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This Boat is Real. BURN IT!

Well, they certainly made it interesting for us, did they not?

After Terrence Oglesby was ejected, and Michigan was able to take and sustain a double-digit lead for much of the second half, it seemed like the first round was in the bag, and it was on to Oklahoma (Or Morgan State, as the case may be). However, Clemson suddenly drilled a few 3-pointers, Michigan forgot how to break the press, though they’d been doing it with relative ease all game, and this one turned into a nailbiter. I immediately went from “go for the triple-double, Manny” to “hey, just win, baby.”

Until Stu Douglass came down with that final rebound, this one wasn’t over. I still might not believe the outcome until I see the Wolverines take the court against Oklahoma on Saturday. The Michigan Wolverines, who have not been to the tourney since 1998, are in the second round. The Michigan Wolverines, who started 3 different freshmen and 2 different walkons during this year, are 1 win away from the Sweet Sixteen.

Oliver Purnell, 0-6. John Beilein, 5-1.

Queme los barcos.

Posted under Basketball

Preview: Clemson

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Tigers of Clemson at 7:10 PM tonight on CBS in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Clemson: National Ranks
Category Michigan Clemson Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Clemson eFG% D 114 129 M
Mich eFG% D v. Clemson eFG% 173 33 CC
Mich TO% v. Clemson Def TO% 16 16
Mich Def TO% v. Clemson TO% 130 154 M
Mich OReb% v. Clemson DReb% 290 302 M
Mich DReb% v. Clemson OReb% 188 22 CC
Mich FTR v. MSU Clemson FTR 329 82 CCC
Mich Opp FTR v. Clemson FTR 28 289 MMM
Mich AdjO v. Clemson AdjD 42 52 M
Mich AdjD v. Clemson AdjO 67 11 C

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Clemson is favored by just about every imaginable source handicapping the odds of the game, so there must be a little more to these teams than a fly-by tempo free analysis. Michigan leads 5-4 in terms of categories with an advantage, though the Tigers have more total letters, with multiple-letter advantages in 3 categories. Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is going to be important in this game, so the Wolverines hope to shoot more like they did against Iowa than they did against, say, Illinois. Michigan’s ability to hold onto the rock (about which more in a second) should also play a big role in this game, and both teams are stellar on their end of the deal in that regard. KenPom predicts a 74-69 Clemson win in a 66-possession game.

The Tigers are a good matchup for Michgian in one key way: they aren’t very big. Whereas Michigan has struggled going against tall teams like Illinois and Michigan State, the Tigers start a 6-9 center (the same height as DeShawn Sims), and won’t be significantly bigger than Michigan at any position other than the 4, where Zack Novak will have to keep Trevor Booker, the leading rebounder for Clemson, off the boards. Outside of the starters, only one player (Junior wing David Potter) gets truly significant playing time, so the Tigers aren’t partilcularly deep, either. How have the tigers found most of their success this year? Forcing the opponents into turnovers using a 1-2-1-1 full-court press on defense. Michigan will need to be able to hang onto the ball against that pressure, leading some to speculate Kelvin Grady might see more playing time than we’ve become accustomed to of late.

Clemson is certainly a better team than Michigan, and they had more success in a better conference. However, John Beilein and Oliver Purnell have built up reputations of sorts for themselves in the NCAA tournament: Beilein does well, Purnell does poorly. Still, making it to the dance was a huge accomplishment for this Michigan team, and asking them to win one as an underdog might be too much to ask. Clemson will probably take the win (though again, I’m shocked at how close these two teams’ tempo-free profiles actually were), and the Wolverines will have to wait until Year 3 of the John Beilein era for their first tournament win.

Posted under Basketball

Men’s Lacrosse Weekend Wrapup

Though it doesn’t boast Varsity status, the Michigan Men’s lacrosse team is one of the best club programs in the country, winning the 2008 MCLA National Championship, and having won seven CCLA Conference Championships this decade. So, yeah: they’re kind of a big deal. The Wolverines had their home opener (and another game) this past weekend, and yours truly was lucky enough to attend (as I will do for the entire home schedule).

ColoradoMichigan Lacrosse Star Trevor Yealy
The Buffaloes came into this game ranked #12 in the country (Michigan was #1), but Michigan was able to dispatch them with relative ease. The final score was 13-4, and the Wolverines got scores from 6 different players, led by Trevor Yealy’s 5. The second quarter was the difference for Michigan. Leading by a narrow margin of 3-2 after the first, they exploded for 6 more goals before halftime, and the game was never again in doubt. Backup goalie Mark Stone played for the entire 4th quarter, ceding only one goal. Also the Colorado goalie played the whole game in cutoff sweatpants.

