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Upon Further Review: Illinois

After several suggestions, I’ve decided to scrap the play-by-play aspect of the UFR feature, and just include the final stats from the game. The raw data is available in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup Time on Floor Score Differential
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 8:09(!) 16-17 -1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Gibson, Sims :58 0-3 -3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 3:17 7-7 0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:18 6-4 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:23 4-4 0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:55 5-4 +1
Total 20:00 38-39 -1

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup Time on Floor Score Differential
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:16 5-7 -2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:10 7-2 +5
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 1:47 4-5 -1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :27 2-0 +2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Gibson, Sims 2:56 1-4 -3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Gibson, Sims :35 2-1 +1
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Gibson, Sims 1:09 3-2 +1
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 1:12 0-2 -2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 4:22 8-2 +6
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :11 2-0 +2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims :10 2-0 +2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :45 0-0 0
Total 20:00 36-25 +11

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup Time on Floor Score Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:01 14-6 +8
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 14:48 25-28 -3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Gibson, Sims 3:54 1-7 -6
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 3:44 9-7 +2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:18 6-4 +2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Gibson, Sims :35 2-1 +1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 6:19 14-7 +7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Gibson, Sims 1:09 3-2 -5
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 1:12 0-2 -2
Total 40:00 74-64 +10

Individual players:

Manny Harris 15:58 (+12)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/4 2/2 2/2 2
Midrange 1/1
3-point 0/3 0/1

Much better than last game. He was looking to pass when he got into trouble. A couple of the misses in the lane (noted as a difficulty of 1) probably could have been called fouls.

Laval Lucas-Perry 7:38 (+14)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2 1/1 1
Midrange 0/1 0/1
3-point 0/1 0/3 3/3

LLP was hitting the open 3s on this day, but none of the covered ones. Most of his shots came from outside (as per usual).

Zack Novak 26:47 (+9)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 0/1 1
3-point 2/2 1/2

It seemed like Novak was doing a hell of a lot more than it looks like he did just by checking his shot chart. The importance of the baskets must have played a big role in that. He also made the midrange shot on which he was fouled.

DeShawn Sims 36:16 (+8)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2 1/1 0/1 0/1
Midrange 0/1
3-point 2/5 1/1

Sims, like Novak, seemed to be a lot more active than his chart would indicate. Both of the times he was blocked could have conceivably be called fouls.

Kelvin Grady 22:51 (+14)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 1
Midrange
3-point 0/2 1/2

Grady got much more time than he did in the previous game, and though he took a couple ill-advised shots, he was a catalyst for the rest of the offense (4 assists, 2 more assist opportunities missed). He also made the lane shot on which he was fouled.

Zack Gibson 16:53 (+3)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 1/1 2/2 1
Midrange
3-point 1/1

He played a lot without much in the way of scoring, but a couple of the dunks he had were huge in terms of momentum. He also had an enormous block.

David Merritt 14:48 (-3)
Location 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange
3-point

Not much usage for Dave. Interestingly, he was ONLY on the court with the “A-Team” (Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims).

Lee and Douglass also played extensive minutes without charting a shot attempt (Douglass 9:59, -11; Lee 4:02, -2). It’s become quite clear that the best lineup consists of Grady-Lucas-Perry-Harris-Novak-Sims. Gibson is hit-or-miss, but is probably overall the next best player to insert in the lineup (removing Novak). Without Grady at the point, the team was -10 (-3 with Merritt, and -7 with Douglass). Standard caveats about sample size, but that’s certainly notable.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

UFR Delay

So, now I understand why Brian takes a few days to do a football UFR. Basketball games are far less time-consuming, but it’s still ridiculously hard to finish them in any timely fashion.

The NC Central UFR will come tom orrow sometime, followed by the Wisconsin preview. The NCC UFR is also going to be a 1.1 version, rather than a 2.0. Apologies for the delay, and hopefully once I get into the groove of trying to hammer them out, I’ll be able to complete them in a much quicker manner.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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