likely come in for the Bucks in a Tebow-like freshman role, but with a more speedy, less physical style.

RBs
True junior Chris Wells is the conference’s best chance for a Heisman trophy going into the season. Behind him is sophomore speedster Brandon Saine, who will get looks in a hybrid RB/slot role in OSU’s “pony” formation, also known as a pro-set, but I guess it’s far less cool without a fun nickname. Senior Maurice Wells is the primary backup to the tailback position. Dan Herron provides a bit of depth before he will likely have to step up next year.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Chris Wells is really, really good. He is a tough back with speed. Saine is a speedy back who provides a change of pace and the opportunity for big receptions out of the backfield. With a couple capable backups, the Buckeyes will have a dropoff if Wells goes down (obviously, he’s a Heisman candidate for a reason) but still have decent production.

Receivers:
The Brians Hartline and Robiskie, a redshirt junior and true senior, respectively, are the starters at wideout. Ray Small is the third receiver, but the true junior has had disciplinary issues this offseason, and it remains to be seen if he can get completely in line, or whether he will serve a suspension of some sort. Junior Jake Ballard and fifth-year senior Rory Nicol are the main tight ends for the Bucks.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Everyone relevant returns (with Small’s status still up in the air), and it gets to a point where it just isn’t fair. The top few wideouts had good yardage for each catch, and the tight ends were a little bleah, which is to be expected in a system that doesn’t throw to the tight end particularly often. This should be an area of strength for the Bucks, and they will look to build depth this year, as they will be losing several players.

Line:
Four linemen return (if we’re keeping score, that is EVERY offensive starter back except for one). At left tackle, true senior and recovering(?) alcoholic Alex Boone returns for his final go-round with the Bucks. The left guard will be true senior Steve Rehring. Redshirt junior Jim Cordle will start at center, and right guard will be manned by 5th-year senior Ben Person. At right tackle, the situation is a little unclear following the departure of Kirk Barton. True freshman Mike Adams was expected to be the starter, but he suffered a shoulder injury in spring practice, and is expected to miss at least the first couple games. Bryant Browning, a redshirt sophomore, is the new projected starter.

Analysis:
With four returning starters, most of them holding multiple years of some starting experience, the only possible weak link along the Buckeye offensive line is at right tackle. The uncertainty following Adams’s injury is a bit of relief for opposing fans, though not much. As long as Adams (should he return) and Browning are not completely incompetent, the Mike DeBord meme of “run left” should be an effective offensive strategy in Columbus. Boeckman’s blind side will be protected adequately, and without major mistakes, the OSU offensive line should approach impenetrable. Backups along the offensive line include top-ranked freshmen JB Shugarts and Mike Brewster.

Offensive Analysis:
Ingredients: Ohio State’s entire offense from last year. A new right tackle.
Procedure: Give one year additional experience. Prune right tackle, replacing with the new one. Unleash on the Big Ten. Profit.

Ohio State Defense:
Defensive Line:
First-rounder Vernon Gholston is gone, but the remainder of the line returns intact. True sophomore Cameron Heyward mans one of the end positions, and redshirt junior Todd Denlinger is one of the tackles. The other tackle position may have a bit of unrest, following redshirt junior Doug Worthington’s DUI/sketchy registration arrest. If he doesn’t return (which he almost certainly will be the Michigan game), 5th-year senior Nader Abdallah, with whom Worthington split starts last year, and redshirt sophomore Dexter Larimore look to get more playing time. The pass-rushing defensive end spot will likely be filled by redshirt junior Lawrence Wilson, with redshirt sophomore Thaddeus Gibson challenging.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Vernon Gholston was the primary pass-rusher last year, and provided a speedy threat that the Buckeyes didn’t really get from elsewhere. With him gone, there may be a little less pressure on the quarterback, but the run defense form the line should be about the same. One thing that surprised me was the lack of overall tackles from the D-line. However, the DL generally allowed the linebackers to get the tackles. With another year of experience, they should improve slightly, but it may be hard to replace a first-rounder like Gholston.

Linebackers:
James Laurinaitis is back for his true senior year, and Marcus Freeman is a redshirt senior who will flank him on the strong side. Larry Grant is gone from the weakside, and will be replaced by redshirt sophomore Ross Homan. Austin Spitler, Tyler Moeller, and Brian Rolle will play backup roles.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Laurinaitis was the Big Ten defensive player of the year and Bronko Nagurski award winner in 2007, and Freeman was a second-team all-conference. This unit will be strong from those two, but there is a big dropoff from the starters to the backups (as should be obvious with players of their caliber). Homan is unproven on the weakside, and he redshirted last year after playing a limited role as a true freshman. The linebackers were strong last year, and, barring injury, should continue to be this year.

Defensive Backs:
Ohio State returns all four starters in the secondary. Corner Malcolm Jenkins is a headliner. The senior has been first-team all-conference the past two years, and will be a high draft pick this spring. Redshirt junior Donald Washington starts at the other corner, having started all of last year and much of 2006. The safeties are led by junior Anderson Russell at the free position. The other spot is Kurt Coleman, who started each game last year as well. The primary backup at corner is Chimdi Chekwa. Jamario O’Neal is the first safety off the bench, though the backup situation at free safety will have to be worked out somewhat with the departure of Eugene Clifford.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Just like the other positions on defense, there is good strength among the starters, but little proven depth. The dropoff from the starters, therefore, should be fairly substantial. However, the starters in this situation are so good, that as long as there isn’t a problem with injuries, the secondary should be very strong.

Defensive Analysis:
Ohio State’s defense, as should be expected with all the starters they return, has a very strong first unit, but a dropoff to the backups. If the team doesn’t have a lot of injury problems, they should have a lot of success on that side of the ball again this year. With the pass rush of Gholston off to the New York Jets, the pass defense should be a little weaker this year, and there may be more blitzing from the linebackers and secondary. However, with the strength of the units, that may not leave as many passing lanes as one may expect.

Special Teams:
Seniors Ryan Pretorius and AJ Trapasso return for their senior seasons at kicker and punter, respectively. Somewhere in Ohio, there is a secret laboratory that pumps out good kickers.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Ohio State should be solid on special teams, like usual. For their final season, expect Pretorius and Trapasso to have another good year.

Overall Analysis:
Ohio State is full of seniors, and is probably one of the most experienced teams in the country. On top of that, factor in that they’ve played in the last two championship games, and there’s a good chance they make it back, and perhaps even win this time. After 2008, they lose nearly everyone, but this should be a fun year for Buckeye fans.

Posted under Analysis

I may be the last Big Ten Blogger to mention this, but ESPN has established a new Big Ten blog, primarily written by Adam Rittenberg.

So why do I mention it now? A wealth of information from today’s first practice of the fall. Enjoy.

Posted under Misc.