Minnesota
This game was also out of reach for the opponent by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, but it ended much sooner than that, for all intents and purposes. David Rogers, Riley Kearns, and Kevin Zorovich all scored within 2 minutes of each other in the first period, and the floodgates were opened. The Wolverines led 10-1 at the half, and backup goalie Mark Stone got his second consecutive day of significant playing time. The bench was emptied in the second half, as 10 different Wolverines found the back of the net (Yealy again led the team in scoring, this time with 4). However, the Gophers did manage to get a bit of scoring on in the second half, as they had 4 tallies in the half (3 in the 4th quarter alone). When all was said and done, Michigan was walking off the field with a dominating 17-5 victory over a clearly overmatched opponent.

Up Next
Michigan again hits the turf in Oosterbaan this weekend, squaring off against conference foe (and cross-county rival) Eastern Michigan on Friday night at 8:00PM. The Vanderbilt game previously scheduled for Saturday night, so EMU will be your only chance to see the team in action this weekend. Admission is $6 ($3 for students), so come out and support a very strong Michigan club program.

Trevor Yealy Photo by Clark Bell for Michigan Men’s Lacrosse.

Posted under Other Sports

Ray Fisher Stadium

With the home opener only days away (Friday at 3:05), its as good as time as any to give those of you who haven’t been to Ray Fisher Stadium, a little history of Michigan’s home field.

The original baseball teams of 1866-1920 – why yes, baseball is the oldest sport on campus – played in the open field currently occupied by Yost, known as Regents Field. When construction began in 1921, the baseball team moved down the block, all of 150 feet or so, to the current site. Originally, the new park was called Ferry Field, the same as the football field, and required a 9-year old locker room to be demolished to fit the new field. Coach Ray Fisher took over the team the year or the move, a role he wouldn’t relinquish until 1958.

Image from

Ferry Field remained unchanged until 1948 when grandstands were installed. Previous to this, bleachers were occasionally brought over from the football field. The next major change came in 1967 when the field added an outfield fence. Previously the field was open and balls could roll on forever. Then current coach Moby Benedict chose the dimensions of 330 feet down each line, 375 to the power alleys, and 400 to straight away center, in the traditional symmetric style. The school also took the chance to rename the stadium, dedicating it to Coach Ray Fisher. With the inclusion of the fence, the capacity for games dropped from 30,000 to 3,000.

Ray Fisher Stadium saw few major updates over the next 40 years. The wooden bleachers were replaced by steel bleachers, wooden bleachers were added then subtracted from the outfield lines, and the outfield fence was replaced once. A scoreboard was added in the 80s, and the 90s saw the inclusion of coaches offices and training rooms added to the stadium press box. The stadium capacity increased to 4,000 in 1986, and has stayed at this level since.

The first major renovation since the steel bleachers just finished in time to start last season. With a hefty donation from alumnus and former owner of the Mets Fred Wilpon, both the baseball and softball fields received massive upgrades. [update: Wilpon is still the Mets’ owner, my mistake]  The $9 million donation lead to a brand new press box, new indoor batting cages, updated offices and training rooms, and brand new seating. The right field line has also been shortened to 325 feet with a 26 foot brick wall acting as a “Blue Monster.” The most important addition has to be the new and improved public restrooms.

Sources who care to read what I summarized:

Opening day is Friday. Excitement.

Posted under Baseball

BracketBrains

With Michigan in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 11 years, it’s finally time for breaking down the potential opponents, matchups, and out very own Wolverines for Match Madness. A great new tool that gives you the ability to do all this and more comes from BracketBrains, a cool site that has all sorts of comparisons and statistical analysis to help you figure out our team’s chances for success.

The unfortunate part of this site is that, like many of the best things in life, it isn’t free. There are several subscription options, ranging from $10-100, each with different access to their variety of features.

The pick for the Clemson game gives the Wolverines a 46.4% chance to win by one metric, and 41.0% chance by the other. Two predictions of the final score by BracketBrains have Michigan losing by scores of 74.6-71.0 and 73.4-68.4. Should they advance, the odds against Oklahoma are pretty dire, indeed.

It’s a really cool site if you’re willing to shell out the cash, and I encourage you to give it a look-see, even if you don’t end up buying.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

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Mid Week Closeout

Link Dump to start.  Unlike football where sports media is found everywhere, finding baseball coverage is a little bit harder.  So in order to spread the articles, I’ll be trying to bring them together when given the chance.  I’ll at least give you an interesting point from the article rather than just the title or source.

Michigan Insider Podcast was taped/released this morning.  Maloney touched on a few points in the interview.  The ones I found most interesting:

  • Our inexperience hurt us this last weekend.
  • Kevin Cislo is playing at a high level right now.  So is Chris Fetter.
  • We’re not doing a good job moving runners over.
  • Brandon Sinnery will continue to be a mid week starter to build his experience, could make the jump to the weekend.  He could have gone longer last night, but we wanted to get guys work.
  • “We don’t have a solidified #2 or #3.”  We need someone to step up.
  • Mike Wilson may get the start this Sunday.  He’s not back at his 2007 form, but is moving in that direction.

He basically just summarized most of what we already know.  Pitching has been inconsistent and Cislo has played well lately.  I’m interested to see how Mike Wilson does in the start.  IPFW should be a good starting point, and Iowa the week after isn’t playing that well of late either.

Posted under Baseball

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Mid Week Recap: EMU

EMU Overview

Box Score R H E
Michigan 0 0 8 0 1 0 0 2 0 11 11 3
EMU 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 6 0

W – Brandon Sinnery (1-0)   L – Glover (1-2)

Hitting

Kevin Cislo,
Image from mgoblue.com

Hurray for not being shut out!  Michigan bounced back from the slow weekend with a parade of hits in the third inning, lead by Kevin Cislo.  Cislo went 3/5 in the game with 3 runs and 2 RBIs.  In the third inning alone, he lead off with a double, stole third, scored a run, hit another double to plate 2 RBIs, and then scored again.  That’s one super productive inning.

Speaking of that inning, the team scored 8 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks.  Two runners advanced on balks, and two runners advanced on wild pitches.  Everything was going right for the Wolverines as they batted 11 in the frame.

Hitting was contagious as every starter except Alan Oaks had a hit in the game.  Speaking of starters, one name you won’t see in today’s starting lineup was Justin Lorenz.  Urban got the start at third, and Oaks in right field.  I’m not certain, but this may be a regular thing for a little while.  Lorenz hasn’t produced to the means we need him to.  The interesting part of this is if Oaks produces either.  In his two starts, he has yet to register a hit.  I like the move myself.  Oaks has a better history and more experience on his side.  I imagine he’ll find his swing pretty soon.   It’s something to keep an eye on as the we enter the conference season.

Pitching

Something else to keep an eye on is Brandon Sinnery and a chance at the weekend rotation.  The freshman had a fairly solid start – or great start if you compare him to anyone lately not named Fetter – against the Eagles.  Sinnery lasted 5 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts.  I’ll take that against most teams.

The bullpen also looked considerably better.  Wilson had his second solid appearance, giving up an unearned run.  Cislo had a throwing error on a fielders choice trying to throw to second base.  Without radio, I’m not sure what happened, but a run scored on the play.

Burgoon threw a scoreless eighth, allowing a single up the middle, but striking out two.  Mike Dufek finished the game with three strikeouts and a walk in the 9th inning.  This was a much needed confidence booster for both pitchers.

Notable Stars

  • Kevin Cislo – 3/5  2 RBI, 3 R,  2 2B, SB
  • Ryan LaMarre – 2/4  RBI, R, BB, SB
  • Anthony Toth – 1/2  RBI, 2 R, BB
  • Brandon Sinnery –  5 IP, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Team Base Running – 4/4 in steals
  • Team LOB – only 5 left on base

Notable Goats

  • Kevin Cislo – His error lead to a run

Thoughts

Having not seen or heard the game, but only having the box score and recap, I’m just as clueless as most of you as to how the game actually went.  If someone miraculously made it to the game, drop a comment.

Not in the Polls

Poll Current LW
RPI (3/17/09) 134 106
NCBWA NR* 25
Collegiate Baseball NR 28
BaseballAmerica NR NR
Ping!Baseball NR NR
Rivals NR NR
USA Today/ESPN 42* 28*

Surprise! Not really.  Michigan shows up in the receiving votes of two polls (NCBWA and Coaches), but is completely out of the Collegiate Baseball News.  No surprise there.  I’d estimate that the only reason we’re receiving votes still is due to writers or coaches not knowing what’s going on with the team.  No different than any of the other major sport polls.  RPI won’t make any jumps upward this weekend unless everyone above us and directly below us all get swept.  EMU and IPFW are in the 260-270 range of RPI right now.  They don’t really help the strength of schedule.

Minnesota shows up in BA (other receiving votes in NCBWA, and even got consideration in Rivals(!!!)), Ohio State in NCBWA and Collegiate, Illinois received votes in NCBWA. All three received votes in the coaches poll, including Illinois at #26, Ohio State #35, and Minnesota #43. Minnesota getting an honorable mention by Rivals is pretty surprising as Rivals usually doesn’t award northern teams much credit. Even if we would have swept Arizona in dominating fashion, we just might have gotten credit. Minnesota took two of three from highly ranked TCU this weekend, bumping their RPI to #17.

Coach Maloney Interviews

Coach Maloney does a weekly interview on WTKA 1050 am in Ann Arbor for the Michigan Insider radio show Wednesday mornings. I just found out about the podcast last week, so I thought I’d share it with the baseball followers we’ve got here.

Maloney also had a one-on-one interview with collegebaseballtoday.com’s Eric Sorenson this weekend in Arizona. I’ll point you over there for the full interview, but here’s a answer I found pretty interesting:

Well, as I said, we lost so many guys and we couldn’t replenish ourselves from a recruiting standpoint because we couldn’t use that money. So we did the best that we could and got some good guys, but they’re young. What we’re doing now is playing a lot of walk-on guys who have been in the system for a while. They’re actually really good college players and they’re doing a great job. They’re hungry. […]

So when I knew we were losing some of our top players last year I knew I had to replenish them. So how was I going to do this? I’ve had to develop them over the course of time and keep them believing they’re going to have an opportunity at some point.

Pretty interesting stuff there.  Coach talks a lot about how most of his budget goes to travel rather than recruiting or scholarships.

Home Opener Friday

IPFW makes it into town on Friday for a 3pm start time. The weather is supposed to be sunny, but cold temperatures start to roll in on Thursday. Game time temperatures will be in the 40s. Sunday is currently forecasts to be rainy as well. Such is baseball weather in March for the Wolverines.

Make sure you grab your blankets, ski masks, pocket warmers, blankets, coats, flasks, and blankets to stay warm at the game. If you’re smart, you’ll sit right behind the dugouts as they generally have space heaters running full blast that spill over to the front row.

Posted under Baseball

Recruiting Update 3-16-09

Don’t forget to check out all the information over time on the 2010 Recruiting Board.

Moved to Committed:
MI QB Devin Gardner. WOOOOO! The somewhat complicated story seems to be that he’s committed to Michigan, but won’t officially tell the media until his basketball season ends. So, he is committed, but the reason Rivals doesn’t list him on the commit list is his reluctance to give them an interview prior to the end of his hoops season.
OH Ath/WR DJ Williamson. More WOOOO!
OH LB Antonio Kinard. WOOOO round 3!

Removed:
FL RB Tiger Powell. Committed to South Florida.
TX CB Adrian White. Committed to Texas.

TX DE Reggie Wilson has set a decision timeline for himself: He’ll commit to a school before the end of the month. His “Final 3” consists of Texas, Oklahoma, and TCU, but I’ll leave him on the board a little longer, until there’s confirmation from another source (not that I’m doubting the credibility of BON, but best to hear it from the horse’s mouth).

Michigan 2010 QB target Stephen Morris Miami PaceFL QB Stephen Morris, one of the stars of Michigan’s 2008 summer camp, is making a name for himself. At least, there’s definitely a PR firm pumping out releases about him. Morris has also started to draw the attention of a familiar face to Michigan fans:

“I just received a couple of letters from Coach Loeffler, who is the new QB coach at Florida, and he really wants me to come up and visit. It’s funny how things turn out, he was the coach who first convinced me to come up to the University of Michigan for their football camp a couple of years ago – and we had a great time there.”

Funny how things turn out, indeed. From the sounds of it, he was more interested in Michigan than in Loeffler after his visit to Ann Arbor, but a coach with whom he’s established a relationship should certainly be considered a threat. There’s also relevant recruiting information in the article:

His list of top schools includes: (in alphabetical order) Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

The Florida attention is likely to shake that list up a bit.

TX LB Caleb Lavey is the #5 linebacker in the Dallas/Fort Worth area for the class of 2010. His measurables aren’t what’s keeping him that low, however: It’s the fact that he plays in a lower division against lesser competition.

Scouting report on MI RB Austin White. The “unsubstantiated rumor” that he committed to Michigan on Junior Day doesn’t exist, even in unsubstantiated form, anywhere other than this site to my knowledge. Let me know if I’m mistaken.

It might be in the best interest of FL LB Jeff Luc to get out of Miami, according to his brother. For the record, said brother went to Florida State, so this isn’t exactly an advocate for going to a school like Michigan.

FL RB Corvin Lamb has said it in no uncertain terms: he wants to go to Florida. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gave the Gators a commitment before the spring is over.

Ohio State and Michigan State, in that order, lead for OH DE Darryl Baldwin. Michigan was on him early in the process, so expect them to turn up the heat if they really want him.

For those who fear that FL S Marvin Robinson is no longer likely to end up in Ann Arbor, take heart: he recently named the Wolverines his #1 school. An early commitment still doesn’t look likely, but at least the Wolverines aren’t playing catch-up.

Michigan has offered OH OL Skyler Schofner, and also FL DE BJ Butler.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Happy St. Patty’s Day

Don't mess with his ironPosting will be light-ish tonight, but a new recruting update will be posted this afternoon. Also check out the preview of Eastern Michigan baseball posted earlier today..

Tim and I will be at Ashley’s by 5am. Wish us luck.

Posted under Blog News

Preview: EMU

Abbreviated edition due to short notice.  Make it out to the game if you can.  Michigan should take this one.  Directions from Union to their field via bus can be found here.  Now you have no excuse other than not wanting to be in Ypsilanti at night to keep you from the game.

from easternmichiganeaglesfans

from easternmichiganeaglesfans

Eastern Michigan
March 17, 2009 – 6pm
Oestrike Stadium
Ypsilanti, MI
Media: Live Stats*
Probable Starters: Michigan TBA vs Jordan Glover (1-1)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 108-54-2
Last Series/Game: April 2008, Michigan sweeps 2 midweek games 20-5 and 5-3

*stats are through EMU, not CSTV

Overview

Eastern Michigan comes into this game doing rather poorly. Eastern Michigan is currently on an 7 game losing streak, and is 3-13 overall. Boyd’s currently has them at 259 in RPI, but that doesn’t mean we should hold them too lightly–just ask Indiana.

Offense

The EMU hitting attack is lead by junior shortstop Jim Gulliver. Gulliver is currently hitting .361 with 15 runs scored, 6 doubles, and 2 triples, all team highs. He will be seen batting in the 3 hole for the Eagles.

Third baseman Zach Leonard will bat behind Gulliver in the clean up spot. The sophomore is batting .349 on the year with 10 RBIs. He is one of only two Eagles in double digit RBIs this season (as compared to Michigan’s 6). The other is catcher Andrew Marshall, who has been hitting in the 6 hole. Marshall is the team leader in RBIs with 11.

On the base paths, keep an eye on #2 Kyle Rhoad. The center fielder leads off for Eastern and is 7 for 7 for stolen bases this season. Rhoads is a meh hitter, only batting .286, but he does work counts well. He’s earned 11 walks and struck out 15 times.

Pitching

Pitching for the Eagles is Canadian Jordan Glover. The freshman righty has the second lowest ERA for any pitcher throwing at least 10 innings this season. In his 4 appearances (2 starts), he has gone 11 innings, allowing 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits, 8 walks, and 5 strikeouts.

Glover’s last appearance was one inning in relief walking one and striking out three at Dayton, so that sounds pretty solid. His last start was the win against Indiana where he threw 6 innings, allowing 7 runs, only three of which were earned. He walked 5 and struck out one in his first career win. I’d classify that as a solid start for a freshman.

His other start, his only other of the season came against then #12 Florida. He only lasted 3 innings giving up 6 earned runs on 8 hits, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts.

No one stands out as really good in the EMU bullpen currently. None of their numbers any dominating strikeout performers. The best ERA of any bullpen member is 4.05 by Kevin Wammes over 6 innings.

Outlook

I have to imagine Michigan will be looking to show some might after the last few days. I’ve got my reserves about how good Glover may or may not be. I’m hoping we can knock him out of the game early, but you never know with freshmen, much less home openers or mid-week match-ups. Anything can happen.

I’ll update this if I find out who is pitching for Michigan, but as of now its unannounced. I expect Sinnery just because Matt Miller threw a few more innings than he did this weekend. We’ll see.

Posted under Baseball